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First and goal

Clayton

By John Clayton

ESPN.com

7. The Super Bowl defense eliminator: Don't you get the feeling an unconventional team could win Super Bowl XLI? Since 1983, every Super Bowl winner has ranked in the top 10 in scoring defense. If that eliminates teams from consideration, then you can scratch seven teams -- the Chiefs (11th at 19.7 points a game), the Saints (13th at 20.1), the Eagles (15th at 20.5), the Seahawks (19th at 21.3), the Cowboys (20th at 21.9), the Colts (23rd at 22.5) and the Giants (24th at 22.6). Five of the defenses not ranked in the top 10 for scoring are in the NFC, meaning only the Bears would have a chance of winning the Super Bowl. The four AFC teams in the top 10 are the Ravens, Patriots, Jets and Chargers. The Chargers are clearly the most complete team. They score 30.8 points a game and they give up 18.9 points a game, eight best in the league. The Ravens score 22.1 points and give up a league-low 12.6. Will defense win the championship or will it be offense?

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Another reason why Clayton is one of my favorite analysts. Its really very simple when the playoffs come around. Teams relying on their offense to win their games will struggle. The Super Bowl should come down to one of those 4 teams from the AFC (Ravens, Chargers, Pats, Jets) and probably the Bears out of the NFC (although I would not count out the Eagles).

Amazing that with all the numbers available, points per game allowed is such a strong predictor of playoff success.

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I don't know which QBs are above and below 64% completions but I know Bill Walsh had a theory that a QB could not be below that number to win it all and over the past fifteen years or so, the vast majority of SB winning QBs are above that number. I don't remember the exact details, I'm going off of memory on an article I read earlier this season.

Just checked it out

QBs with completion pct above 64%

Jets

Colts

Dallas

New Orleans

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