Lil Bit Special Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/anatomy-of-a-player-phil-hughes/ Introduction Phil Hughes is one of the most talked-about players in the game today. The soon-to-be 22-year-old pitcher pitched in 13 regular season games and two more in the postseason for the Yankees in 2007 and started this year in the rotation starting before going on the DL after six starts. It was a rocky start to the season for Hughes, who compiled an even 9.00 ERA and 1.00 K/BB ratio. He is close to ready to begin throwing again, though it will take some time before he returns to the majors after that. His struggles, especially this year, are exactly why he is so talked about. Pretty much everyone has a theory as to what might be going wrong with Hughes and our very own Paul Nyman has created a nice starting list of possible solutions. I am not an expert on pitching mechanics, but I do know a thing or two about PITCHf/x data, so I am going to throw in my two cents to the discussion. Velocity Drop Much that has been written has been about Phil Hughes losing several ticks on his fastball from around 94-95 mph to 91-92 mph late last year and into this year. Depending on who you read, either this drop is real or maybe 94-95 was only his max effort fastball. Whatever the case, even Yankees GM Brian Cashman was concerned. An explanation was given by Hughes himself that the dip in velocity was due to coming off an injury. But when the 2008 season started and Hughes was still throwing in the low 90s other explanations were needed. Now I am not going to be able to tell you whether Hughes is going to be pitching closer to 95 mph than 90 mph when he comes back, but I can say that this year his fastball has been averaging just over 92 mph, which is almost exactly the same that is was while PITCHf/x was watching him last year. It certainly is possible that when he comes back later this year or maybe next year, he will be back averaging in the mid-90s, but because that isn't the direction the data is pointing. Right now, I am going to evaluate Hughes with the nearly exactly average fastball speed he has shown. Arm Angle The other thing people spend a lot of time looking at is Hughes' arm angle. It appears that his arm angle has risen since 2006, though the question is how much? Some people think that it needs to go even higher for him to be successful. I have no data from Hughes for 2006, but I do have data from 2007 and 2008, so let's take a look at his release point and see if anything has changed. While there is a slight move to the left (as seen by the catcher), the big thing that jumps out is that his release point has become exceptionally small. To see just how small it is, I have come up with a new metric I am calling repeatability that simply measures the variance of a pitcher's release point. Here are the results for the 455 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 pitches this year. You can see that while the mean is just over a foot, the mode is at nine inches. The difference is due to pitchers who like to alter their arm angles and drop down sidearm. So where does Hughes' rank? He is on the extremely low end at 3.4 inches of variation. That is remarkably small, though I couldn't word it better than Dan Fox, who called it "about the size of a postcard." So if someone tells you that Hughes doesn't have a consistent release point, they are wrong. Because his release point is so steady, you would think that comes from a very repeatable delivery and, indeed, that is reportedly one of his best traits. In fact, you have to wonder if his release point is too consistent. The way he is throwing right now, the batter knows exactly where the ball is coming from. That might be helping him pick up the ball earlier and give him more time to determine the pitch type. This is something that needs future investigation, so consider it a theory right now. What does Hughes throw? Now that we have looked at his release point, let's move on to what Hughes throws. Hughes throws a fastball, curveball, slider and change-up. Here is his movement plot. The slider he only throws to right-handed batters and the change he reserves for lefties. Neither of these pitches are used often, however, as Hughes throws them less than 10 percent of the time combined. His fastball he throws about two-thirds of the time and his curveball nearly a quarter of the time. Starting with his fastball, we have already seen that Hughes' current velocity is near league average, but it also has been described as having late life, especially while he was in the minors. This could be a result of his lower arm angle, which would have produced more side spin and less back spin than the fastball he is throwing today. Currently, Hughes' fastball is very straight, with only about 4.5 inches of horizontal movement in towards a right-handed batter. This is nearly an inch less than league average. His fastball does "rise" a bit more, checking in with about 11.5 inches vertical movement, which is about two inches more than league average. Therefore, I would not describe the pitch as having great movement. The result is hitters are knocking it around as he has a 0.33 runs100 for his fastball this year (negative numbers are good for pitchers). His curve is a knuckle curve, which has just an amazing amount of movement on it. He is generating more than 7 inches of horizontal and more than 8 inches of downward vertical movement. This blows away the league average in both directions. No wonder why he is throwing his curve so often. Sadly, there is some potentially bad news about his curve. Because of the large movement, his curveball isn't staying in the same plane as his fastball in either direction. Here is a side view and a top view of the pitch. Most pitchers who throw over the top also throw a 12 to 6 curve. Ben Sheets is a great example of this. But because Hughes throws a knuckle curve, his curve isn't over the top; it is almost exactly between 1 to 7 and 2 to 8 from his perspective. Apparently this pitch, too, has undergone some alteration, as in an interview in 2006 Hughes himself claimed the pitch was 12 to 6 or 1 to 7 depending on if he wanted