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Rookie 1st Round WR, TE, OT performance

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35 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Jetsxfactor had a detailed article showing which first round position has hit the ground running.  Here's a quick summary w/ some of my thoughts.


1st round rookie WRs since 2020:  10.9 starts, 57.6 receptions, 797.8 yards, 4.3 TDs.  Production 'upside' for top 10 drafted WRs has been insane (Chase, Waddle, Smith, Wilson)

1st round rookie TEs (9 total) in last 10 years:  9.0 starts, 41.4 receptions, 508.8 yards, 2.9 TDs.  Pitts (1k+ rookie receiver) was the first top 10 drafted rookie TE to reach 500 receiving yards since 1980

1st round rookie OTs since 2014 ranked using 2023 as a benchmark:  1.02% sack rate (29th %tile), 6.4% pressure rate (35th %tile), 8.8 penalties per 1k snaps (32nd %tile).  7 out of 36 or 19% became instant stars according to PFF percentile ranks (LT Lewan, RT Conklin, LT Decker, RT Ramczyk, RT Wirfs, LT Slater, RT Sewell), similar to the 22% rate of first found rookie WRs to reach 1000 yards since 2020


The best rookie production on average has been at the WR position.  I'd also give the edge to the top rookie WRs over the top rookie OTs since hitting 1K receiving yards is a higher bar than the top 25%tile in PFF's Offensive Tackle score, which was used by them to categorize the above 7 OTs as 'instant stars'.

At TE, my impression is that it's the lowest risk to outright bust but is that exactly the best determining factor for a top 10 selection?  Kyle Pitts broke the mold for what a rookie TE could become in the modern NFL w/ over 1K receiving yards.  His stats have declined since.  The case for Bowers is that he is DIFFERENT than any rookie TE we've seen to date, both as a mismatch and in his readiness to contribute right away.  That's according to some in the scouting community.   

Does their OT score not include our very own Becton?

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I read the same article and yes the wr was the best of the threee.  But it also said that, given the injury issues of smith and Moses, a tackle would be seeing plenty of action so it might be the better choice for the jets.  The te was definitely third by a large margin.

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15 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

Not sure I’m interested in mortgaging the future of this team. But trading up and getting a star WR in MHJ to pair along with GW would be epic.

I know…. Imagine the Jets trading up using this year’s third rounder and next year’s second (as an example) to move up for what Chase turned into.  That’s just a guess at what it might take to move up 6 spots.

There’s always the risk MHJ doesn’t pan out but the payoff could be huge.  It would take the pressure off needing a franchise QB to have a top 5-10 offense.  Maybe league average would be good enough when you add in Breece Hall.

In such a scenario, Carter Warren would need to develop at RT and we would spend our first rounder next year at LT.  

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