This is the best Mock Draft I have seen for the JETS, Revis trade

[bitonti]

The new CBA makes it MORE likely for a team to take a shot on a lesser QB early, like at #4.  

 

Miss on a QB that high and you lose a draft pick but can easily recover because he's still only making roughly great backup QB money.  Miss on a QB that high with the prior CBA and you're sticking with him come hell or high water because he's making $10-12M/year with most of it guaranteed and therefore cripples your franchise for years at the position (Mark Sanchez, Jamarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, etc.) and the only way out is to get impossibly lucky (like Arizona with Warner fixing their Leinart problem).

 

The ability to recover from a swing and a miss is far greater now than in years prior.  If 2012 had 2010's rookie contracts, Tannehill doesn't go #8 and Blaine Gabbert doesn't go #10.  Guys like that probably would have been lower down with the Freeman-Pennington-Ramsey-Boller level prospects.  But with today's CBA, I think it's more likely that a prospect like Freeman would get drafted closer to 10 than 20 because the get out of jail free card is so much cheaper.

 

im gathering from your response that you didn't actually read the link. The lowered salaries are important but the 5th year of QB contracts in the top 10 is way less favorable than the 5th year for 1st round QB's after 10. 

[Sperm Edwards]

im gathering from your response that you didn't actually read the link. The lowered salaries are important but the 5th year of QB contracts in the top 10 is way less favorable than the 5th year for 1st round QB's after 10. 

 

I did.  And no one is going to draft or not draft a QB at 9 or 11 because of that.  Absolutely no one.  If you think you've got your future QB right there, no GM is going to potentially let him get away because of a slightly higher 5th year salary.  Particularly in light of how cheap the first 4 years are now.

 

I am not buying that at all.  And guys like Tannehill and Locker getting taken 8th rather than 15th-20th shows it.  Teams feel that it's a major bargain to take a shot on a potential franchise QB and aren't going to trade down to risk losing the chance. 

 

It is just a dead-wrong opinion.

[slats]

The new CBA makes it MORE likely for a team to take a shot on a lesser QB early, like at #4.  

 

Miss on a QB that high and you lose a draft pick but can easily recover because he's still only making roughly great backup QB money.  Miss on a QB that high with the prior CBA and you're sticking with him come hell or high water because he's making $10-12M/year with most of it guaranteed and therefore cripples your franchise for years at the position (Mark Sanchez, Jamarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, etc.) and the only way out is to get impossibly lucky (like Arizona with Warner fixing their Leinart problem).

 

The ability to recover from a swing and a miss is far greater now than in years prior.  If 2012 had 2010's rookie contracts, Tannehill doesn't go #8 and Blaine Gabbert doesn't go #10.  Guys like that probably would have been lower down with the Freeman-Pennington-Ramsey-Boller level prospects.  But with today's CBA, I think it's more likely that a prospect like Freeman would get drafted closer to 10 than 20 because the get out of jail free card is so much cheaper.

I completely agree with this. I think the new rules make gambling on greatness much more palatable - at QB, or any other position. I would expect the classic high left tackle pick to start to make its way out of favor as teams take more chances on the QBs, pass rushers, or anyone who makes a difference with the ball in their hands.

[Sperm Edwards]

I completely agree with this. I think the new rules make gambling on greatness much more palatable - at QB, or any other position. I would expect the classic high left tackle pick to start to make its way out of favor as teams take more chances on the QBs, pass rushers, or anyone who makes a difference with the ball in their hands.

 

This is exactly what I'm saying.  It's more than just the position being a playmaking position.  If the position is one that maybe 2-3 times in a decade you've got a shot at in FA (along with dozens of other teams in the hunt), then they'll continue to be drafted high.  Lots of teams let guards hit FA when they think the position (on their team) doesn't warrant it.  So if top tier left tackles continue to cost $10M+ just to hold onto your own (and if finding them in FA is still rare) then they'll continue to get drafted in the top 5 or so.  If teams start to let these guys hit free agency then they become less of a "must get by drafting high" position.  Guard is one of those positions, which is why no one takes one in the top 10.  

 

Same thing with other positions like FB or safety. If you want a really good one they're available and not for that much cap space.  Other positions are not that case (true franchise QBs, playmaking WRs, premiere dual threat TEs who can put up WR numbers, etc.).  Problem is a lot of those positions (QB in particular) aren't just hit or miss; you build your entire offense around this person and he can't be successfully rotated in & out like a back or a receiver or a pass rusher.  That was always the case, but in the past it was a double-whammy if he flopped because you can't devote the cap space to another high-paying QB to be on the same team in case the newly-drafted guy is a bust.  Now that they're cheaper, you can do that.  

 

Look at Miami; they took a QB 8th overall and because a top 10 pick QB is so cheap now they can easily afford to pay Matt Moore $4M/year to be his backup.  By the time Tannehill is nearing the end of his rookie deal they'll know what they've got in him and at that time Moore's $4M/year contract will be over. At that juncture they will either re-sign Moore for a lot less, find a much cheaper veteran #2 QB, or draft one in the mid to later rounds.

 

If the cap remains flat, and in order to keep their important playmakers (the ones that can have lengthy careers: QB, WR, DL, pass rusher), the salaries for other previously high-priced positions will necessarily decline (CB, LT in particular).  If/when that happens you won't see those positions drafted in the top 5 anymore as people take their shot on positions where studs are otherwise generally unavailable.

[drocksthaparty]

When it comes to risk on the top qb it is easier and cheaper now to do. They are getting back up money