Pre-Draft Word Spewing

[derp]

The draft is always a bit more complicated than we as fans make it. I think two of the main areas of oversimplification that we tend to make are a) overemphasizing short-term needs whereas teams will also look at long-term needs and b) underestimating a player’s fit schematically and overestimating the importance of a need position. Wanted to take a deeper dive into the Jets' needs and whatever preferences we've been able to pick up from Joe Douglas' moves thus far.

The first main point I'd like to throw out there – and it’s one I’ve made in other threads – is how little the Jets have invested in 2021 and beyond. As of today, the Jets have only 14 players under contract for 2022. All could be cut – Quinnen Williams would leave the most dead money, but some cap savings. Among those 14 players, Le'Veon Bell and Quincy Enunwa seem particularly unlikely to be a part of the roster at that point. Joe Douglas gave contracts to five of those players. Four offensive linemen - Fant, McGovern, Lewis, and Van Roten - and Ryan Griffin who he extended last fall. The remaining six players are CJ Mosley (whose status with the team likely depends on how he does this year), long snapper Thomas Hennessy (who is likely hanging around as long as he continues to perform), and those who remain of Mike Maccagnan's 2019 draft class (Chuma Edoga, Trevon Wesco, Blake Cashman, and Bless Austin). 

It is somewhat striking the team has few long-term commitments, though it makes sense when we consider the fact that Douglas has given out a lot of one year deals this free agent period. It seems like he is pretty serious about building through the draft. To that end, I suspect he views this year's class as somewhat of a cornerstone group for the franchise. And accordingly, I don't think he's going to be as focused on short term needs as media and fans tend to be. Long-term needs exist basically all over the roster. Moreover – as much as we’d all like to see the offensive line addressed, it’s pretty easy to argue you could argue that the offensive line is has the most long-term commitments on the roster. It’s actually hard to argue for any other position group.

Taking a look at 2021 - the roster is obviously not quite as bare as the 2022 roster is, though it isn't particularly stacked either. Additional contracted players who have been on the Jets roster and aren’t back end of the roster guys hoping to make the team include (in order of cap hit) Jamison Crowder, Sam Darnold, Henry Anderson, Nathan Shepherd, Chris Herndon, Folo Fatukasi, Trenton Cannon, John Franklin-Myers, Braxton Berrios, and Kyle Phillips. So at least for two years the Jets will have control of most of the defensive line, a starter and a backup at slot receiver, another tight end, and obviously Darnold. Others who haven't been on the roster or who have been back end enough that I missed them (if so I apologize) are Jalin Moore (RB), Jimmy Murray (C), Keon Hatcher (WR), Ahmad Gooden (EDGE), Mike White (QB), Brad Lundblade (C), Corbin Kaufusi (DL), Ian Berryman (P), Wyatt Ray (EDGE), and Anthony Cioffi (S).

Three thoughts from this offseason with regard to roster preferences. One that we aren’t talking about a lot is that the Jets have a ton of off ball linebackers right now. I know the Jets stuck with a 3-4 last year in name, but I'm curious if that continues. Hewitt, Burgess, and Onwuasor in addition to Mosley, Williamson, Cashman, and Langi is a ton of legitimate off ball linebackers. More than last year. Maybe it's nothing, but I'm not so sure. We may see more four man defensive fronts – which theoretically impacts the edge need. Kyle Phillips played last year and isn’t a stand-up linebacker, but could certainly play strongside end in a four man front in my opinion. Second, for offensive linemen there was a clear preference for two traits – athleticism and not committing penalties. I think the best stats on penalties are those we have from bitonti – namely that Wills is questionable – but I think it's going to be key for who gets drafted. And finally, I’ve brought it up a couple times – but “speed creates pressure, pressure bursts pipes”. I think Douglas wants explosive playmakers. And I could be wrong, but I think that impacts what the receiver board looks like.

