Football Outsiders: Patriots have easiest 2017 schedule

[southparkcpa]

Is it any wonder???

They play the JETS, Dolphins, Bills two times.

Their entire run over the last 15 years should have an asterisk just for that. 

 

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FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- When the New England Patriots' 2017 opponents were finalized, many seemed to be in agreement that the club's schedule would be tougher than its 2016 slate.

Specifically, the quality of quarterbacks the Patriots will face appears to be a step up, as Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jameis Winston and Derek Carr are the headliners.

But here's the word from Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders: Not so fast.

Writing on ESPN.com (Insider content), Schatz detailed the analytics that led his Football Outsiders team to a most surprising conclusion: The Patriots currently project to have the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2017.

In making the projection, Schatz noted that it started with Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) ratings for the past three seasons, with more weight placed on the 2016 ratings.

There are also offensive projections and a separate projection specifically for the starting quarterback. Offense and defense projections are done separately.

Then, Football Outsiders accounts for "general regression trends" while also working to "incorporate a number of other variables that measure everything from turnover ratios to personnel and coaching changes on both sides of the ball."

"We're forecasting decline for many of their out-of-division opponents, including Atlanta, Denver and Kansas City," Schatz wrote. "Meanwhile, the rest of the AFC East comes in under .500."

I reached out to Schatz for some further context.

"The Patriots seem to have an easy schedule most years. Some of it is the division -- we have the Bills' offense taking a step back, Miami was not as good as its record last year, the Jets are still awful even if their defense rebounds a bit -- but also a lot of it is playing NFC South, because our projections see a big difference between playing NFC West/East (really good divisions except San Francisco) or NFC North/South (not as good divisions)," Schatz said.

"So the whole division comes out with easier-than-average schedules. Miami is 18th, and the other teams are in the bottom 10.

"A lot of it is a lack of balanced teams that are average or better on both sides. Most of the teams with better quarterbacks have iffy defenses (Atlanta, New Orleans, we have Tampa Bay's defense regressing), and the really good D's have no quarterbacks (Houston, Denver).

"And obviously, this is based on projections, and some teams will end up different than expected, so there's lots of variation possible in this."

 

[BurnleyJet]

Well doh! - They play the Jets twice!

[Jetdawgg]

Took N. Tesla to figure that out for them....smh

[Larz]

Schatz

Lol