JI/JN Border War Mafia Game Thread

[Lefty Ruggerio]

We might have multiple finders with varying reliability. Doggin implied the fast games were practice. Makes sense to have more than one finder if guys are getting converted.

If the doctor cannot prevent conversion, could be someone else who can.

Possible power roles remaining... I believe the doctor should not reveal yet.

Yeah, if there are other town power roles, doc revealing doesn't make sense. The town could have some one like a roleblocker who could stop a kill or conversion.

The standard town power roles are doc and cop. The vig is an extra power role. I thought that role balanced the presence of the Cult Leader.

[Joe Cabot]

Yeah as it's been said already, Doggin has a tendency to throw some wrenches in the game. I find it highly unlikely this is a vanilla game...and as such, the doc should definately not reveal. Too many bad things that can come of it

[Virgil Sollozzo]

This has the feel of scum trying to start another train and having the town do their dirty work.

Both Carlito and Al, within seconds of each other, made the killvote on Rooney. How is it that neither of them have been questioned?

Yes. That is the mafia's goal. To have the town help them lynch innocents. But this is not a sudden train, guys have been asking about you since Day 1.

The final vote on Rooney is not enough to make cases against Carlito and Al. Many guys wanted Rooney dead. Carl and Al gave Rooney time to speak up before hammering.

For me Carlito is suspect because he posts too much for Jets Babe. Long helpful posts. She may be coached.

[Henry Hill]

Yeah as it's been said already, Doggin has a tendency to throw some wrenches in the game. I find it highly unlikely this is a vanilla game...and as such, the doc should definately not reveal. Too many bad things that can come of it

I don't expect too many more surprises. I'm pretty sure the 'Cult Leader' fits the bill of non-vanilla game.

[Virgil Sollozzo]

Tony Soprano interests me also. Very active at the start and grows quieter every day. Possibly increased post count early on to avoid inactivity questions. Possible conversion.

[Doggin94it]

Your rush to defend is interesting. This is information you wouldn't typically share.

FOS.

Nope - check any game I mod (on any board). When people try to make deductions about gameplay/roles based on something I did (mod scenes or player replacements) I squash it, hard. Play the game, not the mod - because I don't give away game info (not in replacing a player and not in mod scenes). Like I said when I made the announcement that Carlito would be modkilled if there was no replacement - he might be roled, he might not, and he might be mafia or cult, and he might not; I'd act the same for any player who told me they needed to cut out after a game had started.

[Doggin94it]

Dead on.

However, is it really the end of the world to reveal the Doc today? We've got 6 bad guys among us now, the Doc will be protecting him or herself regardless.

The only flaw here is if a Doc can't protect himself from conversion. Doggin?

PAFO

[Vito Corleone]

If I had to guess they either had a suspicion that Nicky had a role or they had a suspicion of who they thought the poster behind Nicky was and either way, found him as somebody they wanted to rid themselves of. I could be wrong here, but I think generally scum try to pick kills based on who they think will help them most long term and not just for the purpose of setting up one single innocent on one day, considering that the odds are already on their side that an innocent be lynched anyway.

Makes sense. Could very well be that we're reading way too much into the NK's, when they're just being systematic. And our confusion is just a bonus to them.

I do think they'd want some distance, though, especially on the first night.

We'd have to say that cult can't recruit scum.

If they could, then once they did, they'd have the names of the entire scum team. A cult member could then sacrifice himself and reveal all of the names, and he would be replaced that night.

This also makes sense. That would be an unfair advantage in the way games are set up here. Looking around on other places online, I've seen both options. One where scum could be converted, another where where the the cult leader was NK'd if he tried to recruit scum. It's possible that Doggin's created a third option of simply a failed conversion when targeting scum, too. Doggin seems to like to be pretty minimalist when it comes to info.

[Vito Corleone]

This has the feel of scum trying to start another train and having the town do their dirty work.

Both Carlito and Al, within seconds of each other, made the killvote on Rooney. How is it that neither of them have been questioned?

They should be. And I think they will be.