Also I went through the roster - I counted 21-22 offensive players who I think have a very solid chance to be on the roster this season and 27-28 defensive players. Moreover, 19 of those players were front seven guys who I think are really solidly in the mix. There are a lot of NFL caliber players at those positions and aside from the fact that I'm not sure why there are so many off ball LB's I do wonder if we see some guys moved during the draft. Obviously cuts are in play too. But while this team lacks the high end talent it's deeper than I expected to be in some areas. Pass rushers are lacking but the DL is stacked and off ball LB is as well. Corner lacks certainty but is pretty deep too. It's an interesting group.

In the short-term, there are a couple of areas the roster has clear needs and a couple of areas that are relatively full. Think it's easiest to go through the roster position by position. Have this set up as – Player (year contract expires, year cutting a player gives cap savings instead of dead money). Not going to show the savings year for players on one year deals – we all know who the existing potential cap casualties are or players – or players who would save under $2M if cut.

Quarterback (3): Sam Darnold (2021), David Fales (2020), Mike White (2021)
    A position we’ve just started talking about more recently after a draft we pretty much ignored it because the franchise QB is on the roster. The problem is Darnold has missed three games each of his first two seasons and the backup situation last year was absolutely horrid. The traditional backup situation seems to be carrying an experienced #2 who can also offer things in the QB meeting room and a developmental #3 – but with Fales the Jets seem to be carrying an experienced #3 who should never see the field. I think this opens the door for the Jets to carry a developmental #2 who can offer a bit if Darnold goes down with another injury, and I could see Douglas wanting to have a developmental guy he picked on the roster as a potential asset down the road. Also Darnold is good enough at this point that it’s clearly not making a statement about his future. Wait a year and he doesn’t progress? Things get messy. Alternatively, perhaps they’re waiting for veteran quarterback free agency to shakeout. But this needs to be addressed somehow. 

Could see drafting 0-1, rounds 3+. Think it’s more likely they pass than draft one, but needs more attention than we’re giving it.

Running back (5): Le’Veon Bell (2022, 2021), Trenton Cannon (2021), Jalin Moore (2021), Josh Adams (2020), Kenneth Dixon (2020)
    This one needs more attention too. It’s pretty clear that Bell is not Gase’s choice of running back, this is likely his last year with the team, and the depth chart behind him is almost empty. Like quarterback, they can pick up a legitimate veteran street RB whenever they want, to function as a backup, so perhaps I’m making too much of the current depth chart. But it seems it would be rather easy for them to draft a running back this year, have him take over some time during the season, and then have their starter heading into 2021 all set up. Frankly there’s room on the depth chart for them to draft two. 

Could see drafting 1-2, rounds 2+. It’s possible they pass, but I’d be rather surprised. Likely a guy with good vision, and we’ve seen a push for explosiveness so that could fit here.

Wide receiver (11): Jamison Crowder (2021, 2021), Braxton Berrios (2021), Breshad Perriman (2020), Josh Bellamy (2020), Josh Doctson (2020), Vyncint Smith (2020), Quincy Enunwa (2022, complicated due to injury), Keon Hatcher (2021), Jehu Chesson (2020), Josh Malone (2020), Jeff Smith (2020)
    One of the positions that gets the most attention, as it should. Not a lot of proven NFL talent, only two slot receivers on the roster after this season, and one of the best WR classes we’ve seen in a long time. This needs to be addressed. I think Crowder, Berrios, and Perriman are locks for the roster this season and Bellamy, Smith, and Doctson are possible. Given Crowder and Berrios are both back next year, would expect outside receivers to be more of a priority. Douglas has tossed out “speed creates pressure, pressure bursts pipes”. I don’t think everyone is a fit and explosiveness will be a priority – which is interesting, because that historically doesn’t tend to work out well – but I’m sure Douglas is aware of that.

Could see drafting 2-3, anywhere in the draft. I almost put 1-3, but in this class and with how little there is long term at this position I think just one would be stunning. I do think it’s possible the second happens later than we thought.

Tight end (5): Ryan Griffin (2022, 2021), Trevon Wesco (2022), Chris Herndon (2021), Daniel Brown (2020), Ross Travis (2020)
    This one is tricky. Top three guys all are on the roster for two years, no real long or short term needs, but the offense utilizes 12 personnel a good amount, Wesco didn’t offer a whole lot last year, and Griffin and Herndon have both been suspended in the past. I think it falls down on the priority list, but wouldn’t shock me. 

