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ESPN Predictions for Jets at 20


BklynJetsFan85

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10 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I think it's more that the league is riddled with wrong guesses. No sense in betting the farm on Petty, who - after a full season - hasn't given the coach + GM enough confidence to say anything positive about him without an even greater amount of criticism.

Basically, if Petty develops into the starter we'd all love, and another QB draft pick is made just in case he doesn't, we should be able to live with that. It's taken so long to get a (good) franchise QB I wouldn't bemoan an extra bump in the road to get there. Besides, if a 2016 high pick prospect is any good, but wholly unneeded because of Petty, we could always trade him for a higher pick than we used to take him in the first place.

I'm saying we don't waste a first rounder on a qb who is iffy and considered a project when we have so many other glaring needs and there's better players available - players that can contribute right now. grab a qb somewhere in 2nd-4th round if anything.

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On 3/30/2016 at 5:10 PM, BklynJetsFan85 said:

The Packers had Farve, one the the greatest QBs ever to play the game and Rodgers rode the bench for 3 years... the packers were in a position to do that... we aren't.

Let's say we could draft a QB as good as Favre but he would have to sit for 3 years before being ready.  Would you take him w/ our #1 pick?  Heck, would you trade up for him at #1 overall if it cost us 2 #1s, a #2 and Mo?

I know I would.

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9 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Let's say we could draft a QB as good as Favre but he would have to sit for 3 years before being ready.  Would you take him w/ our #1 pick?  Heck, would you trade up for him at #1 overall if it cost us 2 #1s, a #2 and Mo?

I know I would.

IF WE KNEW - we don't know though.

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Just now, TuscanyTile2 said:

Of course we don't know.  But I'm challenging your point that "the packers were in a position to do that... we aren't."

 

The packers were contenders, they had a franchise QB, one of the best QBs of all time... they grabbed him at like 26 i believe, not sure... we aren't in same position as that team... we aren't contenders... not yet... we have gaping holes on the offensive line, haven't had a legit pass rusher in a long time, and honestly grabbing a CB in first round is safer... why reach for a QB who might end up sucking. I don't trust QBs - we have a terrible history of drafting QBs. It turns my stomach every time i hear about us considering taking a qb in first unless it's in top 5 (sanchez should have stayed in school another year) - i didn't like the pick when we made it

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4 minutes ago, BklynJetsFan85 said:

The packers were contenders, they had a franchise QB, one of the best QBs of all time... they grabbed him at like 26 i believe, not sure... we aren't in same position as that team... we aren't contenders... not yet... we have gaping holes on the offensive line, haven't had a legit pass rusher in a long time, and honestly grabbing a CB in first round is safer... why reach for a QB who might end up sucking. I don't trust QBs - we have a terrible history of drafting QBs. It turns my stomach every time i hear about us considering taking a qb in first unless it's in top 5 (sanchez should have stayed in school another year) - i didn't like the pick when we made it

The Patriots were considered perennial losers until they weren't.

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On March 30, 2016 at 9:00 PM, BklynJetsFan85 said:

Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia: He may not last until the 20th pick. I know one team ahead of the Jets that loves the kid. He'd be right out of central casting for the Jets, considering their need at rush linebacker. Floyd is an explosive edge rusher with enough athleticism to drop into coverage. The downside is that he's only 244 pounds, rather lean on a 6-foot-6 frame. Chances are he'll be a pass-rushing specialist as a rookie, giving him a year to bulk up for every-down duty.

Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State: He's generally regarded as the fourth-best tackle prospect behind Laremy Tunsil, Ronnie Stanley and Jack Conklin. The top three are seen as left tackle prospects, while Decker (6-foot-7, 310 pounds) is projected as a right tackle. It wouldn't bode well for incumbent right tackle Breno Giacomini if the Jets draft Decker, who probably would be a Day 1 starter. The Jets could save $4.4 million by releasing Giacomini.

Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky: Spence has more red flags than a rain-soaked Indy 500. He was thrown out of Ohio State and the Big Ten for testing positive twice for Ecstasy, prompting a transfer to EKU, where he had an alcohol-related arrest last May. We'll keep him on the list because of his pass-rushing prowess, but it would be a classic big risk/big reward pick at No. 20.

Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State: Yes, a cornerback. The Jets need a replacement for Antonio Cromartie, and let's not forget Darrelle Revis will be 31 by the start of the season. Apple, an impressive 6-foot-1, has a chance to develop into a No. 1 corner. The Jets are OK with Buster Skrine and Marcus Williams as the No. 2 and No. 3 corners, but Apple can solidify the position beyond 2016. Plus, he'd be an instant favorite among New York's headline writers.

 

Now I'd be okay with 3 of those picks at 20, i feel Spence is a major reach and isn't worth the risk. I like Floyd - needs to bulk up a little bit though. Taylor Decker would make a lot of sense - save 4.4 mill by releasing Giacomini... the kid can start from day 1 and be the start of a rebuild on the line...and lastly Eli Apple - I've heard a lot of good stuff about this guy and we do need a replacement for Cromartie (personally i like Marcus Williams to fill that role, but the jury is still out for that). Apple they say has very good work ethic and say he's very aggressive in coverage (which i feel might attract penalties) but he's a fighter with the ball in the air and you gotta respect that to a degree. Good size and strength will allow him to compete with physical receivers - i would like the pick if they grabbed him.

Floyd is getting no recognition around here, just think of the versatility of this guy. The league and more importantly division are pass first, and more often than not, 2 of 3 downs are passes not runs so he will be seeing the field plenty.

He is more than a pass rushing specialist, and watching him come off the edge he is an absolute beast that turns heads on film. He was asked to play ILB at Georgia and cover backs and TEs. He could move all over the front 7. I don't think he is too thin, he is now perfect for the modern NFL.

I'd only guess it's the Falcons that love him, but if he is there at 20, I'm taking him over anyone minus Wentz and Goff.

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14 hours ago, BklynJetsFan85 said:

I'm saying we don't waste a first rounder on a qb who is iffy and considered a project when we have so many other glaring needs and there's better players available - players that can contribute right now. grab a qb somewhere in 2nd-4th round if anything.

The rationale is that, unless everything else falls in line just-so, that there are no other glaring needs that mount to a hill of beans without a QB.

Matt Forte is going to be a viable starting RB for 1 or 2 seasons if we're lucky. If you even like Ferguson as our starting LT (which I don't), he's also a 1 year solution. David Harris, 1-2 years max. We'd be lucky if we get more than 1-2 starting seasons out of Revis. And so on. You can't fill every position except QB and think it really matters. A young franchise QB, however, buys you a decade-long window to piece other things together. 

You get one when you have the shot of getting one. You can't just go to the QB store to get one after you're done accumulating all the other pieces just right. The very idea, in hiring a former scout as our GM, is hopefully he has a better idea of which raw guys have a good chance of developing and which are just athletes who will likely never be good pro players.

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7 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

You get one when you have the shot of getting one. You can't just go to the QB store to get one after you're done accumulating all the other pieces just right. The very idea, in hiring a former scout as our GM, is hopefully he has a better idea of which raw guys have a good chance of developing and which are just athletes who will likely never be good pro players.

7 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

 

i dont think that QB is lynch, i don't think Mac thinks it either - we will see though, wont we?

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Just now, Sperm Edwards said:

I guess. I'm not up on these guys so I willingly take other peoples' opinions on them. I've never seen a single one of Lynch's games.

here's the scouting report on him as per nfl.com

 

Overview

Lynch was lost a bit in the recruiting process after sitting out half of his senior season due to a knee injury suffered in the preseason, allowing Memphis head coach Justin Fuente to nab the Florida product from the under the noses of in-state schools. He redshirted his first year on campus, but then stepped in to become a three-year starter for Fuente. Lynch went through some ups and downs in his first year as a starter, throwing nine touchdowns against 10 interceptions and completing just 58 percent of his passes for about 2,000 yards in 2013. He improved greatly as a sophomore, leading his team to a 10-win season and American Athletic Conference championship. He received second team All-AAC honors that season by completing 63 percent of his passes for 3,031 yards and 22 scores. Lynch exploded onto the national scene during his junior year, garnering a Manning Award finalist nod, first team All-ACC honors, and team MVP after leading the Tigers to an 8-0 start before the team struggled down the stretch losing to Navy, Houston, and Temple. During the team’s hot streak, Lynch beat SEC foe Ole Miss with a 39-for-53, 386-yard, three-touchdown performance. But the next time he faced a SEC defense, Auburn took him to task in the Birmingham Bowl, forcing him to complete just 16 of 37 pass attempts for a measly 106 yards and an interception. Despite finishing the season on a down note, the departure of Fuente for Virginia Tech and positive accolades received from the NFL scouting community led Lynch to take his talents to the next level.

