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Yahoo: Mocking the Draft: Who Will the Jets Choose at No. 9?


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#1 F.Chowds

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 01:42 PM


These are just some of the names that have been tossed around as the New York Jets first round draft pick in the upcoming 2013 NFL draft. More than three months away. Before workouts, the NFL Draft Combine, interviews or anything else closely associated with the draft.


Even before the man who is supposedly making the decision has been hired .


That's why I said in a previous article that it's way too early to mock. There's so much in flux right now that you're essentially picking names out of a hat. Most times, though, those names don't work for a variety of reasons.


So to rebuke all those NFL draft insiders, here's the rub on the so-called front-runners to become the first pick in the 2013 NFL draft for your New York Jets.


LB/DE Jarvis Jones, Georgia

Why he's the pick: If I'm picking for the Jets, Jones would be my odds-on favorite. He's quick, he's powerful, he's a beast at getting to the quarterback. If not for a certain senior linebacker at some little independent school in Indiana, he would've been everyone's choice for every defensive award in college.

The rub: There are still eight teams drafting in front of the Jets, many of whom would love a quick, powerful pass rusher from the SEC. Also: he's got spinal stenosis, a degenerative medical condition that affects the spine. High risk, high reward.


QB Tyler Wilson, Arkansas

Why he's the pick: A strong-armed quarterback who's been lauded for his leadership and toughness, Wilson has been a hot name in a not-so-hot quarterback class. Plus, it's the Jets. It's not as if they have any better option on the roster.

The rub: This is a guy who "led" his team to a 4-8 record this past season, including numerous games against quality opponents where he completely disappeared. There's a reason this is a not-so-hot quarterback class; it flat-out doesn't have a true first round talent, which means every quarterback drafted in the first round this year is a reach.


LB/DE Dion Jordan, Oregon

Why he's the pick: He is this year's "measureables" guy; height, frame, reach, vertical, etc. He can play in both a 4-3 (at end) or 3-4 (at linebacker).

The rub: He just had surgery to repair a torn labrum, which means he probably won't work out while rehabbing. And while his 2012 stats were a little gaudy (five sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss), you can make a case against the competition he played (hello, Pac-12?).


OG Chance Warmack, Alabama

Why he's the pick: An All-America offensive lineman who just won the national championship helping lead a monster rushing attack over a Top 10 defense? Plus the Jets' two starting guards are free agents? This one might seem like a no-brainer.

The rub: Move past the measureables for a second, and some scouts question his ability to block more athletic (read: NFL-caliber) defensive linemen. His technique is also sometimes sloppy. The biggest question: Is he worthy of the #9 pick when there are other offensive linemen in this draft class that grade out almost as favorably?


So: Which one of these front-runners would be your choice? Or who else would you consider?

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#2 CrazyCarl40

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 02:07 PM

Jordan if Moore is gone. Warmack if all three are gone.
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#3 SenorGato

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 02:14 PM

There's a lack of Mingo on that list.
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#4 SenorGato

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 02:17 PM

The Warmack hype is snowballing, but Jonathan Cooper could be the Zeitler to Warmack's DeCastro. Cooper could be the better pass protector between the two, though probably not by much if at all.
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#5 bitonti

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 02:37 PM

There's a lack of Mingo on that list.


russ lande has mingo ranked 60 in his top 200.
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#6 SenorGato

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 02:50 PM

Ooph on Russ Lande's part.
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#7 bitonti

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 02:57 PM

Ooph on Russ Lande's part.


allen dumonjic on rotoworld does a real good job of breaking down why certain evaluators don't like Mingo

http://www.rotoworld...ll-bark-no-bite
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#8 bitonti

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 03:06 PM

another possibility is Alex Ogletree. Many sources have him ranked higher than Te'o
WR Keenan Allen california could be a stud.


whatever happens, i can see it already that Jets fans see the team picking at 9, and expect Andrew Luck.

Edited by bitonti, 16 January 2013 - 03:06 PM.

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#9 SenorGato

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 03:13 PM

allen dumonjic on rotoworld does a real good job of breaking down why certain evaluators don't like Mingo

http://www.rotoworld...ll-bark-no-bite


Good read, still not enough to have him out of the picture at 9 right now.
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#10 bitonti

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 03:30 PM

Good read, still not enough to have him out of the picture at 9 right now.


if Moore and Jones are off the board by 9, they are taking the 3rd or 4th best pass rusher at that point. m,ight be smarter to take the best WR or ILB (or OG).