Could see drafting 0-1, rounds 3+. Would be somewhat surprised if they draft one.

Tackle (3): George Fant (2022, 2021), Chuma Edoga (2022), Conor McDermott (2020)
    The other position that deservedly gets the most attention. Very little depth, not going into the season with three tackles although I guess Lewis can kick over. The door has absolutely been left open for this position to be addressed, the question is how. Lots of fans want a day one starter. I’m not sure how many guys outside the first round are assuredly better than Edoga or Fant from day one. So I expect Douglas takes one of two routes – a round one guy who starts day one and Edoga and Fant compete to be a backup swing tackle, or wait until round two or three and let Fant and Edoga compete. I do think the door has been left open, far more than any of us want to acknowledge, for Fant and Edoga to be handed the starting jobs. McDermott is probably fine as a fourth tackle but doesn’t need to be given that job. 

Could see drafting 1-2, most likely the first in rounds 1-4 and the second in rounds 4+. Looking for athletic guys who don’t get penalized a lot.

Guard (6): Greg Van Roten (2022, 2021), Alex Lewis (2022, 2021), Brian Winters (2020), Josh Andrews (2020), Ben Braden (2020), Leo Koloamatangi (2020)
    It’s not pretty, but the depth actually isn’t too bad. Assuming Winters is back, I think Douglas maybe doesn’t love this interior OL class and decided to kick this position down the curb. Maybe if the value is outrageous, but this guard class isn’t awesome and I wouldn’t expect that to be the case. 

Could see drafting 0-1, rounds 4+. Do not expect to see this position drafted but could see it if the value os overwhelming. I think that would be the end of Winters.

Center (4): Connor McGovern (2022, 2022), Jonotthan Harrison (2020), Jimmy Murray (2021), Brad Lundblade (2021)
    Certainly better than we’ve seen this the last few years. I think there’s an opportunity to draft someone if the need is outrageous, and this class is pretty good. McGovern could theoretically kick to guard. 

Could see drafting 0-1, rounds 2+. Could see drafting a zone fit if the value is overwhelming. Would kick McGovern to guard and cut Winters in that case I believe.

Defensive line (9): Quinnen Williams (2022), Henry Anderson (2021, 2021), Nathan Shepherd (2021), Folo Fatukasi (2021), John Franklin-Myers (2021), Kyle Phillips (2021), Steve McLendon (2020), Bronson Kaufusi (2020), Corbin Kaufusi (2021)
    One of the few areas on the roster that’s stacked. They’ve got a defensive line for this year, they’ve got a defensive line for next year. Not worth messing around with. No need to address it. 

Could not see drafting this position.

EDGE (7): Jordan Jenkins (2020), Jordan Willis (2020), Tarell Basham (2020), Frankie Luvu (2020), Ahmad Gooden (2021), Wyatt Ray (2021), Charles Tapper (2020)
    No NFL players on the roster after this season. I actually don’t hate the depth chart this year, but there’s a clear need for long-term talent and opportunities for short-term upgrades as well. This is a significant need. I’m not sure need matches value in the first or second rounds, but if it did I think it would be in play. Think this is very live from rounds three on. Would not be surprised if Douglas double dips, either, though I don’t know if there are enough picks. 

Could see drafting 1-2, rounds 3+. Zero is possible but would really surprise me.

Off ball linebacker (8): CJ Mosley (2023, 2021), Blake Cashman (2022), Avery Williamson (2020), Patrick Onwuasor (2020), Neville Hewitt (2020), James Burgess (2020), Harvey Langi (2020), BJ Bello (2020)
    Probably one of the better long-term positions on the team. Additionally, with seven legitimate NFL players at a position they need four (or six if they’re going to run different fronts) – there’s really no room this season. Should not be drafted. 

Could not see drafting this position.

Safety (5): Jamal Adams (2020), Marcus Maye (2020), Bennet Jackson (2020), Matthias Farley (2020), Anthony Cioffi (2021) 
    Here’s an area with no NFL players on the roster past this season – with the exception of Adams from a contract standpoint as his option will almost certainly be exercised if he’s not traded. Additionally, I’m not really sure there’s quality depth on the roster. Fans would hate it but I could see a safety being drafted as early as the round 3 and would expect one day three. 

