Maxman Posted November 16, 2008 Share Posted November 16, 2008 I didn't bet anything today. Winning $1,000 on the Jets Thursday seemed like enough for the week. The betus.com account was opened at 500 and now sits at just under 3 grand. Not too bad for just over half a season. I will screw it up I am sure but the ride so far has been fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonEJet Posted November 16, 2008 Share Posted November 16, 2008 Yeah. I just took it. I got it at 48.5 though. I was going to take it early at 47.5 or 48 but wanted to see how my early games did first. Why did Seattle go for 2 earlier??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 16, 2008 Share Posted November 16, 2008 I didn't bet anything today. Winning $1,000 on the Jets Thursday seemed like enough for the week. The betus.com account was opened at 500 and now sits at just under 3 grand. Not too bad for just over half a season. I will screw it up I am sure but the ride so far has been fun. Should've rolled with the money line +150 to +135, depending on when you wagered.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonEJet Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 That is ****ing bull**** what happenned in the Steelers game.. I had 2 Td's taken off the baord, the last 1 was complete bull****.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 ugh, I didn't do well today ATS. That last play in the Steelers game... there was no forward pass. That could've been the most ridiculous backdoor cover of all time. Want to guess how much Polamalu had on the Steelers minus the points? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 ugh, I didn't do well today ATS. That last play in the Steelers game... there was no forward pass. That should've been the most ridiculous backdoor cover of all time. Want to guess how much Polamalu had on the Steelers minus the points? Fixed... Damn I'm fuming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 I'll take the Redskins tonight at +3. bodog has it at +3 and I'm kind of surprised. Could go either way, but why not take the field goal at home against a team that has really played poorly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 17, 2008 Author Share Posted November 17, 2008 Official bets Falcons -6.5 Texans +8 SF -6.5 Steelers -5 oakland +10 3-2 this week/Now 19-8 on the season. Damn the Steelers game. For the future, I will be playing EVERY double digit dog regardless of who's playing. Hope everyones day was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 17, 2008 Author Share Posted November 17, 2008 That is ****ing bull**** what happenned in the Steelers game.. I had 2 Td's taken off the baord, the last 1 was complete bull****.. I actually thought I had won the game until a few minutes ago--I changed the channel right after he crossed the goalline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 I actually thought I had won the game until a few minutes ago--I changed the channel right after he crossed the goalline. Worst part for me is that I took my aggression out on a Dallas /Over parlay and extended my losses. I had no intention of betting that game.. :blowup: :blowup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 Man I'm still fuming, that bull**** reversed TD changed a win for the day into a decent sized loss for the day. I have a big problem controlling myself on tilt... always been my Achilles heal with gambling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 17, 2008 Author Share Posted November 17, 2008 Worst part for me is that I took my aggression out on a Dallas /Over parlay and extended my losses. I had no intention of betting that game.. :blowup: :blowup: ha, lets make it even worse and bet on next weeks games the second they come out. Ill be doing a few early plays each week in order to get the best line/juice if I think the line will move. This week early signs are that the Miami will be favored by 2.5...Ill be jumping on the Patriots immedietly and buy it up to 3 if possible before the line goes to 1/pick em by the ending of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 ha, lets make it even worse and bet on next weeks games the second they come out. Ill be doing a few early plays each week in order to get the best line/juice if I think the line will move. This week early signs are that the Miami will be favored by 2.5...Ill be jumping on the Patriots immedietly and buy it up to 3 if possible before the line goes to 1/pick em by the ending of the week. Miami by 2.5 kind of surprised.. Almost seems like a trap game unless ithe line moves the way you think it will.