New York Jets Mafia Game Thread

[ZachEY]

I'm colorblind (seriously) so I have to quote this to see what colors you assigned to players. Is this arbitrary or did you have something in mind?

Green is good.

Red are most dangerous.

Orange is in between. (would have gone yellow, but doesn't show up)

[Doggin94it]

1. CTM - I believe strongly that he is innocent.

3. Doggin94it - Decent probability of Scum. Decent Probability of SK.

8. WoodyPaige - High probability of SK. Low probability of scum.

9. SMC - Doubt he is scum. Possible SK, believing it less and less. I think he'd have targetted the Axis.

12. Jets Things - Possible Scum. Unlikely SK.

13. Norway'sWaddlingMarmaloof - Possible Scum. Unlikely SK.

Interested in your rationale for all of these. Particularly unsure why you'd even think I'd be a serial. For what it's worth, your take on me is pretty much my take on you, except I'd downgrade both from "decent probability" to "possible".

[Jets Things]

Green is good.

Red are most dangerous.

Orange is in between. (would have gone yellow, but doesn't show up)

Theeeeeenks!!

[Dan.]

Good game, everyone! See, Slats, now you won't have to vote for me in the signup thread next game, haha. Good luck to my fellow townies.

[Doggin94it]

BTW, at this point we REALLY don't want to kill the SK. He counts as a townie for purposes of holding off a mafia win, and with endgame this close, can't shoot one of us without cutting his own throat. Plus, like I said, if we lynch innocents today and tomorrow (I'd like to avoid that, but if), the SK gives us a slight (50%) chance of extending the game.

Of course, if we lynch mafia today, all bets are off. But we should be mafia hunting, not SK hunting, IMO.

[SMC]

1) Whether there's a Vig or a SK, if we lynch an innocent and there are 2 kills tonight, we are at endgame tomorrow. Either way, it's 7 players, 3 mafia. Lynch an innocent (or even the SK), and the game is over. Whether it's a serial killer or a vig, they NEED to stop shooting.

2) Sharrow was blatantly innocent. He was posting helpful analysis. I noticed it, CTM noticed it, I think a few others mentioned he seemed innocent to them as well. More, you don't kill inactives if you're a townie, you pressure them. If a Vig killed Sharrow last night, then (no offense) it was an incredibly stupid play. I don't like to assume people are stupid, especially not the folks still in this game. We have a serial.

1) I hear you. I know it will be endgame with tommorrow's vote unless we get a mafia player. I also wholeheartedly agree that the Vig/SK needs to stop killing.

That's why I suggested earlier that the team take over the choice, if possible.

2) I don't know if he was blatantly innocent. CTM only asserted he was innocent after Sharrow unvoted for Pac. Either way, it was a blind shot if it was by the Vig and a poor choice.

But like I said, I do not strongly dissagree with you on the the Vig/SK point.

The bottom line is that the Vig/SK needs to stop killing. If the SK is out there, you (SK) have to understand that you will lose the game if you keep killing. Your best chance at winning is for the team to cut mafia.

[ZachEY]

Interested in your rationale for all of these. Particularly unsure why you'd even think I'd be a serial. For what it's worth, your take on me is pretty much my take on you, except I'd downgrade both from "decent probability" to "possible".

Those pretty much are my takes on all of them. They're not that complex, as like I said, until today, I have not been able to keep up, and only summarize.

I'm off SMC as ROBOCOP. JVOR then Sharrow just doesn't make any sense coming from him. I truly believe he wants blood from You, me, or CTM, and wants it as soon as possible.

I very much doubt Pac is SK. But, he's orange because he still could be scum.

Norway... Orange because if you're innocent, then there's a good chance you've got him pegged. However, too much else at work, and I'm not sure I'm seeing the scumminess. Could you possible give me a post number where you summarized it for me, and then I will look at your posts from last night again? I looked, but couldn't find it.

CTM is clean as far as I'm concerned.

Remember how I said I don't like to go after inactives till later. Well, it's later. And it's not because they're inactive, but because they're who's left when I start creating my who could be who charts.