Analysis

Strengths

Very tall, athletic body with ability to scan over the top. Elite foot quickness for a tall quarterback. Can maneuver quickly out of a busy pocket and away from trouble, but desires to keep passing option alive. Sets up in the pocket quickly and generally keeps feet "throw ready". More functional scrambler than "tuck and run" quarterback. Sacked just 15 times over 477 drop backs. Able to win with his feet when he needs to. Has a quick release to overcome his slight wind­-up. Has enough arm to drive the ball into restricted windows. Has enough arm to attack downfield while on the move. Makes good decisions. Rarely takes the cheese when cornerbacks try and bait him. Displays qualities of a field leader and isn't easy to rattle. Yards per attempt have exploded over his last two years. Can gain chunk yards as zone-read quarterback and will appeal to boot­-action teams. Will be challenging to defend in the red area. Took better care of the football cutting turnovers down from 16 last season to just four this year. Completed 54.6 percent on intermediate throws (11­20) and 44.9 percent on deep balls (21-plus yards) including 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Weaknesses

Needs to improve ball placement for catch­-and­-run throws. Inability to throw with desired accuracy on the move forced him to leave yards and plays on the field. Must learn to better anticipate routes and stay ahead in the rep. Doesn't quite have the quickness through progressions that he will need in the pros. Has to learn to move defenders around with his eyes to open throwing lanes. At times, crowds targets against the sideline. Needs to stop babying play-­action passes and cut them loose. Consistency of arm strength has been overstated. Inconsistent weight transfer in delivery forces him to muscle some throws. Perimeter throws lack velocity and will nose­dive on him. His ball comes out with wobble and isn’t always the most catchable. Touch throws over inside linebackers needs work.

NFL Comparison

Marcus Mariota

Bottom Line

While the hype around "dual threat" quarterbacks has subsided, Lynch possesses the size and athleticism to make NFL teams take a second look. Unlike other size/speed quarterbacks like Vince Young and Colin Kaepernick, Lynch prefers to extend passing plays with his feet rather than bolting from the pocket, but he is still likely to make plenty of plays with his feet over the long haul. Lynch shows the ability to read defenses and make smart decisions, but not yet at an NFL starting level. While he has the physical tools to start right away, a team who is willing to allow him to sit and study his craft for a year could reap maximum rewards in the future.
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7 minutes ago, BklynJetsFan85 said:

here's the scouting report on him as per nfl.com

 

Overview

Lynch was lost a bit in the recruiting process after sitting out half of his senior season due to a knee injury suffered in the preseason, allowing Memphis head coach Justin Fuente to nab the Florida product from the under the noses of in-state schools. He redshirted his first year on campus, but then stepped in to become a three-year starter for Fuente. Lynch went through some ups and downs in his first year as a starter, throwing nine touchdowns against 10 interceptions and completing just 58 percent of his passes for about 2,000 yards in 2013. He improved greatly as a sophomore, leading his team to a 10-win season and American Athletic Conference championship. He received second team All-AAC honors that season by completing 63 percent of his passes for 3,031 yards and 22 scores. Lynch exploded onto the national scene during his junior year, garnering a Manning Award finalist nod, first team All-ACC honors, and team MVP after leading the Tigers to an 8-0 start before the team struggled down the stretch losing to Navy, Houston, and Temple. During the team’s hot streak, Lynch beat SEC foe Ole Miss with a 39-for-53, 386-yard, three-touchdown performance. But the next time he faced a SEC defense, Auburn took him to task in the Birmingham Bowl, forcing him to complete just 16 of 37 pass attempts for a measly 106 yards and an interception. Despite finishing the season on a down note, the departure of Fuente for Virginia Tech and positive accolades received from the NFL scouting community led Lynch to take his talents to the next level.

