SackSEER 2013 and FO pieces on Mingo, Jordan, and Werner

[SenorGato]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2013/futures-olbs-dion-jordan-and-barkevious-mingo

 

That's the piece on Jordan and Mingo. 

 

 

 

Dion Jordan

Depending whom you ask, Jordan reminds analysts and scouts of two pros. The first group cites Jordan’s versatility as an edge rusher and athleticism and skill at covering backs, tight ends, and slot receivers. It reminds them of Julian Peterson before his Achilles’ tear. This is why my buddy Josh Norris at Rotoworld and NFL.com believes Smith can have success as the LEO in the 4-3 that Gus Bradley will use in Jacksonville.

The second group believes Jordan has only scratched the surface of his potential as a pass rusher. The 6-foot-6, 248-pounder from Oregon ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash, a 4.35-second short shuttle, and a 7.02-second three-cone drill at the NFL Combine. His 40, short shuttle, and 122-inch broad jump were among the best performances in each drill.

A former scout like Jeremiah believes that if Jordan were let loose as a pass rusher, he could become a dominant edge rusher along the lines of Aldon Smith. Jordan sees this in his own game and has stated that if he could dictate the scheme he'll play in the NFL then it would be as a 3-4 outside linebacker so pass rushing would be his primary duty.

I think both comparisons are valid and this is what makes Jordan a hot prospect this spring. Here’s a play against an I-formation run where the linebacker shows off that NFL athleticism. This is not a special play in terms of impact on the field, but it’s a play that illustrates Jordan’s athleticism to become as an NFL-caliber pass rusher and run-stopper.

 

Intro to theMingo part:

 

 

Jordan is the better all-around player, but I think Barkevious Mingo has an inherently more destructive presence. Whether he can refine this talent is a question that looms larger than it does for Jordan. At the same time, I watch Mingo and wonder if three years from now he won’t be “the road less traveled by.”

If you think Jordan was a special athlete, the 6-foot-4, 241-pound Mingo one-ups the Oregon linebacker in the 40 (4.58 seconds), the three-cone drill (6.84 seconds), the broad jump (128 inches), and the vertical leap (37 inches). Only Mingo’s 4.39-second short shuttle doesn’t win in this head-to-head contest of quickness and burst, and it’s only four hundredths of a second slower.

This initial step and change of direction leaps off the screen and it’s apparent in a variety of on-field situations.

 

 

SackSEER:

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/sackseer-2013

 

Last week, Matt Waldman covered both Mingo and Dion Jordan in his Futures column. Based on his scouting, he noted that Jordan was close to a sure thing with all-around talent at the outside linebacker position, while Mingo was a bit more of a high-risk, high-reward draft pick because his on-field technique doesn't quite match his athleticism and explosiveness.

Ironically, SackSEER has the exact opposite opinion. When it comes strictly to sack production, SackSEER sees Jordan as a high-risk, high-reward draft pick whose on-field production in college never quite matched his measurables, while Mingo is SackSEER's number-one edge rusher prospect for 2013. Mingo outrates Jordan in every single one of the elements in SackSEER, both the Combine drills and the college production measures.

Mingo is somewhat analogous to Jevon Kearse. Like Kearse coming out of Florida, Mingo has outstanding athleticism and a lot of passes defensed. Mingo’s workouts were consistently excellent -— his forty-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, and three cone were all well above average for the position. As was also the case with Kearse, Mingo has only lukewarm sack production. Some contend that Mingo’s production dropped this year because he was asked to rush the passer much less than in seasons past. Edge rushers with less production than Mingo have gone on to be stars at the position, so a team selecting Mingo -— even with a fairly high draft pick -— is making a solid gamble.

 

Jamie Collins come out to the 8th best prospect ever with SackSEER. Mingo is the top guy but I'm rushing and didn't finish.

 

There's also a piece on Werner:

 

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2013/futures-des-bjoern-werner-and-damontre-moore

 

 

 

As a football fan, odds are high that you at least had a brief love affair with professional wrestling. Mine lingered a while. It was an obsession lasting long enough that when I think of defensive ends, they remind me of the ultimate "heels" from professional wrestling promotions: big, bad, freakish athletes capable of putting an end to their opponents with one swift and powerful move.

It’s no coincidence that Bruiser Brody and Superstar Billy Graham, who starred as collegiate defensive ends -- and had brief NFL careers -- fit the mold perfectly. This is because defensive ends embody the essence of what it means to be the "heel." They’re the opponents you love to hate and secretly want to cheer. It's the feeling that you're doing something wrong, which is what also makes it so right.

Florida State’s Bjoern Werner and Texas A&M’s Damontre Moore are two collegiate defensive ends in this draft with the potential to join the ranks of NFL heels. Both juniors are in the range of 6-foot-4 and 260 pounds, both are early-round prospects noted for their athleticism, and both possess the upside to develop into technically capable 4-3 pass rushers and run defenders.

Although regarded among many as one-two in this class of defensive ends, the difference in potential is starker than their standing in most pre-draft positional rankings. The similarities these players share with physical dimensions, roles in scheme, and pre-draft grades also make it worthwhile to profile these two ends side-by-side.

Moore has all the physical traits to develop into an NFL starter, but I prefer both Werner’s current skill and his future upside. Werner can become a special player, and I think it becomes more apparent when using Moore as a foil for comparison.

 

They're all good, informative reads. 

 

 

[bitonti]

reading this article makes me believe Mike Lombardi and the Browns go Mingo at 6. Lombardi loves size/speed. 

[CrazyCarl40]

This article sums up my worst fear that Jordan won't be there at 9.

[sirlancemehlot]

Werner is going to be better than anyone realizes.  He's fallen down draft charts for absolutely no reason I can fathom.  He went from top 5 a month ago to late first round after having an excellent combine.  I dont get it.  He's not injury prone, not slow, not in trouble, one source says he takes plays off while three more say he's all motor...leads me to believe that there's a bit of spin, smoke and mirrors at play, as there is before any draft.  Maybe Bit has an update on something i'm missing.  All the tape i've seen shows Werner's  a man among boys.  he's got better production and better athleticism than guys now being ranked above him.  What gives?

[flgreen]

I get a kick out of this rising and falling stuff.  It has nothing to do what the teams are thinking.  The teams have scouts that watch film on these guys all year.  The only thing that might make a player rise or fall after the season is the Combine, or his pro day.

 

Most of the NFL scribes don’t really have a clue who most of these players are or what they can do.  Then they watch some film, or talk to some one in a FO who’s blowing smoke up their butt, and suddenly they are risers and fallers