Could see drafting 0-1, rounds 3+. Zero would not surprise me, but this is a sleeper position that I kind of expect to be addressed day three.

Cornerback (6): Bless Austin (2022), Brian Poole (2020), Pierre Desir (2020), Nate Hairston (2020), Arthur Maulet (2020), Kyron Brown (2020)
    This is actually a reasonably nice depth chart for this year, but five of the six contracts expire after this year. There are simply too many long-term holes to go absolutely wild at corner, but I think it would be very reasonable to draft one or two. Given the needs on other areas of the roster, likely one. Any player drafted could step in and compete for a role. This is in play anywhere in the draft, though I’d say based on value day two or three would be far more likely. 

Could see drafting 0-2, rounds 1+. Zero would be a bit of a surprise but the depth chart is basically last year’s plus Desir, that group was functional, and everyone is older. If they draft one or two could be a slot, an outside guy, or both. Think movement skills and size are more important than long speed.

K (2): Brett Maher (2020), Sam Ficken (2020)
    They could certainly draft a kicker. Or not. Prefer not.

P (1): Ian Berryman (2021)
    See kicker.

LS (1): Thomas Hennessy (2023)
    I would be stunned.

So I said I firmly expect a RB, two WR’s, a tackle, and an edge. Additional players possible at every position on the roster except DL and off ball LB – including two corners. Eight picks to make it happen. Here’s my guess at the draft without trades - tackle first version and WR first version.

11. Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
48. Chase Claypool, WR, Notre Dame
68. Cam Akers, RB, Florida State
79. Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia
120. Antonio Gibson, RB/WR, Memphis
159. Derek Tuszka, DE, North Dakota State
192. Darnell Mooney, WR, Tulane
212. Josh Metellus, S, Michigan

11. Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
48. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU
68. Prince Tega Wanogho, OT, Auburn
79. Josh Uche, OLB, Michigan 
120. Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma
159. John Hightower, WR, Boise State
192. Lamar Jackson, CB, Nebraska
212. Terence Steele, OT, Texas Tech

Still think that they move down. And I think a WR in the first is firmly in play – but I cannot figure out what the tackle plan is if that happens. Jackson, Cleveland, Wanogho – not sure.

Alternatively – here’s one with a couple of trades. Jets flip down to 16 and pick up 78 and a future 3 and flip 48 and 79 to the Giants for 36 and 110. Could flip out Jackson for Cleveland. I feel like the Jets’ draft comes out something like this more than what we’re hoping for. But we’ll see.

16. Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama
36. Austin Jackson, OT, USC
68. Julian Okwara, OLB, Notre Dame
78. Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia
110. Terrell Burgess, S, Utah
120. Anthony McFarland, RB, Maryland
159. Keith Ismael, C, San Diego State
192. Darnell Mooney, WR, Tulane
212. Jack Driscoll, OT, Auburn

Will end with thoughts on a few WR fits that will look silly when they draft a guy I don’t think is a fit. This verbal emesis aside, I’ve been trying to spend less time on the draft this year (sad but true) and so I haven’t watched guys as much as I like. Mix of analytics, traits, and whatever I can dig up regarding character has framed most of my perspective.

The thing that I harp on with WR’s, and maybe I’m overcompensating for the fact that nobody talks about it despite the statistical correlations that exist – is weight. Skinny dudes don’t get it done in the NFL. Bulky dudes do.