You and Marcellus have contributed the least to the game so far. In a game with few leads, the logical place to go is to take a closer look at each of you.

According to Doggin's front page, we're about 48 hours away from our lynching deadline. We have to get moving.

The other night you said you'd soon be free to post to your heart's content, now would be a good time to start.

That said, I'll vote: Marcellus Wallace and see if we can't get him out of the woodwork, too.

[Lefty Ruggerio]

They should be. And I think they will be.

You and Marcellus have contributed the least to the game so far. In a game with few leads, the logical place to go is to take a closer look at each of you.

According to Doggin's front page, we're about 48 hours away from our lynching deadline. We have to get moving.

The other night you said you'd soon be free to post to your heart's content, now would be a good time to start.

That said, I'll vote: Marcellus Wallace and see if we can't get him out of the woodwork, too.

MW said he'll be back in a couple of hours after taking an exam. He must be trying to get a degree so he can get out of the organized crime business. In this economy he's better off not becoming legit.

Let's see if he comes back like he said he would. Sonny is pulling a Woody and it's troublesome.

[Joe Cabot]

Ok, since we're at a stand still, I'm going balls to the wall right now. We're all in agreement that the scum is most likely very experienced, and will play a very cerebral game. However, we cannot forget they will be thinking the same about us. They know what players aren't scum, thus what "minds" are leading the town.

I believe the best question to ask is, if we were scum, what would we have done night 1 to set up the town, regardless of whether or not the figured out they were killing a role (because I honestly think they just got a bit lucky). With them knowing again a)who we are, and b)how completely and utterly confused we would be after night 1, I think they played thinking we'd over think things.

**Furthermore, they're going to shift they're focus towards the cult quickly, IMO. We can only kill one, by majority blind vote, during the day (which could also be one of our own). The cult can convert, guaranteeing that person turns over, and that would be more damaging.

What am I trying to say? I think they'd want us to think it was an obvious setup, and divert our attention from any "set up" players, at least for the day. Henry is that guy, and aside from being "setup," he played the I've been setup card really quickly. Now you could counter that by saying Henry is just a strong player that was preimpting what the scum was going to do. Well I'll go ahead and counter that with what strong player would ever suggest the doc revealing on day 2, down two power roles (and still definately the possibility more are around)?

I call shenanigans. Vote: Henry Hill

[Vito Corleone]

We might have multiple finders with varying reliability. Doggin implied the fast games were practice. Makes sense to have more than one finder if guys are getting converted.

If the doctor cannot prevent conversion, could be someone else who can.

Possible power roles remaining... I believe the doctor should not reveal yet.

The Doc traditionally provides one service: he protects against NK's. I strongly doubt he can protect against conversion. Another thing I've seen elsewhere in regards to a cult is a "psychiatrist," who can either protect against conversion to the cult, or can "cure," the converted. It's possible we have one of those.

The doc would be extremely useful for the cult, as he could then protect the cult leader from being NK'd. I'd say it's very wise for the doc to keep quiet unless he's on the very brink of being lynched.

Yeah, if there are other town power roles, doc revealing doesn't make sense. The town could have some one like a roleblocker who could stop a kill or conversion.

The standard town power roles are doc and cop. The vig is an extra power role. I thought that role balanced the presence of the Cult Leader.

As we've seen too clearly, the vig is a danger to the town. Depending on the player behind the role he could be little more than a serial killer who thinks he's being helpful. With a careful player, it could be a huge asset, but too often the vig is too intoxicated with his ability to NK to holster his weapon.

Doggin knows this. I'd expect him to have other balances in place.

[Joe Cabot]

Actually I looked up Cult Leader, and here's what I found. I think it's safe to go forth thinking the scum CANT be converted.

The Cult recruits players into a faction similar to a Mason group. A Cult will usually have a Cult Leader who 'starts' the cult, and is responsible for recruiting players.

