JI/JN Border War Mafia Game Thread

[Ace Rothstein]

Interesting theory. I think its dangerous to completely write off someone as scum this early...especially considering their involvement.

I probably shouldn't have worded it so strongly and I apologize if I gave the impression I was completely writing them off. I simply meant at this time I will not be voting for them if the only argument against them is along the lines of what follows:

"Henry should be lynched because he was arguing with Nicky into the night phase and then Nicky got night killed. Henry night killed Nicky because of their fight"

"Joe should get lynched because he night killed Nicky, the guy who started the train on him the previous day"

If someone presents a compelling case against one of them in addition to or in place of either of the above, or if I personally feel they are acting scummy I would not hesitate to vote that way. I just would not put my vote there for the reasons above and no other reason as those 2 explanations reek of scum setup IMO.

[Vito Corleone]

Today probably wouldn't be the best day to suggest lynching all inactives.

The original set up was 1 Cult Leader, 4 Scum (PaulieC, Warfish, Jetswin and Chesapeake) and 14 townies.

Now we're down to 11 townies (maybe 10), with Cult Leader (may + disciple), and 4 scum. That's potentially 10 vs. 6. If we lynch wrong today, then we could be facing 8 vs. 7 tomorrow (lynch town, NK townie, another cultist added) and the only thing keeping the scum from winning after the following night would be the number of cult members.

Your numbers are right, Lefty, but we're not in panic mode yet. We're not really down to 10 vs. 6; what we probably have is 10 vs. 4 vs. 2 - with the scum and the cult needing to take each other out to win, too. We don't know if the cult can recruit scum (it's possible they already have, in which case it would be 11 vs. 3 vs. 2), but certainly the scum can NK the cult. Both sides have an active interest in taking each other out during the day phase. With the vig doing their work for them early by taking out the finder, they're probably that much more interested in trying to lynch, NK, and/or convert each other ASAP.

Of course we want to lynch scum today (and each rival team will help us lynch the other), but if we do miss another bad night only puts us at 8 vs. 4 vs. 3. Not good, but not quite on the verge of losing. The patient is serious, not critical.

[Marcellus Wallace]

I probably shouldn't have worded it so strongly and I apologize if I gave the impression I was completely writing them off. I simply meant at this time I will not be voting for them if the only argument against them is along the lines of what follows:

"Henry should be lynched because he was arguing with Nicky into the night phase and then Nicky got night killed. Henry night killed Nicky because of their fight"

"Joe should get lynched because he night killed Nicky, the guy who started the train on him the previous day"

If someone presents a compelling case against one of them in addition to or in place of either of the above, or if I personally feel they are acting scummy I would not hesitate to vote that way. I just would not put my vote there for the reasons above and no other reason as those 2 explanations reek of scum setup IMO.

There is definitely a lot wifom involved with those cases. But, I understand your reasoning. Thanks for the clarification.

[Lefty Ruggerio]

Today probably wouldn't be the best day to suggest lynching all inactives.

Your numbers are right, Lefty, but we're not in panic mode yet. We're not really down to 10 vs. 6; what we probably have is 10 vs. 4 vs. 2 - with the scum and the cult needing to take each other out to win, too. We don't know if the cult can recruit scum (it's possible they already have, in which case it would be 11 vs. 3 vs. 2), but certainly the scum can NK the cult. Both sides have an active interest in taking each other out during the day phase. With the vig doing their work for them early by taking out the finder, they're probably that much more interested in trying to lynch, NK, and/or convert each other ASAP.

Of course we want to lynch scum today (and each rival team will help us lynch the other), but if we do miss another bad night only puts us at 8 vs. 4 vs. 3. Not good, but not quite on the verge of losing. The patient is serious, not critical.

Definately not a panic mode, but I agree with Capone that it's imperative to hit scum today. Heck, if we got the Cult Leader that would be beneficial, assuming that he is the only one who can recruit.

This is a critical vote (no pun intended). The town can survive another day with a wrong move, but we'll loose our margin of error.

