The 4-3 with Pryor Down At Linebacker - and the 2-3-6 Swarm

[32EBoozer]

Nice Job with this artice at http://www.ganggreennation.com/2015/10/14/9534243/the-2-3-6-and-pryor-to-linebacker-where-richardson-fits-in

 

The 4-3 with Pryor Down At Linebacker - and the 2-3-6 Swarm

By Xes&Os  @mediasres on Oct 14, 2015, 6:00p 19 

 

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I finally had a chance to watch the Miami game film, and I came away with some interesting perceptions. Before the re-watch I stumbled upon this odd statistical fact: Coples's defensive snap percentages have been on the decline every game of the year, finally coming in at a very low 23% against Miami. I was re-watching a game wondering about just what was being done without Coples. In fact Pace too remained only in the 50s as well:

Interestingly enough, Mauldin played more snaps than Coples did. Hmm. Is Coples stepping into the Bowles doghouse? Is this injury driven? Many of us wondered if either of our inside linebackers were going to be losing snaps to DBs under Bowles's innovative approach. Could it be that it's our outside linebackers who at times will?

We have to keep in mind these kinds of shifts may very well be game plan specific, by team, and not indicative of overall philosophy, but some trends have started to build in my mind. And with Richardson coming back and speculation of what the defense might look like with his addition, the Miami game may have provided some clues, at least for some portion of what the defense might look like.

The 2-3-6 Swarm

Okay, I'm going to call it the 2-3-6 just for the sake of personnel grouping, and not line up position. One of the most interesting formations early in the game on long downs was that Bowles pulled Coples and Douzable off the field and loaded up with DBs. You can see here on a 3rd and 15, with Mauldin down on the line.

The DBs and LBers formed a nice deep shell in front of the first down marker (below):

It was the very same 2-3-6 personnel grouping on 3rd and 10, before the false start (below) .The Jets attacked from this position.

This was very clearly a long down package Bowles had drawn up for Miami. You can see the same Mauldin, Big Cat, Wilkerson pass rush in the 2nd quarter on 3rd and 19 (below):

And then again on 3rd and 10 in the 2nd quarter (below):

 

It's not hard to imagine what happens here when Richardson comes back. Mauldin out, Richardson in. 3-2-6. I'm not saying that this will always be the case, of course, but I think we see the skeleton of one of Bowles's DB heavy long down packages, with Richardson. Both Outside Linebackers off the field, the DBs and ILBers threaten blitz or deep drop zones.

The 4-3 - Calvin Pryor to Linebacker

More interesting than that is the 4-3 the Jets were running at times with Pryor dropping down into OLBer position. I saw some of this in previous games, but here it really struck me. Here it is with Douzable:

With Snacks on the field the Jets can afford to be light at linebacker with Pryor in case of run. Skrine is important in this 3 CB system. The big question is if the CBs can hold their man and not stress Gilchrist too much at safety. Here's the same play from the end zone, Harris playing true middle linebacker, a position he perhaps is most suited for.

I didn't take notes, but it sure felt like the Jets were in this or similar 4-3s a great deal, especially while the game was still in question. The consequences for Richardson returning are simple. Instead of Douzable, Richardson. It would look like we are seeing at least the possibilities for a 4-3 base defense on non-passing downs, and at the other end of the spectrum, how long downs may be approached with heavy DBs, and a possible need for Harrison if you are going to play light.

Worth noting, the two feature secondary players in these schemes that I suppose will be swapped out for Richardson - Douzable and Mauldin - happened to receive the two worst pass rush grades from PFF, both of them holding a -1.4 for the Miami game. You aren't going to see Richardson get a -2.8 pass rush grade.

Trend - Coples

The big surprise, if this is a foreshadowing, is that Coples may be the one of the players losing snaps, in fact the entire 3-4 base might become less common with Richardson returning. Of course this could all be gameplan vs Miami, and we are just seeing one page of the big Todd Bowles library. But, it does seem interesting enough that we could be seeing lots of Skrine, and Pryor dropping down into a linebacker position, something the Jets maybe can afford with serious beef on the line. In the larger picture though, we can't help but see that Coples is not only losing snaps this year, potentially complicated with Richardson returning, he also lost snaps last year to both Babin and Pace. Below is the game by game snap % for Coples 2013-2015 so far:

The drop off from 2013 is even more as he missed the first two games of the year - he had 6 games playing over 90% of snaps. In 2014 he had only 2 games over 80%. This year he is hampered by an elbow injury (thx Crackback), but on this crowded DL one wonders if he is going to get much higher than the low 60 percentiles on average, given Bowles's reputation for loving DB packages.

This means that Douzable, Coples, Pace and Mauldin can be prepared with specific attack packages, which is something I felt I was seeing out there. Also, if the Jets do move towards the single safety 4-3, putting Coples in for Snacks in passing downs could a formidable DL as well, but Coples turns into a specialist to some degree. And though I think he looks better than he ever has as a Jet under Bowles, he looks lively and strong, is he really that good at rushing the passer that he's going to be pulling significant snaps from other players and force scheme?

On the back end it's a little concerning in the 4-3 approach to see so much riding on the play of Gilchrist. As much as fans have loved Skrine, he's been very close to being burned several times - he strikes me as a hit or miss, aggressive defender. And we all know that Cromartie is hit or miss as well. That means a poor coverage guy in zone in Gilchrist responsible for large portions of the field (Gilchrist blew another TD in zone against Miami) with two over-play CBs in the scheme. There is a precarious thinness to the back of the Jets defense that when they start facing top QBs might really present problems. The good news is that possibly the best Jet lineman is joining the attack, perhaps just enough to allow Bowles to blitz himself to enough pressure to balance out the single 

[Gas2No99]

Good read but nothing groundbreaking from what myself, and others as well, called out back in June-Aug after the draft and the base talent for our defense was set. 

Thats why many of us were crushed at the time of Anotnio Allen's injury because he would be playing that DimeBacker hybrid role that Pryor has admirably stepped up to so far this season.

only difference is that i called for putting Coples instead of Douzable at DE in the 4-3 front. Bowles is really showing his ability to play with different pieces and it's LOTS of fun to watch. Skrine is one of our more valuable pieces under Bowles/Rodgers' D.

[32EBoozer]

Good read but nothing groundbreaking from what myself, and others as well, called out back in June-Aug after the draft and the base talent for our defense was set. 

Thats why many of us were crushed at the time of Anotnio Allen's injury because he would be playing that DimeBacker hybrid role that Pryor has admirably stepped up to so far this season.

only difference is that i called for putting Coples instead of Douzable at DE in the 4-3 front. Bowles is really showing his ability to play with different pieces and it's LOTS of fun to watch. Skrine is one of our more valuable pieces under Bowles/Rodgers' D.

Agree.... AA would have fit perfectly into that DimeBacker(nicely coined phrase) position. We could really use him in Week 7 vs. Gronk.

[#27TheDominator]

Coples has an elbow injury and is wearing a huge brace.  I think he has worn one before, so I'm not sure if that is a new thing.  He got hurt against the Eagles.  It's quite possible that is why his snap counts have been shrinking.

[drdetroit]

4-3 with Pryor lined as linebacker is basically a nickel defense.

[Augustiniak]

coples will not be on the team next year.  he's had enough time to develop and improve.  maudlin's turn.

[peekskill68]

It also seems like Douzable is seeing the field alot more under Bowles than he did in years past.  He, Mauldin and Reilly seem to have marginalized Coples...