Middle round prospects

[BroadwayJ667]

I thought Mangini got carried away with the whole "character" thing, but there's a lot to be said for drafting players who are coachable, not jackasses, and who can read.

Without looking at the matchups of who drafted who, obviously the "Star" quality does to Mangini Regime of drafting, (Revis, Harris, Mangold, Ferguson) but if you look at the misses, I would say they are on par.

When you see the guys that have been drafted under Rex you see the guys who improve year to year.

I like to be patient with draft picks more so than most people because I understand the value of coaching. Sometimes it really does take a guy three years to "get it." A lot of time it isn't a knock on ability or capability of grasping the techniques and scheme, sometimes it's just that a guy is thinking too much. He isn't confident that he knows the scheme.

What's one thing you learn in pop warner and high school? If you are thinking on the football field, you aren't reacting and you will be slower.

I'll use Ducasse as an example. I've watched him, and a lot of his mistakes can be cleaned up if he understands what he is supposed to do as a natural reaction. Now I'm not sure he will ever be a star lineman but I see the talent and I see slow behavior. I'm convinced it's because he's thinking.

I don't know whether he can get out of that behavior, I don't know the guy, none of us do. However I do think that Sparano can make things easier for him so that he can just play. This offseason "should" help him, if it doesn't, then surprise, he's a bust.

[Greenseed4]

Antonio Allen, S, South Carolina

He's a tallish safety who has great instincts, and the length to compete with the taller TEs of the league.

Very smooth player, always around the action.

Derek Wolfe, DE, Cincinatti

He's a poor man's JJ Watt. Incredible motor, and room to add bulk to his frame. DPOY for his conference.

[BroadwayJ667]

Antonio Allen, S, South Carolina

He's a tallish safety who has great instincts, and the length to compete with the taller TEs of the league.

Very smooth player, always around the action.

Derek Wolfe, DE, Cincinatti

He's a poor man's JJ Watt. Incredible motor, and room to add bulk to his frame. DPOY for his conference.

Antonio Allen

Ok it's one game but I'm seeing the issue consistently. He looks like more a of a strong safety. He has talent, you can see it in the explosion and closing speed but his technique is poor. Nebraska likes to run the ball so he was tasked with playing in the box this game. as the game got away from Nebraska you can see him playing the slot more but I'll explain more towards the in the box type. When he plays to the line he displays good balance, he likes to attack the ball. This gets him into trouble though at times. He takes on blockers with the wrong shoulder or even gets lazy and takes him on straight up. He can get away with that in college , but in the pros he'll get pushed out of the play. His tackling is ok, he uses his hands and attempts to wrap but I don't see the desire to finish him off. Sometimes this seems like he takes a bad angle or plays too fast into the tackle and doesn't square up the ball carrier.

As far as coverage, he seems ok in zone. I'll get back to you with more. I'm gonna look at the Auburn game next. So far he looks like a 4th rounder

Derek wolfe

From what I read he will be limited to a five technique for 3-4 teams, so that's good for a team like the Jets.

This being said he looks like a rotation guy. He doesn't have any great explosion at the point of attack. He shows good leverage, and is able to hold his area, but he often takes on the wrong shoulder when attacking a blocker. In the video and example would be at 1:04. It's an inside run and he took the outside shoulder of the full back. What he needed to do was dip and take the inside shoulder of the fullback and make him bounce out where the linebackers can pursue. Or even if he dips on the full back he can make a play on the ball carrier. The full back won that play. I can explain more, but watch the video and watch the way he plays a blocker vs the run.

Overall I see good play that needs to be solidified by coaching.

[Greenseed4]

Nice write up. I think you labelled it for what it is--two players with overall good play, that can be found in the middle rounds and could benefit from professional coaching. Neither will be drafted in the first-2 rounds, and considering how weak this safety class is, that's pretty telling for Antonio. But, both are leaders of their respective defenses, and that speaks volumes to me (esp. in the middle rounds)

Antonio Allen: You were right, it was only one game (a Bowl game, at that) against a running team....So yes, Antonio Allen was asked to play more in-the-box stuff, and isn't a world-beater when it comes to working through blockers. I envision him being drafted as a strong safety, so his length can assist in covering TEs, and hopefully he isn't required to take on too many lead blockers in our defense. While he won't make all the tackles Eric Smith is making for us, he has better cover ability and ball skills.

A Kerry Rhodes who wants to tackle...but maybe doesn't as much as he should. He still lead his squad in tackles though.

As for Wolfe,

Yes he would be a rotational guy, who prolly wouldn't start for a year or two, but I see a Marcus Dixon pass rusher with Devito strength

[denden29]

No I understood what you were saying. I think they need to find the perfect middle in this years draft. Try to find one player that makes an immediate impact, maybe they have to trade up for him, but the rest of the picks need to be guys that can develop.

I think the difference between the Rex Regime and the Mangini Regime in terms of drafting has been potential vs immediate impact. It seems to me that Mangini could recognize guys that could start right away where as under Rex they look for guys that might have a higher upside. I know what the results are but I'm speculating.