[Fredo Corleone]

There is definitely a lot wifom involved with those cases. But, I understand your reasoning. Thanks for the clarification.

The old "no way would they would be dumb enough to do that". It's always important to remember that scum works as a team of say 4 in this case and they play as a team communicating privately. Where we are 10 individuals trying to work together without giving to much info to the scum. So whatever little thing is going on is going to be orchestrated to create deception.

It still bugs me how Nicky end up killing Michael. Nicky is the vig and from my understanding it his his job to kill scum, or in this case cultist as well. So did he actually accidentally pick off our finder because he thought he was scum? Sounds too easy and too convenient as far as I'm concerned.

Then we also have to look at why the scum hammered the Vig. I know people talked about the scum being beginners, but again, thier are probably 4 of them playing in unison. One of them has to have at least a game or so of experience.

I personally think Doggin has thrown a curve of some sort and it's starting to piss me off. Nicky or the scum knew more than we did. They must have.

[Lefty Ruggerio]

The old "no way would they would be dumb enough to do that". It's always important to remember that scum works as a team of say 4 in this case and they play as a team communicating privately. Where we are 10 individuals trying to work together without giving to much info to the scum. So whatever little thing is going on is going to be orchestrated to create deception.

It still bugs me how Nicky end up killing Michael. Nicky is the vig and from my understanding it his his job to kill scum, or in this case cultist as well. So did he actually accidentally pick off our finder because he thought he was scum? Sounds too easy and too convenient as far as I'm concerned.

Then we also have to look at why the scum hammered the Vig. I know people talked about the scum being beginners, but again, thier are probably 4 of them playing in unison. One of them has to have at least a game or so of experience.

I personally think Doggin has thrown a curve of some sort and it's starting to piss me off. Nicky or the scum knew more than we did. They must have.

Highly unlikely that all 4 scum are novice. They'd definately be communicating and planning. Some could go off the reservation, but when it comes to NK they usually go on consensus.

Nicky screwed up. He thought he had scum and fired, but it ended up being the finder. We would hope the vig acted with some reservation, but such power is intoxicating. We don't know what Nicky saw to point him in Michael's direction.

As to the scum targetting the vig, it wouldn't have been intentional. If there is a finder on their part, his results would come at the end of the night after all night actions are in (assuming Doggin reveals all night actions at the same time as suggested Doggin does). So there wouldn't be an opportunity to do a NK after finding out who the vig was.

Nicky was the post active poster. Targetting him may have been for the purpose of causing confusion. The likely scenario today would have been Nicky vs. Hill based on how day 1 end. That may have resulted in one of them being lynched or moving the lynch to someone else. With that out of the way we don't know where to go.

Confusion is the scum's best friend. With 16 players, 4 being scum, confusion increases the chances of 1 of the 11 townies getting lynched.

[Fredo Corleone]

Highly unlikely that all 4 scum are novice. They'd definately be communicating and planning. Some could go off the reservation, but when it comes to NK they usually go on consensus.

Nicky screwed up. He thought he had scum and fired, but it ended up being the finder. We would hope the vig acted with some reservation, but such power is intoxicating. We don't know what Nicky saw to point him in Michael's direction.

As to the scum targetting the vig, it wouldn't have been intentional. If there is a finder on their part, his results would come at the end of the night after all night actions are in (assuming Doggin reveals all night actions at the same time as suggested Doggin does). So there wouldn't be an opportunity to do a NK after finding out who the vig was.

Nicky was the post active poster. Targetting him may have been for the purpose of causing confusion. The likely scenario today would have been Nicky vs. Hill based on how day 1 end. That may have resulted in one of them being lynched or moving the lynch to someone else. With that out of the way we don't know where to go.

Confusion is the scum's best friend. With 16 players, 4 being scum, confusion increases the chances of 1 of the 11 townies getting lynched.

I do see how killing Nicky without knowing he was the vig makes sense for the scum. Makes either Joe or Henry the obvious targets for the next day. Or it makes them the least likely to get lynch because it's so obvious it's a set up.

