eboozer Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 By Craig Hoffman - Jan 30th, 2014 at 5:30 amhttp://thejetpress.com/2014/01/30/new-york-jets-nfl-draft-sammy-watkins-marqise-lee-kelvin-benjamin-mike-evans-jordan-matthews/ Greg Peshek, otherwise known on Twitter as @NU_Gap, has done two pieces breaking down the top wide receivers entering the 2014 NFL Draft for Rotoworld. You can see them in their entirety here and here. Peshek measures where they get the ball on the field, what they do after the catch, what routes they run and their drop rate. The wide receivers measured are Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, Marqise Lee, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., and Allen Robinson. These receivers are the ones currently projected to be taken within the first 50 picks of which the Jets have two (#18 and #50) so it is likely that one of these players may be a Jet next season. Let’s take a look at the data and see what it means in layman’s terms. The first measure is where they get the ball on the field. According to Peshek, both Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews catch an enormous number of screen passes. 57.4% of Watkins receptions were on screens and Matthews caught 45.8% of his balls in that manner. To put that in perspective that is double the amount of the next receiver on the list. Screens are a significant part of the West Coast offense and the Jets threw more than they have in the recent past last year but they still didn’t have a player that was a consistent threat to take it for a touchdown. On the other hand the Jets also need players who are threats in the intermediate and deep passing game. Odell Beckham Jr. caught 62% of his passes 11 yards from the line of scrimmage or deeper, Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin both had over 25% of their catches over 20 yards from the line of scrimmage with Benjamin having a total of 50% from 11 yards or deeper. These are the passes that Geno Smith excels at so having players that can win the battles and get open in those areas is key. Secondly yards after the catch is important as well because the ability to turn a bad play into something and a good play into a game changing play are sometimes the difference between winning and losing. The leader in this category, not surprisingly, is Sammy Watkins at 8.48 yards. However Watkins only averages catching the ball four yards from the line of scrimmage so his number isn’t as impressive as Mike Evans who catches it on average 14 yards from the line of scrimmage while still averaging 7.63 yards after the catch. Jordan Matthews was second at 7.8 yards after the catch, behind him was Allen Robinson at 7.56 with Marquise Lee rounding out the players over 7 yards after the catch with 7.05. The most fascinating statistic that Peshek shares is that 83% of Odell Beckham Jr.’s receptions went for 1st downs which is a testament to his big play ability and route running. Next the kinds of routes were compared. In Peshek’s charts here what to look for is a variety to show that the receiver knows the entire route tree and isn’t limited to running basic stuff. The wide receiver with the best distribution of routes is Jarvis Landry. Nearly 70% of his routes were sharp cuts on ins and outs to go with slants and deep posts. He ran a straight go route 7.5% of the time with the rest on comeback routes (either designed or off of scramble drills). All of Odell Beckham Jr.’s route percentages are within normal range showing that he can showcase all the routes effectively. Almost 21% of Kelvin Benjamin’s routes were go routes to utilize his size and speed. Marquise Lee runs an abnormally high number of in and out routes at 43% and the lowest amount of go routes at 4.5% which is more of a function of USC’s short passing game and inconsistent quarterback play. Mike Evans not surprisingly has a very high rate of comeback routes at 43% because an abnormal amount of plays are scramble drills because of Johnny Manziel. The last statistic is drop percentage which if you watched the Jets this year you know how important hands are to a wide receiver. According to Peshek, anything below 7% is above average. Jarvis Landry dropped only two balls all season for a 2.5% drop rate which is incredible. Evans was next at 4.29% then Watkins at 4.49% followed by Cooks at 4.69% then Robinson at 5.43%. Beckham Jr. completes the receivers under 7% at 6.45%. The rest of the receivers are Matthews at 7.69% which is troubling because of all the screens he catches, Benjamin at 9.68% and Lee at a whopping 12.3%. Watkins, Beckham Jr., and Cooks also have excellent return ability and add an additional chance of making a game-changing play. Not counting Watkins who will be long gone by 18 the players I like most for the Jets are Evans and Beckham Jr. Evans is a huge red zone target that also has the speed to get deep, run after the catch and has good hands. Beckham Jr. is a big play receiver who runs excellent routes and can change a game with a big return as well. If the Jets go with another position in the first round Jarvis Landry would not be a bad consolation prize. He has terrific hands and is a crisp route runner. EBoozer note: I started this new thread 'cause that other article sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroadwayJoe12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The graphs actually make it significantly more digestible. At least give the numbers and let people interpret them how they wish. http://www.rotoworld...op-4-wr-metrics What Did They Do After They Caught It? How Did they Catch the Ball? How Are Their Hands? What Did They Do After They Caught It? How Did they Catch the Ball? How Are Their Hands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenseed4 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I had no problem with the previous article. Neither did the author of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenseed4 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'll tell you what, though, Jarvis Landry, 6'1, 195, only dropped 2 balls all season. That's incredible. He caught 77, for 1193. 