Jets RB | Bill Barnwell (FO) Interview

[rick34125]

Breakdown of the Jets: Running Backs with guest writer Bill Barnwell

By Jetfighter

Posted on Thu Jun 28, 2007 at 11:29:29 AM EST

http://www.nylandingstrip.com/story...6/28/112929/547

We are back with our next installment of Breakdown of the Jets: Running Backs and today this segment will be a little different. After we break down the stats on our New York Jets runningbacks, instead of my breakdown of the RB's, we have guest writer Bill Barnwell from Football Outsiders and FOX Sports to answer our very own 4 Downs of questions on the situation.

Let's not hesitate to do the breakdown. As usual I would like to thank the Football Outsiders for their stats on the running backs and Bill Barnwell for his warm welcomed sitdown today.

Here is some information on how Football Outsiders rank the runningbacks.

Running backs are ranked according to DPAR, or Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement. This number represents the total number of points scored due to plays where this RB carried/caught the ball, compared to a replacement-level RB in the same game situations.

The next statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average RB in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance.

The final statistic is Success Rate. This number represents the player's consistency, measured by successful running plays (the definition of success being different based on down and distance) divided by total running plays. A player with higher VOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. A player with lower VOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more. It is not adjusted for opponent.

The simple version: DPAR means a running back with more total value. DVOA means a running back with more value per play. All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.

Now Let's get onto the stats.

Player: Thomas Jones

Team: New York Jets(Stats from CHI.)

DPAR: 25.5

DPAR Rank: 11

PAR: 26.3

PAR Rank: 11

DVOA: 5.6%

DVOA Rank: 19

VOA: 6.2%

Runs: 296

Yards: 1210

TD: 6

FUM: 1

Suc Rate: 48%

Rank: 17

You can see from the stats that TJ ranks among the better half of running backs, and even though for his age (29 once the season starts) he is still young in terms of carrying the rock. His success rate is around 48% which means that sometimes he got stuffed behind the line more than usual but he still ranks right below the average for somebody who split most of his carries.

Now we are onto the question segment with our special guest writer Bill Barnwell from the Football Outsiders for 4 Downs of Questions.

1.) JF: What do you expect out of Thomas Jones this year as the Jets main RB?

BB: "Jones is an immediate upgrade over Kevan Barlow, Cedric Houston, and Derrick Blaylock. He's worked hard to improve his status from being considered a draft bust in Arizona. The primary factors that will affect his performance this year as opposed to last year are playing better run defenses within his division and a much harder schedule overall. A line of 280 carries, 1060 yards, and 6 touchdowns would seem like a reasonable expectation barring injury."

2.) JF: Is TJ durable enough to carry most of the load, considering for most of his career he has always shared the rock?

BB: "Well, he's shared the load on teams that ran the ball a lot. He's averaged 305 carries over the past two years, which is a pretty nice figure for a starting running back to average without being overworked or run into the ground for the sake of giving him the ball. He's not going to get the ball as frequently because the Jets are not going to win 13 games like the Bears did, and won't be running the ball late to kill the clock as a result."

3.) JF: Being that running backs can't do much without a decent o-line in front of them, do you think the offensive line in year two of Mangini can open enough holes for TJ, Leon, and Cedric to get through?

BB: "We ranked the Bears offensive line as ninth in the league in run blocking last year; the Jets', we found to be 25th. While the Jets' line will improve this year with the growth of Ferguson and Mangold, the loss of Pete Kendall, an absolute mauler pulling on off-tackle plays and sweeps, would be a crushing one if it actually does come to fruition. Our research in Pro Football Prospectus 2007 also shows that offensive lines tend to improve by staying together, which should be another point in the Jets' favor if everyone sticks around. Overall, Jones is likely going to play behind a worse offensive line than last season, but not one so bad that it will prevent him from producing a la Edgerrin James. Washington might be even more dependent on Kendall when he runs sweeps and draws and tosses."

4.)JF: Prediction: Will TJ be in the top 10 for running backs when the 07-08 campaign is finished?

BB: "I will say no -- just outside, somewhere in the 10-15 range if you're talking yardage or fantasy points. That's a huge upgrade, though, and nothing to be ashamed of or disappointed in."

[lawngnome o-line]

"We ranked the Bears offensive line as ninth in the league in run blocking last year; the Jets', we found to be 25th. While the Jets' line will improve this year with the growth of Ferguson and Mangold, the loss of Pete Kendall, an absolute mauler pulling on off-tackle plays and sweeps, would be a crushing one if it actually does come to fruition. Our research in Pro Football Prospectus 2007 also shows that offensive lines tend to improve by staying together, which should be another point in the Jets' favor if everyone sticks around. Overall, Jones is likely going to play behind a worse offensive line than last season, but not one so bad that it will prevent him from producing a la Edgerrin James. Washington might be even more dependent on Kendall when he runs sweeps and draws and tosses."

Its just something to note the possible impact that the Kendall situation will have. If he doesn't play, the biggest dropoff will be seen with the two guys next to him Brick and Mangold, who will have on their shoulders with having a weaker LG putting more of a load on them. Instead of having a LG with a positive impact picking up an extra load when needed, they have one that would have more of a negative effect, and this without considering any chemistry issues.

[rick34125]

"We ranked the Bears offensive line as ninth in the league in run blocking last year; the Jets', we found to be 25th. While the Jets' line will improve this year with the growth of Ferguson and Mangold, the loss of Pete Kendall, an absolute mauler pulling on off-tackle plays and sweeps, would be a crushing one if it actually does come to fruition. Our research in Pro Football Prospectus 2007 also shows that offensive lines tend to improve by staying together, which should be another point in the Jets' favor if everyone sticks around. Overall, Jones is likely going to play behind a worse offensive line than last season, but not one so bad that it will prevent him from producing a la Edgerrin James. Washington might be even more dependent on Kendall when he runs sweeps and draws and tosses."

Its just something to note the possible impact that the Kendall situation will have. If he doesn't play, the biggest dropoff will be seen with the two guys next to him Brick and Mangold, who will have on their shoulders with having a weaker LG putting more of a load on them. Instead of having a LG with a positive impact picking up an extra load when needed, they have one that would have more of a negative effect, and this without considering any chemistry issues.

Expect the rookies nick and brick to step up their play this year. the rookie year is the hardest adjustment. and don't expect a big dropoff at LG without kendall. overall chemistry will be a plus.

[4HCrew]

dont expect a big dropoff without Kendall based on what replacement? and the chemistry will improve without him? huh?

[rick34125]

dont expect a big dropoff without Kendall based on what replacement? and the chemistry will improve without him? huh?

Adrien Clarke, Wade Smith or even possibly Adrian Jones. yes the chemistry will improve.

[#27TheDominator]

Adrien Clarke, Wade Smith or even possibly Adrian Jones. yes the chemistry will improve.

Why will the chemistry improve? Kendall wasn't a problem for chemistry last season. Maybe it will improve compared to mini-camp, but not compared to #25 best run blocking last year, unless it's because Brick and Mangold are more confident and secure.