So we are left to believe that nicky acted on a hunch thinking he had a mafia member and it turns out that it was actually the finder? Wow, kinda nice for the scum.

Nicky was running around the thread like a little thug and this may put credence to your theory of him getting carried away with his role/power.

[Carlito Brigante]

I think a very important question here is which Wifom cup do we want to pick? Do we want to Kill off Henry and / or Joe, or do we want to put them aside for now and choose somebody else to lynch?

Personally, I think we should put them aside for now and keep a close watch on them, and in the meantime focus on the rest of us.

The problem is, the amount of information that resides with the rest of us has thusfar been relatively ignored in favour of the few we've been discussing. So, Joe and Henry aside, who does everyone think is the most suspicious player so far (pick your top 3) and more importantly, WHY?

[Vito Corleone]

It still bugs me how Nicky end up killing Michael. Nicky is the vig and from my understanding it his his job to kill scum, or in this case cultist as well. So did he actually accidentally pick off our finder because he thought he was scum? Sounds too easy and too convenient as far as I'm concerned.

So we are left to believe that nicky acted on a hunch thinking he had a mafia member and it turns out that it was actually the finder? Wow, kinda nice for the scum.

So Fredo, I know you're not used to me asking for your opinion, but with Doggin not giving Sonny any respect, and Michael dead, I feel I have no choice. Besides, you have me curious...

What are you thinking here?

[Fredo Corleone]

So Fredo, I know you're not used to me asking for your opinion, but with Doggin not giving Sonny any respect, and Michael dead, I feel I have no choice. Besides, you have me curious...

What are you thinking here?

I'm thinking that what happen the first night was too scum friendly to be an accident. Because as it is now it seems the scum killed the loudest player to supposedly setup Joe or Henry to take a fall. Doing so, both guys are thought to be innocent or at least not an immediate threat. Or by wifom standards, not enough information is available right now to make a choice. As we see in Mr. Brigantes last post he to see's things like this.

So we're do we look next and why?

[Vito Corleone]

I'm thinking that what happen the first night was too scum friendly to be an accident. Because as it is now it seems the scum killed the loudest player to supposedly setup Joe or Henry to take a fall. Doing so, both guys are thought to be innocent or at least not an immediate threat. Or by wifom standards, not enough information is available right now to make a choice. As we see in Mr. Brigantes last post he to see's things like this.

So we're do we look next and why?

Keyword: wifom

Well, it seemed way too obvious to me that either Joe or Henry would take out Nicky. But you're saying that maybe it's so obvious that one (or both?) chose to take him out, believing we'd think it was too obvious, thus clearing them for at least this day phase?

My head hurts.

But I don't have any clear leads on anyone right now.

[Marcellus Wallace]

My head hurts.

But I don't have any clear leads on anyone right now.

I'm with you on both of these points. I don't believe that any of the scum are noobs. They have us all guessing, and that's going to end up hurting us in the long run.

[Marcellus Wallace]

Keyword: wifom

Well, it seemed way too obvious to me that either Joe or Henry would take out Nicky. But you're saying that maybe it's so obvious that one (or both?) chose to take him out, believing we'd think it was too obvious, thus clearing them for at least this day phase?

My head hurts.

But I don't have any clear leads on anyone right now.

Yes, this is a tricky one and that first night didnt help. Also doesnt help that this game is really slow, we are not getting a lot of activity going on and there are still some players that just really havent contributed in the slightest and getting away with it.

At this point, it might serve us right to put pressure on players that really havent voiced their opinions...the likely suspects are so wifom at this point, that it is somewhat scary targeting them ie; Joe and Henry. Or the opposite could be, targeting players who might have contributed to what most of us are viewing as a set up on Henry and Joe.

I am going to go back and do some research when I get a chance and I am going to cast a vote, we need to get this going and we need to start making people talk. We are really just going in circles by talking about the same points over and over again. We have to move forward cautiously and make sure that if we form trains to gain info, that we dont let a speed lynch take place.

