JonEJet Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Thos 2nd half "sh1tty" adjustments you speak of are from mainly the Cardnials and Pats games Don't get sucked in on that premise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Here's something else I'm looking at.. Jets 1st halves: 175-95 Jets 2nd halves: 114-126 Titans 1st halves: 114-77 Titans 2nd halves: 130-54 Clearly Fisher is great at adjustments and Mangini stinks.. Also heard the other day that the Jets defense is #4 in the league in the first half, but #28 in the second half. TN's is flipped somewhat as the were around 10 (forget) in the first half, but #1 in the second half.. Halftime line is Jets +3 -110, +155 - could be a play here if this game follows the pattern, but I'm worried TN might jump on the Jets early at home.. Yea, those stats are why I feel Tennesee will the game (Damn Mangini). I do think the Jets will come out strong though after the pat win. Has tennesee really beat up on anyone all year in the first half? My perception was they kind of hang around with everyone till the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonEJet Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 This is what Im talking about CTM---They have been on fire, but since Im really going in blind you should really use it just as a deciding factor/supplement the teams you already liked. Also hopefully by Gametime there will be 5 plays or so which will be in our factor, as 2 games is more of a toss up. What are you trying to say here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Yea, those stats are why I feel Tennesee will the game (Damn Mangini). I do think the Jets will come out strong though after the pat win. Has tennesee really beat up on anyone all year in the first half? My perception was they kind of hang around with everyone till the end. They jumped out on a few teams like KC, and actually lead MN 20-7 at one point and the first half ended at 20-10, but yeah, generally they are a second half team.. I actually like the idea of betting the second half more then the first, that is, if the Jets do have a led at the half, beating TN in the second half is almost a sure thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 What are you trying to say here? I strictly play RLM moves in college. Totally blind. The idea was to take somthing that already hit at 60% on a long term basis, and attempt to find a tweak/supplement it to get it in the 65-70% range(read earlier in the thread if you want). I still have not really looked at tweaks since its been hitting at an absurb percentage this last month(Literally like 70-80%). CTM suggested tweaking it by looking at running games, but its been pretty hard to objectively do since I have not found anything like a Footballoutsiders for college. So in the meantime, any RLM should def be a supplement to what you were already thinking, although going in blind you still have a 60% shot to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 They jumped out on a few teams like KC, and actually lead MN 20-7 at one point and the first half ended at 20-10, but yeah, generally they are a second half team.. I actually like the idea of betting the second half more then the first, that is, if the Jets do have a led at the half, beating TN in the second half is almost a sure thing.. I definetly like that idea better....From everything Ive heard Tenn is pretty hyped for the game, as is the Jets. So you would seem much safer just playing the second half.....Any other leans? Btw I still may edit my picks...Only one locked in was NE. I just did them a bit early in case im busy tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 I definetly like that idea better....From everything Ive heard Tenn is pretty hyped for the game, as is the Jets. So you would seem much safer just playing the second half.....Any other leans? Btw I still may edit my picks...Only one locked in was NE. I just did them a bit early in case im busy tonight. I'm with you on most of those plays, I'm leaning on Arizona as a RLM.. I don't wait for a full point move when the number moves on or off the key numbers. GOing from 3.5 to 3 is a bigger move then going from 5 to 4, imo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afosomf Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 I'm with you on most of those plays, I'm leaning on Arizona as a RLM.. I don't wait for a full point move when the number moves on or off the key numbers. GOing from 3.5 to 3 is a bigger move then going from 5 to 4, imo.. It's hard to bet against Gints...i would stay away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewilly Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 Yea, those stats are why I feel Tennesee will the game (Damn Mangini). I do think the Jets will come out strong though after the pat win. Has tennesee really beat up on anyone all year in the first half? My perception was they kind of hang around with everyone till the end. I'm just not buying into those stats painting an accurate picture. we've had ample time to prepare for this game. we have to know that we need to get to the q'back & not give him time like we did cassell. we just have to know that. The jets D can be VERY good when they mix in various blitz pkg's. I really don't think we're gonna see a bend but don't break D take the field. I think we'll be very aggressive for 4 quarters. jets win this one outright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonEJet Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 I have 3 nice ones going today Ole Miss +3.5 Arizona -3 UAB +7 Winner Loss Winner 2-1 for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slowmoe57 Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 my best bets this week -- 2-1 last week Redskins -3.5 Browns -2.5 Giants -3.5 good luck to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 22, 2008 Share Posted November 22, 2008 ??????? You liked the under right? yep. And he didn't get in for the TD but Cincinnati was out of challenges. Two plays I like for tomorrow are Arizona +3.5 (-115 at Bodog) and St. Louis +9 (-118 at Pinnacle). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Washington State has made me so much $$$$$$ this year Worst team I have ever watched play football.....a high schoo team would have a shot to beat them Stay far away from that game Interesting stat--Just about half the teams I bet on with RLM this past month not only won ATS, but won straight up like Washington state today did. Too bad Indiana got killed....this RLM seems alot better when theres 4-6 plays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 I'm with you on most of those plays, I'm leaning on Arizona as a RLM.. I don't wait for a full point move when the number moves on or off the key numbers. GOing from 3.5 to 3 is a bigger move then going from 5 to 4, imo.. Good point...Is it off a key number, or onto a key number we are looking for? Like 3.5 to 3, or 3 to 2.5 bigger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonEJet Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 They were down 10-0 Nice comeback win for them Horrible football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason423 Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Thos 2nd half "sh1tty" adjustments you speak of are from mainly the Cardnials and Pats games Don't get sucked in on that premise No its three years of numbers. They were outscored 169-155 in 2006, 194-109 in 2007, and 136-114 in 2008. I think they have only "won" the second half in 12 of 42 games in those three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Good point...Is it off a key number, or onto a key number we are looking for? Like 3.5 to 3, or 3 to 2.5 bigger? Considering 3 is the most prevalent end differential, it's the difference between loss->push versus push->win. For the books it's the reverse. I'd imagine the books would find the move from 3 to 2.5 more preferable since on average they'd collect more money losing that way, and collect more juice. In other words, if superior $$'s bet the line down to 2.5 and the end score was 3 and a cover, they'd collect the losses + the juice. If the line moved from 3.5 to 3,books would avoid payouts and push.. I honestly don't know what it preferable mathmatically, and I'm a little too drunk to figure it out.. Good Question.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 No its three years of numbers. They were outscored 169-155 in 2006, 194-109 in 2007, and 136-114 in 2008. I think they have only "won" the second half in 12 of 42 games in those three years. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonEJet Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Big day today Major line shift with the Pats starting today at +1.5....now -1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afosomf Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Big day today Major line shift with the Pats starting today at +1.5....now -1.5 i like phins here seemore is hurt and may not play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonEJet Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Pats win EASY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 Arizona Cardinals +3.5 Seattle Seahawks +3.5 Jets/Titans UNDER 41 Detroit Lions +9 St. Louis Rams +8 ML on all of those is worth taking. Considering whether to take the Cheatriots. Tough call. I think I'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonEJet Posted November 23, 2008 Share Posted November 23, 2008 I have nothing until this afternoon Any bets early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 ugh. Anyway, I like Colts ATS and ML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxman Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 My betus.com account is now at $3,200. Opened it before week one with a $500 deposit. The bet today was the Patriots at pick 'em. Not a bad little run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 24, 2008 Author Share Posted November 24, 2008 College plays Indiana +10.5 Washington State +7 Theres atleast 5 more that are just .5 away from being plays, So Ill probably follow this up tomm night. I play anything thats more then 60-65 percent, with a RLM movement of 1 point.... ---------------------------------------- Patriots +2 (Big Play)-Whens the last time a team has beaten the patriots twice in one season? Got this one in early Houston +3--They are good against team number 1 receiver, Lewis sucks, Winslow is hurt, and Quinn is hurt. Kansas City +3--Boy did Buffalo disgust just about everyone in the world on monday. If your a hardcore gambler, your probably playing KC moneyline here. Titans -5.5--I think this is a game the Titans win by 7. Better offensive, and Defensive lines. Homefield, and one coach has been amazing in the 4th quater and knows how to adjust--The other one does the opposite. Lions +7.5--RLM play Ravens/Eagles under 40---Westbrook will be out, and I see both defenses punishing eachother. St Louis---+7.5---RLM play Raiders +9---RLM play Colts +3--Buy the .5 if needed....If LT was the same I would likely pick SD here... Giants -3--I want to pick the cardinals, as I love to watch them but how can anyone bet against the giants right now. An unusually large week probably bc of the RLM plays..... What are u guys going for? 5-5 I hate everything about Philadelphia right now. Should have been an easy under. I still made out big time this week because of a huge Patriot play, but I think in the future I need to just play my plays, and keep the RLM/Big dogs on the side to follow for the future. For now Ill just use them as supplemental bits of info, rather then a must bet. Anyone make out bigtime bc of the Pats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxman Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 My betus.com account is now at $3,200. Opened it before week one with a $500 deposit. The bet today was the Patriots at pick 'em. Not a bad little run so far. 5-5 Anyone make out bigtime bc of the Pats? If I didn't know better I would say you had me on ignore. Not sure what big time is but 500 hundred has me feeling pretty good. Pats were my lock of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 5-5 I hate everything about Philadelphia right now. Should have been an easy under. I still made out big time this week because of a huge Patriot play, but I think in the future I need to just play my plays, and keep the RLM/Big dogs on the side to follow for the future. For now Ill just use them as supplemental bits of info, rather then a must bet. Anyone make out bigtime bc of the Pats? RLM has had a bad run the last 2-3 weeks,it happened last year about this time too.. I only blindly bet them when it fits in with my other cap, but it's been a rough few weeks for anyone that fades the public.