Variations

In some variations, the Cult has a pro-Town alignment, while in other variations, the Cult is a separate faction trying to take over the Town. In both variations, the Cult is successful when recruiting a pro-Town player, while a Cult member dies if they attempt to recruit a player that is part of the Mafia. Cults generally do not have a killing ability.

In some variations, if the Cult Leader dies, the role is passed to the oldest living recruited player. In other variations, if the Cult Leader dies then the Cult can no longer recruit. Also, there are some variations that have a backup Cult Leader that takes charge when the Cult Leader dies.

[Virgil Sollozzo]

Ok, since we're at a stand still, I'm going balls to the wall right now. We're all in agreement that the scum is most likely very experienced, and will play a very cerebral game. However, we cannot forget they will be thinking the same about us. They know what players aren't scum, thus what "minds" are leading the town.

I believe the best question to ask is, if we were scum, what would we have done night 1 to set up the town, regardless of whether or not the figured out they were killing a role (because I honestly think they just got a bit lucky). With them knowing again a)who we are, and b)how completely and utterly confused we would be after night 1, I think they played thinking we'd over think things.

**Furthermore, they're going to shift they're focus towards the cult quickly, IMO. We can only kill one, by majority blind vote, during the day (which could also be one of our own). The cult can convert, guaranteeing that person turns over, and that would be more damaging.

What am I trying to say? I think they'd want us to think it was an obvious setup, and divert our attention from any "set up" players, at least for the day. Henry is that guy, and aside from being "setup," he played the I've been setup card really quickly. Now you could counter that by saying Henry is just a strong player that was preimpting what the scum was going to do. Well I'll go ahead and counter that with what strong player would ever suggest the doc revealing on day 2, down two power roles (and still definately the possibility more are around)?

I call shenanigans. Vote: Henry Hill

Interesting. A doc reveal also gives scum a free shot at anyone else. Since it is assumed the doc will self-protect.

[Joe Cabot]

Interesting. A doc reveal also gives scum a free shot at anyone else. Since it is assumed the doc will self-protect.

Exactly

[Doggin94it]

Vote Count

Tony Montana (1) - Henry Hill

Sonny LoSpecchio (2) - Frank Costello, Lefty Ruggerio

Marcellus Wallace (1) - Vito Corleone

Henry Hill (1) - Tommy DeVito

With 16 players alive, it takes 9 votes to lynch

[Henry Hill]

Ok, since we're at a stand still, I'm going balls to the wall right now. We're all in agreement that the scum is most likely very experienced, and will play a very cerebral game. However, we cannot forget they will be thinking the same about us. They know what players aren't scum, thus what "minds" are leading the town.

I believe the best question to ask is, if we were scum, what would we have done night 1 to set up the town, regardless of whether or not the figured out they were killing a role (because I honestly think they just got a bit lucky). With them knowing again a)who we are, and b)how completely and utterly confused we would be after night 1, I think they played thinking we'd over think things.

**Furthermore, they're going to shift they're focus towards the cult quickly, IMO. We can only kill one, by majority blind vote, during the day (which could also be one of our own). The cult can convert, guaranteeing that person turns over, and that would be more damaging.

What am I trying to say? I think they'd want us to think it was an obvious setup, and divert our attention from any "set up" players, at least for the day. Henry is that guy, and aside from being "setup," he played the I've been setup card really quickly. Now you could counter that by saying Henry is just a strong player that was preimpting what the scum was going to do. Well I'll go ahead and counter that with what strong player would ever suggest the doc revealing on day 2, down two power roles (and still definately the possibility more are around)?

I call shenanigans. Vote: Henry Hill

If all of that is true, why would I bother? Why not just not go after Nicky when I could have hammered an innocent everyone wanted dead anyway? All it did was draw unnecessary attention to myself.

Also, as to the doc revealing, I never said he should immediately, just that it was an idea, and with 2 power roles gone already, it's not the worst idea in the world. As to a free kill, well, if our math is correct, there we have 15 players remaining, 4 scum right now, we have 2 possible scenarios from scums perspective as cult and town are the same to them.

