Jetsfan80 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I didn't realize that Hoyer is 30. I was thinking more like 27-28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I already disproved the idea that Geno's Jets going 8-8 is irrelevant in another thread. That team was outscored by 97 points overall and Geno played terrible. They should have won 5 games. This claim was validated based on his performance the following season, when the team around him was not significantly different and they went 4-12. If he played like he did in his first 2 years, the 2015 Jets go 6-10 at best. If he showed some improvement, maybe we go 7-9. No you didn't. Do you now deduct wins from Fitzpatrick's record because of late and OT missed FGs by Dallas and the Giants (on top of Coughlin gaffes), as well as NFL history's most improbable awarding of possession after losing an OT coin toss in NE? Do you say, "Well the 2015 Jets really should have only won 7 games if not for getting lucky"? Of course not. If you want to be the great statistical equalizer and deduct "could have just as easily lost" wins from that team, then do it for the 2015 team as well. Something tells me you'd have a lot to say about it if anyone tried arguing to you that Fit's really only "led" us to a maximum 7 wins because 3 of them shouldn't count (or really, less than 7 if someone tried to argue it's "fair" to swap joke opponents like the Titans, Browns, QB-less Cowboys, decimated Colts...), and then further deduct comparison-equalizer wins we wouldn't have won if you then replaced Decker with Holmes/Nelson and on top of that, replace Brandon Marshall with Stephen Hill. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 No you didn't. Do you now deduct wins from Fitzpatrick's record because of late and OT missed FGs by Dallas and the Giants (on top of Coughlin gaffes), as well as NFL history's most improbable awarding of possession after losing an OT coin toss in NE? Do you say, "Well the 2015 Jets really should have only won 7 games if not for getting lucky"? Of course not. No, because we were + 73 in net points. Our 10-6 record was very well deserved. I haven't looked it up, but I'm sure our Pythagorean expected win total was either right on the money or maybe 11. Meaning that for every argument you make about games we should have lost above, it's evened out by the games we were supposed to win if not for similar "lucky/unlucky" circumstances. Fitzpatrick was a winning QB last season, plain and simple. He performed above average, the team was above average, and our final record was 10-6. It doesn't require any expertise to see all of that. The Jets in 2013 were outscored by 97 and their Pythagorean expected wins was 5. Vastly different from the 2015 Jets. The 2014 Jets won 4 games after statistical "correction". There will be no such correction happening next year. I would expect we win 9+ games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 No, because we were + 73 in net points. Our 10-6 record was very well deserved. I haven't looked it up, but I'm sure our Pythagorean win total was either right on the money or maybe 11. Meaning that for every argument you make about games we should have lost above, it's evened out by the games we were supposed to win. The Jets in 2013 were outscored by 97 and their Pythagorean expected wins was 5. Vastly different from the 2015 Jets. Makes no difference. You are still comparing apples and oranges. The 2013 Jets didn't have the 2015 Jets defense, the 2015 Jets OL, the 2015 Jets WRs, or the 2015 Jets coaching staff. Unless you are going to make the argument that all those things - individually, and collectively - are totally unnecessary. As I recall, the Pythagorean Theorem only works for right triangles. Yours are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 No you didn't. Do you now deduct wins from Fitzpatrick's record because of late and OT missed FGs by Dallas and the Giants (on top of Coughlin gaffes), as well as NFL history's most improbable awarding of possession after losing an OT coin toss in NE? Do you say, "Well the 2015 Jets really should have only won 7 games if not for getting lucky"? Of course not. If you want to be the great statistical equalizer and deduct "could have just as easily lost" wins from that team, then do it for the 2015 team as well. Something tells me you'd have a lot to say about it if anyone tried arguing to you that Fit's really only "led" us to a maximum 7 wins because 3 of them shouldn't count (or really, less than 7 if someone tried to argue it's "fair" to swap joke opponents like the Titans, Browns, QB-less Cowboys, decimated Colts...), and then further deduct comparison-equalizer wins we wouldn't have won if you then replaced Decker with Holmes/Nelson and on top of that, replace Brandon Marshall with Stephen Hill. lol haha, ownage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 haha, ownage. I am home from work today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Makes no difference. You are still comparing apples and oranges. The 2013 Jets didn't have the 2015 Jets defense, the 2015 Jets OL, the 2015 Jets WRs, or the 2015 Jets coaching staff. Unless you are going to make the argument that all those things - individually, and collectively - are totally unnecessary. As I recall, the Pythagorean Theorem only works for right triangles. Yours are wrong. Exactly. And dont forget that the 2013 Jets didnt have that easy 2015 schedule either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I am home from work today. lol. Its great to own someone while still in your boxers sippin on a cup a coffee. I dig it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Exactly. And