Jump to content

WhatIfSports | Beyond The Box Score Simulation | AFCE Preview


Recommended Posts

2008 AFC East Preview

Patriots still strong; Bills in Playoffs (they actually project Buffalo going 9-7 and making the playoffs?!)

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

June 10th 2008


We will preview an NFL division each day for eight days, before presenting final standings, fantasy and statistical leaders, award winners, playoff results and power rankings. This analysis is part of a broader endeavor with FOXSports.com's Fantasy Football. For this analysis, each regular season game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our final predicted record. As can be noted, sometimes a team is "favored" (wins more than 50% of the time) in a different number of our games than the expected record shows. We list this record as the Absolute Record. The assumption of the Absolute Record is that the more likely scenario always happens. Since we know that it does not (see Super Bowl XLII), our expected record (in parentheses next to each team) is far more accurate. Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of June 8, 2008. A schedule of upcoming NFL preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Today we will preview the AFC East.

Click here for the rest of the AFCE simulation...

New York Jets (7-9) (it seems that according to their simulation we could just as easily go 11-5!)

The Jets made some great additions to the offensive line and backfield to improve the running game. And a good draft plus some addition by subtraction gives the defense players who better fit the 3-4 scheme. However, without a downfield passing game and with question marks at defensive tackle (Kris Jenkins?) and corner (Justin Miller?) , New York cannot compete with New England and Buffalo, nor breach .500 (Why is this the conclusion of the question marks I wonder?) . The Jets average 22.1 points per game (#20) and allow 24.2 points (#19) against a schedule featuring five games against 2007 playoff teams.

Absolute Record: 6-10

Most Significant Newcomer: Alan Faneca, G - He may have been around for a while, but he has made seven Pro Bowls and aided Pittsburgh's often top-rated rushing attack in his ten seasons. Faneca, Damien Woody, another new guard the team added, and Tony Richardson, a fullback who often plays like a guard, should greatly help to open up the inside rushing lanes for Thomas Jones.

Biggest Strength: Pass Rush - With Shaun Ellis, Calvin Pace, Vernon Gholston, David Harris, Kerry Rhodes and others, the Jets can attack the quarterback from any angle. (Not to take away from the pass rush, but I think they are totally dissing Kris Jenkins.)

Most Exploitable Weakness: Passing Game - As alluded to earlier, the Jets cannot complete passes downfield (I think this is a total exaggeration) . When Chad Pennington is in the game at quarterback, he has great accuracy, but is severely hindered by a weak and fragile arm. Kellen Clemens has the big arm, yet has not been able to harness it when going long. Laveranues Coles has also been limited to a possession receiver in the last few years (this is not entirely true either) . If new TE Dustin Keller can occupy the middle (this is irrelevant to who starts at QB) , Kellen Clemens steals the starting job from Pennington (or waits for an injury (nice dig on CP)), the running game keeps defenses guessing more and the Jets find a deep threat out of Jerricho Cotchery, Chansi Stuckey, Wallace Wright and/or Marcus Henry, this could be a vastly improved offense. That is a lot of ifs (let's see Keller plays, Clemens starts, have a running game, deep threat in J-Co... this doesn't sound unlikely at all!) .

Possible Fantasy Sleeper: Jesse Chatman, RB - Not only does Chatman's acquisition solidify the running back position as a position of strength for the Jets, it could free up Leon Washington to be used more creatively. The simulations have Chatman at 638 total yards and seven touchdowns and Washington at 474 yards and three touchdowns.

Closest Game: St. Louis Rams (Week 10) - With a team like the Jets that appears very good at some things and poor at others, every matchup can be interesting. The simulated season actually has New York on the wrong end of four games that are within a 15% margin between favorite and underdog (which means if these games swing in their favor the Jets go 11-5 according to this simulation ;)) . Against the Rams, expect a big day out of Torry Holt and Marc Bulger in a game featuring two very different teams.

Fantasy Notables: Chad Pennington (29) 1,468 yards, 11 TDs, 6 INTs; Kellen Clemens (34) 1,275 yards, 8 TDs, 6 INTs; Thomas Jones (25) 1,325 total yards, 10 TDs; Jerricho Cotchery (23) 64 receptions, 983 yards, 6 TDs; Dustin Keller (27) 29 receptions, 329 yards, 2 TDs; Bubba Franks (28) 25 receptions, 315 yards, 2 TDs; Mike Nugent (21) 38/38 XPs, 26/29 FGs

Projected 2008 Results:

Week_____Opponent__________Win%__________Avg Score

1_____@Miami Dolphins________81____________27-19

2_____New England Patriots____19____________22-30

3_____@San Diego Chargers___35____________18-30

4_____Arizona Cardinals_______63____________27-19

6_____Cincinnati Bengals______64____________32-24

7_____@Oakland Raiders______60____________25-23

8_____Kansas City Chiefs______60____________28-18

9_____@Buffalo Bills__________31____________15-26

10____St. Louis Rams_________49____________24-23

11____@New England Patriots___10____________15-32

12____@Tennessee Titans_____49____________14-22

13____Denver Broncos________46____________24-24 ?

14____@San Francisco 49ers____22____________20-37

15____Buffalo Bills____________35____________19-23

16____@Seattle Seahawks_____43____________14-22

17____Miami Dolphins_________73____________30-18

Overall I think it's an interesting simulation although I don't agree with some of the analysis and conclusions. In the projected results I'd like to think that we could split with Buffalo and win most of the close games though because of our improved line play.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd say their percent chances of winning look pretty reasonable. It's pretty lame to predict a new aquisitions TD's on a season where nobody has the faintest clue as to weather Baker or Keller will be used.

I thought it was funny what they said about the Rams game. A team with a great RB and one great receiver, saying that only the receiver will have a big day against us, yet he bashed our run defense in the breath prior. If our run D is so bad, wouldn't you think Jackson would have the big day? Why pick Holt to dice up one of our best players?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting article. We know he has the Bills rated highly, but I'm not really sure why the NFC West is rated so high. 22% chance to win against the Niners? Underdogs against the Rams at home? Those are the two games I don't see, but I haven't exactly studied those teams off-season acquistions and IIRC, the Niners had a lot of injuries last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting article. We know he has the Bills rated highly, but I'm not really sure why the NFC West is rated so high. 22% chance to win against the Niners? Underdogs against the Rams at home? Those are the two games I don't see, but I haven't exactly studied those teams off-season acquistions and IIRC, the Niners had a lot of injuries last year.

with the rams getting pace back they are a real wild card this year. Their line was terrible but Jackson was still able to run rampant when he was healthy. Their Dline should be solid with Carriker in his second year and Long could step in and play pretty well right away.

No way a wild card team comes out of that division but it will be interesting to see which teams step up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every team has 2-3 games that could go either way.

8-8 is sometimes 11-5

7-9 is sometimes 10-6

Two years ago, we won those games, last year we lost them.

Hopefully this year we can turn it around and win them again.


Link to comment
Share on other sites


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Create New...