Analysis

Strengths

Very tall, athletic body with ability to scan over the top. Elite foot quickness for a tall quarterback. Can maneuver quickly out of a busy pocket and away from trouble, but desires to keep passing option alive. Sets up in the pocket quickly and generally keeps feet "throw ready". More functional scrambler than "tuck and run" quarterback. Sacked just 15 times over 477 drop backs. Able to win with his feet when he needs to. Has a quick release to overcome his slight wind­-up. Has enough arm to drive the ball into restricted windows. Has enough arm to attack downfield while on the move. Makes good decisions. Rarely takes the cheese when cornerbacks try and bait him. Displays qualities of a field leader and isn't easy to rattle. Yards per attempt have exploded over his last two years. Can gain chunk yards as zone-read quarterback and will appeal to boot­-action teams. Will be challenging to defend in the red area. Took better care of the football cutting turnovers down from 16 last season to just four this year. Completed 54.6 percent on intermediate throws (11­20) and 44.9 percent on deep balls (21-plus yards) including 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Weaknesses

Needs to improve ball placement for catch­-and­-run throws. Inability to throw with desired accuracy on the move forced him to leave yards and plays on the field. Must learn to better anticipate routes and stay ahead in the rep. Doesn't quite have the quickness through progressions that he will need in the pros. Has to learn to move defenders around with his eyes to open throwing lanes. At times, crowds targets against the sideline. Needs to stop babying play-­action passes and cut them loose. Consistency of arm strength has been overstated. Inconsistent weight transfer in delivery forces him to muscle some throws. Perimeter throws lack velocity and will nose­dive on him. His ball comes out with wobble and isn’t always the most catchable. Touch throws over inside linebackers needs work.

NFL Comparison

Marcus Mariota

Bottom Line

While the hype around "dual threat" quarterbacks has subsided, Lynch possesses the size and athleticism to make NFL teams take a second look. Unlike other size/speed quarterbacks like Vince Young and Colin Kaepernick, Lynch prefers to extend passing plays with his feet rather than bolting from the pocket, but he is still likely to make plenty of plays with his feet over the long haul. Lynch shows the ability to read defenses and make smart decisions, but not yet at an NFL starting level. While he has the physical tools to start right away, a team who is willing to allow him to sit and study his craft for a year could reap maximum rewards in the future.

Thanks!

Well just looking at the weaknesses (in this one writeup). Not going through his progressions -- presumably he means WR/TE progressions and doesn't count WR1>RB>run as "progressions" because that's what we had in 2015. I can deal with a little inaccuracy on the run if he's accurate in the pocket, since it could then get better in time. But it says his ball placement isn't so great there either. 

Tough call, but then there aren't typically elite prospects without flaws when you're down at #20.

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2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Thanks!

Well just looking at the weaknesses (in this one writeup). Not going through his progressions -- presumably he means WR/TE progressions and doesn't count WR1>RB>run as "progressions" because that's what we had in 2015. I can deal with a little inaccuracy on the run if he's accurate in the pocket, since it could then get better in time. But it says his ball placement isn't so great there either. 

Tough call, but then there aren't typically elite prospects without flaws when you're down at #20.

From what i have heard - his combine was underwhelming - im very torn on the guy, We have such sh*t luck in drafting QBs, that to draft one in the first always makes my stomach turn - it is understandable

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his college stats from senior year:

 

 
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Just now, BklynJetsFan85 said:

From what i have heard - his combine was underwhelming - im very torn on the guy, We have such sh*t luck in drafting QBs, that to draft one in the first always makes my stomach turn - it is understandable

Agree, that is a totally understandable concern. Yeah what happened in the past truly have nothing to do with Maccagnan & co. Still, we could have said that about anyone before them, and yet the green curse has infected them all. :bag: 

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21 hours ago, BklynJetsFan85 said:

The packers were contenders, they had a franchise QB, one of the best QBs of all time... they grabbed him at like 26 i believe, not sure... we aren't in same position as that team... we aren't contenders... not yet... we have gaping holes on the offensive line, haven't had a legit pass rusher in a long time, and honestly grabbing a CB in first round is safer... why reach for a QB who might end up sucking. I don't trust QBs - we have a terrible history of drafting QBs. It turns my stomach every time i hear about us considering taking a qb in first unless it's in top 5 (sanchez should have stayed in school another year) - i didn't like the pick when we made it

Yeah, but Rodgers was expected to go as high as #3 overall. It's not like he was expected to go between picks 20-30 and they picked him at #24. 