[Frank Costello]

I really don't think we have much to go on at this point, so we might as well start pressuring inactives..

The two lowest totals are:

Marcellus Wallace 19

Sonny LoSpecchio 16

We've been at this for about 10 days now meaning neither of these guys have been able to post 2x a day..

Since Marcellus did get some heat on day 1, and his train stalled at 5, I'll go with Sonny'

vote Sonny

[Lefty Ruggerio]

I really don't think we have much to go on at this point, so we might as well start pressuring inactives..

The two lowest totals are:

Marcellus Wallace 19

Sonny LoSpecchio 16

We've been at this for about 10 days now meaning neither of these guys have been able to post 2x a day..

Since Marcellus did get some heat on day 1, and his train stalled at 5, I'll go with Sonny'

vote Sonny

I'll join you, Frank. The WIFOM on Henry is so out there that the pendulum swings to opposite sides (obvious guilt for his battle with Nicky to obvious innocence along the Sharon Stone/Basic Instinct rationale of "if I would write a book about killing someone, do you think I'd kill someone the exact same way?").

If there was something lower than beneath the radar, then that's where Sonny would be because although his post total is nearly as low as MW, he has avoided any scrutiny.

Vote: Sonny

[Joe Cabot]

I'm with you on both of these points. I don't believe that any of the scum are noobs. They have us all guessing, and that's going to end up hurting us in the long run.

At this point I would doubt much of anyone in this game is a newbie mafia player (meaning the game, not the team). In addition, at this point I think even most people have been at least some sort of scum at this point, so its doubtful these guys don't know what they are doing. There's been enough games so far and its mostly the same people playing each time. I haven't really gotten any hints from anyone that would make me think they're really lost.

All that said, while I appreciate the sentiment of people not wanting to come after me for this, we're in the situation that we can't be writing anyone off. Not to say I'm encouraging anyone to come after me, but rather a night kill isn't really a means for vindication for anyone at any point with very few exceptions.

I don't think we should get too caught up on this being a setup of me or Henry. Its possible that scum hoped we could get blamed and lynched for it too, but I find it doubtful that it was their primary motive. If I had to guess they either had a suspicion that Nicky had a role or they had a suspicion of who they thought the poster behind Nicky was and either way, found him as somebody they wanted to rid themselves of. I could be wrong here, but I think generally scum try to pick kills based on who they think will help them most long term and not just for the purpose of setting up one single innocent on one day, considering that the odds are already on their side that an innocent be lynched anyway.

[Jimmy Conway]

Hello all- I've got some catching up to do here as it was a busy weekend for me. Should be back in about 20-30 min.

[Henry Hill]

We don't know if the cult can recruit scum (it's possible they already have, in which case it would be 11 vs. 3 vs. 2), but certainly the scum can NK the cult.

We'd have to say that cult can't recruit scum.

If they could, then once they did, they'd have the names of the entire scum team. A cult member could then sacrifice himself and reveal all of the names, and he would be replaced that night.

[Henry Hill]

Nicky was the post active poster. Targetting him may have been for the purpose of causing confusion. The likely scenario today would have been Nicky vs. Hill based on how day 1 end. That may have resulted in one of them being lynched or moving the lynch to someone else. With that out of the way we don't know where to go.

Exactly why my vote is on the guy who mentioned 4 times in one page that we should look at who was connected to Nicky. You yourself are acknowledging the obvious set-up possibilities here.

[Doggin94it]

Vote Count

Tony Montana (1) - Henry Hill

Sonny LoSpecchio (2) - Frank Costello, Lefty Ruggerio

With 16 players alive, it takes 9 votes to lynch

[Marcellus Wallace]

I'll join you, Frank. The WIFOM on Henry is so out there that the pendulum swings to opposite sides (obvious guilt for his battle with Nicky to obvious innocence along the Sharon Stone/Basic Instinct rationale of "if I would write a book about killing someone, do you think I'd kill someone the exact same way?").

