Your top 5s/sleeper/bust

[Lray]

Hey fellas,

 

Behold my final Top 5 Big Board for the 2017 draft. This is my first year going deep and watching tape rather than highlight reels. For this reason I can't proclaim complete infallibility so please forgive the limitations of my ignorance. In saying this I've been obsessing over the Jets and the NFL for more than a decade and I'm pretty confident in my judgements. My grading breakdown is rated by how high I think a player should be taken and not necessarily the likely reality of where they will go. For instance I've got Pat Mahomes graded as a 2nd-3rd round prospect. I fully expect him to go earlier but don't have value for him until later day 2. 

 

So without further ado,

 

 

 

 

QB:

 

Deshaun Watson, mid 1st

Mitch Trubisky, mid 1st

Deshon Kizer, 2nd

Pat Mahomes, 2nd-3rd

Brad Kaaya, 3rd-4th

 

 

I'm not high on any QB in this draft and really hope we don't pick one up. I could live with Dobbs in the 5th but that's about it. Kizer has dropped down my list from #1 after hearing about how he considered giving up football mid season when things weren't going well. I've got a mid 1st round grade on Watson because it's where I expect him to go but I reckon he's only good value in the 2nd. Trubisky has the same grade, the Sanchez comparisons give me PTSD. Mahomes is a wildman, he throw more balls off balance than not. Kaaya's deep ball accuracy is non existent. David Njoku was the best thing about Kaaya's tape.

 

 

 

RB:

 

Leonard Fournette, Top 10

Joe Mixon, mid 1st

Christian McCaffrey, mid 1st

Dalvin Cook, mid 1st

Kareem Hunt, 2nd-3rd

 

 

Fournette is #1 on my wishlist. Actually a CBS predicted double trade back would be #1 but that's not going to happen. As far as talent goes, Mixon, Cook and McCaffrey are difficult to separate. Cook's fumbling issues put him at #4. I love Kareem Hunt but his value is right around where I want a DB, LB, TE or Edge. In a dream scenario he'd be there in the 5th.

 

TE:

 

OJ Howard, 1st

David Njoku, 1st

Jake Butt, 2nd-3rd

Evan Engram, 2nd-3rd

Bucky Hodges, 2nd-3rd

 

 

I think Jake Butt is the only surprise here. He's a quality footballer with tons of experience with Harbough in Michigan. I'd like to see him taken in the late 3rd but think he's got 2nd round quality. The only issue I have with Bucky Hodges is his tape. I've never seen him play in line. I genuinely don't understand why he's considered a TE when he spends all his time on the outside. Love the measurables though. Evan Engrams size is underwhelming but his blocking is encouraging along with his athleticism. He feels a bit too much of a tweener for the Jets right now. 

 

WR:

 

Mike Williams, mid 1st

Juju Schuster Smith, mid 1st

John Ross, mid 1st

Corey Davis, mid 1st

Zay Jones, 2nd

 

 

Mike Williams is getting a lot of hate right now. His competitiveness and go up and get it ability remind me of Dez Bryant. I love Juju. I reckon he'll fall to the 2nd and someone will get a steal. Davis I feel is a little over rated and Ross jumps him in the rankings because of his elite skillset. Ross' injuries are a massive worry for me though. Zay Jones represents a bunch of about 10 more receivers on the same level in a really deep WR class.

 

T:

 

Garett Bolles, 1st

Cam Robinson, 1st

Ryan Ramczyk, 2nd

Antonio Garcia, 2nd-3rd

Taylor Moton, 3rd-4th

 

 

Bolles is by far my favourite here. His age isn't an issue for me. I've drastically changed my opinion on Cam Robinson. I think he adapts his game well to mirror his opponents and makes up for his lack of agility with technique. Ramczyk is a tree. I like him at RT but don't see anything elite about him. I like Garcia's athleticism but he needs to ad weight and play with more tenacity. Moton I like as a raw talent, needs work.