dont forget that the 2013 Jets didnt have that easy 2015 schedule either. I forget nothing, unless it's something Mrs. Sperm says I have to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 lol. Its great to own someone while still in your boxers sippin on a cup a coffee. I dig it! You dig boxers filled with Sperm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 You dig boxers filled with Sperm? sh*t, If it comes with a side order of ownage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I forget nothing, unless it's something Mrs. Sperm says I have to do. lmao. This dude is in rare form today! You should take a day off once every month bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Makes no difference. You are still comparing apples and oranges. The 2013 Jets didn't have the 2015 Jets defense, the 2015 Jets OL, the 2015 Jets WRs, or the 2015 Jets coaching staff. Unless you are going to make the argument that all those things - individually, and collectively - are totally unnecessary. As I recall, the Pythagorean Theorem only works for right triangles. Yours are wrong. 1. It's a real shame life isn't fair. We can't insert the 2015 Jet circumstances into Geno's situation 2013-14. Meanwhile, to make matters worse, the coaching staff had very little interest in using him this season, probably because they know a little better than us. Sorry, but sometimes a player's inability to get his "shot" is deserved. 2. With the lack of talent taken into account, Geno was ranked the 40th QB in 2013 by DVOA and 31st in 2014. Unless he took a giant step forward as a player (and not simply depended on the talent around him to get a little better results), he was not going to do really anything close to what even an average/above average QB like Fitz did this year. Actual results >>>> Imaginary results based on nothing. And we absolutely CAN make a few arguments based on the respective performances of the 2 QB's with entirely different rosters and coaching staffs. It's not perfect, but it's proof nonetheless. 3. Educate yourself. This is Bill James' stuff right here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation. The formula has been translated into the NFL as well: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=337 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 sh*t, If it comes with a side order of ownage! I'm still trying to get past the suggestion/inference that the Jets would have had the same stats on offense this year with a WR duo of David Nelson & Stephen Hill. My oh my, what an idiot Maccagnan was to not save cap room by trading Decker and passing on Marshall. Also he should have rehired Ryan and Mornhinweg, and found a rookie LG as bad as Winters was in 2013 to start every game instead of signing Carpenter. Also don't pick up Revis, don't pick up Gilchrist, and get Cromartie injured so he's statistically the 102nd-ranked CB in football, and then trot his ass out there for 16 games anyway. Because we want to do a "real" comparison, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Because we want to do a "real" comparison, right? Poor Geno. If only Fitzpatrick could have gotten hurt this year so that he'd have had a shot to show what he can do. Wait..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 1. It's a real shame life isn't fair. We can't insert the 2015 Jet circumstances into Geno's situation 2013-14. Meanwhile, to make matters worse, the coaching staff had very little interest in using him this season, probably because they know a little better than us. Sorry, but sometimes a player's inability to get his "shot" is deserved. 2. With the lack of talent taken into account, Geno was ranked the 40th QB in 2013 by DVOA and 31st in 2014. Unless he took a giant step forward as a player (and not simply depended on the talent around him to get a little better results), he was not going to do really anything close to what even an average/above average QB like Fitz did this year. Actual results >>>> Imaginary results based on nothing. And we absolutely CAN make a few arguments based on the respective performances of the 2 QB's with entirely different rosters and coaching staffs. It's not perfect, but it's proof nonetheless. 3. Educate yourself. This is Bill James' stuff right here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation. The formula has been translated into the NFL as well. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=337 No, it is not proof. It is imagining that advantages one had, and disadvantages another had, are 100% meaningless, and the results would have still ended the same way they did. Tell me something. In 2008 did Thomas Jones become a better RB than he was in 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Poor Geno. If only Fitzpatrick could have gotten hurt this year so that he'd have had a shot to show what he can do. Wait..... Hardly. Rookie Geno sucked then and would have sucked anyway. But he would have appeared to suck less with a cast that hid his suckiness more effectively. Just like a terrible team around him would have exposed Fitzpatrick more. Just like Sanchez was a sh*tty QB as a rookie and the Jets almost went to the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 No, it is not proof. It is imagining that advantages one had, and disadvantages another had, are 100% meaningless, and the results would have still ended the same way they did. Tell me something. In 2008 did Thomas Jones become a better RB than he was in 2007? I've said a few times that I think Geno would have won 6, maybe 7 games with this year's team. That's 2-3 more wins than he got in 2014, and better than the number of wins the team SHOULD have had in 