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 Just checked and the Jets have jumped from +5 to +6 real early at pinnacle.. No good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 ha, lets make it even worse and bet on next weeks games the second they come out. Ill be doing a few early plays each week in order to get the best line/juice if I think the line will move. This week early signs are that the Miami will be favored by 2.5...Ill be jumping on the Patriots immedietly and buy it up to 3 if possible before the line goes to 1/pick em by the ending of the week. Good news to those who are rooting fo the Pats. Pinnacle has already moved the line down to -1 Hope you got your play in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slowmoe57 Posted November 17, 2008 Share Posted November 17, 2008 2-1 for me lost the lock 7-2 the last 3 weeks BUT 17-16 OVERALL AND 6-5 on my locks liking Cle p5.5 and the over tonight -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonEJet Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Browns vs Bills 40.5 UNDER for $4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Crap... Early on it looks like RLM against the Jets. From my memory it went in our favor the buffalo game and against us the Raiders game. I think the numbers are going to show we should be a 7 pt dog as well. Smart play is to take the Titans and not have all your eggs in one basket.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 20, 2008 Author Share Posted November 20, 2008 Crap... Early on it looks like RLM against the Jets. From my memory it went in our favor the buffalo game and against us the Raiders game. I think the numbers are going to show we should be a 7 pt dog as well. Smart play is to take the Titans and not have all your eggs in one basket.. Oh yea, For me Im taking the Titans or no one in this game. Right now Im just hoping the line doesnt go up which would be a full blown RLM play(If it gets up to one) ----------------------------------------------------------- Anyway, Tonight Bengals + 11.5 Thou shall not bet against any double digit dog this season. Yes, maybe im late to the party--But Ill be playing this the rest of the season unless It suddenly stops hitting at all. College plays tomm, and NFL leans probably later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 small lean on Under 35 tonight. Cincinnati's offense is one of the worst in the NFL and Pittsburgh has the best defense. The Steelers shouldn't have Roethlisberger throw too much with the shoulder still having problems. About 30 degrees in Pittsburgh with a ~20 degree wind chill. Winter weather advisory in effect. Snow accumulation between now and the morning is expected to reach around six inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 Oh yea, For me Im taking the Titans or no one in this game. Right now Im just hoping the line doesnt go up which would be a full blown RLM play(If it gets up to one) ----------------------------------------------------------- Anyway, Tonight Bengals + 11.5 Thou shall not bet against any double digit dog this season. Yes, maybe im late to the party--But Ill be playing this the rest of the season unless It suddenly stops hitting at all. Double digit dogs have gone 15-1 this year.. Have you looked into Prop betting at all? I've been having some success with FO's defense against receiver types... Last week I hit on Braylon Edwards +4.5 catches because I noticed Buff was #31 at defending the #1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 FO recently added more detail for that precisely because a lot of people were using it for fantasy. I've been using it for fantasy ever since they started posting it. http://footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/week-10-dvoa-ratings-3 I think Aaron mentions there the problem about using jhthe DVOA against certain kinds of receivers. Pretty sure he talked about it last season as well that it includes PI, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Double digit dogs have gone 15-1 this year.. Have you looked into Prop betting at all? I've been having some success with FO's defense against receiver types... Last week I hit on Braylon Edwards +4.5 catches because I noticed Buff was #31 at defending the #1 Genius...(about the props) After last week when it hit 15-1 I said to myself I will be on every Double Digit dog from here on in regardless unless it starts hitting some super low margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 FO recently added more detail for that precisely because a lot of people were using it for fantasy. I've been using it for fantasy ever since they started posting it. http://footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/week-10-dvoa-ratings-3 I think Aaron mentions there the problem about using jhthe DVOA against certain kinds of receivers. Pretty sure he talked about it last season as well that it includes PI, etc. Great addition. I got the info out here so we could have it in the thread for daily reading. The addition of the "undefeated watch" is just one of the new items at Football Outsiders this week. Even more important is the expansion of our weekly defense vs. receivers table. We know people use the defense vs. receivers table to help with fantasy matchups, and our own Bill Barnwell uses it each week in his ESPN fantasy matchups column. The problem? DVOA wasn't created to measure fantasy football value. The