As far as the Stephen Hill vs Jeffery thing, it got a whole lot more interesting today as Stephen Hill ran a 4.3 -4.36 40 yd dash. I think it's a lock now that he goes in the first round. Hell he may now even go before pick 16, So yeah there are other needs but I think If they really believe in Mark, or even want to bring in another QB they need a guy like Hill that can stretch the field and open up the running game for them.

Well Hill was impressive today no doubt. There is lots of discussion about him. I think he is difficult to evaluate the physical tools are there but David Clowney ran a 4.3. Is he's a great talent and ends up being a real star or he's a combine wonder? This question, in my opinion and we all know that's worth about two cents, will hold him off till round two but his upside is tremendous.

[BroadwayJ667]

Well Hill was impressive today no doubt. There is lots of discussion about him. I think he is difficult to evaluate the physical tools are there but David Clowney ran a 4.3. Is he's a great talent and ends up being a real star or he's a combine wonder? This question, in my opinion and we all know that's worth about two cents, will hold him off till round two but his upside is tremendous.

See there in lies the trick with trying to evaluate him. He has all the athleticism but lacks the tape. In this case it's not his fault, it's just a fact from the offense he was a part of. A triple option won't ask receivers to run the route tree, only outs posts, deep in's and go's.

I'll explain what I can gather from each of the video's

In this video it's an inside post. The corner gives him a 9-10 yard cushion (something I'm seeing consistently from the corners that cover him). After the snap (at the 2-3 second mark, you can see him give a subtle shimmy to make the corner pause. The ball is thrown and he takes inside position on the ball in the air. He tracks the ball well through the air and makes the catch.

This one there really isn't much to evaluate, other than how quickly he ate up the corners 10yd cushion and found the ball, caught it and had good body control to make the catch in bounds.

[BroadwayJ667]

Everyone will see this one for the superb catch he made but there is something else impressive about it. His ability to "sit down" in zone. So from the break he runs a what appears to be a wheel route. North Carolina is playing zone on this play, as you can tell by the way the defenders fade back into coverage, and the corner who makes the tackle breaks back to the ball from the deep receiver.

Hill runs the wheel, see's that the defenders are in zone and stops at the 20, running a twelve yard route. So in this he finds the open area between the three defenders (corner, slot corner and linebacker). It should have been an easy completion but the QB threw a high pass and he made a spectacular play.

Ok another example. Just to prove consistency, he runs a deep route and is able to work inside leverage on the corner and fight for the ball at its highest point.

I'm just going to make the assumption now that after the scouts really look at the film he will not get out of the first round. I'm more convinced he may not make it out of the top 20. If the Jets don't take him at 16, Chicago will at 19.

[denden29]

Everyone will see this one for the superb catch he made but there is something else impressive about it. His ability to "sit down" in zone. So from the break he runs a what appears to be a wheel route. North Carolina is playing zone on this play, as you can tell by the way the defenders fade back into coverage, and the corner who makes the tackle breaks back to the ball from the deep receiver.

Hill runs the wheel, see's that the defenders are in zone and stops at the 20, running a twelve yard route. So in this he finds the open area between the three defenders (corner, slot corner and linebacker). It should have been an easy completion but the QB threw a high pass and he made a spectacular play.

Ok another example. Just to prove consistency, he runs a deep route and is able to work inside leverage on the corner and fight for the ball at its highest point.

I'm just going to make the assumption now that after the scouts really look at the film he will not get out of the first round. I'm more convinced he may not make it out of the top 20. If the Jets don't take him at 16, Chicago will at 19.

You very well might be right. Guess we'll have to wait a little and see what the opinions are after the dust settles.

[Darrellegivesmeaboner#24]

Here is what I don't understand about guys like Stephen Hill and Demaryius Thomas, if you are a big time athlete at the WR position why would you accept a scholarship to a school that you know is not going to effectively develop your talents? I have a hard time believing that Hill didn't have other options, and even if they were smaller schools we have seen such receivers excel at the next level anyway...Is he one of these guys who grew and developed physically in college, and that is why other schools missed on him? I had never even heard of this dude before today; which concerns me...

[BroadwayJ667]

Here is what I don't understand about guys like Stephen Hill and Demaryius Thomas, if you are a big time athlete at the WR position why would you accept a scholarship to a school that you know is not going to effectively develop your talents? I have a hard time believing that Hill didn't have other options, and even if they were smaller schools we have seen such receivers excel at the next level anyway...Is he one of these guys who grew and developed physically in college, and that is why other schools missed on him? I had never even heard of this dude before today; which concerns me...

Because Georgia Tech is a very good school and you can get a quality education from there. I know that's crazy because of the dumb college athlete stereotype but look at the two before Hill, Thomas and Johnson. Those two come across as intelligent and educated men.

See everyone assumes that to make it at the next level you have to go to the SEC to be found, but the NFL is such a competitive business that the scouts will find you no matter where you play. Look at all the small school guys across the league (DeMarcus Ware)

[denden29]

Here is what I don't understand about guys like Stephen Hill and Demaryius Thomas, if you are a big time athlete at the WR position why would you accept a scholarship to a school that you know is not going to effectively develop your talents? I have a hard time believing that Hill didn't have other options, and even if they were smaller schools we have seen such receivers excel at the next level anyway...Is he one of these guys who grew and developed physically in college, and that is why other schools missed on him? I had never even heard of this dude before today; which concerns me...

