Honest question regarding top 5 pick

[4HCrew]

Before I even get caught up in hoping for a top 5 pick which will probably happen anyway, can the Jets even afford one with their current cap situation? I think I read somewhere they will be like 25 million over going into next year. Anyone hear about this?

[Sperm Edwards]

Yeah. They can definitely get under by restructuring a bunch of people & cutting certain others.

But that begs another question: is this team a top-5 pick (and his top-5 salary) from even being respectable? Or more to the point, IS IT WORTH IT?

With guys like Leinart & Bush coming out, some team will be willing to give up a bunch of picks to trade up.

I'd prefer cutting as much dead weight as financially possible, including:

Chad

Curtis

Abe - franchise him & trade him for anyone's first-round pick; more if we can get it

Law

Chrebet

Coles (even though I like him we'd never get him to restructure to a dollar amount we can afford if purging these others & I think Wash gave him his bonus dollars)

Before I get killed for this, I freely admit that I doubt we can cut all these guys in 1 year & remain under the 2006 cap. But free up as many roster spots & cap $ for 2006 & beyond.

I'd love to be able to do what SD did 2 years ago - (traded down from 1 to 4 & got another 1 and I think a 2 or a 3) - except CONTINUE to trade down, out of the #4 position etc. If done right, we could possibly end up with like 7+ first-day picks plus I'm sure we'll get decent compensatory picks for Jordan, etc.

The logic behind the worst teams getting the highest picks was to help those teams more than those that were already good. But with the salary cap & salaries pretty much pre-determined by draft position, it eats up so much cap space that it's even HARDER to rebuild at multiple positions by HAVING at top-5 pick.

I'd rather have like 8 first-day picks: hope for 1 great one, 2-3 really good ones & 2-3 more legit/serviceable starters than the potential for 1 impact player (there are no sure things) plus known quantity John Abraham.

Even Peyton Manning or LT don't win championships by just being great individual players. We need a team, not a single superstar.

[bitonti]

cutting Chad is not an option. He hits the cap for as much as if he stays than as if he goes. Yes they can cut/not resign others to get a top 5 pick under the cap but it will not be fun. i've said it before i will say it again they don't need wholesale changes they need the player they have to remain healthy. What happens when this savior top 5 pick comes in and tears his knee up? Fire the coach?

[Sperm Edwards]

cutting Chad is not an option. He hits the cap for as much as if he stays than as if he goes. Yes they can cut/not resign others to get a top 5 pick under the cap but it will not be fun. i've said it before i will say it again they don't need wholesale changes they need the player they have to remain healthy. What happens when this savior top 5 pick comes in and tears his knee up? Fire the coach?

First of all, if he costs the same amount to cut him or keep him, I say cut him & rid ourselves of the rest of his ludicrous contract.

Second, that is exactly what I was saying - I don't want the top pick or the #5 pick. Not at that salary. But I DO want what we can get FOR those types of picks.

[4HCrew]

So I guess it comes down to the overrall feeling..I think the Jets are now more than one good player away. The O Line needs a huge upgrade, they need a DT in the worse way and not going to even touch the rb or qb problems. So spending the big bucks on a Bush may not be the answer but compounding the problems.

[PatsFanTX]

Second, that is exactly what I was saying - I don't want the top pick or the #5 pick. Not at that salary. But I DO want what we can get FOR those types of picks.

Not only would the Jets struggle to sign a top 5 pick, they have far more holes then one player.

Trading out of the top 5 would probably yield the Jets a lower 1st rounder plus a 2nd. That along with the Jets already 2nd rounder (32-37) they should be able to come away with 3 quality, impact players.

One player will not improve the Jets roster.

[Ikeyman3]

Not only would the Jets struggle to sign a top 5 pick, they have far more holes then one player.

Trading out of the top 5 would probably yield the Jets a lower 1st rounder plus a 2nd. That along with the Jets already 2nd rounder (32-37) they should be able to come away with 3 quality, impact players.

One player will not improve the Jets roster.

