Non-Jets Question: Calling all contract experts: What will Ryan Fitzpatrick Sign For?

[Jack Straw]

Just curious as to what everyone thinks he'll sign for? Sperm or Jason and others would be great - what do you think?

[Larz]

are you going to make an offer ?

no, he won't be a jet

[Sperm Edwards]

2 year extension that kicks in after this season ends, $18M with $10M guaranteed.

[jason423]

Very difficult to say. Hes a complete journeyman QB and no team is going to get too fooled by it except the Bills. The guy is now in his 7th NFL season and its very rare to see someone who is on his third team and has never been looked at as anything more than a backup somehow get it and become a high level starter. The closest recent comparison I can come up with is David Garrard who was more or less a nobody in Jacksonville for six seasons before getting a big deal. I guess thats what Fitzpatrick could point to even though the deal is off the books, but the problem is that Garrard was a flop. Derek Anderson would be another 1 hit wonder, but he got his deal after only 3 years. Matt Cassel got his after 4. Both were basically duds so I cant see anyone bidding that high.

My guess is the closest comparison players are Kyle Orton and Jason Campbell. I would think unless Buffalo blows him away with an offer they will wait to see what interest those two get on the market. Orton was signed as a RFA and got a 1 year 8.9M extension. It balanced out to 2 year $12 million deal with about 5.5 million guaranteed. The deal was completely backloaded and he received no upfront money. Campbell was in the same boat and his deal averaged out to 3.9M/year. He got no guarantees that I know of. Maybe Tarvaris Jackson is another one at 4M/year. So I would think those are the ballpark prices. Probably something like a 2 year 10 million dollar deal half of which will be guaranteed and much of the 2013 money will come early in the form of a roster bonus. Maybe 1-2 million in incentives as well. The going rate for a backup would be around 2.5M/year with a 1M guarantee, so doubling that would be pretty good.

Its also probably a soft QB market for him. The teams that could be looking are Seattle, San Francisco, Washington, Oakland, Minnesota, Miami, Denver and Kansas City. The Chiefs are going to be just coming off a backup dud so they wont show any interest. Denver is not going to pick up an Orton type when they already had Orton. Miami, Minnesota, Seattle, and San Francisco should be looking to get young. So the market for these types is going to basically be the Redskins and Raiders, making it most likely for him to just take whatever the Bills offer.

[villain_the_foe]

Fitz Magic!