The equivalent wouldn't be taking Lynch at #20; it would be us taking Goff at #20 (or trading up 3-5 slots to get him).

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15 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yeah, but Rodgers was expected to go as high as #3 overall. It's not like he was expected to go between picks 20-30 and they picked him at #24. 

The equivalent wouldn't be taking Lynch at #20; it would be us taking Goff at #20 (or trading up 3-5 slots to get him).

The better comparison is Flacco, somewhat similar to Lynch too and would be the ideal scenario. He did pretty well right away. 

That report says he has a quick release but it looked pretty laboured to me in the highlights, may have just been the motion. It was actually what was concerning me, especially with our offensive line. I wouldn't feel comfortable with a raw rookie playing behind Brick and Breno, I've some hope that Brick's year may be an aberration because he's not too old for a LT, but he seems to have been regressing for a while.

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3 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

The better comparison is Flacco, somewhat similar to Lynch too and would be the ideal scenario. He did pretty well right away. 

That report says he has a quick release but it looked pretty laboured to me in the highlights, may have just been the motion. It was actually what was concerning me, especially with our offensive line. I wouldn't feel comfortable with a raw rookie playing behind Brick and Breno, I've some hope that Brick's year may be an aberration because he's not too old for a LT, but he seems to have been regressing for a while.

The hope for Brick was in not regressing further in 2015. His prior excuse was playing next to, and having to cover up for, the likes of Brian Winters and/or Oday Aboushi.

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15 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The hope for Brick was in not regressing further in 2015. His prior excuse was playing next to, and having to cover up for, the likes of Brian Winters and/or Oday Aboushi.

I don't remember him nearly as bad as he was last season. I think PFF mentioned it was the first time he'd ever graded anywhere close to that low. I could be thinking the season before though - The Geno years were pretty much a sh*tshow of depression and alcohol. 

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9 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

I don't remember him nearly as bad as he was last season. I think PFF mentioned it was the first time he'd ever graded anywhere close to that low. I could be thinking the season before though - The Geno years were pretty much a sh*tshow of depression and alcohol. 

Well I was hoping he was gone before last year and I didn't get my wish. Which is the whole reason people used our crappy LGs as his built in excuse. If he was playing well, he wouldn't have needed such excuses.

No he wasn't quite as low in their 2014 rankings, but it was still crap. This is from 10/31/2014 (and keep in mind as you're reading this, he was worse in 2015 despite having far more help around him, to put to rest the "because he was also helping with others' assignments" nonsense):

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2014/10/is_jets_left_tackle_dbrickashaw_ferguson_declining_not_if_you_ask_rex_ryan.html

This season, PFF rates Ferguson 43rd of 72 tackles in the NFL. He is 21st in pass blocking and 61st in run blocking. Ferguson was seventh overall in the tackle ratings in 2012, and 42nd last year. From 2009-11, he was fifth, fourth and 25th.

He has allowed just one sack this year, per PFF, but has given up five quarterback hits. That ranks 10th-most among all tackles. Ferguson has allowed 15 quarterback hurries, which ranks 15th-most at among tackles. Ferguson’s 21 total pressures allowed (sacks plus hits plus hurries) rank 15th-most among tackles across the league, according to PFF.

Then again, PFF rates him with a 95.2 in pass-blocking efficiency, which measures pressures allowed on a per-snap basis, with a weighting toward sacks allowed. Ferguson’s 95.2 is 23rd-best among tackles – middle of the road.

Last year, Ferguson was 36th in pass-blocking efficiency, at 93.9. He surrendered 43 pressures. He is on pace to surrender 42 this season.

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17 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yeah, but Rodgers was expected to go as high as #3 overall. It's not like he was expected to go between picks 20-30 and they picked him at #24. 

The equivalent wouldn't be taking Lynch at #20; it would be us taking Goff at #20 (or trading up 3-5 slots to get him).

I didn't know he was one of the droppers... though i didn't compare the 2 - someone else did. I was saying the packers were just in a much better position than us to take a QB there... they took the BPA. Lynch would not be the BPA

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