Jets 2016 Salary Cap

[Sperm Edwards]

Week 2:  After the Colts cut the Jets lead to 10-7 with 10:16 remaining in the game, Fitz leads a TD drive where he goes 4-6 for 56 yards, finishing with a 15-yard TD to Marshall.  On his next possession he leads a FG drive to seal the game.

Week 13:  Trailing 20-10 to the Giants with 8:42 remaining in the game and starting from his own 14, Fitz leads a FG drive with only pass plays, going 7-11 for 80 yards to cut the lead to 20-13.  He then ties up the game with a TD drive where he goes 6-8 for 61 yards, along with a 15-yard run of his own, to tie up the game with 32 seconds remaining.  In OT he leads what turns out to be the game-winning drive, going 5-8 for 53 yards. 

Week 15:  With the game tied 16-16 @ Dallas and 2:00 left in the game, Fitz leads the game-winning FG drive, going 3-3 for 52 yards, including a 43-yarder to Kenbrell Thompkins.

Week 16:  After the Patriots send the game into overtime, the Jets drive down the field in 5 plays, with Fitz going 3-3 for 74 yards and the game-winning TD to Decker.

 

In these game-tying/game-winning/game on the line situations above, Fitz was 28-39 (71.7%) for 376 yards (9.6 ypa), 3 TD's, and 0 INT's.

 

In short, without these 4 late wins, we're not in position to have a "win and in" situation against Buffalo in the first place.  Those were playoff-caliber performances.  I don't understand where your negativity comes from, especially given how badly our QB's have played in ALL situations the last 6 years, but it's not steeped in reality. 

I get that you don't want to overpay the guy, and I don't either, but this is about the best QB play you could ask for out of a guy who has bounced around the league, was had for a 7th rounder, and likely won't break the bank on a 2-3 year deal.  Meanwhile, we once invested a top 5 pick and a massive contract extension to Mark f-ing Sanchez.  And $64M to Chad Pennington.  Etc etc.

The Colts cut the lead because Fitz nearly pissed the game away earlier. Why had we scored only 10 points against the Giants, with 8:42 remaining in the game, in the first place? Why did we only have 16 points against Dallas with 2:00 left in the game in the first place? If you want to label losses as "team losses" you don't get to say Fitz was the hero and reason for team wins. The above games should have been blowouts if he was a good QB. The Colts had a full backup secondary on the field, the Giants had the 32nd ranked pass D in the NFL. Enunwa pulling down a sh*tty, wobbly pass - along with Dallas having no QB - is the reason we eked by the Cowboys.

Whether you want to accept it or not, he's just a meh QB once the ball is snapped. He panics, he stares down his targets, has little to no vision for the rest of the field, causing him to rush throws and not take the open underneath stuff when his go-route receiver is blanketed on 3rd & 6 type downs; he still chucks it up there and long completions are just the law of averages coming around (as they do for any bad QB). He has a low point of release (which, in combination with the staring down, causes so many batted passes). He's obviously smart on paper, but the game is still too fast which is undoubtedly why he needs to stare down his primary target; and the speed of the game is why it doesn't occur to him to slide until a defender is already touching him. It isn't because he doesn't have the IQ to know enough to slide; of course he does. He doesn't slide because he and the game is moving faster than his brain can process it. If he was a young QB, you say this will improve with experience. But after over a decade in the league, it is clear this will never change or it would have by now already.

Now on the other hand he is a great guy, has a pair of balls that are like 2 helmets, the team likes and looks up to him, he surely has command of the huddle, and is a leader who replaced the spoiled babies we've had for years. He was a steal for a 7th round pick and $3M on a 1 year deal.

To your last point, past failures of other FOs at choosing Jets QBs doesn't mean anointing Fitz as something other than what he is: a meh QB who is merely holding the seat warm for his better, with the knowledge we're not winning or even getting to a Super Bowl until that happens. Therefore the team can't be so tied to him they don't jump at a chance at better because they're more concerned with other pieces. 