My thoughts are that we're going to hit in the group of You, JT, and WoodyPaige.

Not sure who I'll target today, but that is where I'm going.

[Doggin94it]

The case on norway, for EY and Norway. I'll freely admit its not a strong case, but I think its the strongest one going:

1: pattern of day 1 unvotes - scum pushing innocent train then looking to leap off prior to death? Doesn't read that way on vic, but could on JB, and reasons for voting/unvoting were sketchy to begin with.

2: Monstrous number of spam posts day 1. Very good tactic for mafia, since it became clear last game that post-counting (without regard to post-content) would be used to select potential lynch/pressure targets. Allows player to post often, while saying little that could be analyzed.

3: Repeated "I'm catching up and will post soon" comments, followed up by lack of posting.

4. Residual concern that Vic could be mafia and 'real cop' is following CTM's bad advice. Don't really believe it, but it remains a possibility, and if true the Vic unvote becomes scummy

You can now add to it the vote on Sharrow (who I honestly believe was the most blatantly innocent player in the game), the "lets lynch AVM, even if we think he's innocent, rather than pressuring Norway, because Norway might not show" attitude by CTM (rather than simply making the attempt then switching to AVM when there was literally no other choice), and the overaggressiveness in defense shown by Norway.

[CTM]

My thoughts are that we're going to hit in the group of You, JT, and WoodyPaige.

This is where I'd like to look as well..

I want to hear from Vic first in case he's cleared one of them (maybe doggin?)

[ZachEY]

This is where I'd like to look as well..

I want to hear from Vic first in case he's cleared one of them (maybe doggin?)

Yes. I actually believe it is crutial to hear if one of these three are innocent.

[SMC]

This is where I'd like to look as well..

I want to hear from Vic first in case he's cleared one of them (maybe doggin?)

Yes. I actually believe it is crutial to hear if one of these three are innocent.

What about Pac? Shouldn't he have some info for us?

[CTM]

You can now add to it the vote on Sharrow (who I honestly believe was the most blatantly innocent player in the game), the "lets lynch AVM, even if we think he's innocent, rather than pressuring Norway, because Norway might not show" attitude by CTM (rather than simply making the attempt then switching to AVM when there was literally no other choice), and the overaggressiveness in defense shown by Norway.

Doggin, norway had said he might not be back. Even when he did come back it was late in the evening and there wouldn't have been enough time to organize a lynch assuming he only claimed "roleless townies" I said several times that I'd switch if the moons aligned and that if people were switching they had better commit to come back prior to 9am and vote AVM..

Further, I know what you are doing hear in terms of tieing me to Norway and it reeks of a gambit.. just saying..

[CTM]

What about Pac? Shouldn't he have some info for us?

He said earlier he didn't find anything, which means he found an unrolled player...

I don't think Pac can see alignment based on what he described..

I 100% believe he is a role finder though, I just don't know what side he plays for..

And this is the thing that bothers me about the SK not shooting him. (rolefinder should be able to see SK). Either it's a vig, a seasoned serial killer, or a serial killer that doesn't know what he's doing By not shooting pac last night, our potential serial killer risked being exposed by the only player that could do it..

[ZachEY]

You can now add to it the vote on Sharrow (who I honestly believe was the most blatantly innocent player in the game), the "lets lynch AVM, even if we think he's innocent, rather than pressuring Norway, because Norway might not show" attitude by CTM (rather than simply making the attempt then switching to AVM when there was literally no other choice), and the overaggressiveness in defense shown by Norway.

Thanks. Looking into it.

[ZachEY]

He said earlier he didn't find anything, which means he found an unrolled player...

I don't think Pac can see alignment based on what he described..

I 100% believe he is a role finder though, I just don't know what side he plays for..

And this is the thing that bothers me about the SK not shooting him. (rolefinder should be able to see SK). Either it's a vig, a seasoned serial killer, or a serial killer that doesn't know what he's doing By not shooting pac last night, our potential serial killer risked being exposed by the only player that could do it..

I assume a SK would come back guilty, no? So, there would be two players that could expose him.