If there was something lower than beneath the radar, then that's where Sonny would be because although his post total is nearly as low as MW, he has avoided any scrutiny.

Vote: Sonny

This has the feel of scum trying to start another train and having the town do their dirty work.

Both Carlito and Al, within seconds of each other, made the killvote on Rooney. How is it that neither of them have been questioned?

[Lefty Ruggerio]

This has the feel of scum trying to start another train and having the town do their dirty work.

Why, because you're the target? You've avoided suspicion until now and has barely posted in this thread, the least amount of any player. We have to learn as much as we can and your low crawl through this game can no longer be ignored.

Both Carlito and Al, within seconds of each other, made the killvote on Rooney. How is it that neither of them have been questioned?

Besides that, do you have anything else on Carlito and Al that you believe would make them worthy of suspicion? It would be good to get your thoughts on this.

[Lefty Ruggerio]

And to add, Sonny, with such a critical vote I doubt there'd be a fast moving train here. And fast, I don't mean in John Rooney's definition of fast.

[Henry Hill]

This has the feel of scum trying to start another train and having the town do their dirty work.

Both Carlito and Al, within seconds of each other, made the killvote on Rooney. How is it that neither of them have been questioned?

Here's what bothers me about Carlito. The replacement.

I know it's not a *rule* or anything of that nature, but in Doggin's first game RutgersJetFan was replaced by Jets Babe and she was the doctor. In CTMs game, shutout was replaced by interestingly enough, again by Jets Babe, and she was the scum role finder.

Again, it's not law, but it makes sense that valuable players would be pinpointed by Doggin earlier and scum would be acknowledged by their teammates. If we have nothing good to go on, I'd go this route, though I'm pretty comfortable with where my vote sits.

That having been said, your response to this pressure sucks, a lot.

[Doggin94it]

Here's what bothers me about Carlito. The replacement.

I know it's not a *rule* or anything of that nature, but in Doggin's first game RutgersJetFan was replaced by Jets Babe and she was the doctor. In CTMs game, shutout was replaced by interestingly enough, again by Jets Babe, and she was the scum role finder.

Again, it's not law, but it makes sense that valuable players would be pinpointed by Doggin earlier and scum would be acknowledged by their teammates. If we have nothing good to go on, I'd go this route, though I'm pretty comfortable with where my vote sits.

That having been said, your response to this pressure sucks, a lot.

FTR - I always look for a replacement before modkilling a player who can't be in the game (regardless of whether they are roled) because losing a player to modkill impacts the balance of the game (whether the player is townie or scum) and I always hate when that happens to me as a player (i.e. one of my teammates - townie or scum - is modkilled).

[Henry Hill]

FTR - I always look for a replacement before modkilling a player who can't be in the game (regardless of whether they are roled) because losing a player to modkill impacts the balance of the game (whether the player is townie or scum) and I always hate when that happens to me as a player (i.e. one of my teammates - townie or scum - is modkilled).

My comments have nothing to do with modkilling, and everything to do with recognizing the need to replace someone. Traditionally, it seems this happens more quickly with roled/scum players.

[Doggin94it]

My comments have nothing to do with modkilling, and everything to do with recognizing the need to replace someone. Traditionally, it seems this happens more quickly with roled/scum players.

In this case, the player PM'd me (unprompted) that, for work reasons, they needed to bail on the game.

[Henry Hill]

In this case, the player PM'd me (unprompted) that, for work reasons, they needed to bail on the game.

Your rush to defend is interesting. This is information you wouldn't typically share.

FOS.

[Lefty Ruggerio]

My comments have nothing to do with modkilling, and everything to do with recognizing the need to replace someone. Traditionally, it seems this happens more quickly with roled/scum players.

I get your theory, Henry, but are you saying it is only for scum, or roled townie or scum?

Under your example, JB was both town and mafia in the games she subbed. The thing is, the town just lost 2 power roles (finder & vig). In all likelihood the town is left with only 1 power role (doc).

