Offensive Trends, Defensive Adjustments, The Jets and the Draft.

[Chrebetfan80]

It's off-season/clinic season for me so talking ball is just about all I do.  so i figured lets have a good old fashioned football discussion here in the draft forum. 

So, I figured we'd look at a few things in regard to offensive trends, how the defenses may need to adjust, and how it pertains to the jets and the draft. 

Looking at the teams in the conference championship games offensively, 3 of the 4 teams use a fullback regularly.   And many of those teams use 21, 22, 12 and sometimes even 23 personnel regularly in their offensive game plans.  

With the advent of the spread offense many defenses needed to get faster in order to cover the amount of ground that was being used by the offense in the spread system.  but there has been a shift in offensive philosophy over the last few seasons in part thanks to the success of the Shanahan wide zone offensive system.  Offenses are using bigger personnel and more condensed formations in order to punish Nickle teams in the run game.  

So what do defenses need to do moving forward?  that is the big questions mark as this progresses, and the conversation many coaches at all levels are having.  Do we see the resurgence of more gap scheme predominant run schemes and heavier offensive lineman that can push around these smaller fronts? we have already seen a big rise in the use of TE's.   Do defenses start to adjust by adding larger linebackers and bigger defensive tackles again?  

If that is the case what does it mean for a scheme like salehs that has been successful using smaller linebackers and faster defensive lines to attack offenses?  

I think the ravens are the best case of adapting to these new trends.  they have moved away from a blitz heavy defense to a more read and react split field coverage team with calculated pressures and more traditional players in terms of size.  For example, while saleh has historically preferred his linebackers in the 220-225 range (quincy is 225, mosely is around 230 this year)  the ravens have both linebackers in the 235-240 range.  Now the jets have been successful in this system so far and their linebackers have played incredibly well, but the questions remains, will the jets have to adapt here? do they start to move way from the traditional small undersized yet tall LB's and start to look for more traditional linebackers?

This year we saw them already start to adapt by signing al woods who was over 300 lbs to help with run support.  with woods set to hit FA (and being much older) and Mosely nearing the end of the road (albiet playing at a very high level) the questions becomes, do we need to start adapting?  If so, where in the draft would we look in order find later round players that can develop in this system and be ready to help this defense adapt and change with the times?

[TheMo]

Great topic man.

 

I've actually felt that a run dominant team could do remarkably well with the way the majority of the league is positioned right now with these quick light in the pants defenses. I think the success of purdy in SF shines a glaring light on the lack of program that Saleh and Douglas have put out there. Whole things is very unimpressive. Doesn't seem like there is any cohesive plan. Throwing your whole offense in the trash can and just building the AR offense reeks of a lack of any underlying philosophy.

 

Sorry for the rant but the high level question your asking is one I don't think either of the two people actually in charge could answer so I kinda just went off here.

 

Long story short I think you're right and it would be smart to pivot on offense a bit. On defense I think we're not too light up front and that may offer protections to the lighter LBs behind. 

[Asymmetrical]

8 hours ago, TheMo said:

Great topic man.

 

I've actually felt that a run dominant team could do remarkably well with the way the majority of the league is positioned right now with these quick light in the pants defenses. I think the success of purdy in SF shines a glaring light on the lack of program that Saleh and Douglas have put out there. Whole things is very unimpressive. Doesn't seem like there is any cohesive plan. Throwing your whole offense in the trash can and just building the AR offense reeks of a lack of any underlying philosophy.

 

Sorry for the rant but the high level question your asking is one I don't think either of the two people actually in charge could answer so I kinda just went off here.

 

Long story short I think you're right and it would be smart to pivot on offense a bit. On defense I think we're not too light up front and that may offer protections to the lighter LBs behind. 

Also sort of off topic, but yeah this has been bugging me. Even if next year is successful, whatever that means, they're still going to end up having to can Hackett the second Rodgers walks out the door. There is no pipeline, no philosophy on that side of the ball. It's just whatever Aaron wants until we all get fired. That's well and good for Douglas and Saleh but I suspect it's going to cause those of us that are stuck with the team some pain after they're gone. 

 

Anyway, back on topic, the Woods signing did kinda suggest a willingness to deviate from the preferred archetype on that side of the ball. I'd imagine the answer would be beefing up the interior dl rather than getting bigger at the second level.