1) Lynch Scum today, 14 players remaining, 3 scum, leaving 11 options for NK. With a doctor, that's a 10/11 chance they hit correctly, or a 91% chance.

2) Lynch Non-Scum today, 14 players remaining, 4 scum, leaving 10 options for NK. With a doctor, that's a 9/10 chance they'll hit correctly, or 90% chance.

So, basically, what you're incinuating, is that I drew attention to myself by attacking Nicky, rather than just hammering Rooney, so that I could NK Nicky, and then claim that I would never do that because it made me too suspicious, and it was a set-up. Then, because that wasn't enough, I would try to identify the doctor because it gave me a meager 10% increase in hitting a target tonight.

Bolded is exactly what you're voting for.

[Joe Cabot]

If all of that is true, why would I bother? Why not just not go after Nicky when I could have hammered an innocent everyone wanted dead anyway? All it did was draw unnecessary attention to myself.

Also, as to the doc revealing, I never said he should immediately, just that it was an idea, and with 2 power roles gone already, it's not the worst idea in the world. As to a free kill, well, if our math is correct, there we have 15 players remaining, 4 scum right now, we have 2 possible scenarios from scums perspective as cult and town are the same to them.

1) Lynch Scum today, 14 players remaining, 3 scum, leaving 11 options for NK. With a doctor, that's a 10/11 chance they hit correctly, or a 91% chance.

2) Lynch Non-Scum today, 14 players remaining, 4 scum, leaving 10 options for NK. With a doctor, that's a 9/10 chance they'll hit correctly, or 90% chance.

So, basically, what you're incinuating, is that I drew attention to myself by attacking Nicky, rather than just hammering Rooney, so that I could NK Nicky, and then claim that I would never do that because it made me too suspicious, and it was a set-up. Then, because that wasn't enough, I would try to identify the doctor because it gave me a meager 10% increase in hitting a target tonight.

Bolded is exactly what you're voting for.

10% chance to hit your target. Really, thats the best you can do? Identifying the doctor makes the town substantially weaker going forward. Any power roles are from there on out, completely on their own and dead the next night phase if forced to reveal. The doctor MAY be converted in the very next night phase if his role doesn't protect him from conversion (which I doubt it does, especially since there are made roles to counter conversion). Theres even the possibility of a mafia roleblocker, as always, which would be deadily to the doc.

[Henry Hill]

10% chance to hit your target. Really, thats the best you can do? Identifying the doctor makes the town substantially weaker going forward. Any power roles are from there on out, completely on their own and dead the next night phase if forced to reveal. The doctor MAY be converted in the very next night phase if his role doesn't protect him from conversion (which I doubt it does, especially since there are made roles to counter conversion). Theres even the possibility of a mafia roleblocker, as always, which would be deadily to the doc.

No one but other power roles know if they exist. Further, we've already lost 2, how many do you expect there to be? At best, perhaps there is a roleblocker who could block the Cult Leader, but even that seems irrelevant, as if he knew who the Cult Leader was, we could just lynch him.

Keep your vote. I just wanted to make it extremely clear what exactly you are voting for, so, when you take me down, people know where to look next.

[Joe Cabot]

Regarding the power roles issue, I would bet there is more than just a doctor still remaining. A few things to consider: We know we're dealing with a 4 man mafia and 1 cult leader to start the game. 5 bad guys out of 19 to kick things off is already slightly over the standard 25% scum number. Further consider that the cult leader can also recruit members, making the numbers even further mismatched. Three power roles isn't nearly enough to balance that out, especially when one of those is a vig. You have to consider that more often than not, a vig is more of a hindrance to the town than it is a help, and doggin himself has even said more often then not the best action for a vig is a no kill. I can't imagine that's all he would equip us with.

[Henry Hill]

Regarding the power roles issue, I would bet there is more than just a doctor still remaining. A few things to consider: We know we're dealing with a 4 man mafia and 1 cult leader to start the game. 5 bad guys out of 19 to kick things off is already slightly over the standard 25% scum number. Further consider that the cult leader can also recruit members, making the numbers even further mismatched. Three power roles isn't nearly enough to balance that out, especially when one of those is a vig. You have to consider that more often than not, a vig is more of a hindrance to the town than it is a help, and doggin himself has even said more often then not the best action for a vig is a no kill. I can't imagine that's all he would equip us with.