 

G:

 

Forrest Lamp, mid 1st

Dan Feeney, 2nd

Isaac Asiata, 2nd-3rd

Jermaine Eleumanor, 2nd-3rd

Dion Dawkins, 2nd-3rd

 

 

I haven't watched much tape on the G position. Lamp's aggression and strength put's him at the top. I like the whole Utah line on tape and was impressed with Asiata at the combine. Ditto for Eleumanor. I really like Dawkins long arms which give him flexibilty to play T too but like Asiata and Eleanor, he's very raw. 

C:

 

Pat Elflein, 2nd

Ethan Pocic, 2nd

Jon Toth, 3rd

JJ Dielmann, 3rd-4th

Tyler Orlosky, 3rd-4th

 

 

Genuinely have a hard time grading centres. I watched a decent amount of tape on the top 3 guys. I'm not sure what I was watching but I was impressed.

 

EDGE:

 

Myles Garrett, Top 10

Derek Barnett, Top 10

Solomon Thomas, 1st

Tarrell Basham, 2nd

Taco Charlton, 2nd

 

 

Myles Garrett is sex on legs but in being so highly rated has huge bust potential. He will be number 1 overall and rightly so. I'm big on Barnett. I don't really see the stiffness some people talk about. He's got genuine burst off the line and doesn't try to jump the snap like some others. He wasn't great at the combine but I liked him in drills. I like Thomas some but he's exactly the type of player we don't need. Tarrell Basham's tape is very impressive and he surprised me in drills at the combine too. I'm a Michigan fan but can't get behind the massive hype surrounding Taco Charlton. He's just not a 1st rounder in my eyes.

 

OLB:

 

TJ Watt, mid 1st

Ryan Anderson, mid 1st

Takkarist McKinley, 2nd

Tim Williams, 2nd-3rd

Zach Cunningham, 3rd-4th

 

 

I think the comparisons with JJ hold TJ back as opposed to inflating his stock. He's got a relentless motor and has natural football instincts. I'd love to see us trade back and take him late in the 1st. Ryan Anderson was the most impressive player on the Bama D this year. Watching tape of his teammates always reminds me of just how much he's involved in positive plays. Takk McKinley scares me. His hyped athletic prowess was shown to be a non factor at the combine. His rawness and lack of football intelligence scares me. Tim Williams jumps snaps and benefits massively from the rest of the Bama D. Good player, overrated, don't want him. Zach Cunninghams tackling technique, whilst looking impressive, lacks impact and will be shown up in the pros. This is a major deal for me.

 

LB:

 

Reuben Foster, 1st

Raekwon McMillan, 2nd

Alex Anzalone, 3rd

Jarred Davis, 3rd

Jordan Evans, 4th

 

 

Alex Anzalone and Jordan Evans are the most interesting prospects for me at LB. Anzalone's injury history is a big deal and Evans might not have the football IQ to succeed at the interior LB spot in the NFL. McMillan doesn't have much of a spark but is a solid LBer. Foster's OK but he's a Bama LBer and benefits from both the name and system. I wasn't impressed with Davis.

 

DT:

 

Jonathan Allen, 1st

Malik McDowell, 2nd

Caleb Brantley, 2nd

Chris Wormley, 3rd-4th

Montravious Adams, 4th

 

 

I've been hearing some opinions that I tend to agree with about Allen's potential in the NFL. I don't think he's Top 10. Malik McDowell can be awesome, see his tape against Notre Dame. His effort is highly worrying but with the right coaching I think he can be elite. For obvious reasons I've not watched much tape on DT this year so can't really expand on my grades on the rest. 

 

CB:

 

Marshon Lattimore, 1st

Tre'davious White, 1st

Quincy Wilson, 1st

Kevin King, 1st

Cameron Sutton, 2nd

 

There's so little to separate the quality between the top corners this year and you could chop and change any of these names around and not be wrong. Sidney Jones would probably have been my #1 before the injury and I'd still love to see us take him in the 3rd regardless. I hope we target White by trading back. Mel Kiper said he would be surprised to see 25 corners go in the first 3 rounds. I tend to agree.