[Chrebetfan80]

I think everyone got a chance to kind of see how it played out a little this weekend.  Cheifs decided to go into more of a gap scheme run and try to out muscle the Ravens.   

 

The lions built on a strong gap scheme run game really were handling the 9ers upfront for the entire first half.  Routinely ripping off big runs.  I think their defense stepped up in the second half, especially their linebackers, but I think we are starting to see these trends now come more into play in these playoffs than what we were used to. 

[maury77]

At least on the offensive side of the ball, it seems that you can make it to at least a championship game with a decent QB if your offensive line is dominant. A dominant offensive line should be theoretically easier to build than acquiring a franchise QB (although the Jets have done their best to make both seem impossible). 

Re defense, the Jets base d features JFM (who is a bigger 4-3 DE) and Johnson (who was very good against the run last year), so while the linebackers may be on the smaller side, the DL has good size. There is a piece that needs to be added next to Quinnen which is why someone like T'Vondre Sweat from Texas would be a nice addition in the 3rd (depending upon how the team addresses WR and OL in FA). 

[Chrebetfan80]

A strong offensive and run game is still the best most reliable way to win in the playoffs.  Run the ball, have a qb that can make the special play here and there, play strong defense and you are always going to be a tough out in the post season.  

We saw it last night,  Ravens were one of the best rushing teams in the league, they completely abandoned their run game against the cheifs (why?  I have my suspicions but thats another  conversation).  Conversely, the chiefs, who have mahommes, decided to pound the ball against a VERY stingy Ravens Defense and ran with success.  They utilized biggere personnel groups and gap scheme runs to pair with Pachecos violent style and they had good success, particularly in the first half.  

Lions too, gap scheme runs, letting gibbs and montgomery just devour that front of the 9ers early in that game.  

So going into the year, while the jets have been so committed to zone lineman and outside zone concepts, our biggest run plays on the season almost all came on gap scheme concepts.  It just an interesting thing to think about when talking about who to draft in  RD 1, and a reason I think Fuaga is going to gain a lot of steam as the draft leads up. 

Defensively for this team you make a good point JFM has been a bigger body for a 4-3/4-2-5 end, so was clemons and JJ.  This team does seem to prefer one wide 9 fast edge combined with a stronger 6tech DE on the opposite side.  As far as tackles go they definitely are looking for someone to pair with Williams inside.  All woods was a nice pickup this year to help take up 2 defenders in the run game, so finding someone like that would be a nice haul.  

Sweat would fit in really nicely, and another name is stackhouse from GA if we want that BIG time run stuffing nose, 

[football guy]

You're onto something RE: gap scheme usage. McVay has been a Shanahan outside zone predominant coach ever since his days being an offensive coordinator, but in 2023 they utilized gap scheme on 60% of their runs, which led the NFL. In 2022 they were closer to 40%, and the year before that only 25% which was towards the bottom of the NFL. 

1 hour ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

So going into the year, while the jets have been so committed to zone lineman and outside zone concepts, our biggest run plays on the season almost all came on gap scheme concepts.  It just an interesting thing to think about when talking about who to draft in  RD 1, and a reason I think Fuaga is going to gain a lot of steam as the draft leads up. 

Totally with you. The Jets want their identity to be running the football. Doesn't matter that Aaron Rodgers is here; they want to play great defense, be able to run at will, and create explosive throws off play-action. I think they think that's the most sustainable way to win, as you allude to in your post about winning in the playoffs. The real question becomes how do you do it effectively, and I think that's where you need to be able to self scout as well as understand what your opponents are doing, and if that means implementing more gap scheme concepts than that's what the Jets should do. We did utilize gap scheme on about 35-40% of their runs this year, which was middle of the pack, but a lot more than we've been accustomed to in the past few years. It will be interesting to see if we continue trending in that direction like the Rams did, especially with the FA and draft crop that's out there... guys like Mike Onwenu, Trent Brown, Tyron Smith, Kevin Dotson, Robert Hunt all make sense as versatile gap vs. zone guys 

[Chrebetfan80]

23 minutes ago, football guy said:

You're onto something RE: gap scheme usage. McVay has been a Shanahan outside zone predominant coach ever since his days being an offensive coordinator, but in 2023 they utilized gap scheme on 60% of their runs, which led the NFL. In 2022 they were closer to 40%, and the year before that only 25% which was towards the bottom of the NFL. 

