Jetsfan80 Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/nfldk2k13breakoutbust/ryan-tannehill-pierre-garcon-break-2013-antonio-gates-danario-alexander-disappoint Chris Ivory, New York Jets As of this writing, 27 running backs are projected to score more standard points than Chris Ivory this season, surprising given the uncertainty at quarterback for the Jets and the lack of proven options on the roster. Whoever gets carries for the Jets won't finish the season as the 28th-best running back in fantasy, and Ivory looks to be the favorite, although yet another injury (he's played just 12 games the past two years) -- this time a hamstring -- has kept him sidelined throughout camp at this point. After all, as disappointing or frustrating as Shonn Greene was to own last year, he finished 14 spots ahead of Ivory's preseason projection rank. Last season, the Jets called designed rushes on 46.4 percent of plays from scrimmage, fifth-highest in the NFL. They weren't elite running the football, but anything was better than when they passed; the Jets' 3.8 yards per rush ranked 23rd last season, compared to 6.4 yards per pass attempt (28th in NFL). Factor in Mark Sanchez's proclivity for the interception, and they could have run even more. Sanchez threw a pick every 25.2 attempts, ranked 31st out of 32 qualified quarterbacks. Maybe Geno Smith breaks out right away, but the Jets' offense will likely need to run the ball to be effective at least in the beginning. So the Jets will run, but will Ivory? Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight both failed to seize opportunities last season, prompting the team to acquire Ivory and Mike Goodson in the offseason. All four rushers have at least 112 career rushes, but none have more than Ivory's 256 (all with the Saints), so there's a decent enough sample size to compare here. It should be noted that Goodson still hasn't reported to camp following an arrest of drug and gun charges in the spring, further thinning the ranks. Even if Goodson shows up, the numbers among this foursome back Ivory pretty strongly, since he averages better than a half-yard per rush more than the other three for his career. Since entering the league in 2010, Ivory has averaged 5.1 yards per carry. How many of the 62 active running backs with at least 200 rushes have a better average than Ivory? Three: Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller and Adrian Peterson. That's it. Shonn Greene's 4.0 ranks 42nd over that span, while neither Goodson, McKnight or Powell average better than 4.5 yards per rush in their careers. It's not finesse running, either, which will no doubt please Rex Ryan and fantasy owners alike. Ivory's 2.4 yards after contact per rush ranks fifth among the aforementioned backs with at least 200 career carries. His style of running has been effective moving the chains, though some of that may be attributed to letting defenses focus on Drew Brees. Still, Ivory has rushed for a first down on 28.1 percent of his career totes. Neither Powell, Goodson nor McKnight is even at 20 percent. Provided Ivory gets healthy, he's the man to watch in this backfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 I thought he got locked up and made a run for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenseed4 Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 Fantasy circles (okay, Rotoworld) blurbed him as being a high risk/high reward RB2. I'll believe it when I see it, and by "it" I mean him not riding a bicycle. [and here's a fun fact I just read in response to JF80's bold: Jammall Charles ranks 6th for ypc OF ALL TIME...the five players in front of him are all QBs] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizard King Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 It's kind of apples to oranges, comparing his opportunities running the ball for Drew Brees compared to Sanchez. We're not exactly scaring defensive backs up here. Like for example, Adrian Peterson behind Tavaris Jackson and then when Favre joined Minnesota. And that's AP. Ivory ain't AP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted August 7, 2013 Author Share Posted August 7, 2013 It's kind of apples to oranges, comparing his opportunities running the ball for Drew Brees compared to Sanchez. We're not exactly scaring defensive backs up here. Like for example, Adrian Peterson behind Tavaris Jackson and then when Favre joined Minnesota. And that's AP. Ivory ain't AP. True. Plus fantasy success is all about volume. Ivory is expected to get a ton of carries which will increase his fantasy value greatly. Doesn't necessarily mean he's a big-time producer for us unless he keeps up that high ypc average he's been toting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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