In this game, the vig could have been more useful as his targets would continue to grow. He should definitely have sent a NO KILL last night. But, tonight, with an innocent lynch today, we'd be looking at shooting one of 4 scum, and 3 cult (no reason not to kill the guy getting converted). Putting the odds at just under 60% of an miss kill (14 players, wouldn't shoot himself, and couldn't kill the doc).

[Henry Hill]

One mistake in the above... If he had NO KILL'd last night, there would be 15 players tonight, rather than 14, with 4 scum, 3 cult, so there'd be a slightly lesser chance, but still above 50% when you remove the doc and himself from the equation.

[Marcellus Wallace]

MW said he'll be back in a couple of hours after taking an exam. He must be trying to get a degree so he can get out of the organized crime business. In this economy he's better off not becoming legit.

Let's see if he comes back like he said he would. Sonny is pulling a Woody and it's troublesome.

I'm back now.

[Marcellus Wallace]

Regarding the power roles issue, I would bet there is more than just a doctor still remaining. A few things to consider: We know we're dealing with a 4 man mafia and 1 cult leader to start the game. 5 bad guys out of 19 to kick things off is already slightly over the standard 25% scum number. Further consider that the cult leader can also recruit members, making the numbers even further mismatched. Three power roles isn't nearly enough to balance that out, especially when one of those is a vig. You have to consider that more often than not, a vig is more of a hindrance to the town than it is a help, and doggin himself has even said more often then not the best action for a vig is a no kill. I can't imagine that's all he would equip us with.

Agreed 100%. I can't see any way that we have only doc/cop/vig in this game. Games have to be balanced and with the cult in addition to the regular scum that would not be balanced. With that said I have no clue what the other power roles would be.

[Frank Costello]

One thing to consider is that Doggin's a big fan of percentages, 50% chance of this, 25% chance of that.. My guess is that like Bleedin's sylar character in game 1, the cult has about 4-5 players that can be converted from the start of the game. The players themselves won't know who they are and the cult leader would probably told his conversion has a 25% chance of success. This way if he trys to convert scum, he just gets a no conversion..

I also believe that the doctor can't protect himself against the cult so he should not reveal unless he's near lynch. Why are we even discussing this?

[Ace Rothstein]

I agree with the sentiment that the doc should not be revealing. Even if we do have more than just a doc left in terms of power roles we have no clue if self protecting would protect them from the cult. I think it was Vito who had said that in other cult games the Doc's protection was only for NK's.

[Joe Cabot]

One thing to consider is that Doggin's a big fan of percentages, 50% chance of this, 25% chance of that.. My guess is that like Bleedin's sylar character in game 1, the cult has about 4-5 players that can be converted from the start of the game. The players themselves won't know who they are and the cult leader would probably told his conversion has a 25% chance of success. This way if he trys to convert scum, he just gets a no conversion..

I also believe that the doctor can't protect himself against the cult so he should not reveal unless he's near lynch. Why are we even discussing this?

You are correct.

Good point on Doggin and percentages, btw.

[Joe Cabot]

I agree with the sentiment that the doc should not be revealing. Even if we do have more than just a doc left in terms of power roles we have no clue if self protecting would protect them from the cult. I think it was Vito who had said that in other cult games the Doc's protection was only for NK's.

Yeah the Doc protects from death, not conversion. Along with the keeping the game balanced mindset, I wouldn't be surprised if Doggin' put something in place to directly counter the cult leaders power. Fact of the matter is, it would be foolish to think we already know all there is to know in terms of different roles in the game.

[Ace Rothstein]

This has the feel of scum trying to start another train and having the town do their dirty work.

Both Carlito and Al, within seconds of each other, made the killvote on Rooney. How is it that neither of them have been questioned?