Totally with you. The Jets want their identity to be running the football. Doesn't matter that Aaron Rodgers is here; they want to play great defense, be able to run at will, and create explosive throws off play-action. I think they think that's the most sustainable way to win, as you allude to in your post about winning in the playoffs. The real question becomes how do you do it effectively, and I think that's where you need to be able to self scout as well as understand what your opponents are doing, and if that means implementing more gap scheme concepts than that's what the Jets should do. We did utilize gap scheme on about 35-40% of their runs this year, which was middle of the pack, but a lot more than we've been accustomed to in the past few years. It will be interesting to see if we continue trending in that direction like the Rams did, especially with the FA and draft crop that's out there... guys like Mike Onwenu, Trent Brown, Tyron Smith, Kevin Dotson, Robert Hunt all make sense as versatile gap vs. zone guys 

Yea its the evolution of the game.  When defenses were big, the offenses spread the field out, made these larger guys play in greater space.  Hence the wide zone's popularity,  do not have to drive block anyone just fire off and position block guys and have quick agile lineman that can get up to the second level and give RB's a lane.  

Now though with teams being almost predominantly base nickel on defense and the 4-2-5 taking over for the bigger 3-4 teams, its become more about speed on defense and the ability to play in space.   Lb's flow so much faster now and their reads have completely changed from a coaching perspective.  Used to be that you keyed your guard/tackle and played down hill.  Then teams got into spread, ran zone with RPO off of it and forced Linebacker to be the conflict players.  Now you have triangle reads allowing backers to read the run direction first from their line key, then follow backfield action.  This forces the QB to make a read before the linebackers do in most cases which allows them then to fire downhill when the ball is handed off.  You see how San fran is doing it now where guys arent even spilling blocks, LB's are flowing downhill undercutting lineman to exploit gaps.  

Gap scheme runs are man blocking based so when facing teams with smaller backers and DL, if you can pull and get a hat on a hat its more effective than just trying to position block faster more athletic players.  The jets were way more successful id say on those runs than they were on zone blocking schemes.  It seemed like anytime we tried a traditional wide zone run we were blown up for a loss, while most of Breece's big runs were on power or counter. 

I think this discussion just helps us start to cut through some of the pre-draft minutia  about OL and start to more accurately scout guys that are a better realistic fit for the team's future and where the nfl is going. 

[football guy]

34 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

Yea its the evolution of the game.  When defenses were big, the offenses spread the field out, made these larger guys play in greater space.  Hence the wide zone's popularity,  do not have to drive block anyone just fire off and position block guys and have quick agile lineman that can get up to the second level and give RB's a lane.  

Now though with teams being almost predominantly base nickel on defense and the 4-2-5 taking over for the bigger 3-4 teams, its become more about speed on defense and the ability to play in space.   Lb's flow so much faster now and their reads have completely changed from a coaching perspective.  Used to be that you keyed your guard/tackle and played down hill.  Then teams got into spread, ran zone with RPO off of it and forced Linebacker to be the conflict players.  Now you have triangle reads allowing backers to read the run direction first from their line key, then follow backfield action.  This forces the QB to make a read before the linebackers do in most cases which allows them then to fire downhill when the ball is handed off.  You see how San fran is doing it now where guys arent even spilling blocks, LB's are flowing downhill undercutting lineman to exploit gaps.  

Gap scheme runs are man blocking based so when facing teams with smaller backers and DL, if you can pull and get a hat on a hat its more effective than just trying to position block faster more athletic players.  The jets were way more successful id say on those runs than they were on zone blocking schemes.  It seemed like anytime we tried a traditional wide zone run we were blown up for a loss, while most of Breece's big runs were on power or counter. 

I think this discussion just helps us start to cut through some of the pre-draft minutia  about OL and start to more accurately scout guys that are a better realistic fit for the team's future and where the nfl is going. 

To me its less of a question of what they should do, more what will they do. Early evidence suggests they implemented more gap scheme usage than they have in the past and as you mention were more effective doing so, but will they chalk that up to necessity due to the personnel they had available and decide to go out and get players they feel will work for a pure outside zone run scheme, or will they acknowledge what your saying and decide its the evolution of where the NFL is heading? For every coach willing to adapt like McVay did, there's a guy like Shanahan who sticks to his guns.

