Barring Injury - Odds of Every Player on Current Roster to Make the Final Cut

[Sarge4Tide]

• BOLD GREEN - Absolute Lock to be on the Opening Day Active Roster (33)
• GREEN - Pretty Good Shot at Making the Opening Day Active Roster (17)
• BOLD PURPLE - On the bubble with a chance to make it - STRONG Practice Squad Candidates (9)
• PURPLE - On the bubble with long odds to make it  - Possible Practice Squad Candidates (11)
• RED - Long Shots (7)
• BOLD RED - EXTREME LONG SHOTS (17)

 

Aaron Rogers QB	100
Breece Hall RB	100
Garrett Wilson WR	100
Mike Williams WR	100
Malachi Corley WR	100
Tyler Conklin TE	100
Jeremy Ruckert TE	100
Joe Tippmann C	100
Alijah Vera-Tucker G/T	100
Olu Fashanu T	100
Tyron Smith T	100
Morgan Moses OT	100
John Simpson G	100
Quinnen Williams DT	100
Jermaine Johnson DE/LB	100
Haason Reddick Edge	100
C.J. Mosley LB	100
Quincy Williams LB	100
Sauce Gardner CB	100
D.J. Reed C	100
Thomas Morstead P	100
Thomas Hennessy LS	100
Chuck Clark S	99
Greg Zuerlein PK	99
Will McDonald IV Edge	98
Javon Kinlaw DT	98
Michael Carter II CB	98
Tony Adams S	98
Ashtyn Davis S	97
Tyrod Taylor QB	95
Jordan Travis QB	94
Carter Warren OT	92
Braelon Allen RB	90
Xavier Gipson WR	88
Michael Clemons DE/DT	88
Jamien Sherwood LB	88
Brandin Echols CB	87
Allen Lazard WR	85
Solomon Thomas DL	85
Zaire Barnes LB	85
Isaiah Oliver CB	84
Leki Fotu DT	82
Jarrick Bernard-Converse S	82
Wes Schweitzer G/C	80
Max Mitchell OL	78
Jalyn Holmes DL	78
Israel Abanikanda RB	75
Isaiah Davis RB	75
Jaylen Key S(LB)	70
Irvin Charles WR	69
Zack Kuntz TE	68
Kenny Yeboah TE	65
Jason Brownlee WR	64
Chazz Surratt LB	62
Marcelino McCrary-Ball LB	54
Qwan’tez Stiggers CB(S)	53
Xavier Newman OL	50
Javelin Guidry CB	48
Jake Hanson OL	42
Braiden McGregor Edge	42
Nick Bawden FB	40
Malik Taylor WR	40
Chris Glaser G	39
Bruce Hector DL	39
Tanzel Smart DT	35
Marquiss Spencer DL	32
Tae Hayes CB	31
Leonard Taylor III DL	30
Al Blades DB	28
Manny Jones DL	25
Jarius Monroe S	24
Lance McCutcheon WR	22
Tyler Harrell WR	21
Eric Watts DL	18
Myles Jones CB	17
Xazavian Valladay RB	15
Bradlee Anae DL	15
Jacques Patrick RB	13
Brady Latham OL	9
Shemar Bartholomew CB	9
Vitaliy Gurman OL	7
Tre Jenkins LB	7
Austin Seibert PK	7
Marcus Riley WR	5
Austin Deculus OL	5
Tyreek Johnson Edge	5
Jackson Sirmon LB	5
Obinna Eze OL	4
Lincoln Sefcik TE(FB)	3
Willie Tyler OL	3
Jimmy Ciarlo LB	3
Byron “PeeWee” Jarrett QB	2

[Sperm Edwards]

@Sarge4Tide always a great thing to go through when you put yourself out like this with predictions. No one's going to agree with all of it, but yeah that's a lot easier to poke holes in a guy here or there than to compile odds for >100 players. With that...

I don't think there's a 15% chance that Lazard isn't on the team, and there are 11 million reasons why. That, plus the lack of interest the team's seen in bringing in another veteran, even as they know Williams is still rehabbing. If he gets cut at all it'd likely be in-season if he repeats his 2023 efforts, but that seems less likely. Their best case (other than him balling out, of course) is he's at least so-so and gets buried because Williams is healthy and the rookie eats his lunch & takes his playing time away instead of just handing it out. 

Also I think Solomon Thomas is likewise more in that 98-100% chance as well (even more so with the departure of JFM). Saleh knows him as well as anyone & wouldn't have brought him back before dealing JFM if they weren't planning to rely upon him. Plus they fully guaranteed $2.5MM of his $3MM ($750K of which was already paid as signing bonus). 