10 TDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eboozer Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The graphs actually make it significantly more digestible. At least give the numbers and let people interpret them how they wish. http://www.rotoworld...op-4-wr-metrics What Did They Do After They Caught It? How Did they Catch the Ball? How Are Their Hands? What Did They Do After They Caught It? How Did they Catch the Ball? How Are Their Hands? I must have had a formatting problem! Charts never loaded. Thanks for the correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't understand the "how did they catch the ball?" chart. That is the percentage of their catches that came from each route? How do they come up to 100%? If 59% of Watkins catches were screens, how is that 34% of his catches were "post/corner"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleedin Green Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't understand the "how did they catch the ball?" chart. That is the percentage of their catches that came from each route? How do they come up to 100%? If 59% of Watkins catches were screens, how is that 34% of his catches were "post/corner"? That particular chart excludes screens, as it's meant to give an idea of the breakdown of the real routes they actually run. It definitely helps reading the article that goes with it, as it explains what's going into each of those charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That particular chart excludes screens, as it's meant to give an idea of the breakdown of the real routes they actually run. It definitely helps reading the article that goes with it, as it explains what's going into each of those charts. That is for when I get home from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'll tell you what, though, Jarvis Landry, 6'1, 195, only dropped 2 balls all season. That's incredible. He caught 77, for 1193. 10 TDs. spoke with a LSU beat writer who said Landry is a young Boldin and solid 2nd rounder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 spoke with a LSU beat writer who said Landry is a young Boldin and solid 2nd rounder. Villain and I both really like Landry, but I don't see the comparision to Boldin. Didn't Boldin have like 20 pounds on him at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroadwayJoe12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 spoke with a LSU beat writer who said Landry is a young Boldin and solid 2nd rounder. Was the beat writer one of the LSU undergrads who writes for the daily tiger? Villain and I both really like Landry, but I don't see the comparision to Boldin. Didn't Boldin have like 20 pounds on him at this point? Yea, pretty sure Boldin was closer to 220 coming out of FSU, ran in the 4.7s and just out-muscled everyone when he got to the next level, as he still does. I know he was a QB for the most part, how much receiver did he even play prior to the NFL? Landry is a fairly polished receiver, but not sure I see the comparison other than they both have good hands and might time a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JiFtheOracle Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I'll tell you what, though, Jarvis Landry, 6'1, 195, only dropped 2 balls all season. That's incredible. He caught 77, for 1193. 10 TDs. This is the reciever I'd prefer from LSU. The guy is just a natrual reciever. Looks the part, plays the part, would be a great addition in 2nd round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenseed4 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is the reciever I'd prefer from LSU. The guy is just a natrual reciever. Looks the part, plays the part, would be a great addition in 2nd round. He's the type of guy who gets swooped up at the bottom of the first, ala AJ Jenkins. I wouldn't mind trading down into the twenties to nab him. Especially if that means we get another 2nd or 3rd round pick. Landry and Bishop Sankey would be a nice start to really changing the face of this offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is the reciever I'd prefer from LSU. The guy is just a natrual reciever. Looks the part, plays the part, would be a great addition in 2nd round. JiF, Villain and #27? Talk about your unholy trinity. He's the type of guy who gets swooped up at the bottom of the first, ala AJ Jenkins. I wouldn't mind trading down into the twenties to nab him. Especially if that means we get another 2nd or 3rd round pick. Landry and Bishop Sankey would be a nice start to really changing the face of this offense. A.J. Jenkins. There is something to avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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