Agree with your point but Calvin Johnson went to G-Tech and his pretty good. I remember watching the first game of his last season at Tech. I like wow this guy is amazing before that never heard of him.

I see these heavily recruited high school player say no to LSU but go to Notre Dame and I don't understand why? I mean LSU is in the SEC and competes for a national championship every year, no offense to the ND faithful, but what have they done over the last10 years expect be 7-4 and go to the toilet bowl on December 4^th to a stadium half full.

Look at a guy like Victor Cruz why did he go to UMass and was undrafted? Sometimes guys just develop later or they see opportunities to play more at certain schools than others.

[Darrellegivesmeaboner#24]

Agree with your point but Calvin Johnson went to G-Tech and his pretty good. I remember watching the first game of his last season at Tech. I like wow this guy is amazing before that never heard of him.

I see these heavily recruited high school player say no to LSU but go to Notre Dame and I don't understand why? I mean LSU is in the SEC and competes for a national championship every year, no offense to the ND faithful, but what have they done over the last10 years expect be 7-4 and go to the toilet bowl on December 4^th to a stadium half full.

Look at a guy like Victor Cruz why did he go to UMass and was undrafted? Sometimes guys just develop later or they see opportunities to play more at certain schools than others.

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Calvin Johnson commit to Ga Tech before they hired Johnson to run the triple option? In that case, I understand how he could have ended up at that school. Hill, however, is a different story...

[BroadwayJ667]

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Calvin Johnson commit to Ga Tech before they hired Johnson to run the triple option? In that case, I understand how he could have ended up at that school. Hill, however, is a different story...

just watch the film. It doesn't lie

[denden29]

Correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Calvin Johnson commit to Ga Tech before they hired Johnson to run the triple option? In that case, I understand how he could have ended up at that school. Hill, however, is a different story...

Like I said I agree is Hill a combine wonder? I wrote earlier that even David Clowney ran a 4.3 was he a great receiver? Tim Tebow ran the read option but someone felt like he was worth taking at #25 to play QB in the NFL. Football is screwed up, you see top picks fail and undrafted guys make it.

Hill is actually from Lithonia Ga. so Tech was close to home.

Look at Larry Fitzgerald he went to Pitt with that powerhouse QB Rod Rutherford, he had some pro career, why didn’t Fitzgerald go to Miami?

Look at a guy like Dontari Poe NT - Memphis, he's going in the first or second round. Memphis was 2-10 got there a$$ kicked all over the field. They lost to Mississippi State 14-59. If this guy was good why didn't he go to Alabama? The fact is he's 6'5" 350 pounds so right there he’s in the conversation, measurements count.

So because Hill decided to go to a school where the offense is more run based he can't be a good NFL player? I mean lots of schools that run pro style offenses have QB's that suck. Don't you have to take that into account if you’re analyzing a guys potential. The fact is Hill had a big year and played in the ACC, not the Mountain West, he has potential and was projected as a mid round 2-4 pick before the combine, do you think he increased his stock or decreased it at the combine?

There is no bigger crap shoot then the draft but you never draft a player, you draft his potential, and Hill does have that. I personally feel he's not polished enough as a receiver to take him in the first but he’d have to be considered after that. He might be right now say #5 in the WR depth charts and he is 6’4” unlike a Kendall Wright type.

[stoicsentry]

Or, Mangini had a more realistic grasp of what to look for in a developmental prospect.

Has there even been enough time to evaluate Rex's drafts?

1. There have only been 3 of them.

2. Many people say it takes about 3 years to evaluate a draft class.

3. Since Rex arrived, they have been winning (until this year), thus they haven't had a draft selection above 28 (with the exception of the Sanchez tradeup), whereas Mangini had several.

09 - Sanchez, Greene, Slauson.

Sanchez let's leave aside because that's a huge discussion. Greene is everything you could really expect from a 3rd round back. Nothing special, but nice value in the 3rd. Slauson was excellent value in the 5th.

10 - Wilson, Ducasse, McKnight, Conner

Probably the worst class right here. Wilson nevertheless could start on many teams. Ducasse and McKnight have done nothing yet. Conner is a solid starting fullback, so decent value given where he was drafted.

11 - Wilkerson, Ellis, Powell, Kerley, McElroy, McKnight

WIlkerson could be a permanent replacement for Shaun Ellis, mirroring his production. Good job there. Ellis and Powell - still projects. Kerley showed flashes, could be a permanent replacement for Cotchery in the slot with more speed. Great value pick. McElroy, who knows.. could be our backup QB for awhile. McKnight was primarily chosen because Rex is trying to collect McKnights of all sizes, shapes and colors.

Overall, I'd say they've done a mediocre job. Haven't had that many picks to work with. This could be a very important year as they'll finally get a bunch of picks plus they'll find out whether some of these guys will ever pan out.