2013. #Progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I've said a few times that I think Geno would have won 6, maybe 7 games with this year's team. That's 2-3 more wins than he got in 2014, and better than the number of wins the team SHOULD have had in 2013. #Progress #science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 #science Yes, I may be "imagining" results, but at least they're based on some decent science and numbers. You're just agreeing with the same garbage people spewed for months this year to say Geno would have done nearly as well as Fitz. No new information presented on your part to explain why. Just the same recycled nonsense. In any case this will be the last I have to say for a while on the Fitz/Geno topic. It's retired in my mind. I'll let you have the last word and bow out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm still trying to get past the suggestion/inference that the Jets would have had the same stats on offense this year with a WR duo of David Nelson & Stephen Hill. My oh my, what an idiot Maccagnan was to not save cap room by trading Decker and passing on Marshall. Also he should have rehired Ryan and Mornhinweg, and found a rookie LG as bad as Winters was in 2013 to start every game instead of signing Carpenter. Also don't pick up Revis, don't pick up Gilchrist, and get Cromartie injured so he's statistically the 102nd-ranked CB in football, and then trot his ass out there for 16 games anyway. Because we want to do a "real" comparison, right? I totally agree. I can only think "wow" everytime the Geno/Fitz comparison is even made as if the two teams were even the same. You compare a "rebuilding" season when Geno had the worst targets in the league and no true playmakers on either side of the ball to Fitz "built" season when he had the #1 WR duo in the league, 1000 yard rusher, a new LG and a better Brian Winters. Then compare the -97 points against Geno when he had the 27th ranked defense that was I think dead last in turnovers in the league yet won 8 games against the +73 Fitz when he had a top 10 defense along with being top 3 or top 5 in turnovers, yet can only convert that into 10 wins and no playoffs. I just sit back and watch people ignore the other side of the argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drdetroit Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I've said a few times that I think Geno would have won 6, maybe 7 games with this year's team. That's 2-3 more wins than he got in 2014, and better than the number of wins the team SHOULD have had in 2013. #Progress Geno won 8 games two years ago with an NFL Europe roster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Geno won 8 games two years ago with an NFL Europe roster Giving credit to Geno for winning 8 games with that roster would force him to acknowledge the possibility that Geno could have won more than 8 games with a roster that was vastly better in comparison. However, he knows by doing so he will indirectly discredit Fitzpatrick since Fitz had only accumulated just two more wins with that vastly better roster along with achieving the same outcome, which was no playoff birth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tinstar Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Geno won 8 games two years ago with an NFL Europe roster And he had no clue what he was doing really > Maybe he still doesn't, but I guess we will never know . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yes, I may be "imagining" results, but at least they're based on some decent science and numbers. You're just agreeing with the same garbage people spewed for months this year to say Geno would have done nearly as well as Fitz. No new information presented on your part to explain why. Just the same recycled nonsense. In any case this will be the last I have to say for a while on the Fitz/Geno topic. It's retired in my mind. I'll let you have the last word and bow out. False. Nothing of the sort has occurred or has been insinuated by me, except in your head. What I said and insinuated is the disparity would not have been as great. You'd be hard-pressed to find any objective person to believe otherwise, unless that objective person believes that all players and coaches (and the opponents played), outside of the QB position itself, are mostly meaningless and essentially equal. Whether you realize it or not, that is what you are arguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joejet Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I think we can all agree that with a better cast around him as well as with a weaker schedule a QB will have a better season than he would if surrounded by poor talent versus a strong schedule. The questions that no one can answer is what kind of season Geno would have had under the same circumstances. Based on past performance I would guess that he wouldn't have had the same success but I certainly don't know that. The other question is how will Fitzpatrick do against tougher competition . Assuming he signs with us and he stays healthy we should have that answer. The fear is that he will revert to his past performances and that we are stuck with a journeyman QB with a contract extension and still no long term answer moving forward. This will be an interesting possible turning point in the Mac, Bowles regime. They need to get this right. With a reasonable 2 - 3 year contract Fitz can either be that bridge for a young QB or if we are lucky he can be our Rich Gannon. The interesting decision will be whether we draft a QB early or not. I think that will give us insight as to how the leadership views Petty and Geno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.