Vote: Sonny

There's been plenty of time where YOU could have asked these questions and put pressure on those players. Why is it you haven't commented on your suspicions during one of the other times we've asked for your thoughts on the game?

I understand the point of putting pressure on other players is to get information from them, and in the case of less active players to get their thoughts on the game but the vibe I get from this post really bugs me. Sonny feels like these 2 votes on him are a scum setup of a train to "get the town to do their dirty work", and the in the very next sentence he asks why Carlito and Capone aren't being pressured by other players. Would those votes not be "scum trying to start another train" if they were on one of those players instead of you Sonny?

[Joe Cabot]

Yeah the Doc protects from death, not conversion. Along with the keeping the game balanced mindset, I wouldn't be surprised if Doggin' put something in place to directly counter the cult leaders power. Fact of the matter is, it would be foolish to think we already know all there is to know in terms of different roles in the game.

I agree completely on the doc. In prior games with similar situations, the doc couldn't block Sylar's conversion ability nor the zombie team's bite. No reason to think this would be any different. As far as a player with a different role that can block conversions or maybe unconvert a player, that seems like a possibility.

[Henry Hill]

I agree completely on the doc. In prior games with similar situations, the doc couldn't block Sylar's conversion ability nor the zombie team's bite. No reason to think this would be any different. As far as a player with a different role that can block conversions or maybe unconvert a player, that seems like a possibility.

Unconverts don't work.

Any time you leave a team like scum, or a cult, where you become an innocent, or member of another team, you have knowledge of every player on that team, and could basically blow the game wide open. The only way this is possible is if cult members DO NOT KNOW that they've become cult members, but the Cult Leader knows.

[Ace Rothstein]

Unconverts don't work.

Any time you leave a team like scum, or a cult, where you become an innocent, or member of another team, you have knowledge of every player on that team, and could basically blow the game wide open. The only way this is possible is if cult members DO NOT KNOW that they've become cult members, but the Cult Leader knows.

They could be told that they're part of the cult but not told who else is in the group with them. Of course that would mean the Cult Leader couldn't use any power roles to his advantage as he'd have to reveal himself to those cult members and they could then out him should they be unconverted.

I tend to lean towards Frank's theory that there are certain players that can be converted and the Cult Leader was told in their role PM that they only have a certain percentage of the game that can be converted.

[Joe Cabot]

Unconverts don't work.

Any time you leave a team like scum, or a cult, where you become an innocent, or member of another team, you have knowledge of every player on that team, and could basically blow the game wide open. The only way this is possible is if cult members DO NOT KNOW that they've become cult members, but the Cult Leader knows.

That is usually how it works, as far as I can tell. Obviousy that doesn't mean this is the case, but since it's my understanding cultists can't communicate with one another, it doesnt make sense to know who else is cult anyways.

That doesn't by any means mean thats the case this game though

[Ace Rothstein]

Unconverts don't work.

Any time you leave a team like scum, or a cult, where you become an innocent, or member of another team, you have knowledge of every player on that team, and could basically blow the game wide open. The only way this is possible is if cult members DO NOT KNOW that they've become cult members, but the Cult Leader knows.

They could be told that they're part of the cult but not told who else is in the group with them. Of course that would mean the Cult Leader couldn't use any power roles to his advantage as he'd have to reveal himself to those cult members and they could then out him should they be unconverted.

I tend to lean towards Frank's theory that there are certain players that can be converted and the Cult Leader was told in their role PM that they only have a certain percentage of the game that can be converted.

I'd guess that Henry's right about the trouble with unconverting players. Far more likely IMO that either Frank is right about there only being certain people who can be converted, or that we have a role blocker.

[Ace Rothstein]

That is usually how it works, as far as I can tell. Obviousy that doesn't mean this is the case, but since it's my understanding cultists can't communicate with one another, it doesnt make sense to know who else is cult anyways.

That doesn't by any means mean thats the case this game though

So the cult leader actually wouldn't have any extra incentive to try to convert a roled player?