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Sanchez Vs. Pennington/Favre


villain_the_foe

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Its difficult to paint Sanchez as having a better year than Favre in 2008, even after the breakdown, or Chad in 2002.

I track the team QB performance for all the teams, though I tailed off doing it a few weeks ago due to time constraints, based on strength of schedule. I do have the Jets updated numbers though. a negative number means percent below the average for their particular schedule and a positive one means performance above the average for the defenses faced. Here is the Jets passing offense numbers:

Attempts: -3.27%

Completions: -9.65%

Yds: -13.07%

TDs: 6.8%

Ints:-23.7%

20+ passes: -26.22%

40+ passes: -86.96%

sacks: -2.79%

Comp. %: -6.59%

YPA: -10.13%

YPC: -3.79%

TDA: 10.39%

INTA: -21.12%

20+A:-23.72%

40+A:-86.52%

SckA: 0.50%

So the Jets offense has performed worse than average in almost every category except touchdowns and surprisingly interceptions. Marks picks have been backbreakers but he has actually been pretty good in that regard.

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You're going to throw out TD/INT ratio as a measure of a QB? Seriously? OK, please comment on his QBR or suggest a stat that you prefer.

oy, so grading a QB only on 32 of his passes and ignoring the other 410 i sound to you?

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You're going to throw out TD/INT ratio as a measure of a QB? Seriously? OK, please comment on his QBR or suggest a stat that you prefer.

QBR is a stat that tries to quantify "clutchness" and as a result, punishes a QB for putting a game out of reach early and instead rewards substandard early play and late-game "heroics". If you want to try to measure contribution, DVOA is a more useful tool.

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Assuming you meant the median (as the mode offers no value for the purpose of this discussion), it's not much of a departure from the mean. You're neglecting that for every Manning, Brees, Brady, and Rodgers, there's a Jamarcus Russell, Derek Anderson, and Blaine Gabbert. It's a little more skewed this year than the last two, with 18 teams coming in below the average, but that doesn't excuse being ranked 25th in the league.

I see a guy that puts the ball on the turf more than most of his contemporaries, regardless of the reason. I think total fumbles are more meaningful in looking for a trend, as the recovery of said fumble is out of the QB's control more often than not. He's started over 50 NFL games and his inability to identify from where the pressure is coming is still alarmingly bad at times.

It's not something I generally pay a whole lot of attention to, as it represents such a small subset of his overall pass attempts. Does he have more than 2 TD's of over 20 yards? Half of his TD passes have come in goal-to-go situations. For all of the bellyaching about Schottenheimer holding back Sanchez, he's the one dialing up the short passes in the red zone that have buoyed Sanchez's TD total.

Im going to remember this comment. I have a feeling that I will be referring to this before the end of this season. Maybe not to you, but im so glad you said this.

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Im going to remember this comment. I have a feeling that I will be referring to this before the end of this season. Maybe not to you, but im so glad you said this.

I don't even know what you're getting at, as I don't see how this supports your stance. You think the only thing holding him back from being an elite QB is Schottenheimer, yet his system has allowed Sanchez to throw a bunch of short TD's that you're getting aroused over.

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I think you actually made a more compelling argument for someone disproving the law of conservation of energy by posting YouTube videos.

ooooooh, im offended.

Trust me, I couldnt prove anything to a mind tainted by the public school system nor would I try to again. The last time I tried I was told that paper is money and Bonds are not in a bubble but a good bet because interest rates are low. WTF?! lol. Thats like me trying to convince someone that a fumble isnt an INT, but a touchdown is a touchdown. It simply wont compute.

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I don't even know what you're getting at, as I don't see how this supports your stance. You think the only thing holding him back from being an elite QB is Schottenheimer, yet his system has allowed Sanchez to throw a bunch of short TD's that you're getting aroused over.

You made a very valid point when it comes to schotty though. And yes, im getting aroused over the fact that Sanchez is able to do this well in a bullsh*t offense like this. Imagine if he had a good OC what he could do?

For some reason you say that you dont know what im getting at, yet you seem to know what im getting at. This is a start. Now dont regress and start calling touchdowns field goals.

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You made a very valid point when it comes to schotty though. And yes, im getting aroused over the fact that Sanchez is able to do this well in a bullsh*t offense like this. [\b]Imagine if he had a good OC what he could do?

What does this even mean? I mean besides "good = Sanchez also now Tom Moore" and "bad = Schottenheimer." This despite that much of what Schottenheimer has done with him and this offense under Sanchez has led to this years strong TD:INT, points on the board (6th), strong playoff performances in years past, and an offense that largely hides his flaws (as eager as he is to show them) so that these good things happen.

Everyone gets that one day there's a legit chance that Sanchez will be a top tier passer. Right now, it's not so much. The team has overcome that time and time again because he's surrounded by many, many guys who are good at their jobs. He's progressing even as the season is going on, but he's got to do it more often and against any/every opponent.

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im content with that coming from a player winning back to back playoff games on the road 2 years in a row in order 4 us to even have this conversation.

A player? In reference to rookie and 2nd year Sanchez? Even throwing in that he's the QB that's complete and utter horse patois is.

No credit on this supposedly malevolent system he's in as designed, planned, and called by one, Brian Schottenhiemer? Or even the running game and OL that carried Sanchez on the field?

Fckin hate football.

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Actually after looking over the Favre stats again Sanchez may be more productive this year than Favre was in 2008. Depends on how much you weigh interceptions (where Favre was ridiculous) vs big plays (where Favre wasnt good but better than Sanchez). Chad in 2006 and 2007 was much more productive than Sanchez is this season.

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Actually after looking over the Favre stats again Sanchez may be more productive this year than Favre was in 2008. Depends on how much you weigh interceptions (where Favre was ridiculous) vs big plays (where Favre wasnt good but better than Sanchez)

It was really a tale of two seasons in 2008.... Favre threw 9 of his 21 picks in the last 5 games, after he had torn his bicep.

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It was really a tale of two seasons in 2008.... Favre threw 9 of his 21 picks in the last 5 games, after he had torn his bicep.

Im still not sure how legit that torn bicep was since the Jets seemed to say they knew nothing of it. Anyway, I had my stats at the midway point of that year and it really wasnt much different. Now I dont weight these for time of year they play, but for the most part it would say Favre was pretty blah, had a run of a few good games, and then regressed into pretty blah again. The actual interceptions over the 2nd half ended up looking much better despite the sheer number. Halfway thru the year he was throwing at a rate about 144% above the average of his opponents. By seasons end that fell to about 72%. The stats that fell off were TDs and big plays. He was at a 17.3 above average on TD passes per attempt (possibly inflated by the Arizona game) and ended up at a 2.23%. To fall that far means he basically he either did nothing over the last half of the year or all the teams he faced early started giving up huge amounts of TDs through the air(and watching the games we know he did nothing). His big 40 yard plays were around average and by seasons end were at a -22%. The only way to fall that far is to never complete long passes, like Sanchez does now. That would lend credence to the fact that he had an arm problem and no longer could get the ball down the field. The following year around the midpoint with Minnesota he was also way negative (though I think that changed by years end) which may also point to a dead arm from injury or overuse. In Green Bay the year before his 40+ plays were 127% above average. It was really the interceptions that completely stood out with the Jets. The bookends he threw none but in our year it was a disaster. Chad did the same thing too. Thats why Im most surprised with Sanchez' performance the last two years with the picks. The vets were a mess here but hes been ok after a rough start.

Comp %: 7.6

20+A: -11.5

40+A: -1.0

YPC: -17.5

YPA: -11.2

TDA: 17.3

INTA: 144

Sck/A: 4.1

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