doitny Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 there is a lot of talk about how JD is at drafting so i thought i would look at the draft success of probably one of the best franchises this decade. the Pittsburgh Steelers. from 2000-2019, 20 years they are 205-113- 2 .646 wpct. 2-1 SBs 12 playoff years, one losing season. pretty damm good. for the purpose of this exercise there were 16 game seasons which 5 years was 80 games. anyone who played under 80 games i considered a bust. over 80 a hit. we can argue this but i think getting a 2nd contract is s good idea of a good player or a hit on the pick. 2000- 5 out of 9 picks. 55% 2001- 1-7 14% 2002- 4-4 50% 2003- 2-5 40% 2004- 2-8 25% 2005- 3-8 37% 2006- 2-9 22% 2007- 4-8 50% 2008- 2-7 28% 2009- 6-10 60% 2010- 3-10 30% 2011- 2-7 28% 2012- 2-9 22% 2013- 2-9 22% 2014- 1-9 11% 2015- 2-8 25% 2016- 1-7 14% 2017- 4-8 50% 2018- 1-7 14% 2019- 1-9 11% thats a total of 45-158 28% thats actually amazing to hit on 28% and be that good for all those years. and i was lenient on the 80 games. if someone had 70 games and started 3 years i put them down as a hit. now for JD last year is too early but for 3 years.... 2020 0-9 0% 2021 2-10 20% MC2 AVT 2022 5-7 71% total 9-26 34% see even the best teams are not hitting like you think they do. like the Steelers who obviously hit on QB and a few key guys but the bulk of there picks were backup dept pieces. so if we get about 2 starters from this draft thats about what most teams do. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nixhead Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 4 hours ago, doitny said: there is a lot of talk about how JD is at drafting so i thought i would look at the draft success of probably one of the best franchises this decade. the Pittsburgh Steelers. from 2000-2019, 20 years they are 205-113- 2 .646 wpct. 2-1 SBs 12 playoff years, one losing season. pretty damm good. for the purpose of this exercise there were 16 game seasons which 5 years was 80 games. anyone who played under 80 games i considered a bust. over 80 a hit. we can argue this but i think getting a 2nd contract is s good idea of a good player or a hit on the pick. 2000- 5 out of 9 picks. 55% 2001- 1-7 14% 2002- 4-4 50% 2003- 2-5 40% 2004- 2-8 25% 2005- 3-8 37% 2006- 2-9 22% 2007- 4-8 50% 2008- 2-7 28% 2009- 6-10 60% 2010- 3-10 30% 2011- 2-7 28% 2012- 2-9 22% 2013- 2-9 22% 2014- 1-9 11% 2015- 2-8 25% 2016- 1-7 14% 2017- 4-8 50% 2018- 1-7 14% 2019- 1-9 11% thats a total of 45-158 28% thats actually amazing to hit on 28% and be that good for all those years. and i was lenient on the 80 games. if someone had 70 games and started 3 years i put them down as a hit. now for JD last year is too early but for 3 years.... 2020 0-9 0% 2021 2-10 20% MC2 AVT 2022 5-7 71% total 9-26 34% see even the best teams are not hitting like you think they do. like the Steelers who obviously hit on QB and a few key guys but the bulk of there picks were backup dept pieces. so if we get about 2 starters from this draft thats about what most teams do. Your bust rate is too high. So in 5 seasons at 16 games a season that’s 80 games and you stated anyone that played under 80 games is a bust. So your miss 1 game or more and your a bust? Can’t agree with that stat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doitny Posted April 28 Author Share Posted April 28 2 hours ago, Nixhead said: Your bust rate is too high. So in 5 seasons at 16 games a season that’s 80 games and you stated anyone that played under 80 games is a bust. So your miss 1 game or more and your a bust? Can’t agree with that stat. 7 hours ago, doitny said: thats actually amazing to hit on 28% and be that good for all those years. and i was lenient on the 80 games. if someone had 70 games and started 3 years i put them down as a hit. if your a backup are you a hit? i didnt include Hall, Echols or Ashton as hits either. of course none of the Jets played 80 games so i only counted starters. Rashard Mendenhall for one i counted as a hit even though he played 72 games. he had 4 years as a starter and 2 1,000 yd seasons. Tyler Matakevich ( who the hell is this guy) played in 120 games but started 1 game is a bust. was a ST player. so 80 games wasnt a hard line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sonny Werblin Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 The problem is that if you have 8 draft picks and those picks are in rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6 and 6 and you hit on 2 out of 8 for 25% it’s not the same as hitting on 25% if your 8 picks were 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5 and 6. This type of analysis only works if you weight the hit and miss rates separately by round. For example, a hit in the first 2 rounds is expected so a hit there should have less weight. A miss in the first two rounds is bad and should get the highest weight for misses. Rounds 3 and 4 should have equal weight for miss and hit. Rounds 5 and 6 should give little weight to a miss and a high weight to a hit. Someone should develop an analytic for this. It would be a good measure of a GM’s ability to draft. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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