Jeudy – Can’t figure him and the Jets out. The combine interview turned me off a little. I think he’s an okay day one fit starting with Crowder and Perriman – but he also ran a ton out of the slot at Alabama and Crowder will be there. Do think the route running precision will be valued by Gase. Elite play speed. And he seems to have a good on field football intelligence from a play standpoint which is more important than the Wonderlic. Ultimately lean they’re lower on him than most think – but I wouldn’t be surprised the other way. Do think there are more questions than we give credit for and that’s before we get to him being slight and not making a lot of contested plays. Reminds me of Amari Cooper – but Cooper had almost 20 pounds on Jeudy at the combine (192 vs. 211). Big difference. And again, the weight is important. Calvin Ridley was 189 and similarly not exciting so there’s that. He’s done well – he’s also playing across from a legit elite alpha receiver in Julio Jones. I think that’s a more reasonable expectation for Jeudy and maybe there’s some overcorrecting going on after teams were low on Ridley and he’s done well – but that’s likely a different situation. I think Jeudy could eat if he’s on the Jags for example with Chark taking attention or the Cardinals with Hopkins. Otherwise I think mid level #1 is likely his ceiling – unless he’s Antonio Brown.

Lamb – More comfortable with him on the Jets – seems like a guy who wins in multiple ways. My question is whether that continues at the professional level – but I think he steps in and he’s a good receiver off the bat and the Jets could use that. I just am not so sure that the way he tore up defenses in the Big 12 will translate to NFL defenders for a guy who’s not an elite leaper or speed guy (thought the acceleration is elite) AND lacks bulk which is the big one. He gets those DeAndre Hopkins comps and Davante Adams comps as guys who slid but he came in to the combine at 198 and those dudes were 214 and 212. I think that does make a difference. Not sure if he fits the explosiveness narrative physically but made a ton of big plays in college. We’ll see how that gets taken into accounts..

Ruggs – Obviously fits the explosiveness narrative. I think if the plan is to build an insanely fast offense and he’s the starting point, great. Could see that explosive offense being effective – but I see Ruggs as a piece more than the guy who’s going to bring everything together. And maybe I’m wrong – obviously all the talent in the world. But how often do guys get more productive in the pros? Would be happier if they moved down and took him. Also would be cool to see him paired with one of the other speed guys on that list so you can kind of see that vision coming together. Those teams with a lot of wheels (looking at KC) are certainly tough to defend. Would be fun to have that kind of a group.

Justin Jefferson – Same slot questions as Jeudy – but man I just can’t see Jefferson not being a good pro. Works in traffic, good hands, more explosive than expected and wasn’t asked to do that a lot at LSU. The best bulk of the top receivers. I think he’s in the same tier as the supposed top three and not getting credit for it. Not sure he fits but I’d be a happy camper. So solid I can’t see him busting and I think there’s some untapped physical upside beyond what he showed at LSU.

Mims – Guy I feel most comfortable in the class. Height, bulk, explosiveness, contested catch ability, good breakout age. I just don’t see a lot of bust potential. Seems he’ll end up between the Jets’ picks which is a bummer but maybe he can end up in the second. Everything from an analytics standpoint and a watching him standpoint has him set up to be the guy who’s going too low. He gets knocked a little for 2018 hands – had a broken hand. It’s a knock that he’s an older entry prospect – but his breakout age is exactly where you want it and better than some of the guys who are more highly regarded. Not his fault teams are sleeping on him. I do think he’s more outside only and not a big in traffic guy but I also think that’s a non-issue for the Jets. Also had an absurd three cone.

Aiyuk – Checks most of the boxes – but the old breakout age guys are a red flag. He’s one I could see them drafting and me worrying about. Explosive though. Would rather they pair him with someone else. Coming off surgery as well. I think the fit is there though. Looks faster on the field than he ran at the combine, long arms, big mitts, hands catcher. The age is my only realy concern.

Hamler – Another I could see them drafting based on explosiveness but I’d want to see another guy drafted. The drops bother me. Would certainly be a commitment to that explosiveness element. Spread that field vertically and horizontally. I do think he could play outside. Don’t like it standalone but if it’s paired with the right other player I could get on board.

Higgins – Reminded me of a worse version of AJ Green when I watched him. I think guys like Higgins translate – good quickness and body control to go with solid bulk and great ball skills. Not sure how he fits the explosiveness narrative – not fast but made a lot of big plays in college. Would be happy if they draft him but won’t be surprised if they pass.