DVOA ratings measure value per play without telling us if a defense forces its opponents to alter their offensive game plan, avoiding or favoring certain receivers. They also measure certain defensive plays that don't mean anything from a fantasy football perspective, like interceptions. Starting this week, the defense vs. receivers table will also list average passes per game and average yards allowed per game against the five "receiver types." These numbers are adjusted for opponent strength. The Cardinals throw to their number-two receiver (Anquan Boldin) 34 percent more often than the average offense, and he gains an average of 1.8 yards per play more than the average number-two receiver. Therefore, if the Cardinals throw to Boldin eight times for 60 yards, it won't count as much against the defense as if would if that same defense played the Giants and Eli Manning threw to Amani Toomer eight times for 60 yards. With the new numbers, you can see certain places where a good DVOA does not mean that a defense shuts down a wide receiver for fantasy purposes A good example is Chicago, which ranks 13th in DVOA against number-one receivers. Most Tampa-2 style defenses tend to face more passes to the opposition's top receiver, and the Bears are a clear example. Their adjusted number is 12.3 passes per game -- second to Washington -- which ends up with 80 (adjusted) receiving yards allowed per game, fifth in the NFL. It turns out the Bears are a good matchup for your receiver, even if that receiver is going to be the target on a good number of incomplete passes. Here are some interesting tidbits from the first run of this table (all numbers are adjusted for opposing offenses): * Even though Washington faces more passes to WR1 than any other defense, the Redskins allow just 50 passing yards per game, below the NFL average. Only Tampa Bay and Carolina face fewer passes per game to the opposing WR2. * Minnesota, Philadelphia, and New Orleans all rank in the top six in DVOA against WR2 (yes, the Saints, really, not a misprint) but also all rank in the top six in passes per game to WR2. * On the flip side of that, St. Louis has the worst DVOA against WR3 but faces just 5.1 passes per game to "other" wide receivers, well below the NFL average of 7.3. * In general, the best teams face the most passes to WR3 because of opponents trying to come back late in games -- but Jacksonville is actually one of four teams that faces more than 10 passes per game to WR3. (The others are the Giants, Bears, and Steelers.) * When do you sit your studs? The defense allowing the fewest yards per game to opposing WR1 is Philadelphia, followed by Green Bay and -- a real surprise -- Houston. * Keep your tight ends away from the 49ers, who give up just 18 yards per game to tight ends. Play them against the Chargers, who give up a league-leading 83 yards per game to tight ends. They face an average of 11.2 passes per game to tight ends, two more than any other defense. * Cleveland may have a poor defense this season, but the Browns excel in one area: preventing success by running backs in the passing game. The Browns rank number one in DVOA against running backs, passes per game allowed to running backs, and receiving yards per game allowed to running backs. Do note that these defense vs. receivers numbers count pass interference, and the totals for "other wide receivers," "tight ends," and "running backs" include multiple players for each offense. (For example, that number gives you yards per game allowed to all tight ends, not just the other team's starting tight end.) These numbers also count Dallas Clark as a WR3, although I may change him to a tight end in future weeks now that we're running these numbers as well as DVOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonEJet Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 I took Tech for -3 (-120) for $8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 21, 2008 Share Posted November 21, 2008 back to back weeks the refs screw me on a Steelers game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 College plays Indiana +10.5 Washington State +7 Theres atleast 5 more that are just .5 away from being plays, So Ill probably follow this up tomm night. I play anything thats more then 60-65 percent, with a RLM movement of 1 point.... ---------------------------------------- Patriots +2 (Big Play)-Whens the last time a team has beaten the patriots twice in one season? Got this one in early Houston +3--They are good against team number 1 receiver, Lewis sucks, Winslow is hurt, and Quinn is hurt. Kansas City +3--Boy did Buffalo disgust just about everyone in the world on monday. If your a hardcore gambler, your probably playing KC moneyline here. Titans -5.5--I think this is a game the Titans win by 7. Better offensive, and Defensive lines. Homefield, and one coach has been amazing in the 4th quater and knows how to adjust--The other one does the opposite. Lions +7.5--RLM play Ravens/Eagles under 40---Westbrook will be out, and I see both