to throw the pitch for a strike or not. Previous work indicates that horizontal movement isn't all that useful for curveballs and, even worse, I wonder if that might be helping to tip the pitch to batters. While he isn't giving the pitch away from the release point, because it is so constant hitters might have more time to identify the hump or the large horizontal movement. Hughes' slider is more of a slurve thrown at 79 mph with a lot of horizontal movement. When Hughes was drafted, he didn't throw a curve, but the Yankees taught him the pitch to reduce strain on his arm. I really think this is a good pitch for Hughes and if the Yankees will let him, I would recommend him using it more often. He has good command and should be able to get plenty of swings and misses from right-handed batters if he starts the pitch on the outside corner and has it tail away. His change-up is more of an issue, however. He doesn't seem to be able to replicate the spin of his fastball and his control with it leaves something to be desired. This is certainly a pitch that he should continue working on, as it would be nice to have an effective off-speed pitch that moved down and away from left-handed batters. Still, he is a very young pitcher and this is something that he should be able to work on as he matures. Conclusions Phil Hughes has a huge amount of upside, but there still are concerns. If he continues to not use his slider and change-up, he effectively becomes a two pitch pitcher. Now despite what you might have heard, starters can make it in this league with only two pitches as long as they are both quality pitches and if he can control them well. Hughes' control doesn't seem to be an issue despite his spate of walks this year. Everything that I read makes me think his control will be between good and great. The quality, though, might be an issue. The fastball that Hughes has shown so far is average at best. He might be able to spice up the movement with a lowered arm angle or make some mechanical adjustments to get back some lost velocity, but if it continues as it is right now, major league batters will hit it hard. His curve has extraordinary movement but maybe too much movement for his own good. If hitters don't have to worry about the slider and the change, identifying the curve will be that much easier because I don't see a good solution to how he can disguise the pitch any better than he already is. I feel like it is paramount that he throws his slider or change-up more often (preferably both) to keep hitters honest. Even if neither of these pitches are plus pitches right now, the slider at least has that potential. Most of Phil Hughes' future is ahead of him and he should turn into a great pitcher, but he isn't there yet. Time will tell if he makes it or not. Josh Kalk is a physics and math geek who can also be found blogging at http://www.baseball.bornbybits.com/blog/blog.html. He enjoys good conversations about baseball and can be reached at joshkalk@gmail.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor99 Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 Hall of Famer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeebers Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 Hall of Famer. I am not sure about Hall of famer, but at least better than 95% of pitchers in the bigs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBrick Wall Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 Glad you guys can judge him after a month of poor pitching. I forget, who was the best pitcher on the Yankees last September and in the playoffs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseballnut Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 Glad you guys can judge him after a month of poor pitching. I forget, who was the best pitcher on the Yankees last September and in the playoffs? He is soon to be the #3 starter of the Cleveland Indians we the yankees jump in at the last minute and make him the key player in package of players for CC Sabathia The Homerun hitting pitcher AL Strikeout Leading 2007 Cy Young Award Winner. In a Desperate need for pitching the Yankees pull the trigger and trade Hughes / catcher Jesus Montero / outfielder Austin Jackson / and second basemen Justin Snyder . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBrick Wall Posted June 22, 2008 Share Posted June 22, 2008 He is soon to be the #3 starter of the Cleveland Indians we the yankees jump in at the last minute and make him the key player in package of players for CC Sabathia The Homerun hitting pitcher AL Strikeout Leading 2007 Cy Young Award Winner. In a Desperate need for pitching the Yankees pull the trigger and trade Hughes / catcher Jesus Montero / outfielder Austin Jackson / and second basemen Justin Snyder . HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Only in your wet homer Cleveland Indians dreams does that trade ever happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lil Bit Special Posted June 23, 2008 Author Share Posted June 23, 2008 He is soon to be the #3 starter of the Cleveland Indians we the yankees jump in at the last minute and make him the key player in package of players for CC Sabathia The Homerun hitting pitcher AL Strikeout Leading 2007 Cy Young Award Winner. In a Desperate need for pitching the Yankees pull the trigger and trade Hughes / catcher Jesus Montero / outfielder Austin Jackson / and second basemen Justin Snyder . I say the mods make a deal with baseballnut. If he's right, we pos rep bomb him. If he's wrong, we neg rep bomb him. and change his name to sabathia52jets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj meadowlands Posted June 23, 2008 Share Posted June 23, 2008 I can't wait til Phil comes back and ****ing dominates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lil Bit Special Posted June 23, 2008 Author Share Posted June 23, 2008 I can't wait til Phil comes back and ****ing dominates. me too. to shut up yankee and mets fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted June 23, 2008 Share Posted June 23, 2008 I can't wait til Phil comes back and ****ing dominates. AAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor99 