 

S:

 

Malik Hooker, Top 10

Jamal Adams, 1st

Jabrill Peppers, 1st

Obi Melinfonwu, 2nd

Tedric Thompson, 3rd

 

Malik Hooker's ceiling is limitless. He's an incredibly impressive ballhawk. The average lifespan for a GM after drafting an SS in the first round is 1 1/2 years. I hope McCaggnan knows this and doesn't draft Adams at #6. I like him but 6 is too high. As a Michigan fan I'm biased on Peppers and my grade is based on talent alone. I don't think he's an appropriate pick until the 20's to a team that can afford to make luxury picks. Obi Melinfonwu's tape is awful. I'm baffled by the 1st round hype. I absolutely love Tedric Thompson. His tackling is a huge issue but his coverage skills are 2nd to none. If someone can teach him to tackle they'll have a 1st round talent on their hands.

 

 

 

That's it in a nutshell. I've got plenty of opinion about players graded outside the top 5 but I'm happy to leave this as it is. Only injuries or new personal information will change my ranking until the big day. Feel free to post your own Top 5's.

 

Peace

 

*Disclaimer. Tear it apart if you want but remember it's a personal list and comes with a heavy IMO tag.

[Paddywagon]

21 hours ago, Tinstar said:

@paddywagon, did you forget about Malik Hooker or do you just not rate him that highly at safety ?

I didn't forget about him. I think Malik Hooker is an average safety who's being overrated because of his interceptions. He's not good or bad, just average. If a team takes him the 3rd/4th, they'll probably be happy. If a team takes him in the top 10, they're getting a bust.

[Tinstar]

55 minutes ago, Paddywagon said:

I didn't forget about him. I think Malik Hooker is an average safety who's being overrated because of his interceptions. He's not good or bad, just average. If a team takes him the 3rd/4th, they'll probably be happy. If a team takes him in the top 10, they're getting a bust.

What about the 2 Ohio State CBs ? 

[New York Mick]

Bust. Every early drafted QB and Ross

 

[Paradis]

23 hours ago, Lray said:

Hey fellas,

 

Behold my final Top 5 Big Board for the 2017 draft. This is my first year going deep and watching tape rather than highlight reels. For this reason I can't proclaim complete infallibility so please forgive the limitations of my ignorance. In saying this I've been obsessing over the Jets and the NFL for more than a decade and I'm pretty confident in my judgements. My grading breakdown is rated by how high I think a player should be taken and not necessarily the likely reality of where they will go. For instance I've got Pat Mahomes graded as a 2nd-3rd round prospect. I fully expect him to go earlier but don't have value for him until later day 2. 

 

So without further ado,

 

 

 

 

QB:

 

Deshaun Watson, mid 1st

Mitch Trubisky, mid 1st

Deshon Kizer, 2nd

Pat Mahomes, 2nd-3rd

Brad Kaaya, 3rd-4th

 

 

I'm not high on any QB in this draft and really hope we don't pick one up. I could live with Dobbs in the 5th but that's about it. Kizer has dropped down my list from #1 after hearing about how he considered giving up football mid season when things weren't going well. I've got a mid 1st round grade on Watson because it's where I expect him to go but I reckon he's only good value in the 2nd. Trubisky has the same grade, the Sanchez comparisons give me PTSD. Mahomes is a wildman, he throw more balls off balance than not. Kaaya's deep ball accuracy is non existent. David Njoku was the best thing about Kaaya's tape.

 

 

 

RB:

 

Leonard Fournette, Top 10

Joe Mixon, mid 1st

Christian McCaffrey, mid 1st

Dalvin Cook, mid 1st

Kareem Hunt, 2nd-3rd

 

 

Fournette is #1 on my wishlist. Actually a CBS predicted double trade back would be #1 but that's not going to happen. As far as talent goes, Mixon, Cook and McCaffrey are difficult to separate. Cook's fumbling issues put him at #4. I love Kareem Hunt but his value is right around where I want a DB, LB, TE or Edge. In a dream scenario he'd be there in the 5th.

 

TE:

 

OJ Howard, 1st

David Njoku, 1st

Jake Butt, 2nd-3rd

Evan Engram, 2nd-3rd

Bucky Hodges, 2nd-3rd

 

 

I think Jake Butt is the only surprise here. He's a quality footballer with tons of experience with Harbough in Michigan. I'd like to see him taken in the late 3rd but think he's got 2nd round quality. The only issue I have with Bucky Hodges is his tape. I've never seen him play in line. I genuinely don't understand why he's considered a TE when he spends all his time on the outside. Love the measurables though. Evan Engrams size is underwhelming but his blocking is encouraging along with his athleticism. He feels a bit too much of a tweener for the Jets right now. 

