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Colts still have inside track for number 1 pick in the NFL draft


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The suddenly surging Indianapolis Colts are guaranteed to have the No. 1 overall draft pick should they lose their final game of the season.

Mike and Mike in the Morning

(The Colts started 0-13 but their second straight win was a stunner, 19-16 over the AFC South champion Houston Texans on Thursday.

Still, if Indianapolis loses at Jacksonville on Jan. 1, they would finish with at least a share of the league's worst record at 2-14 and have the top pick in the draft by virtue of strength-of-schedule tiebreaker.

Both St. Louis and Minnesota are 2-12 heading into Saturday's games, but the Colts' .547 strength-of-schedule percentage is only going to worsen after playing the 4-10 Jaguars. The Rams' percentage is .587 and the Vikings' .587.

If the Colts beat Jacksonville and the Rams and Vikings lose their last two, the Colts would not get the top pick. If the Colts beat the Jags and St. Louis and Minnesota also finish 3-13, the No. 1 pick would go to the Colts'.

Minnesota has games left at Washington (5-9) and at home against Chicago (7-7), and St. Louis finishes at Pittsburgh and at home against San Francisco.

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Assuming all teams lose out the likely order is Colts, Vikings, Rams. The way ESPN calculates this stuff is lazy. You can project almost everything out. Assuming both lose out the Rams schedule will finish with at least 146 wins and can only reach 153. The Vikings are at 142 and can only reach 147. so it will be extremely difficult for the Rams to end up as the 2 if the Vikings keep losing.

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So you play the good teams and get beat and then you get shafted in the draft order as well ?

Well the draft ranking is essentially supposed to be from worst to best in the league. The point is that if two teams lose the same amount of games, but one team is getting beaten by good teams and another by crappy teams, it's the one losing to the other crappy teams that likely sucks more, and therefore is deserving of a higher pick. There's got to be some way to break the order of ties.

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If I'm Indianapolis, I trade the pick, draft OL and WRs and go for it with Manning for three more years. Luck might be great for ten years, but how many times do you get to have a top-three QB in the game AND a ton of draft picks to surround him with players to make one last, big run?

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