Shenault – I like Shenault a lot as a player – I think he’s the kind of guy the larger draft community is higher on than NFL teams because there’s something up that we can’t necessarily see. Obviously the injuries are a concern. I see a guy who can adjust downfield, hands catch, has the quickness and flexibility to develop a good route runner, strength, good breakout age, explosiveness, ability with the ball in his hands. But I think he falls in the draft. Whole seems to be less than the sum of the parts here. The injuries are part of it. The McGinn piece wasn’t glowing. He’s a little raw. I see a lot of upside. Hope he can get there – fun player to watch.

Reagor – Reagor is honestly similar to Shenault in terms of the whole of him as a prospect being less than the sum of his traits – with him at least it’s a little more obvious. Drops, production issues, fumbles, bad field mentality. He’s also got the weight and breakout age down. Very explosive. The kind of guy I’d imagine the Jets wanted to try to get comfortable with because that explosiveness could really be needed and he’s one of the few second round guys who has it. Purely analytics and highlight wise I like him a lot but there’s obviously a reason he’s a little lower.

Claypool – The more I look at this the more I zero in on Claypool being a target. I share some of the tight end concerns that a few people here have and I know others feel are ridiculous. He doesn’t really move like a wide receiver all the time. There are three flip sides to that though – neither do guys like Kenny Golladay who do just fine outside, Claypool is definitively raw and still learning the position (but improving), and I don’t know if it matters any more. If he has to be Darren Waller then I think that fits too and you turn him into Darren Waller. Sharp dude, plays special teams. That 40 was insane, very explosive. I think he’s the guy at 48. Thought it was Mims before, I think it’s Claypool now. Weird enough of a prospect that he might fall but I think he checks the character box and the explosiveness box and it’s awesome he plays special teams. Think he and Perriman can keep the field spread and Crowder can work underneath. And if it doesn’t work outside, there’s your move TE for a team that does a lot of 12 personnel.

Pittman – The safer version of Higgins. Bad on breakout age but checks the weight box, is a better athlete than he gets credit for, pretty polished as a receiver, good hands. I think he’s a late first round pick in a worse class. Would feel pretty good about getting production out of him if the Jets draft him in the second round. I don’t think he fits the explosiveness narrative but he didn’t test too badly. Just not explosive. We’ll see.

Bowden – Super explosive player, some natural WR ability. Would need to be paired with a more solid prospect but he’d be a fun guy to add. Not before day 3 in this class, but still.

Gandy-Golden – Like the player, I think with him it comes down to how much that explosiveness can be improved with different facilities. Love the bigger jump ball guys and his production was awesome. Don’t think the fits the explosiveness narrative. Maybe if they feel he was limited by the smaller school.

Peoples-Jones – I’ll change my tune and get excited about it if they draft him because I’m a sucker for athleticism, but man I don’t see it. Was Michigan *that* bad that he couldn’t get anything going? Obviously talented but dinged up a lot and didn’t separate himself in a WR group where I think there were opportunities. Maybe the coaching change was an issue? If they have a reason they’re comfortable by all means roll the dice because all the traits are there – I just can’t figure it out beyond better athlete than football player.

Van Jefferson – Heck of a route runner, the Jets WR coach’s son. I wouldn’t be upset. He’s slight and lacked productivity, though. Probably other guys I’d rather take before day 3 but the route running is an important trait.

Hodgins – I think he’s underrated. Also not explosive and wonder about the physical upside. Really good movement skills though. Another one I don’t think fits but I like as a player.

Tyler Johnson – Character concerns here? Checks a lot of boxes otherwise. Wild he hasn’t really been a part of anything (Senior Bowl, combine).

Cephus – I have not really dug into his off field issue and whether it’s just something that worked out in his favor or if he was wrongly accused. Obviously that’s the main issue. Ran slow. All of his other drills were good. Sharp dudes seem to think maybe the time off contributed to his bad time along with the poor start and used other athletic areas to rationalize. A sleeper to watch. But the character is obviously the priority there.

Jeff Thomas – Seems like the discount version of Hamler. Explosive. Seemed there was a difference in opinions between him and Richt but he did part ways with the team so that would be good to understand better.

Mooney – My dude. Little guy but has wheels, good breakout age, and attacks the ball in the air. He’s a fun watch, would recommend. If explosiveness is a key trait he’d be a good one to add. My pick as the sleeper WR in this class.