The smart move would be to do what your saying: adapt and lean into the gap scheme run game, understanding there will always be some sort of zig-zag between offenses and defenses in the NFL (as defenses become bigger again, offenses will start to spread out more). That will give us the best chance to be successful in the immediate future IMO, and I think it would be easier to find guys who can be more impactful right away given the talent available 

[Guilhermezmc]

1 hour ago, football guy said:

You're onto something RE: gap scheme usage. McVay has been a Shanahan outside zone predominant coach ever since his days being an offensive coordinator, but in 2023 they utilized gap scheme on 60% of their runs, which led the NFL. In 2022 they were closer to 40%, and the year before that only 25% which was towards the bottom of the NFL. 

Totally with you. The Jets want their identity to be running the football. Doesn't matter that Aaron Rodgers is here; they want to play great defense, be able to run at will, and create explosive throws off play-action. I think they think that's the most sustainable way to win, as you allude to in your post about winning in the playoffs. The real question becomes how do you do it effectively, and I think that's where you need to be able to self scout as well as understand what your opponents are doing, and if that means implementing more gap scheme concepts than that's what the Jets should do. We did utilize gap scheme on about 35-40% of their runs this year, which was middle of the pack, but a lot more than we've been accustomed to in the past few years. It will be interesting to see if we continue trending in that direction like the Rams did, especially with the FA and draft crop that's out there... guys like Mike Onwenu, Trent Brown, Tyron Smith, Kevin Dotson, Robert Hunt all make sense as versatile gap vs. zone guys 

I liked that you mentioned Mike Onwenu i do believe that he would fit very nicely with us

[Chrebetfan80]

20 minutes ago, football guy said:

To me its less of a question of what they should do, more what will they do. Early evidence suggests they implemented more gap scheme usage than they have in the past and as you mention were more effective doing so, but will they chalk that up to necessity due to the personnel they had available and decide to go out and get players they feel will work for a pure outside zone run scheme, or will they acknowledge what your saying and decide its the evolution of where the NFL is heading? For every coach willing to adapt like McVay did, there's a guy like Shanahan who sticks to his guns.

The smart move would be to do what your saying: adapt and lean into the gap scheme run game, understanding there will always be some sort of zig-zag between offenses and defenses in the NFL (as defenses become bigger again, offenses will start to spread out more). That will give us the best chance to be successful in the immediate future IMO, and I think it would be easier to find guys who can be more impactful right away given the talent available 

I do agree with the sentiment that its more about what will they do than what they should do.  I think looking at the trends more and more teams are becoming multiple in their approach to the run game, but even arden supporters of wide zone are including more and more gap scheme usage on game day.  Mostly because of how effective it has been with producing a multiple scheme run attack. Mcdaniels does this better than anyone really, he disguises his runs so well and mixes between gap and zone so effectively that it really puts your LB's in a bind when it comes to their reads. 

When it comes to the matter of should they or will they?  I think they end up moving towards grabbing guys that initially can get better in the gap scheme than just straight outside zone.  It's easier to find generally and easier to teach overall.  Zone requires so much chemistry, especially for feel on the double teams.  Thats why college teams have shifted to more Duo run schemes than Inside zone.  It's the exact same play, just how the double teams are taught is different. gap scheme has clear rules for the most part.  So being a team like the Jets who have severely lacked continuity on the offensive line due to injuries, it is almost impossible to be an effective outside zone team.  When you have 13 different line combinations, the ability to develop any chemistry in this run scheme would be non existent.  Which is why I believe when they have run power, counter, trap, duo they have had more success because it is rules based rather than space based.  This allows an easier assimilation of newer players into a system that relies less on chemistry.  

To me, you dont abandon the wide zone completely, I think you change how you run it.  For instance green bay does it from a deeper backfield and allows the defense to get up field to create lanes instead of stretching it so much horizontally.  Aaron jones showed it against the cowboys, they have almost developed a sort of inside/outside zone hybrid there.  Change the zone up slightly conceptually and increase the usage of gap scheme runs so that we can build a bigger more physical line upfront that will be able to grind smaller teams that we are seeing in the nfl.