FO: Sanchez falls to 28th in QB Rankings

[Sperm Edwards]

That Buffalo loss was brutal.

The main problem with comparing Romo to Sanchez is the disparity in NFL experience IMO. Romo is freaking 31 yrs old and in his 8th season in the NFL. You say Romo has greatly improved on holding the ball too long than when he took over for Bledsoe, but he took over 6 seasons ago (2006 season).

I didn't say that. I said his release is much, much faster. If you watch him closely, it's actually pretty impressive how quick it is. Even more impressive is how slow it used to be when he first took over for Bledsoe. He really worked on it and changed a huge weakness into a huge plus. Further, he did that by his 3rd season. He didn't suddenly improve upon that after 6 years.

Unfortunately for him and Dallas, he didn't improve on his penchant for choking, lol.

[ZachEY]

Nobody? From what I've seen, everyone recognizes it. They just don't give Sanchez the free pass to be quite as bad because of it.

Better QB's recognize that pressure is coming and get rid of the ball, or get rid of it more accurately when they do. And the OL has nothing to do with an inability to recognize coverage.

He's still got a ways to go. He's still just a kid and plenty of QB's "get it" after more time than anyone cares to allow. But it's not like Sanchez isn't making his own significant contributions to some careless - if not outright lousy - play.

No one drafts a QB that high and eats up that much cap room with him because of the prospect of having a good game against a Jaguars team that can't put points on the board themselves. You can get that out of Jon Kitna.

Now he does have a knack for those late comebacks, and that's not nothing. It's the only reason - and a damn good one - why 90% of his jock-holders still have faith that he'll become much better than he is.

On NFL Network, Kurt Warner, talks similarly. He acknowledges the problems surrounding Sanchez, but still maintains that he's very disappointed in his lack of progress and that he's not turning into the player many had hoped based on some of his playoff performances.

Thing is, many of those comebacks come against prevent defenses. He's good in those situations, but I've yet to see him beat the blitz, or make a team pay for bringing pressure like many good QBs do. For that reason, you see teams, like Baltimore last week, overload the LOS and that certainly contributes to the offensive line's troubles protecting him.

[Sperm Edwards]

I think one of Sanchez' problems is that he wants to make "a play" every play. First snap against the Ravens, the D prefectly read the slant to Holmes and took that away. Sanchez tried to find someone else and gets popped (even though it was only 2.1 seconds from snap). Still, in that situation it's hit Holmes, throw it away, or move out of pocket and if no one open, throw it away.

Sometimes I forget about it. He doesn't really throw a lot of passes away. Now some of that is to his credit because he tries to make some plays with his feet instead. But every QB, even those who complete over 2/3 of their passes, purposely throw some out of bounds. Far enough away to be un-catchable (read: un-interceptable) but not so far away to be called for grounding.

There wasn't a whole lot Sanchez could do on that play, though that doesn't mean getting stripped was automatic. But when someone's coming full-speed at the passer, it doesn't always end up in a sack (let alone a fumble) because a slight move out of the way causes the rusher to overshoot. It's easier said than done, which is what would make it a terrific play, but Sanchez dropping back can change direction (and therefore buy more time) more easily than Reed can while Reed's running full-speed.

Look at what happened with Maybin's first almost-sack. If Reed is at all faster than Maybin it isn't by much. Flacco moved out of the way and eluded an initial full-hit. Because he was going full-speed Maybin overshot him and it an extra second or so to recover and re-begin full pursuit. Flacco ended up completing the pass. Now if Flacco had just stood there like a statue I'm sure there would have been plenty of Flacco apologists in Baltimore, like Sanchez apologists repeatedly have done here, saying that no one in NFL history could have done anything on that play.

[SMC]

On NFL Network, Kurt Warner, talks similarly. He acknowledges the problems surrounding Sanchez, but still maintains that he's very disappointed in his lack of progress and that he's not turning into the player many had hoped based on some of his playoff performances.

Thing is, many of those comebacks come against prevent defenses. He's good in those situations, but I've yet to see him beat the blitz, or make a team pay for bringing pressure like many good QBs do. For that reason, you see teams, like Baltimore last week, overload the LOS and that certainly contributes to the offensive line's troubles protecting him.

Warner's right.