defenses punishing eachother. St Louis---+7.5---RLM play Raiders +9---RLM play Colts +3--Buy the .5 if needed....If LT was the same I would likely pick SD here... Giants -3--I want to pick the cardinals, as I love to watch them but how can anyone bet against the giants right now. An unusually large week probably bc of the RLM plays..... What are u guys going for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StillerPaul Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Giants -3--I want to pick the cardinals, as I love to watch them but how can anyone bet against the giants right now. Gonna be bold and take the Cards in that one. Think i'll also put cash on the Eagles/Ravens under 40. Not sure how much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 College plays Indiana +10.5 Washington State +7 Theres atleast 5 more that are just .5 away from being plays, So Ill probably follow this up tomm night. I play anything thats more then 60-65 percent, with a RLM movement of 1 point.... ---------------------------------------- Patriots +2 (Big Play)-Whens the last time a team has beaten the patriots twice in one season? Got this one in early Houston +3--They are good against team number 1 receiver, Lewis sucks, Winslow is hurt, and Quinn is hurt. Kansas City +3--Boy did Buffalo disgust just about everyone in the world on monday. If your a hardcore gambler, your probably playing KC moneyline here. Titans -5.5--I think this is a game the Titans win by 7. Better offensive, and Defensive lines. Homefield, and one coach has been amazing in the 4th quater and knows how to adjust--The other one does the opposite. Lions +7.5--RLM play Ravens/Eagles under 40---Westbrook will be out, and I see both defenses punishing eachother. St Louis---+7.5---RLM play Raiders +9---RLM play Colts +3--Buy the .5 if needed....If LT was the same I would likely pick SD here... Giants -3--I want to pick the cardinals, as I love to watch them but how can anyone bet against the giants right now. An unusually large week probably bc of the RLM plays..... What are u guys going for? I might blindly jump in on the college plays with you. Are you still keeping track of records on college RLM? I found these out on the internets somewhere this week and saved them locally, not sure how accurate they are but I'd assume their solid.. At Least 60% of Bets on Side, Reverse Line Move of at least 1 point League W L P Pct. Units NFL 2008 18 13 1 58.1% 2.83 NFL 2007 155 130 9 54.4% 18.62 NCAAF 2008 137 106 8 56.4% 17.51 NCAAF 2007 227 156 4 59.3% 49.49 NBA 2007-8 221 182 6 54.8% 18.89 NCAAB 2007-8 272 203 11 57.3% 42.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 back to back weeks the refs screw me on a Steelers game. ??????? You liked the under right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonEJet Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 College plays Indiana +10.5 Washington State +7 Washington State has made me so much $$$$$$ this year Worst team I have ever watched play football.....a high schoo team would have a shot to beat them Stay far away from that game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 I might blindly jump in on the college plays with you. Are you still keeping track of records on college RLM? I found these out on the internets somewhere this week and saved them locally, not sure how accurate they are but I'd assume their solid.. Since I started following them here they have been hitting atleast 70-80 percent, but its totally blind. I have no business betting on college football, as I really dont watch teams AT ALL(I watch players). I would probably use this as a tiebreaker/add on to if you already liked a team. There is a bunch more plays that could happen by gametime though, so keep checking the spreads up onto GT..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Here's something else I'm looking at.. Jets 1st halves: 175-95 Jets 2nd halves: 114-126 Titans 1st halves: 114-77 Titans 2nd halves: 130-54 Clearly Fisher is great at adjustments and Mangini stinks.. Also heard the other day that the Jets defense is #4 in the league in the first half, but #28 in the second half. TN's is flipped somewhat as the were around 10 (forget) in the first half, but #1 in the second half.. Halftime line is Jets +3 -110, +155 - could be a play here if this game follows the pattern, but I'm worried TN might jump on the Jets early at home.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Washington State has made me so much $$$$$$ this year Worst team I have ever watched play football.....a high schoo team would have a shot to beat them Stay far away from that game This is what Im talking about CTM---They have been on fire, but since Im really going in blind you should really use it just as a deciding factor/supplement the teams you already liked. Also hopefully by Gametime there will be 5 plays or so which will be in our factor, as 2 games is more of a toss up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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