Posted June 23, 2008 Share Posted June 23, 2008 I can't wait til Phil comes back and ****ing dominates. That would be great. What in the world gives you hope that that is ever going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted June 23, 2008 Share Posted June 23, 2008 That would be great. What in the world gives you hope that that is ever going to happen? I cant wait for Craig Swan, Bill Pulsipher, Paul Wilson to come back and dominate. That will be great too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor99 Posted June 23, 2008 Share Posted June 23, 2008 I cant wait for Craig Swan, Bill Pulsipher, Paul Wilson to come back and dominate. That will be great too. Don't forget Brien Taylor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBrick Wall Posted June 24, 2008 Share Posted June 24, 2008 You two need to stop spreading your anti-Yankee bias and realize that none of those guys ever were the prospect that Hughes is and never dominated a level of professional baseball as he has everywhere he's gone. Except maybe Brien Taylor, whose career was shot by the injury... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor99 Posted June 24, 2008 Share Posted June 24, 2008 You two need to stop spreading your anti-Yankee bias and realize that none of those guys ever were the prospect that Hughes is and never dominated a level of professional baseball as he has everywhere he's gone. Except maybe Brien Taylor, whose career was shot by the injury... Baseball is littered with AAAA players. What makes you think that Hughes isn't another one of these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted June 24, 2008 Share Posted June 24, 2008 You two need to stop spreading your anti-Yankee bias and realize that none of those guys ever were the prospect that Hughes is and never dominated a level of professional baseball as he has everywhere he's gone. Except maybe Brien Taylor, whose career was shot by the injury... I would be fine if Yankee fans just expected him to be "good" or "very good". But we have a person here who said Hughes had "Hall of Fame stuff", and another said he can't wait until he "dominates'. How many rookie pitchers come in and "dominate"? Very few, and Hughes has NOT b een reflective of that all. It is not an "Anti Yankee" bias with thses comments. it it is an anti-insane bias. Good God, let the kid just merely be good before the expectations are to "dominate". The pitchers that have "dominated" lower levels onlyto merely average are many and scattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeebers Posted June 24, 2008 Share Posted June 24, 2008 You two need to stop spreading your anti-Yankee bias and realize that none of those guys ever were the prospect that Hughes is and never dominated a level of professional baseball as he has everywhere he's gone. Except maybe Brien Taylor, whose career was shot by the injury... you are incorrect. Paul Wilson was probably a better prospect than Hughes. Wilson had dominating stuff and actually threw 95+ and not rumors of a 95MPH fastball. Unfortunately, injuries took away his career. That's the thing about young pitcher, for every one that makes it, there are 99 others with great stuff who doesn't for whatever reason. Hughes could be good, people need to give him time. No one "DOMINATES" or makes the Hall of Fame right off the bat. Unless you're Doc or maybe even Volquez, but those are extremely rare cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBrick Wall Posted June 24, 2008 Share Posted June 24, 2008 Baseball is littered with AAAA players. What makes you think that Hughes isn't another one of these? Dan Giese is an AAAA player. Phil Hughes isn't. Minor league numbers do translate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBrick Wall Posted June 24, 2008 Share Posted June 24, 2008 you are incorrect. Paul Wilson was probably a better prospect than Hughes. Wilson had dominating stuff and actually threw 95+ and not rumors of a 95MPH fastball. Unfortunately, injuries took away his career. That's the thing about young pitcher, for every one that makes it, there are 99 others with great stuff who doesn't for whatever reason. Hughes could be good, people need to give him time. No one "DOMINATES" or makes the Hall of Fame right off the bat. Unless you're Doc or maybe even Volquez, but those are extremely rare cases. Paul Wilson never dominated a professional level like Hughes has. Hughes has an insane 10.18 K/9 in the minors, something which Wilson is about 2.5 K/9 away from. No one except Mets fans and the NY media expected Wilson to be an ace. Also Hughes has been great just about as often as he's been terrible. He was the Yankees best pitcher last September and October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted June 24, 2008 Share Posted June 24, 2008 Paul Wilson never dominated a professional level like Hughes has. Hughes has an insane 10.18 K/9 in the minors, something which Wilson is about 2.5 K/9 away from. No one except Mets fans and the NY media expected Wilson to be an ace. Also Hughes has been great just about as often as he's been terrible. He was the Yankees best pitcher last September and October. OK, so based on all of this you said, please predict Hughes' numbers for 2009 and his career. It should be easy based on what you indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor99 Posted June 24, 2008 Share Posted June 24, 2008 Dan Giese is an AAAA player. Phil Hughes isn't. Minor league numbers do translate. Not for every player, mike. Why don't you wait until they translate until you anoint someone as dominant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Dierking Posted June 24, 2008 Share Posted June 24, 2008 Not for every player, mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaBrick Wall Posted June 24, 2008 Share Posted June 24, 2008 Not for every player, mike. Why don't you wait until they translate until you anoint someone as dominant? Stop putting words in my mouth. I never said he was going to the HOF. I never said he was dominant. He is NOT a AAAA player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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