Strength Of Schedule for 2024- Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy!

[32EBoozer]

 

 

[Alworth]

I don't get excited by strength of schedule data, but I admit that the title made me think of the "excitement" described in Led Zeppelin's "The Lemon Song"

[Warfish]

This has been posted (and debated) previously.  Just FYI.

[juxsta]

Guess what the team with 5th hardest schedule did vs the team with 5th easiest schedule did last year. I don't buy into sos at all.

NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2023:

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. New Orleans Saints

3. Indianapolis Colts

4. San Francisco 49ers

5. Carolina Panthers

NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2023:

1. New England Patriots

2. Las Vegas Raiders

3. Miami Dolphins

4. Los Angeles Chargers

5. Kansas City Chiefs

[Larz]

 

1 hour ago, juxsta said:

Guess what the team with 5th hardest schedule did vs the team with 5th easiest schedule did last year. I don't buy into sos at all.

NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2023:

1. Atlanta Falcons

2. New Orleans Saints

3. Indianapolis Colts

4. San Francisco 49ers

5. Carolina Panthers

NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2023:

1. New England Patriots

2. Las Vegas Raiders

3. Miami Dolphins

4. Los Angeles Chargers

5. Kansas City Chiefs

Warren sharp gives a good explanation about his rankings 

What NFL team has the easiest schedule in 2024:

Based on projected win totals, the Atlanta Falcons have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2024 NFL season.

NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2024:

Atlanta Falcons

Los Angeles Chargers

Chicago Bears

New York Jets

New Orleans Saints

What NFL team has the hardest schedule in 2024:

Based on projected win totals, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2024 NFL season.

NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2024:

Pittsburgh Steelers

New England Patriots

Cleveland Browns

Baltimore Ravens

Minnesota Vikings

 

How accurate is Warren Sharp’s model for determining strength of schedule?

Looking at last season’s strength of schedule model:

Of the 15 teams predicted to have the easiest 2023 schedules, 11 finished with winning records (Saints, Colts, Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Steelers, Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers, Browns, and Bengals)

Of the 15 teams predicted to have the hardest 2023 schedules, only 5 finished with a winning record (Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Vikings)

Of the 7 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, all 7 had winning records (49ers, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Browns, and Steelers)

Of the 7 teams forecast to finish at or below .500 and predicted to have harder than average schedules, all 7 had losing records and 6 went under their win total (Vikings, Broncos, Giants, Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals)

Are strength of schedule projections accurate? 

Short answer: YES

Is strength of schedule important?

Of the 15 teams that actually had the easiest 2023 schedules, 10 went to the playoffs (Cowboys, Packers, Texans, Bills, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles, Lions, 49ers, and Chiefs) with 9-of-15 going over their win total

Of the 17 teams that actually had the hardest 2023 schedules, only 4 went to the playoffs (Steelers, Browns, Ravens, and Rams) with 4-of-17 going over their win total

Trying to overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens (4 out of 17 in 2023).

Likewise, winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectations happens often (9 out of 15 in 2023).

 

[PepPep]

1 hour ago, Larz said:

 

Warren sharp gives a good explanation about his rankings 

What NFL team has the easiest schedule in 2024:

Based on projected win totals, the Atlanta Falcons have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2024 NFL season.

NFL teams with the easiest schedules in 2024:

Atlanta Falcons

Los Angeles Chargers

Chicago Bears

New York Jets

New Orleans Saints

What NFL team has the hardest schedule in 2024:

Based on projected win totals, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the hardest strength of schedule for the 2024 NFL season.

NFL teams with the hardest schedules in 2024:

Pittsburgh Steelers

New England Patriots

Cleveland Browns

Baltimore Ravens

Minnesota Vikings

 

How accurate is Warren Sharp’s model for determining strength of schedule?

Looking at last season’s strength of schedule model:

Of the 15 teams predicted to have the easiest 2023 schedules, 11 finished with winning records (Saints, Colts, Texans, Lions, Jaguars, Steelers, Packers, Buccaneers, 49ers, Browns, and Bengals)

Of the 15 teams predicted to have the hardest 2023 schedules, only 5 finished with a winning record (Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, Cowboys, and Vikings)

Of the 7 teams forecast to have winning records and predicted to have easier than average schedules, all 7 had winning records (49ers, Bengals, Lions, Jaguars, Saints, Browns, and Steelers)

Of the 7 teams forecast to finish at or below .500 and predicted to have harder than average schedules, all 7 had losing records and 6 went under their win total (Vikings, Broncos, Giants, Patriots, Commanders, and Cardinals)

Are strength of schedule projections accurate? 

Short answer: YES

Is strength of schedule important?

Of the 15 teams that actually had the easiest 2023 schedules, 10 went to the playoffs (Cowboys, Packers, Texans, Bills, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Eagles, Lions, 49ers, and Chiefs) with 9-of-15 going over their win total

Of the 17 teams that actually had the hardest 2023 schedules, only 4 went to the playoffs (Steelers, Browns, Ravens, and Rams) with 4-of-17 going over their win total

Trying to overachieve against a brutal schedule rarely happens (4 out of 17 in 2023).

Likewise, winning against an easy schedule and overachieving compared to expectations happens often (9 out of 15 in 2023).