Also, there was a chance Pac could have been protected, so the guarenteed kill has some value, I think.

[ZachEY]

What about Pac? Shouldn't he have some info for us?

What CTM said. If Pac can share some more enlightenment, that'd be great. But right now, I think we need a confirmation from Vic, especially if it's Doggin, JT, WP.

[CTM]

I assume a SK would come back guilty, no? So, there would be two players that could expose him.

Also, there was a chance Pac could have been protected, so the guarenteed kill has some value, I think.

I dunno, usually I have the serial killer come back innocent on the cop, and have and FBI agent or similiar who can find him

[ZachEY]

@Bleedin'

If the investigator were to land on SK (assuming there was a SK). Would he come back innocent or guilty?

[Doggin94it]

Doggin, norway had said he might not be back. Even when he did come back it was late in the evening and there wouldn't have been enough time to organize a lynch assuming he only claimed "roleless townies" I said several times that I'd switch if the moons aligned and that if people were switching they had better commit to come back prior to 9am and vote AVM..

Ree-hee-heely? Here are your posts:

I kind of believe him to, but worse case scenario is his roleless and best case SK/Scum...

Even if we could get Norway to 7 tonight, I don't think we should lynch him without him showing up as he could be doctor or another power role. The chances of getting us to 7 and Norway showing up are miniscule. And even if he does, all he'd have to do is claim a role and we'd be stuck with Random lynch..

Unfortunately, right now lynching AVM or random is our only realistic choice..

We have a 9:00am deadline.

I don't think it's practical to get 3 more Norway votes, wait for him to show up, have him not claim a power role, and then have 2 more voters hammer him, in the next 3 or so hours.. just don't see it. Anyone who does switch over should at least commit to logging on before 9:00am tomorrow and voting AVM, who we atleast know doesn't have a power role..

And if people do vote Norway and don't get that lynch or switch back, it's almost a guaranteed random lynch which is an extremely scummy thing to be playing for...

I added Pac, JT, and SMC after this was posted, but I don't see another update.

Do we want to go over any of this again, or does AVM really have to be the only option. I admit I don't like his posting requirement thing, either. That's nearly enough to get me to jump on board. But I don't like Pac's reveal much better. Sounds like the sort of high quality lie that contains a lot of truth, but not quite all of it.

I just don't think there's time..

AVM vote norway..

If the moons align, I will move over to norway ...

Pretty much every post drove home "lets not even try, its too risky to even try, lets just lynch AVM even though we think he's innocent to avoid a random lynch"

You didn't "repeatedly" suggest that you'd switch - you said it once, after AVM was back to 6 votes and the move to Norway had essentially died based on your repeated encouragement, and in fact after the final vote had already been placed on AVM (note - the final vote and your post above both came in at 8:40pm, so unless you and slats are teammates, there's no way you could have known about the final vote being placed at that time).

Further, I know what you are doing hear in terms of tieing me to Norway and it reeks of a gambit.. just saying..

I'm hopeful Vic investigated me, 'cause I'm innocent. But if you think tying Norway to you reeks of a gambit, well, then you should lynch Norway (because it's a gambit that would only work if the two of us were mafia).

[WoodyPaige]

1. CTM - I believe strongly that he is innocent.

2. EY - why analyze myself?

3. Doggin94it - Decent probability of Scum. Decent Probability of SK.

4. slats - I believe in Vic, so I believe slats is innocent. GFather is possibility, but unlikely.

8. WoodyPaige - High probability of SK. Low probability of scum.

9. SMC - Doubt he is scum. Possible SK, believing it less and less. I think he'd have targetted the Axis.

11. Vicious89x - Believe he is the cop.

12. Jets Things - Possible Scum. Unlikely SK.

13. Norway'sWaddlingMarmaloof - Possible Scum. Unlikely SK.

16. Pac2566 - Scout. Could this still be a scum term.

What makes you think I'm the Sk? Still haven't seen a reason.

[ZachEY]

I'm hopeful Vic investigated me, 'cause I'm innocent.

I hope so too.