True, but if we do have a top 5 pick and could get a impact player a franchise type of guy you get him. That is why I really can't fualt Bradway's logic for going after D-Rob. He has not really panned out but If you feel you can get your LT or Aikman in the top 3 you get them. A franchise guy is much better than 3 solid players.

[Ikeyman3]

Anyway ansewring the original question we can easily fit a top draft pick into next year's cap. The picks first year base salary is usually very low.

[PatsFanTX]

True, but if we do have a top 5 pick and could get a impact player a franchise type of guy you get him. That is why I really can't fualt Bradway's logic for going after D-Rob. He has not really panned out but If you feel you can get your LT or Aikman in the top 3 you get them. A franchise guy is much better than 3 solid players.

Ickey, unless that player is a QB, I totally disagree. Give me 3 solid performers who can start immediately over a "potential" franchise player any day of the week.

[Maedhros]

One franchise player can have a huge impact too though...

Take a look at Vick. Falcons were shadowed in mediocrity until he came; in his two starting seasons he's gone twice to the playoffs.

Vick's stats aren't great, but a feared franchise player brings many intangibles to the table; for example, the defense has to respect Vick's running and thus have to contain the outsides, opening huge lanes for Dunn in the middle.

Of course, a big part in our 2004 success was Rod Coleman. Best pass rushing DT in the league.

[RSJ]

Of course, a big part in our 2004 success was Rod Coleman. Best pass rushing DT in the league.

I agree.

But don't tell Bit - he thinks you need to be a top 5 pick to be a productive DT in the NFL. Obviously he forgets about the former 5th rounder Rod Coleman.

[Ikeyman3]

Ickey, unless that player is a QB, I totally disagree. Give me 3 solid performers who can start immediately over a "potential" franchise player any day of the week.

Are you telling me you would rather have 3 solid contributors over a Julius Peppers/Ladanian Tomlinson/Larry Fitz type of franchuise player that is not a QB?

[PatsFanTX]

Are you telling me you would rather have 3 solid contributors over a Julius Peppers/Ladanian Tomlinson/Larry Fitz type of franchuise player that is not a QB?

Did you KNOW those guys would be as good as they are when they were drafted?

Granted, they are exceptional players, but when the draft rolls around I would still rather have three solid contibutors rather then a "possible" franchise player.

Don't get me wrong, I see exactly where you are coming from, but there is more risk in your scenario then in my scenario.

[Ikeyman3]

I see where you are coming from as well. The 49ers dynasty was built of playing by trading first round picks for second rounders and drafting multiple solid players.

Yeah sure there is more risk, but there is also risk in your scenario that when you trade down the combind talent level of the safe picks does not equal the franchise DE, RB, WR etc.

Look at the Orlando Pace scenario we drafted solid players but Pace would have looked good in the Green and White for all these years.

[Sperm Edwards]

It's just a difference in opinion.

I'd only lay out a signing bonus in the $20M range for a KNOWN quantity like a free agent or to retain my own superstar, not for potential.

For every top-5 RB like LT, there's a Ki-Jana Carter, Curtis Enis, Lawrence Phillips, & Blair Thomas.

For every top-5 WR like Larry Fitzgerald, there's a Charles Rogers, Peter Warrick & Michael Westbrook.

For every top-5 QB like Peyton/Eli/Carson/McNabb you've got Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, & Heath Shuler.

For every top-5 D-lineman like Julius Peppers there's a Gerard Warren, Courtney Brown, Andre Wadsworth, & Dan Wilkinson. (I'm still giving D-Rob more time since he's still a very young kid)

It's not like these busts only occur 10% of the time when they're picked that high. It's closer to 50-50. Even if they're serviceable, the signing bonus at that level is WAY to steep nowadays to gamble on an unknown.

You're paying for a great, great superstar & we can't afford a serviceable starter at that money like a Kerry Collins, let alone a bust like Tim Couch.