I've said already I'm fine with bringing him back at up to $7-8M if his guarantees don't extend beyond the 2016 season. That is a far cry from saying "Run away from him now and put anyone but Fitz out there." But guaranteeing him 2 years at 8-figure starter money if he threatens to walk? No.

[Jetsfan80]

To summarize, Sperm.

Where we disagree:  I say he's an above average QB.  You say he's "Meh" (not sure where this falls on the spectrum). 

Where we agree:  Little to no financial commitment to him beyond 2016 (in other words, it becomes possible to hang on to him in 2017 OR let him go based on the organization's needs at the time), as expressed through the kind of contract he gets.

[KRL]

My suggestion for Fitzpatrick's contract was 2 years with a total value of 12-14
million with half of it guaranteed.  I think a change from 50% guaranteed to 100%
guaranteed would get it done.  I would have no problem definitely having Fitzpatrick
on the roster for the next two years.  2016 he would be the starter and hopefully
in 2017 he would be the backup to Petty or somebody

[whodeawhodat]

The Colts cut the lead because Fitz nearly pissed the game away earlier. Why had we scored only 10 points against the Giants, with 8:42 remaining in the game, in the first place? Why did we only have 16 points against Dallas with 2:00 left in the game in the first place? If you want to label losses as "team losses" you don't get to say Fitz was the hero and reason for team wins. The above games should have been blowouts if he was a good QB. The Colts had a full backup secondary on the field, the Giants had the 32nd ranked pass D in the NFL,

Whether you want to accept it or not, he's just a meh QB once the ball is snapped. He panics, he stares down his targets, has little to no vision for the rest of the field, causing him to rush throws and not take the open underneath stuff when his go-route receiver is blanketed on 3rd & 6 type downs; he still chucks it up there and long completions are just the law of averages coming around (as they do for any bad QB). He has a low point of release (which, in combination with the staring down, causes so many batted passes). He's obviously smart on paper, but the game is still too fast which is undoubtedly why he needs to stare down his primary target; and the speed of the game is why it doesn't occur to him to slide until a defender is already touching him. It isn't because he doesn't have the IQ to know enough to slide; of course he does. He doesn't slide because he and the game is moving faster than his brain can process it. If he was a young QB, you say this will improve with experience. But after over a decade in the league, it is clear this will never change or it would have by now already.

Now on the other hand he is a great guy, has a pair of balls that are like 2 helmets, the team likes and looks up to him, he surely has command of the huddle, and is a leader who replaced the spoiled babies we've had for years. He was a steal for a 7th round pick and $3M on a 1 year deal.

To your last point, past failures of other FOs at choosing Jets QBs doesn't mean anointing Fitz as something other than what he is: a meh QB who is merely holding the seat warm for his better, with the knowledge we're not winning or even getting to a Super Bowl until that happens. Therefore the team can't be so tied to him they don't jump at a chance at better because they're more concerned with other pieces.

I've said already I'm fine with bringing him back at up to $7-8M if his guarantees don't extend beyond the 2016 season. That is a far cry from saying "Run away from him now and put anyone but Fitz out there." But guaranteeing him 2 years at 8-figure starter money if he threatens to walk? No.

IDK, Sperm... To say he panics, I dont see it.  Does he focus in on a match up he likes, absolutely.  To say the game is too fast for him, unlikely.

[Sperm Edwards]

To summarize, Sperm.

Where we disagree:  I say he's an above average QB.  You say he's "Meh" (not sure where this falls on the spectrum).

Where we agree:  Little to no commitment to him beyond 2016, as expressed through the kind of contract he gets.

Fair.

Meh means he's fine to hold the seat warm. Meh means if our (better) starter is out for a series, a game, a month, or whatever, that we could do a lot worse than Fitzpatrick. Meh also means you don't try to build a team around him or contractually lock us into him as starter for 1 game more than necessary because he is meh. 

The good news, which Jason brought up, is that there's likely few other teams - if any - that would have any desire to bring in Fitzpatrick for their own team at more than backup money.

