Peyton Manning

[Kidhuman]

I got lucky enough to get the number one pick in my league and draftedPeyton Manning. Fat load of SH*T its doing me. He hasnt tossed a TD in two weeks. I mean come on already. He was tossing 4-6 a game last year. Get with it already. Stop thinking about home and play hte freakin game.

Rant over.

[BlackLabelJetsFan]

You should have taken Tomlinson.

Or Alexander.

Or Priest.

Never take a QB #1 overall.

In The Trenches: Indy Impostor?

Sep. 27, 2005

Michael Fabiano

Senior Fantasy Writer

Note to the impostor who has been wearing the Indianapolis Colts No. 18 uniform in the past three weeks:

Please bring Peyton Manning back.

Lost in all the talk about the struggles of Daunte Culpepper were Manning's mediocre 376 yards and two touchdowns in his first two starts. But after Daunte's 300-yard, three-touchdown performance in a 33-16 win over the New Orleans Saints, it's Manning who is now in the Fantasy Football pressure cooker.

The two-time NFL MVP and No. 1 overall selection in countless drafts failed to throw a single touchdown pass against the Cleveland Browns and their 29th-ranked pass defense in a 13-6 win on Sunday. Manning now has a combined two touchdowns in his first three starts (one more than RB LaDainian Tomlinson), hasn't thrown for a score in his past nine quarters and trails 21 quarterbacks in terms of touchdown passes.

Twenty-one.

That list includes five quarterbacks (Drew Bledsoe (6), Tim Rattay (5), Gus Frerotte (5), Trent Dilfer (4) and Brian Griese (4)) who weren't drafted in some leagues. Even Peyton's little brother Eli has been dominant in terms of statistical production.

So what gives in Indianapolis?

Well, the Colts have gone from an offensive juggernaut with a questionable defense to more of a run-based offense with a dominant defense. In their first three contests of '04, the Colts averaged 34 pass attempts, 29.6 carries and allowed 25 PPG. This season, the team has averaged 29 pass attempts, 32.3 carries and allowed 5.3 PPG.

That's not a misprint: The Colts defense has allowed an incredible 5.3 PPG and has been the force behind the team's 3-0 start. With such immense defensive success, it's no surprise the Colts have had a greater emphasis on the run, which has left Manning's stat lines looking more like those of a No. 3 quarterback than an athlete who threw for an NFL record 49 touchdowns one season ago.

Aside from an altered team emphasis from offense to defense, the fact that Manning isn't on pace to throw 40 touchdown passes shouldn't be a shock, simply because no quarterback has thrown for 40 scores in consecutive seasons.

None. Zero. Zip.

The two quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era to reach that total (Dan Marino, Kurt Warner) both experienced a significant decrease in production the next season. Marino, who threw 48 touchdown passes in 1984, could muster just 30 in 1985. Warner, who tossed 41 scores in 1999, threw 20 fewer in 2000.

The question owners are now faced with surrounds Manning's true value. Did last season's magic cause the Colts quarterback to be overrated in drafts? To find the answer to that question, we have to look inside the numbers.

Since consistent touchdown production is the most vital statistic in Fantasy Football, it makes sense to base Manning's value on how consistent (or inconsistent) he has been from 2001-2003 and compare those totals to those of another stud, future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Brett Favre. Like Favre, Manning didn't miss a regular-season start in that time-frame.

TD PASSES (2001-2003)

PLAYER 0-1 TDs 2 TDs 3+ TDs

Peyton Manning 24 14 10

Brett Favre 17 19 12

As the table above shows, Favre was the more reliable and productive quarterback (in terms of touchdown passes) from 2001-2003. He threw two-plus touchdowns in 65 percent of his starts while Manning threw for two-plus touchdowns in just 50 percent of his starts. Furthermore, Favre failed to throw for a score just twice in those 48 starts while Manning didn't throw for a score seven times over the same period.

When you consider that Manning was a first-round selection and Favre could have been had in Rounds 4-6, it appears the answer to the question -- "Was Manning overrated in drafts based on his unreal '04 totals?" -- appears to be yes. Sure, Manning still has a chance to throw 40 touchdown passes this season (he would need to average around three scores in his final 13 starts), but that's not likely based on four factors.

One, his percentage of three-plus-touchdown starts from 2001-03 is a mere 4.8 (10-of-48). Two, he didn't throw for a single touchdown against one of the league's worst pass defenses this past weekend, which somewhat eliminates the favorable opponent idea. Three, NFL defensive coordinators have learned how to better defend Manning. Four, the Colts are 3-0 and head coach Tony Dungy couldn't care less about Fantasy Football owners who want a greater level of production out of their quarterback.

Readers should not misconstrue the facts and stats here, because Manning was an absolute stud last season and will have his share of monster starts in '05. Much like Culpepper did against the Saints, the Colts quarterback will break out one of these weeks and ease all of our minds. In fact, Manning should be able to shred the Tennessee Titans and San Francisco 49ers in his next two starts and might be considered the league's most attractive starter at his position.

But what these numbers and the facts about Marino and Warner do seem to indicate is that Manning had a slim-to-none chance of duplicating the 4,557 yards and 49 touchdowns he threw for in '04. The same held true for Culpepper, who outscored Manning in countless leagues in '04 but also had a minimal chance to produce at the same enormous level as he did last season.

Those of us who own Culpepper know that all too well.

Owners who took Manning in the first round should either continue to start him or put him on the trade block in order to gauge his value on the open market. But unless he's injured or has a bye, Manning should not be reserved in most instances. After all, the investment made in him in drafts was too high to keep him on the bench.

The greater lesson learned here is that an owner's first-round focus should be on a featured back or either Randy Moss or Terrell Owens, because solid quarterbacks can still be had in the middle rounds. The success of Carson Palmer, Kerry Collins, Bledsoe and Ben Roethlisberger, none of whom were selected before Round 4 in most drafts, proves that fact without question.

[Smizzy]

You should have taken Tomlinson.

Or Alexander.

Or Priest.

Never take a QB #1 overall.

Depends on how they score Td's for QB's.

If they score them the same as rushing Td's ..then it's no brainer...Manning 40+ Td's will out score any player at any position. add in yards and this isn't a conversation.

If Rushing Td's are more...then drop him down a couple spots...not far.

[BlackLabelJetsFan]

Depends on how they score Td's for QB's.

If they score them the same as rushing Td's ..then it's no brainer...Manning 40+ Td's will out score any player at any position. add in yards and this isn't a conversation.

If Rushing Td's are more...then drop him down a couple spots...not far.

True, but you're assuming he's going to toss that many TDs every year. As we can see from this year, QBs tend to be hot and cold from year to year much more than RBs, especially the few I mentioned.

[Kidhuman]

In my league TD's are six points for both rushing and tossing.

I expected him to toss at least one a week, not go blamk for two weeks straight.

He made up for it today though, just hope it doesnt happen again.