[ZachEY]

What makes you think I'm the Sk? Still haven't seen a reason.

That I'm 90% certain that the SK is one of my 3 red players.

I'm also confident there's at least one scum in that mix.

Right now, it's about the #s.

[WoodyPaige]

That I'm 90% certain that the SK is one of my 3 red players.

I'm also confident there's at least one scum in that mix.

Right now, it's about the #s.

You want to throw a "Trust me" in there two cause thats about all you got.

[ZachEY]

You want to throw a "Trust me" in there two cause thats about all you got.

Perhaps it is.

Now I have your defensiveness to a simple processes of elimination analysis as well.

[ZachEY]

My list:

AVM

Sharrow

Pac

There's this I guess. One you voted to kill if I'm not mistaken, another was killed the following night.

Hold for more thoughts.

[Norway'sWaddlingMarmaloof]

Because they were among the most innocent looking players - personally, I thought Sharrow might be the doc - and Dan in particular was being very helpful to the town.

Killing Sharrow will also have the subtle effect of throwing suspicion on me. (Watch, it'll come)[/quote]

You're already at the top of my list, for obvious reasons, but why will Sharrow's death make others suspicious of you?

You/Vic/Pac are the leaders in the clubhouse, imo.

[ZachEY]

For Yellin:

My case against AVM is basically all because of JVOR. JVOR was pressuring AVM hard from the beginning of the game and throughout the whole day. It could be distancing as others have said but I'm not so sure. My thought is that AVM could be the serial killer. It's a newbie scum move to nk the player obviously putting the most pressure on you and AVM is a relative newb. I think its a good possibility that AVM is the serial killer and killed JVOR to try to give himself some breathing room. That is of course as long as we have a serial killer and not a Robocop.

Its easy to make the JVOR/AVM connection, and if one were the SK, it would be a great strategy to link these two. Either as fellow scum, or SK. Because, while you *knew* he was not a SK, there was a decent chance you were right. At this point, you'd be an early hero, and have a way to run wild for a bit.

[ZachEY]

You're already at the top of my list, for obvious reasons, but why will Sharrow's death make others suspicious of you?

You/Vic/Pac are the leaders in the clubhouse, imo.

There's no way you're going to gain support for killing Vic right now.

[WoodyPaige]

There's this I guess. One you voted to kill if I'm not mistaken, another was killed the following night.

Hold for more thoughts.

Fair enough but there were also 5 other people on each list. Including Norway and the assumed cop Vic who had both AVM and Sharrow on their lists.

SMC (6) CTM, Doggin, Dan X, Jets Things, Vicious, EY

Pac (5) Dan X, AVM, Woody, Doggin, EY

AVM (6) Pac, Jets Things, Woody, Norway, EY, Vic

Sharrow (6) CTM, Dan X, Pac, Woody, Norway, VIc

Doggin (3) CTM, SMC, Pac

CTM (2) SMC, Jets Things

Norway (2) AVM, Doggin

EY (1) SMC

Jets Things (2) Norway, AVM

[Doggin94it]

Eh...

I'll be here all night. I'll put a vote on AVM before I leave work and go back to bed if it's the only way to move the game forward.

Because I correctly identified him as an innocent before just about anyone else did. Therefore, his death and reveal as innocent should vindicate me. But, of course, I'm devious enough to make the kill in order to vindicate myself, making Sharrow's death another reason to be suspicious of me. Except, now I'm telling you about it, so is that suspicious or not? Let the WIFOM's commence.

The idea that you'd vote for vicious is insane, btw.

[Doggin94it]

Damn multiquote - now I've got to go back and clear that Slats quote

[ZachEY]

Can you do it eventually please? Cause those are the best part of any mafia game.

This is fairly weak. I wholly admit that.

But CTM said he was surprised that the SK didn't take Pac last night.

Perhaps you figured Pac and CTM would take each other out eventually, so you're leaving that one alone.