[Jetsfan80]

The good news, which Jason brought up, is that there's likely few other teams - if any - that would have any desire to bring in Fitzpatrick for their own team at more than backup money.

And I highly doubt a guy with 5 kids in the tail end of his playing career desires to play for his 4th different team in as many years.   He's already got a lot of money (with the Bills footing the majority of his retirement fund) and he and his wife are both Harvard grads, with Fitz having a degree in economics.  They're not going to be short of career options or college funds for the kids after his NFL days are done. 

He also happens to be in a great situation here, with an OC he trusts and 2 stud WR's who are going nowhere for at least 2 years.  I'm sure he'll value that kind of stability.  All that adds up to a team-friendly and cap-friendly deal.

 

[Sperm Edwards]

IDK, Sperm... To say he panics, I dont see it.  Does he focus in on a match up he likes, absolutely.  To say the game is too fast for him, unlikely.

The repeated lack of sliding is an act of panic. He knows better if you were to ask him 5 seconds later or in the film room. Getting rid of the ball too soon, without bothering to survey his other WRs, is also an act of panic. He doesn't merely focus on a matchup he likes. He focuses on the first guy he looks at and never looks elsewhere (other than his RB, sometimes).

[Jetsfan80]

The repeated lack of sliding is an act of panic. He knows better if you were to ask him 5 seconds later or in the film room.

Fitzpatrick has stated previously that he slides headfirst because of his High School baseball days.  He always slid headfirst, and translated that to his football days.  I hate that he does it, and it cost him a game in 2015, but he's not changing at this point.

[Sperm Edwards]

And I highly doubt a guy with 5 kids in the tail end of his playing career desires to play for his 4th different team in as many years.  All that adds up to a team-friendly and cap-friendly deal.  He's already got a lot of money (with the Bills footing the majority of his retirement fund) and he and his wife are both Harvard grads.  They're not going to be short of options after his NFL days are done.  He also happens to be in a great situation here, with an OC he trusts and 2 stud WR's who are going nowhere for at least 2 years. 

I'm sure he'll value some stability. 

Again, I'm 100% fine with him coming back at the $6M range, give or take. I'm ok with him getting $6M for 2017 as well, since high-level backups were getting $4-5M 2-3 years ago and the cap is higher now.

What I'm not ok with, and where I jumped in, is people advocating for $10M, $12M, and maybe more, and rationalizing that the only other option for the team in 2016 is Geno Smith.

[Jetsfan80]

Again, I'm 100% fine with him coming back at the $6M range, give or take. I'm ok with him getting $6M for 2017 as well, since high-level backups were getting $4-5M 2-3 years ago and the cap is higher now.

What I'm not ok with, and where I jumped in, is people advocating for $10M, $12M, and maybe more, and rationalizing that the only other option for the team in 2016 is Geno Smith.

He's not the only option, but our QB options will be extremely limited, just like they are any season, as teams don't just trade away halfway decent QB's, and we can't depend on getting another Fitzpatrick for a 7th rounder again. 

If Fitz asks for too much, we let him walk, and figure it out.  But unless we get extremely lucky and someone like a Brees falls into our laps, that limits our options to Geno, Petty (a project QB), a rookie in a QB class that doesn't appear to have any immediately pro-ready Andrew Luck's, or a sh*tty free agent pickup.  None of those 4 options sound great to me, but if we must, we must. 

[Sperm Edwards]

Fitzpatrick has stated previously that he slides headfirst because of his High School baseball days.  He always slid headfirst, and translated that to his football days.  I hate that he does it, and it cost him a game in 2015, but he's not changing at this point.

It's also that he doesn't begin his slide until there's no room to slide. A disciplined QB who doesn't panic would begin his slide earlier. 

The play where he messed up his thumb was particularly bad not just because of sliding style, but because he already had the first down. He was either unaware of where he was or was unaware of the risk/reward of continuing to run.  If you asked him in the film room, even if he didn't get injured at all, he'd surely say yeah that was stupid I should have slid. He is unable to make that decision in real time. That is the game being too fast for him, even after more than a decade in the league.