Schweitzer being at only 80% is likely more dependent upon them bringing or not bringing back McGovern. He's the only other center on the roster, right? I mean, unless you include Newman who went out there with almost no prep. Points for doing so, as opposed to I don't know what they'd do, but he wasn't too great at it. So I guess 80% is fair for Schwetizer, but note there's no real current-year cap savings for cutting him (he has a little guaranteed $ left, too, though it's not much); point is the only appreciable gain would be his roster spot. 

Good job as always, Sarge!

[slats]

I think there’s a good chance Jordan Travis spends the season on IR, with PeeWee getting the first crack at emergency QB on the practice squad. Although that could be filled with another castoff. 

I like the dark purple group, a lot of either/ors there. I lean towards Surratt, Stiggers, and Charles making the roster, and I’m rooting for Kuntz in the TE battle. 
 

[32EBoozer]

1 hour ago, Sarge4Tide said:

• BOLD GREEN - Absolute Lock to be on the Opening Day Active Roster (33)
• GREEN - Pretty Good Shot at Making the Opening Day Active Roster (17)
• BOLD PURPLE - On the bubble with a chance to make it - STRONG Practice Squad Candidates (9)
• PURPLE - On the bubble with long odds to make it  - Possible Practice Squad Candidates (11)
• RED - Long Shots (7)
• BOLD RED - EXTREME LONG SHOTS (17)

 

Aaron Rogers QB	100
Breece Hall RB	100
Garrett Wilson WR	100
Mike Williams WR	100
Malachi Corley WR	100
Tyler Conklin TE	100
Jeremy Ruckert TE	100
Joe Tippmann C	100
Alijah Vera-Tucker G/T	100
Olu Fashanu T	100
Tyron Smith T	100
Morgan Moses OT	100
John Simpson G	100
Quinnen Williams DT	100
Jermaine Johnson DE/LB	100
Haason Reddick Edge	100
C.J. Mosley LB	100
Quincy Williams LB	100
Sauce Gardner CB	100
D.J. Reed C	100
Thomas Morstead P	100
Thomas Hennessy LS	100
Chuck Clark S	99
Greg Zuerlein PK	99
Will McDonald IV Edge	98
Javon Kinlaw DT	98
Michael Carter II CB	98
Tony Adams S	98
Ashtyn Davis S	97
Tyrod Taylor QB	95
Jordan Travis QB	94
Carter Warren OT	92
Braelon Allen RB	90
Xavier Gipson WR	88
Michael Clemons DE/DT	88
Jamien Sherwood LB	88
Brandin Echols CB	87
Allen Lazard WR	85
Solomon Thomas DL	85
Zaire Barnes LB	85
Isaiah Oliver CB	84
Leki Fotu DT	82
Jarrick Bernard-Converse S	82
Wes Schweitzer G/C	80
Max Mitchell OL	78
Jalyn Holmes DL	78
Israel Abanikanda RB	75
Isaiah Davis RB	75
Jaylen Key S(LB)	70
Irvin Charles WR	69
Zack Kuntz TE	68
Kenny Yeboah TE	65
Jason Brownlee WR	64
Chazz Surratt LB	62
Marcelino McCrary-Ball LB	54
Qwan’tez Stiggers CB(S)	53
Xavier Newman OL	50
Javelin Guidry CB	48
Jake Hanson OL	42
Braiden McGregor Edge	42
Nick Bawden FB	40
Malik Taylor WR	40
Chris Glaser G	39
Bruce Hector DL	39
Tanzel Smart DT	35
Marquiss Spencer DL	32
Tae Hayes CB	31
Leonard Taylor III DL	30
Al Blades DB	28
Manny Jones DL	25
Jarius Monroe S	24
Lance McCutcheon WR	22
Tyler Harrell WR	21
Eric Watts DL	18
Myles Jones CB	17
Xazavian Valladay RB	15
Bradlee Anae DL	15
Jacques Patrick RB	13
Brady Latham OL	9
Shemar Bartholomew CB	9
Vitaliy Gurman OL	7
Tre Jenkins LB	7
Austin Seibert PK	7
Marcus Riley WR	5
Austin Deculus OL	5
Tyreek Johnson Edge	5
Jackson Sirmon LB	5
Obinna Eze OL	4
Lincoln Sefcik TE(FB)	3
Willie Tyler OL	3
Jimmy Ciarlo LB	3
Byron “PeeWee” Jarrett QB	2

Sarge, I'm just curious, are you stuck in Leavenworth serving out the remainder of your enlistment?

Where do you find the time to keep posting all these multi-colored lists?

Nice job!

[Sarge4Tide]

2 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

Sarge, I'm just curious, are you stuck in Leavenworth serving out the remainder of your enlistment?

Where do you find the time to keep posting all these multi-colored lists?

Nice job!