GM success rates.

[doitny]

there is a lot of talk about how JD is at drafting so i thought i would look at the draft success of probably one of the best franchises this decade. the Pittsburgh Steelers.

from 2000-2019, 20 years they are 205-113- 2 .646 wpct. 2-1 SBs 12 playoff years, one losing season. pretty damm good.

for the purpose of this exercise there were 16 game seasons which 5 years was 80 games. anyone who played under 80 games i considered a bust. over 80 a hit. we can argue this but i think getting a 2nd contract is s good idea of a good player or a hit on the pick.

2000- 5 out of 9 picks. 55%

2001- 1-7 14%

2002- 4-4 50%

2003- 2-5 40%

2004- 2-8 25%

2005- 3-8 37%

2006- 2-9 22%

2007- 4-8 50%

2008- 2-7 28%

2009- 6-10 60%

2010- 3-10 30%

2011- 2-7 28%

2012- 2-9 22%

2013- 2-9 22%

2014- 1-9 11%

2015- 2-8 25%

2016- 1-7 14%

2017- 4-8 50%

2018- 1-7 14%

2019- 1-9 11%

thats a total of 45-158 28% 

thats actually amazing to hit on 28% and be that good for all those years. and i was lenient on the 80 games. if someone had 70 games and started 3 years i put them down as a hit. 

now for JD last year is too early but for 3 years....

2020 0-9 0%

2021 2-10 20% MC2 AVT

2022 5-7 71%

total 9-26 34%

see even the best teams are not hitting like you think they do. like the Steelers who obviously hit on QB and a few key guys but the bulk of there picks were backup dept pieces. so if we get about 2 starters from this draft thats about what most teams do. 

[Nixhead]

4 hours ago, doitny said:

there is a lot of talk about how JD is at drafting so i thought i would look at the draft success of probably one of the best franchises this decade. the Pittsburgh Steelers.

from 2000-2019, 20 years they are 205-113- 2 .646 wpct. 2-1 SBs 12 playoff years, one losing season. pretty damm good.

for the purpose of this exercise there were 16 game seasons which 5 years was 80 games. anyone who played under 80 games i considered a bust. over 80 a hit. we can argue this but i think getting a 2nd contract is s good idea of a good player or a hit on the pick.

2000- 5 out of 9 picks. 55%

2001- 1-7 14%

2002- 4-4 50%

2003- 2-5 40%

2004- 2-8 25%

2005- 3-8 37%

2006- 2-9 22%

2007- 4-8 50%

2008- 2-7 28%

2009- 6-10 60%

2010- 3-10 30%

2011- 2-7 28%

2012- 2-9 22%

2013- 2-9 22%

2014- 1-9 11%

2015- 2-8 25%

2016- 1-7 14%

2017- 4-8 50%

2018- 1-7 14%

2019- 1-9 11%

thats a total of 45-158 28% 

thats actually amazing to hit on 28% and be that good for all those years. and i was lenient on the 80 games. if someone had 70 games and started 3 years i put them down as a hit. 

now for JD last year is too early but for 3 years....

2020 0-9 0%

2021 2-10 20% MC2 AVT

2022 5-7 71%

total 9-26 34%

see even the best teams are not hitting like you think they do. like the Steelers who obviously hit on QB and a few key guys but the bulk of there picks were backup dept pieces. so if we get about 2 starters from this draft thats about what most teams do. 

Your bust rate is too high.  So in 5 seasons at 16 games a season that’s 80 games and you stated anyone that played under 80 games is a bust. So your miss 1 game or more  and your a bust? Can’t agree with that stat. 

[doitny]

2 hours ago, Nixhead said:

Your bust rate is too high.  So in 5 seasons at 16 games a season that’s 80 games and you stated anyone that played under 80 games is a bust. So your miss 1 game or more  and your a bust? Can’t agree with that stat. 

 

7 hours ago, doitny said:

thats actually amazing to hit on 28% and be that good for all those years. and i was lenient on the 80 games. if someone had 70 games and started 3 years i put them down as a hit. 

if your a backup are you a hit? i didnt include Hall, Echols or Ashton as hits either. of course none of the Jets played 80 games so i only counted starters. 

Rashard Mendenhall for one i counted as a hit even though he played 72 games. he had 4 years as a starter and 2 1,000 yd seasons.

Tyler Matakevich ( who the hell is this guy) played in 120 games but started 1 game is a bust. was a ST player.

so 80 games wasnt a hard line.

[Sonny Werblin]

The problem is that if you have 8 draft picks and those picks are in rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6 and 6 and you hit on 2 out of 8 for 25% it’s not the same as hitting on 25% if your 8 picks were 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5 and 6. 

This type of analysis only works if you weight the hit and miss rates separately by round. For example, a hit in the first 2 rounds is expected so a hit there should have less weight. A miss in the first two rounds is bad and should get the highest weight for misses. Rounds 3 and 4 should have equal weight for miss and hit. Rounds 5 and 6 should give little weight to a miss and a high weight to a hit.

Someone should develop an analytic for this. It would be a good measure of a GM’s ability to draft.