So, even if you are right that Doggin would likely sub if the player is important (@Doggin, I'm not saying I believe it's true, just that assuming it for this sake), it is too dangerous to target Carlito at this time because there's a 50/50 chance he/she is the doc.

That said, I don't think Carlito is roled. But that's just a hunch.

[Henry Hill]

I get your theory, Henry, but are you saying it is only for scum, or roled townie or scum?

Under your example, JB was both town and mafia in the games she subbed. The thing is, the town just lost 2 power roles (finder & vig). In all likelihood the town is left with only 1 power role (doc).

So, even if you are right that Doggin would likely sub if the player is important (@Doggin, I'm not saying I believe it's true, just that assuming it for this sake), it is too dangerous to target Carlito at this time because there's a 50/50 chance he/she is the doc.

That said, I don't think Carlito is roled. But that's just a hunch.

Dead on.

However, is it really the end of the world to reveal the Doc today? We've got 6 bad guys among us now, the Doc will be protecting him or herself regardless.

The only flaw here is if a Doc can't protect himself from conversion. Doggin?

[Lefty Ruggerio]

Dead on.

However, is it really the end of the world to reveal the Doc today? We've got 6 bad guys among us now, the Doc will be protecting him or herself regardless.

The only flaw here is if a Doc can't protect himself from conversion. Doggin?

That's an interresting point on the Doc vs. Cult Leader.

And, with no other power roles to protect, it does seem likely like the doc would self protect. So, revealing would not be that much of an issue and we could scratch off a player from the list of suspects.

[Henry Hill]

That's an interresting point on the Doc vs. Cult Leader.

And, with no other power roles to protect, it does seem likely like the doc would self protect. So, revealing would not be that much of an issue and we could scratch off a player from the list of suspects.

Lets hear from some other people before on this as well.

It's also possible we only have 5 bad guys. There's a chance there was an unsuccessful conversion, ie Cult Leader targets scum. I don't know if that changes anything, but if so, the Cult Leader would know who one scum is, but can't reveal it today, as they'd be the obvious target.

Not sure if that changes anything, but it's worth considering.

[Virgil Sollozzo]

That's an interresting point on the Doc vs. Cult Leader.

And, with no other power roles to protect, it does seem likely like the doc would self protect. So, revealing would not be that much of an issue and we could scratch off a player from the list of suspects.

We might have multiple finders with varying reliability. Doggin implied the fast games were practice. Makes sense to have more than one finder if guys are getting converted.

If the doctor cannot prevent conversion, could be someone else who can.

Possible power roles remaining... I believe the doctor should not reveal yet.

[Marcellus Wallace]

I get your theory, Henry, but are you saying it is only for scum, or roled townie or scum?

Under your example, JB was both town and mafia in the games she subbed. The thing is, the town just lost 2 power roles (finder & vig). In all likelihood the town is left with only 1 power role (doc).

So, even if you are right that Doggin would likely sub if the player is important (@Doggin, I'm not saying I believe it's true, just that assuming it for this sake), it is too dangerous to target Carlito at this time because there's a 50/50 chance he/she is the doc.

That said, I don't think Carlito is roled. But that's just a hunch.

With such a complex game with two groups we have to get rid of (scum and cult) I would think there is a chance that there is more than just a doctor left in terms of power roles. According to the mafia scum site they said that games with cults are sometimes hard to balance. My gut feeling tells me that Doggin might have given us more than just a doc/cop/vig as a way of making it more fair for the town.

I have a final coming up soon. I should be back in a couple of hours.

[Marcellus Wallace]

With such a complex game with two groups we have to get rid of (scum and cult) I would think there is a chance that there is more than just a doctor left in terms of power roles. According to the mafia scum site they said that games with cults are sometimes hard to balance. My gut feeling tells me that Doggin might have given us more than just a doc/cop/vig as a way of making it more fair for the town.

I have a final coming up soon. I should be back in a couple of hours.

Oh and I just want to add I don't think the doc should reveal yet.