 

WR:

 

Mike Williams, mid 1st

Juju Schuster Smith, mid 1st

John Ross, mid 1st

Corey Davis, mid 1st

Zay Jones, 2nd

 

 

Mike Williams is getting a lot of hate right now. His competitiveness and go up and get it ability remind me of Dez Bryant. I love Juju. I reckon he'll fall to the 2nd and someone will get a steal. Davis I feel is a little over rated and Ross jumps him in the rankings because of his elite skillset. Ross' injuries are a massive worry for me though. Zay Jones represents a bunch of about 10 more receivers on the same level in a really deep WR class.

 

T:

 

Garett Bolles, 1st

Cam Robinson, 1st

Ryan Ramczyk, 2nd

Antonio Garcia, 2nd-3rd

Taylor Moton, 3rd-4th

 

 

Bolles is by far my favourite here. His age isn't an issue for me. I've drastically changed my opinion on Cam Robinson. I think he adapts his game well to mirror his opponents and makes up for his lack of agility with technique. Ramczyk is a tree. I like him at RT but don't see anything elite about him. I like Garcia's athleticism but he needs to ad weight and play with more tenacity. Moton I like as a raw talent, needs work.

 

G:

 

Forrest Lamp, mid 1st

Dan Feeney, 2nd

Isaac Asiata, 2nd-3rd

Jermaine Eleumanor, 2nd-3rd

Dion Dawkins, 2nd-3rd

 

 

I haven't watched much tape on the G position. Lamp's aggression and strength put's him at the top. I like the whole Utah line on tape and was impressed with Asiata at the combine. Ditto for Eleumanor. I really like Dawkins long arms which give him flexibilty to play T too but like Asiata and Eleanor, he's very raw. 

C:

 

Pat Elflein, 2nd

Ethan Pocic, 2nd

Jon Toth, 3rd

JJ Dielmann, 3rd-4th

Tyler Orlosky, 3rd-4th

 

 

Genuinely have a hard time grading centres. I watched a decent amount of tape on the top 3 guys. I'm not sure what I was watching but I was impressed.

 

EDGE:

 

Myles Garrett, Top 10

Derek Barnett, Top 10

Solomon Thomas, 1st

Tarrell Basham, 2nd

Taco Charlton, 2nd

 

 

Myles Garrett is sex on legs but in being so highly rated has huge bust potential. He will be number 1 overall and rightly so. I'm big on Barnett. I don't really see the stiffness some people talk about. He's got genuine burst off the line and doesn't try to jump the snap like some others. He wasn't great at the combine but I liked him in drills. I like Thomas some but he's exactly the type of player we don't need. Tarrell Basham's tape is very impressive and he surprised me in drills at the combine too. I'm a Michigan fan but can't get behind the massive hype surrounding Taco Charlton. He's just not a 1st rounder in my eyes.

 

OLB:

 

TJ Watt, mid 1st

Ryan Anderson, mid 1st

Takkarist McKinley, 2nd

Tim Williams, 2nd-3rd

Zach Cunningham, 3rd-4th

 

 

I think the comparisons with JJ hold TJ back as opposed to inflating his stock. He's got a relentless motor and has natural football instincts. I'd love to see us trade back and take him late in the 1st. Ryan Anderson was the most impressive player on the Bama D this year. Watching tape of his teammates always reminds me of just how much he's involved in positive plays. Takk McKinley scares me. His hyped athletic prowess was shown to be a non factor at the combine. His rawness and lack of football intelligence scares me. Tim Williams jumps snaps and benefits massively from the rest of the Bama D. Good player, overrated, don't want him. Zach Cunninghams tackling technique, whilst looking impressive, lacks impact and will be shown up in the pros. This is a major deal for me.