[Jetsfan80]

It's also that he doesn't begin his slide until there's no room to slide. A disciplined QB who doesn't panic would begin his slide earlier. 

The play where he messed up his thumb was particularly bad not because of sliding style, but because he already had the first down. He was either unaware of where he was or was unaware of the risk/reward of continuing to run.  If you asked him in the film room, even if he didn't get injured at all, he'd surely say yeah that was stupid I should have slid. He is unable to make that decision in real time. That is the game being too fast for him, even after more than a decade in the league.

Meh, again, I don't like his sliding tendencies, both the headfirst approach AND his decisions not to slide quickly enough.  Like you said, the dude has balls and wants to fight for extra yards.  But that's not the game being too fast for him, its him being reckless.  His teammates respect his willingness to take hits. 

I prefer to look at the fact that he was basically the game's most efficient QB in terms of his decisions to run with it last season (which explained his high QBR in ESPN's mostly stupid metric).  Just about every time he decided to run with it, he got a first down.  I wish he would be less reckless, but you cannot chalk up his running style/success to the game being "too fast" for him.  Quite the contrary.  He has excellent instincts in that department, and it's a trait that helps directly lead to wins.

[KRL]

And I highly doubt a guy with 5 kids in the tail end of his playing career desires to play for his 4th different team in as many years.   He's already got a lot of money (with the Bills footing the majority of his retirement fund) and he and his wife are both Harvard grads, with Fitz having a degree in economics.  They're not going to be short of career options or college funds for the kids after his NFL days are done. 

He also happens to be in a great situation here, with an OC he trusts and 2 stud WR's who are going nowhere for at least 2 years.  I'm sure he'll value that kind of stability.  All that adds up to a team-friendly and cap-friendly deal.

 

Agree big time!!!  Fitzpatrick has the perfect situation here and I can't see any other team "desiring him" so much

to give him a 8+ million dollar offer

[Sperm Edwards]

Meh, again, I don't like his sliding tendencies, both the headfirst approach AND his decisions not to slide quickly enough.  Like you said, the dude has balls and wants to fight for extra yards.  But that's not the game being too fast for him, its him being reckless.  His teammates respect his willingness to take hits. 

I prefer to look at the fact that he was basically the game's most efficient QB in terms of his decisions to run with it last season (which explained his high QBR in ESPN's mostly stupid metric).  Just about every time he decided to run with it, he got a first down.  I wish he would be less reckless, but you cannot chalk up his running style/success to the game being "too fast" for him.  Quite the contrary.  He has excellent instincts in that department, and it's a trait that helps directly lead to wins.

So it's a stupid metric unless it shows something you think helps an argument you're trying to make?  

And it's not balls it's panic (unless the game or the Super Bowl is on the line). Panic is when you don't have control of yourself and just ACT in a way you wouldn't if you were afforded the time to think it through. Balls is saying, well this situation here is now or never and despite the danger to myself I'm willing to do this dangerous act in front of me because I'm thinking of my team more than myself. Or balls is a QB throwing a block - which Fitzpatrick does willingly - that has little risk to himself other than additional bumps and bruises that might leave him more sore later.

His "instincts" are to throw it deep, to covered receivers, on 3rd and relatively short? That is not instinct. It's a panic move borne of him staring down one target, leaving him no option but to panic into a low-percentage attempt. It's a panic move to risk yourself, as a stacked team's starting QB, to gain extra insignificant yards on our own 37 yard line, barely 3 minutes into a scoreless game against the Raiders. If that's "instinct" it's a terrible instinct. Terrible instincts = acts of panic. 

[Sperm Edwards]

Agree big time!!!  Fitzpatrick has the perfect situation here and I can't see any other team "desiring him" so much

to give him a 8+ million dollar offer

Yep. It's a good situation for the Jets. The team likes him, the fans like him; he's a likable guy. He's certainly good enough to trot out there while the team has nothing else except a physically talented QB who doesn't have the sense to know what to do with his talent (let alone how to be a leader). And it should also be low enough that the team wouldn't stop looking to improve, even for one offseason, and wouldn't need to cut him even if he was demoted to second string.