Most sites have Dion Jordan higher than Mingo, fwiw.

Edited by bitonti, 16 January 2013 - 03:30 PM.

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#11 SenorGato

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 03:45 PM

if Moore and Jones are off the board by 9, they are taking the 3rd or 4th best pass rusher at that point. m,ight be smarter to take the best WR or ILB (or OG).

Most sites have Dion Jordan higher than Mingo, fwiw.


Jones' back might not even make him a candidate for 9. If the 3rd best DE/OLB prospect is better than the 1st best ILB, OG, or WR prospect, then I take that guy.

Most sites have only ranked seniors so far. Both Mingo and Jordan have the same amount of sacks in their college careers, and the same peak season (7 sacks).

Edited by SenorGato, 16 January 2013 - 03:46 PM.

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#12 CrazyCarl40

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 03:56 PM

For no reason ever should they take a QB at nine in this draft.
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#13 bitonti

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 04:15 PM

For no reason ever should they take a QB at nine in this draft.


i agree. Any QB in rd 1 is a reach this year.
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#14 derp

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 08:29 PM

Jones' back might not even make him a candidate for 9. If the 3rd best DE/OLB prospect is better than the 1st best ILB, OG, or WR prospect, then I take that guy.

Most sites have only ranked seniors so far. Both Mingo and Jordan have the same amount of sacks in their college careers, and the same peak season (7 sacks).


Jordan also has a lot more versatility than Mingo and has been playing defense about as long as Mingo has been in school.
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#15 LAD_Brooklyn

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 02:03 AM

If Moore, Jones, Werner are off we're better off trading down to those targeting Miller, Te'o, Hankins, Richardson and Banks would be a much smarter idea with us picking up a 2nd round pick in the process. Warmack should be there at the 16-20 area with the Cowboys and Rams potentially picking him.
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#16 JohnnyHector

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 01:47 PM

if Moore and Jones are off the board by 9, they are taking the 3rd or 4th best pass rusher at that point. m,ight be smarter to take the best WR or ILB (or OG).


Yes, because clearly the #1 OG or ILB is a better value at #9 than taking the 3rd or 4th pass rusher off the board.

With D-Rob and Sullivan off the board already, the Vikings probably should'nt have settled for Kevin Williams when they could've taken the #1 FB or placekicker instead.
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#17 bitonti

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 02:03 PM

With D-Rob and Sullivan off the board already, the Vikings probably should'nt have settled for Kevin Williams when they could've taken the #1 FB or placekicker instead.


if memory serves, the vikings loved Kevin William so much they let the 7 pick lapse.

that's an idea. Let the 9 pick lapse and take Chance Warmack at 11.

The crop gets diluted... from that draft the Jimmy Kennedy, William Joseph picks etc. What if 3 pass rushers are off the board by 9?

Im just saying that every mock in the world has the Jets taking a DE/OLB and it might not happen.
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#18 JohnnyHector

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 04:30 PM

if memory serves, the vikings loved Kevin William so much they let the 7 pick lapse.


...or they did their homework, knew that there was a near-zero chance the next two teams would take Williams (perhaps neither had him in for a visit), and saved themselves some cash in a time when draft slot made a big difference. They could've been leapfrogged with a trade, but I think the confusion during that time wouldn't have allowed for it.

The crop gets diluted... from that draft the Jimmy Kennedy, William Joseph picks etc. What if 3 pass rushers are off the board by 9?


By that rationale, the Dolphins should've passed on Daniel Constantine Marino, Jr., considering that he was the 6th QB off the board in the 1st Rd that year. Maybe they should've taken Dave Lutz instead.

Im just saying that every mock in the world has the Jets taking a DE/OLB and it might not happen.


Oh, mock drafts aren't an a fool-proof predictor for what will actually happen in the draft? I don't need to look any further than your score from the Huddle Report last year to know that.
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#19 bitonti

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 07:01 PM

Oh, mock drafts aren't an a fool-proof predictor for what will actually happen in the draft? I don't need to look any further than your score from the Huddle Report last year to know that.


ouch.

fwiw no one is comparing the 2013 DE crop to the 2003 DT crop or the 1983 QB crop.

Edited by bitonti, 17 January 2013 - 07:04 PM.