 

LB:

 

Reuben Foster, 1st

Raekwon McMillan, 2nd

Alex Anzalone, 3rd

Jarred Davis, 3rd

Jordan Evans, 4th

 

 

Alex Anzalone and Jordan Evans are the most interesting prospects for me at LB. Anzalone's injury history is a big deal and Evans might not have the football IQ to succeed at the interior LB spot in the NFL. McMillan doesn't have much of a spark but is a solid LBer. Foster's OK but he's a Bama LBer and benefits from both the name and system. I wasn't impressed with Davis.

 

DT:

 

Jonathan Allen, 1st

Malik McDowell, 2nd

Caleb Brantley, 2nd

Chris Wormley, 3rd-4th

Montravious Adams, 4th

 

 

I've been hearing some opinions that I tend to agree with about Allen's potential in the NFL. I don't think he's Top 10. Malik McDowell can be awesome, see his tape against Notre Dame. His effort is highly worrying but with the right coaching I think he can be elite. For obvious reasons I've not watched much tape on DT this year so can't really expand on my grades on the rest. 

 

CB:

 

Marshon Lattimore, 1st

Tre'davious White, 1st

Quincy Wilson, 1st

Kevin King, 1st

Cameron Sutton, 2nd

 

There's so little to separate the quality between the top corners this year and you could chop and change any of these names around and not be wrong. Sidney Jones would probably have been my #1 before the injury and I'd still love to see us take him in the 3rd regardless. I hope we target White by trading back. Mel Kiper said he would be surprised to see 25 corners go in the first 3 rounds. I tend to agree.

 

S:

 

Malik Hooker, Top 10

Jamal Adams, 1st

Jabrill Peppers, 1st

Obi Melinfonwu, 2nd

Tedric Thompson, 3rd

 

Malik Hooker's ceiling is limitless. He's an incredibly impressive ballhawk. The average lifespan for a GM after drafting an SS in the first round is 1 1/2 years. I hope McCaggnan knows this and doesn't draft Adams at #6. I like him but 6 is too high. As a Michigan fan I'm biased on Peppers and my grade is based on talent alone. I don't think he's an appropriate pick until the 20's to a team that can afford to make luxury picks. Obi Melinfonwu's tape is awful. I'm baffled by the 1st round hype. I absolutely love Tedric Thompson. His tackling is a huge issue but his coverage skills are 2nd to none. If someone can teach him to tackle they'll have a 1st round talent on their hands.

 

 

 

That's it in a nutshell. I've got plenty of opinion about players graded outside the top 5 but I'm happy to leave this as it is. Only injuries or new personal information will change my ranking until the big day. Feel free to post your own Top 5's.

 

Peace

 

*Disclaimer. Tear it apart if you want but remember it's a personal list and comes with a heavy IMO tag.

Good read.

Some interesting differences between us. You don't have Humphrey listed, hey? Agree on a lot of fronts about QB, and good portion of defensive line and offensive line peeps. You should check out A. Jones RB from UTEP.

[Lray]

1 hour ago, Paradis said:

Good read.

Some interesting differences between us. You don't have Humphrey listed, hey? Agree on a lot of fronts about QB, and good portion of defensive line and offensive line peeps. You should check out A. Jones RB from UTEP.

I reckon Humphrey is in the top 15 CBs, maybe the top 10 at a stretch. I love his aggression but he's unpolished in coverage and in this class it really stands out. In any other year I would be more forgiving. I watched 1 game of Jones from this season. Anywhere other than draftbreakdown that you can see his tape?

[King P]

@Paradis

You gonna do one for Defense too?

[Paradis]

3 hours ago, King P said:

@Paradis

You gonna do one for Defense too?

yessir. I was gonna start a different thread but i guess we're laying down rubber here

[Paradis]

3 hours ago, Lray said:

I reckon Humphrey is in the top 15 CBs, maybe the top 10 at a stretch. I love his aggression but he's unpolished in coverage and in this class it really stands out. In any other year I would be more forgiving. I watched 1 game of Jones from this season. Anywhere other than draftbreakdown that you can see his tape?

I searched around online and found a few. Can't remember where but there some stuff out there.

Clearly i like Humphrey better than 80% of peeps i think. He's gonna surprise on draft day. I totally expect the jets to target him if they trade back in the first. 