But your prevent defense claim is just wrong. Take the Texans game last year. Texans weren't in prevent last year. Watch the video. The protection breaks down on almost every play in the winning drive and Sanchez avoids the rush and connects first with LT, Keller, and Braylon before the game winner to Holmes. The difference is that Sanchez saw the pressure and had time to move.

Against the Browns and Lions, those 2 teams weren't in prevent. They couldn't be because a score would equal a loss for them. Those are 3 of the Jets 5 comebacks last year.

[SMC]

Sometimes I forget about it. He doesn't really throw a lot of passes away. Now some of that is to his credit because he tries to make some plays with his feet instead. But every QB, even those who complete over 2/3 of their passes, purposely throw some out of bounds. Far enough away to be un-catchable (read: un-interceptable) but not so far away to be called for grounding.

There wasn't a whole lot Sanchez could do on that play, though that doesn't mean getting stripped was automatic. But when someone's coming full-speed at the passer, it doesn't always end up in a sack (let alone a fumble) because a slight move out of the way causes the rusher to overshoot. It's easier said than done, which is what would make it a terrific play, but Sanchez dropping back can change direction (and therefore buy more time) more easily than Reed can while Reed's running full-speed.

Look at what happened with Maybin's first almost-sack. If Reed is at all faster than Maybin it isn't by much. Flacco moved out of the way and eluded an initial full-hit. Because he was going full-speed Maybin overshot him and it an extra second or so to recover and re-begin full pursuit. Flacco ended up completing the pass. Now if Flacco had just stood there like a statue I'm sure there would have been plenty of Flacco apologists in Baltimore, like Sanchez apologists repeatedly have done here, saying that no one in NFL history could have done anything on that play.

Excellent points. But I have to correct you (it's the internet so you know it's a compulsion ), Flacco threw an incomplete pass on Maybin's rush. Flacco did a good job of escaping, but his out-of-pocket completions came on Westerman rushes.

[Sperm Edwards]

Warner's right.

But your prevent defense claim is just wrong. Take the Texans game last year. Texans weren't in prevent last year. Watch the video. The protection breaks down on almost every play in the winning drive and Sanchez avoids the rush and connects first with LT, Keller, and Braylon before the game winner to Holmes. The difference is that Sanchez saw the pressure and had time to move.

Against the Browns and Lions, those 2 teams weren't in prevent. They couldn't be because a score would equal a loss for them. Those are 3 of the Jets 5 comebacks last year.

Yeah, I agree. Lots of those come-from-behind wins were sealed on, or came on the heels of, absolutely perfect clutch passes in traffic. Edwards down the sideline, Holmes in the endzone, and others. It's not like every game-sealer was made because he threw to Keller over the middle over & over again with no one within 15 yards of him.

To say that he hasn't improved noticeably doesn't mean he was starting from absolutely rock-bottom. He made some money throws in money time of games and it's a bit of an insult to the kid to suggest anyone who knows how to throw a football would have made those same throws. It's really the main reason I haven't totally lost faith in him and still hold out some hope.

[RutgersJetFan]

Sometimes I forget about it. He doesn't really throw a lot of passes away.

Pretty much impossible to throw the ball away when you're pump faking on a jailbreak.

[Sperm Edwards]

Excellent points. But I have to correct you (it's the internet so you know it's a compulsion ), Flacco threw an incomplete pass on Maybin's rush. Flacco did a good job of escaping, but his out-of-pocket completions came on Westerman rushes.

I thought it was 3rd & long and he completed it. Whatever, if you're right then you're right.

[JiFtheOracle]

Excellent points. But I have to correct you (it's the internet so you know it's a compulsion ), Flacco threw an incomplete pass on Maybin's rush. Flacco did a good job of escaping, but his out-of-pocket completions came on Westerman rushes.

Check you PM's...you're in the game.

[CTM]

I don't disagree at all. I'm merely commenting on the disparity between FO's rankings, not the extent to which Sanchez is not hitting his receivers even on easy passes.

And he's always held the ball to long. He's never improved upon that one iota. It's not like Sanchez has got a lightning-fast release to begin with, which is one thing Romo actually does have now, having improved greatly from when he first took over for Bledsoe.