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#20 HessStation

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 07:12 PM

out of those guys, Warmack. Mingo and Moore are the two I like and Jordan and Jones I'm much more luke warm on. Tyler Wilson is now a top 10 pick? LOL every ****ing year, it's like clockwork. with QBs.

Edited by HessStation, 17 January 2013 - 07:13 PM.

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#21 JohnnyHector

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 09:43 AM

fwiw no one is comparing the 2013 DE crop to the 2003 DT crop or the 1983 QB crop.


Considering that this is a very weak draft for offensive skill position players, the crop of 2013 DE's need not be on par with the '83 QB's for them to be of high value relative to the rest of the class.
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#22 bitonti

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 10:52 AM

Considering that this is a very weak draft for offensive skill position players, the crop of 2013 DE's need not be on par with the '83 QB's for them to be of high value relative to the rest of the class.



If we are talking about positions, the OL crop is real good. Besides Joekel there's Warmack (probably the best guard to come out for a decade) Fluker (stud RT) and at least 3 possible rd 1 LT (Eric Fisher, Oday Abushi and Lane Johnson). Not to mention Barrett Jones an all american at left tackle once upon a time.

as for the skills there are some real good wide outs. Keenan Allen, Cord. Patterson for example.

meanwhile The DE crop has about 2 or 3 legit studs (Moore, Werner and maybe Mongomery), Jarvis Jones who's back issue might drop him to 9 (or beyond) and then a bunch of tweeners and interesting names after the top 20 (Dion Jordan, Mingo, Lemonier, Brandon Jenkins, William Gholston etc).

Qb, RB and CB are real weak at the top end.

going by your best position theory the Jets should draft OL.

Edited by bitonti, 18 January 2013 - 10:55 AM.

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#23 SenorGato

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 11:40 AM

DJ Ducasse. I think he might have a shot as a G, but he needs alot of work to be an NFL OT.

I also do not consider two of those three legit stud DEs to be legit, though I like Montgomery (more than Werner). I think you got on Mingo for not doing much against A&M's tackle combo...Werner did absolutely nothing playing a team with a legit QB prospect in NC State.
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#24 bitonti

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 11:57 AM

Gato, Fluker is massive at 6'6" 330 might actually be too big for guard. More like a Cordy Glenn (Rodger safford, max starks) kind of left tackle that everyone said couldn't play left tackle. Big and huge but not really relevant to the Jets.

Just to be clear Im trying to rank these DE to figure out who the Jets could pick. Let's assume Moore and Jones are gone, because those would be easy picks and the Jets don't get easy picks.

That leaves Werner who might be overrated as a top 10 pick... Montgomery who I'd have no problem with. Mingo who i think is a little raw (the difference between these two players is size and production, both of which Mont has more of than Ming).

and then there are also a couple of physical freaks like Anzah and Dion Jordan who are basically a fast 40 away from top 20. If there are no QB's in the top 20 (as several sites and Kiper have predicted), that means a run on edge rushers. Ezekial Anzah or Dion Jordan at 9?

Edited by bitonti, 18 January 2013 - 11:57 AM.

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#25 SenorGato

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 12:20 PM

Gato, Fluker is massive at 6'6" 330 might actually be too big for guard. More like a Cordy Glenn (Rodger safford, max starks) kind of left tackle that everyone said couldn't play left tackle. Big and huge but not really relevant to the Jets.


The thing is that Glenn and Saffold were very, very good players in college. Glenn played LT his last year at Georgia IIRC. Fluker's been up and down. He does have the tools THO.

Just to be clear Im trying to rank these DE to figure out who the Jets could pick. Let's assume Moore and Jones are gone, because those would be easy picks and the Jets don't get easy picks.


Montgomery and Werner would not be the next in line. Probably, most likely really, Mingo would be there.

That leaves Werner who might be overrated as a top 10 pick... Montgomery who I'd have no problem with. Mingo who i think is a little raw (the difference between these two players is size and production, both of which Mont has more of than Ming).


Might on Werner is an understatement.

Mingo has the speed advantage on Montgomery and has an even better frame, but sure I can play along. Montgomery is a solid looking prospect.

and then there are also a couple of physical freaks like Anzah and Dion Jordan who are basically a fast 40 away from top 20. If there are no QB's in the top 20 (as several sites and Kiper have predicted), that means a run on edge rushers. Ezekial Anzah or Dion Jordan at 9?


I would prefer either of these to Werner.
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