[CTM]

Ree-hee-heely? Here are your posts:

Pretty much every post drove home "lets not even try, its too risky to even try, lets just lynch AVM even though we think he's innocent to avoid a random lynch"

You didn't "repeatedly" suggest that you'd switch - you said it once, after AVM was back to 6 votes and the move to Norway had essentially died based on your repeated encouragement, and in fact after the final vote had already been placed on AVM (note - the final vote and your post above both came in at 8:40pm, so unless you and slats are teammates, there's no way you could have known about the final vote being placed at that time).

I also said that if you guys are going to pursue this to make sure you come back and vote AVM before 9:00am. I also said I would vote Norway if he came back and claimed roleless

I really have to wonder why you are characterizing yourself as champion of the innocent here. You basically switched your vote and then flittered away not to reemerge until after AVM was dead. Are we to assume that your 1 post on the matter should've been enough to sway 7 people to vote Norway? And that Norway, who earlier indicate he might not be back, was going to show up just in time and throw himself on his sword as scum? NO CHANCE!

At worst, I was throwing water on your attempts to stalement us.

Here's doggin's post at 7pm:

http://www.jetnation.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1246968&postcount=2166

I really do not like this lynch. Unvote. Vote: Norway.

Screw it. There's more than enough of you to lynch AVM without me, and if we're still floating around without any movement towards Norway when I check back before going to bed, I'll shift my vote back to AVM, since I don't want a random lynch. But I think I need to at least try to encourage a move to vote Norway before I lynch a guy I really believe is a townie.

He then doesn't re-appear for almost 2 1/2 hours, just after Slats hammered AVM. ANyone who gives you bonus points for that is being manipulated, plain and simple.

I'm hopeful Vic investigated me, 'cause I'm innocent. But if you think tying Norway to you reeks of a gambit, well, then you should lynch Norway (because it's a gambit that would only work if the two of us were mafia).

That's actually why I'm warming to lynching Norway...

But, it's also possible you have something up your sleeve tomorrow that will end game us if we lynch Norway today and he's innocent...

[CTM]

Because I correctly identified him as an innocent before just about anyone else did. Therefore, his death and reveal as innocent should vindicate me. But, of course, I'm devious enough to make the kill in order to vindicate myself, making Sharrow's death another reason to be suspicious of me. Except, now I'm telling you about it, so is that suspicious or not? Let the WIFOM's commence.

The idea that you'd vote for vicious is insane, btw.

Exactly. Cause you love WIFOM's and the churn they create..

I'm not going to presume to have a read on what you are doing. If you are guilty I know for a fact that you are in the process of tangling us up as best you can. WHich is all the post above indicates to me..

[Doggin94it]

I also said that if you guys are going to pursue this to make sure you come back and vote AVM before 9:00am. I also said I would vote Norway if he came back and claimed roleless

I really have to wonder why you are characterizing yourself as champion of the innocent here. You basically switched your vote and then flittered away not to reemerge until after AVM was dead. Are we to assume that your 1 post on the matter should've been enough to sway 7 people to vote Norway? And that Norway, who earlier indicate he might not be back, was going to show up just in time and throw himself on his sword as scum? NO CHANCE!

At worst, I was throwing water on your attempts to stalement us.

Here's doggin's post at 7pm:

http://www.jetnation.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1246968&postcount=2166

He then doesn't re-appear for almost 2 1/2 hours, just after Slats hammered AVM. ANyone who gives you bonus points for that is being manipulated, plain and simple.

Chan, it was thursday night. You know what I do on thursday nights? I go shabbos shopping, and then I cook (since my wife hates cooking). I said I'd be back to vote AVM before going to bed if absolutely necessary.

And interestingly enough, several people were convinced enough to vote Norway or unvote AVM . . . at least until you "threw water on it"

BTW, what's a "stalement"?

That's actually why I'm warming to lynching Norway...

I'll believe that when I see it.

But, it's also possible you have something up your sleeve tomorrow that will end game us if we lynch Norway today and he's innocent...

Yes. obviously, in addition to adding a second NK'er, our mod - in the interests of balance - gave scum an ability to kill multiple players in the day phase. That suggestion makes even less sense than Robocop, and I'm really, really wondering why EY is so convinced you're innocent.