The other thing to consider is that while Romo has clearly choked away 2 wins, those were 2 games where they were in the catbird seat because of the effectiveness of the passing game that gave Dallas such a lead in the first place. It's not like he choked away a game where his team had over 300 rushing yards. In decades of watching NFL games I can only recall one time that's ever happened (Jets v Buffalo, 2009).

fo's ranking heavily favor extending drives with succesful plays.. don't have the exact figure but for a play to be successful for a QB, it needs something like 65% of yardage need for 1st down on 1st, then like 80% on second and obv 100% on third... this of course favors the dink and dunkers like penningfag who rack up a bank of succesful plays.. but does penalize the old 6 yard pass on third and 10..

[CTM]

big ben had worse protection in houston and was almost as miserable...

sanchez truggled against a good defense, not really that exceptional... i expect he'll look a lot better this weekend..

[jason423]

Romo's faced tougher secondary units (as a whole) I guess. Sanchez has yet to face even a decent one. Not that stats are everything, as any Dallas fan can attest to, but in terms of positive yardage for the offense, Romo has done the most damage to all the defenses he's faced. He has the most passing yards against all their opponents so far. He's also averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt which is technically 7th but is only 0.1 behind the 4-way tie for #4. Sanchez is at 6.8, which puts him at #23. That's probably a big reason as well. 40% of his passes result in first downs, compared to 30% of Sanchez's. And I think they take into account how the yards are achieved. Romo doesn't have any 5-yard dumpoffs to his HB that resulted in a 75-yard plays. One can certainly credit Sanchez with finding the right receiver but crediting him with a 75-yard pass the same as one that gets 30-40 yards of air underneath it to a WR is a weak way of equating stats. One is a big play by both the QB and WR. The other is a big play by the RB that the QB gets enormous credit for.

It's all stats, so you have to take any of them with a grain of salt, if not the whole shaker full. Romo has blown 2 games with his turnovers and is on the verge of losing the locker room (if it hasn't already happened behind the scenes) so I wouldn't put him way ahead of anyone this season. He's also got a pretty well-documented career of being this type of choke artist no one except his agent cares where he's ranked, until such time as he's sporting a SB ring.

Also, and not necessarily related to Romo vs Sanchez in these rankings: as best I understand, they weigh whether a play is successful or unsuccessful (taking in down, distance, opponent, and other factors). If successful, there is further analysis as to HOW successful and how much is attributable to the QB and how much to the ball-carrier. But if unsuccessful, it's just an incomplete pass or a turnover. There may or may not be weight placed into a ball that bounces off his receivers hands, up into the air, into the waiting arms of a DB. But no account is taken into how bad the unsuccessful play is beyond stating that it is unsuccessful. An interception is never good. An interception that takes a minimum of a FG off the board is bad, as is an interception that gives the opponent an automatic FG at a minimum. Those are worse. Worse still is an interception (or fumble) that the other team takes the other way for an easy 6.

But I haven't read up on their methodology so if I'm wrong I take no shame in it.

I believe their system is one where they more or less track percentage of success on a given play, which I think is designed to make it something like a minimum of 2nd and 6, 3rd and 3 and picking up a first down or something along those lines. Their DYAR stat is more or less a value above what they consider a replacement player, which I think they define as the bottom 10% of the league.

Overall Sanchez really hasnt been horrible. I keep some stats tracking the performance of the offense compared to the schedule they played. I have the pass offense and defense on my site at

http://nyjetscap.com/2011_Efficiency/pe4.php

http://nyjetscap.com/2011_Efficiency/pd5.php

Hes basically a middle of the road QB. The Jets offense is below average in completion percentage, interceptions, and sacks allowed. They are slightly above average in TDPA, YPA, and YPC. They are well above average in the category of 20 yard passing plays, which is why the YPC is so high and how the YPA is above average. For as frustrating as it is to watch because it comes across as so disjointed the overall results are basically average for the schedule they played.

Despite the gaudy numbers Stafford has not been significantly better. Hes just played some easier defenses. Where he is killing it is TDs (probably the fact that Calvin Johnson catches everything in the end zone) and interceptions plus he never gets sacked (teams sack him 63% or so less than they have sacked others they faced). Freeman has been much worse except, like Stafford, he rarely gets hit and he doesnt turn the ball over. This is really the big test week for the Jets. The first awful pass defense they will play and one that never gets to the QB. The only thing that would worry me is they find a way to pick off passes, which I think usually come from tips at the line. That doesnt bode well for Mark.