[Lray]

I searched around online and found a few. Can't remember where but there some stuff out there.
Clearly i like Humphrey better than 80% of peeps i think. He's gonna surprise on draft day. I totally expect the jets to target him if they trade back in the first. 

Why's that? You think he's a Bowles type player or good scheme fit?


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Paddywagon]

23 hours ago, Tinstar said:

What about the 2 Ohio State CBs ?

Lattimore is an injury risk. Hamstrings for a cornerback who relies on speed are no joke. I don't think he's mechanically sound, not from a football standpoint but from a human physiology standpoint. Gareon Conley is good. He'll be a starter in the league for several years. He's a solid 2nd round pick imo.

[Paradis]

10 hours ago, Lray said:

Why's that? You think he's a Bowles type player or good scheme fit?


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

he reminds me of a raw-er Patrick Peterson, and fits Bowles scheme

[Paradis]

Defense-- 

CB: ...hardest group to rank. They're all different. I'm fighting the urge to rank Adoree #1 after reviewing film of all 5.
Q. Wilson
A. Jackson
M. Lattimore
M. Humphrey
T. White
Sleeper: Ezra Robinson (Ten State) 
Bust: Jourdan Lewis (mich)


Safety: ...not as impressed as others after a closer look.
M. Hooker
J. Adams
M. Williams (utah)
J. Jones (NC state)
B. Baker (wsh)
Sleeper: K. Nacua BYU
Bust: O. Melifonwu (ucon)... he should switch to WR. Takes terrible angles and can't tackle worth a lick


LB: ....underrated group
R. Foster
J. Davis (florida)
Z. Cunningham (vandy)
H. Reddick (temple)
T. Bowser (hou)
Sleeper: E. Lee (kansas state)
Bust: R. McMillan (osu)


EDGE/Pass Rush:
M. Garrett
T. Williams... think i'm the last one on this wagon
T. McKinley
C. Harris (mizzou) 
R. Anderson
Sleeper: E. Price (Pit)
Bust: J. Willis (kansas state)

DLINE: (not bothering with DE vs DT as I don't expect either to be big focus): 
M. Garrett... I have him on both, for obvious reasons
J. Allen
S. Thomas
T. Charlton
M. McDowell (mich state)
Sleeper: Jaleel Johnson (iowa)
Bust: D. Barnett
 

[AFJF]

On 4/12/2017 at 4:36 AM, T0mShane said:

When a baseball scout says a prospect has an ugly girlfriend, he means that the player has bad eyes at the plate. A reference to his vision. Like, he's got an ugly gf because he doesn't see well enough to know better. I have a vast knowledge of scouting lingo.

Kinda like when my shrink asks me if I'm "still a Jets" fan to avoid the term self-loathing.

[Jetster]

On April 11, 2017 at 9:35 PM, Lil Woody said:

I'm just gonna go sleeper and bust.

QB Sleeper - Brad Kaaya (I don't think he'll be a starter though)

QB Bust - Mitch Trubisky

RB Sleeper - Brian Hill

RB Bust - Wayne Gallman

WR Sleeper - Josh Malone

WR Bust - Isaiah Ford

TE Sleeper - Jake Butt (can we call him a sleeper due to injury pushing him down?)

TE Bust - Michael Roberts (fizzled from day 1 of SB to end of combine....- though I don't love picking him to bust...gotta pick someone though.)

OL Sleeper - Conor McDermott

OL Bust - David Sharpe

DL Sleeper - Nazair Jones/DeAngelo Brown

DL Bust - Jarron Jones

Edge Sleeper - Tarell Basham

Edge Bust - Tim Williams

LB Sleeper - Jordan Evans

LB Bust - Alex Anzalone

CB Sleeper - Jalen Myrick

CB Bust - Akhello Witherspoon (because he's not ready and will get drafted too high for size - if he gets picked in the 4th or later and gets time to develop...then diff story)

S Sleeper - John Johnson

S Bust - Jabrill Peppers

I know it's all speculation but I don't think their is any way in hell that Jabrill Peppers busts. If Belichick & Patricia end up with him he'll be the most versatile defensive player in the league, another Pomalamalu? Or a bigger nastier Bob Sanders. When your the most athletic standout on defense & your a hybrid stud, good coaches will find ways to use you.