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 24, 2008 Author Share Posted November 24, 2008 If I didn't know better I would say you had me on ignore. Not sure what big time is but 500 hundred has me feeling pretty good. Pats were my lock of the week. Very Nice. I think this was the surest Ive ever been on a game in my life. First time I bet a game early in awhile--I knew it the second I saw it. How much fun is it to throw in some fun money in an account, and build it up all season? Whats your plans? Goals? Stopping when you hit a certain number? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxman Posted November 24, 2008 Share Posted November 24, 2008 Very Nice. I think this was the surest Ive ever been on a game in my life. First time I bet a game early in awhile--I knew it the second I saw it. How much fun is it to throw in some fun money in an account, and build it up all season? Whats your plans? Goals? Stopping when you hit a certain number? I agree, I just didn't see any way the Patriots would lose that game. Not sure what the plans are for the account but it is fun. I am treating it like bonus money and not spending it just yet. I think I want to try and stretch it out a bit. I figure if I make some bigger bets down the road I could lose but I will put the brakes on at 2 or 3 times my original deposit. So that isn't bad if I cash out tripling my money. But I think I will take a few bigger shots along the way. I have to read this thread again to understand some of the stuff you guys are doing. I am keeping it simple, one game a week. Some weeks no games. Only taking the ones I feel really good about. It is fun though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 25, 2008 Share Posted November 25, 2008 wow, I first like GB at +3 (-130) and ML +115 Now I think they're favored by a point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted November 25, 2008 Share Posted November 25, 2008 wow, I first like GB at +3 (-130) and ML +115 Now I think they're favored by a point Pats line did the same... I have the game capped as a coin flip..Gonna wait till just before game time to decide.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerry Rhodes Posted November 28, 2008 Author Share Posted November 28, 2008 I agree, I just didn't see any way the Patriots would lose that game. Not sure what the plans are for the account but it is fun. I am treating it like bonus money and not spending it just yet. I think I want to try and stretch it out a bit. I figure if I make some bigger bets down the road I could lose but I will put the brakes on at 2 or 3 times my original deposit. So that isn't bad if I cash out tripling my money. But I think I will take a few bigger shots along the way. I have to read this thread again to understand some of the stuff you guys are doing. I am keeping it simple, one game a week. Some weeks no games. Only taking the ones I feel really good about. It is fun though. Sounds good. Especially if your not chasing when you lose. Definetly consider some type of reward/taking out your initial money though. Alot of times regardless of how well you are doing things avg out on a long enough timeline.... ------------------------------------------------------------- So guys, I stayed away from any bets yesterday but we had 2 Double Digit dogs and both got hammered. Here's everything avg out for ya. Any leans for this weekend? Jets anywhere near -7--I think we kill Denver, and the worse the weather the better. If its nice outside, ill go for the over as well. Ravens -7--I have had some great success betting Balt this year. I would love to see if they can keep Cinci under 10 points Indi -5 --I think Cleveland sucks. Steelers + 1--Has New England beat anyone this season? Minny -3(if i can)--What are the bears without Forte? I dont think they can stop peterson. Who u guys leanin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewilly Posted November 28, 2008 Share Posted November 28, 2008 Sounds good. Especially if your not chasing when you lose. Definetly consider some type of reward/taking out your initial money though. Alot of times regardless of how well you are doing things avg out on a long enough timeline.... ------------------------------------------------------------- So guys, I stayed away from any bets yesterday but we had 2 Double Digit dogs and both got hammered. Here's everything avg out for ya. Any leans for this weekend? Jets anywhere near -7--I think we kill Denver, and the worse the weather the better. If its nice outside, ill go for the over as well. Ravens -7--I have had some great success betting Balt this year. I would love to see if they can keep Cinci under 10 points Indi -5 --I think Cleveland sucks. Steelers + 1--Has New England beat anyone this season? Minny -3(if i can)--What are the bears without Forte? I dont think they can stop peterson. Who u guys leanin? out of those you'd sure think Indy -5. aren't they do for an easy win by maybe 2 scores or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yisman Posted November 28, 2008 Share Posted November 28, 2008 http://forums.eog.com/1752344-post209.html Very proud of myself. Entered a betting contest with a ton of entries and finished second. btw, Bowling Green seems like a solid pick this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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