If/when we find someone else, I'd keep Fitz as a backup at $6M indefinitely, for as long as he wanted to stick around (or until he's just too old). QBs get injured far too easily and look at what it did to the teams' seasons in Indy, Dallas, and what would have been with the Jets.

My objection was in bringing him back at $10M or more, particularly if that rate came with more than just the upcoming season in guarantees. 

[Jetsfan80]

So it's a stupid metric unless it shows something you think helps an argument you're trying to make?  

And it's not balls it's panic (unless the game or the Super Bowl is on the line). Panic is when you don't have control of yourself and just ACT in a way you wouldn't if you were afforded the time to think it through. Balls is saying, well this situation here is now or never and despite the danger to myself I'm willing to do this dangerous act in front of me because I'm thinking of my team more than myself. Or balls is a QB throwing a block - which Fitzpatrick does willingly - that has little risk to himself other than additional bumps and bruises that might leave him more sore later.

His "instincts" are to throw it deep, to covered receivers, on 3rd and relatively short? That is not instinct. It's a panic move borne of him staring down one target, leaving him no option but to panic into a low-percentage attempt. It's a panic move to risk yourself, as a stacked team's starting QB, to gain extra insignificant yards on our own 37 yard line, barely 3 minutes into a scoreless game against the Raiders. If that's "instinct" it's a terrible instinct. Terrible instincts = acts of panic. 

Even bad metrics occasionally have value!  lol.

OK, I see your point.  I am willing to compromise on this by suggesting that many, but not all, of his scrambles are panic moves.  Where I'm ok with that is twofold:  1) Most of the time the results are positive and get us a 1st down, and 2) It prevents him from tossing up an interception.  You're starting to get a bit nitpicky here!  His panic THROWS are worth criticism.  But not so much his panic RUNS.

[LIJetsFan]

Yep. It's a good situation for the Jets. The team likes him, the fans like him; he's a likable guy. He's certainly good enough to trot out there while the team has nothing else except a physically talented QB who doesn't have the sense to know what to do with his talent (let alone how to be a leader). And it should also be low enough that the team wouldn't stop looking to improve, even for one offseason, and wouldn't need to cut him even if he was demoted to second string.

If/when we find someone else, I'd keep Fitz as a backup at $6M indefinitely, for as long as he wanted to stick around (or until he's just too old). QBs get injured far too easily and look at what it did to the teams' seasons in Indy, Dallas, and what would have been with the Jets.

My objection was in bringing him back at $10M or more, particularly if that rate came with more than just the upcoming season in guarantees. 

So you'd be ok with 4 yrs 26m, half garranteed?  I wonder if that might interest him.

[Sperm Edwards]

Even bad metrics occasionally have value!  lol.

OK, I see your point.  I am willing to compromise on this by suggesting that many, but not all, of his scrambles are panic moves.  Where I'm ok with that is twofold:  1) Most of the time the results are positive and get us a 1st down, and 2) It prevents him from tossing up an interception.  You're starting to get a bit nitpicky here!  His panic THROWS are worth criticism.  But not so much his panic RUNS.

Both are worthy. The former can end a drive. The latter can end the season -- particularly if the team makes no serious contingency plans. My desire is for Fitz to fast become the contingency plan.

[Sperm Edwards]

So you'd be ok with 4 yrs 26m, half garranteed?  I wonder if that might interest him.

Yes that would be totally fine with me. The worst case scenario of that contract is in carrying a $6M nut for him to be the #2 QB. I'm totally ok with that; you'd be hard-pressed to find a better #2 other than by blind luck. Freaking Hasselbeck got $4M. Chad Henne got 2 years $9M (granted some of the reason was because of his presumed upside as a young guy with a strong arm, for whom the light might just click on).