Consider the top-5 picks from the 10 years from 1995-2004. I can find PLENTY of players I wouldn't give a $20M signing bonus to:

1995

1. Ki-Jana Carter

2. Tony Boselli

3. Steve McNair

4. Michael Westbrook

5. Kerry Collins

1996

1. Keyshawn Johnson

2. Kevin Hardy

3. Simeon Rice

4. Jonathan Ogden

5. Cedric Jones

1997

1. Orlando Pace

2. Darrell Russell

3. Shawn Springs

4. Peter Boulware

5. Bryant Westbrook

1998

1. Peyton Manning

2. Ryan Leaf

3. Andre Wadsworth

4. Charles Woodson

5. Curtis Enis

1999

1. Tim Couch

2. Donovan McNabb

3. Akili Smith

4. Edgerrin James

5. Ricky Williams

2000

1. Courtney Brown

2. LaVar Arrington

3. Chris Samuels

4. Peter Warrick

5. Jamal Lewis

2001

1. Michael Vick

2. Leonard Davis

3. Gerard Warren

4. Justin Smith

5. LaDainian Tomlinson

2002

1. David Carr

2. Julius Peppers

3. Joey Harrington

4. Mike Williams (the T, not the WR)

5. Quentin Jammer

2003

1. Carson Palmer

2. Charles Rogers

3. Andre Johnson

4. Dewayne Robertson

5. Terrence Newman

2004

1. Eli Manning

2. Robert Gallery

3. Larry Fitzgerald

4. Philip Rivers

5. Sean Taylor

[The Troll]

I definitely agree with Sperm's way of thinking to an extent. I would rather trade down and accumulate a ton of picks, rather than select Lineart or Bush, but I'm not at all in favor of trading down if we can select D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Franchise tackles do not grow on trees. I'm sure we all remember the Orlando Pace/Farrior trade very well. If we can get a cornerstone to the franchise, I say go get him. It's not like the Jets are going to improve by leaps and bounds next year anyway. Another top ten pick (and another chance to trade down and start accumulating young talent) will await in 2007.

[4HCrew]

You guys a forgetting one important part to this equation.... Bradway has to draft the players.. but I think at this point collecting a group of young strong players has to be the priority.

[Preston Howley III]

I agree with Sperm. Too bad Bradway is the GM and too bad he listens to that other moron, Herm.

Be prepared for more CYA and panic moves.

[faba]

Yes the only problem with accumulating draft picks is that you make the right picks. On the whole Bradway track record has not been very good with this

see Bryan Thomas, BJ. Askew and trade up for Robertson was too much to give up as of right now in retrospect

[Sperm Edwards]

I definitely agree with two points regarding taking the high pick:

1) We are desperate for a young, stud left tackle in the worst way.

2) TB may still be making our picks - could be the best point of all. I don't want to stockpile our picks to get 1st-rounders like Thomas, 2nd-rounders like Hobson/Nugent, & 3rd-rounders like Askew.

Worse still, is the possibility that he trades more high picks for mediocre players (#40 pick in the deepest draft in years & he gives it away for McCariens, who he then gives a $31M deal). Or trades picks to move up (D-Rob for two firsts, Santana for a first & a second as Hackett's implementing a WCO).

Scott you are absolutely right. Boobway has to go & let the new GM pick a HC...and our rookies.

[stormshadow19]

First of all, if he costs the same amount to cut him or keep him, I say cut him & rid ourselves of the rest of his ludicrous contract.

Second, that is exactly what I was saying - I don't want the top pick or the #5 pick. Not at that salary. But I DO want what we can get FOR those types of picks.

No, you missed what Bit said. Cutting him now would be more than what he makes. The cap hit for cutting him is higher than if he's with the team.

And, I'm all for trading down. I'm not too keen on trading assets, but when you're in cap hell, you have to do something to keep your head afloat. The Jets are in for a massive blood letting this offseason. Hopefulyl, they get a good coach who has a good scheme.

They have to revamp the entire offensive line. The skill positions need to have improved play. The defense needs to man up and stop the run.