fyi : 2013 Draft Capital Using Harvard Chart ~ ~ ~

[kelly]

> http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/74658/about-that-old-nfl-draft-pick-value-chart

[Sperm Edwards]

Bro, if you're going to start these threads, copy the text of the article below your link to the article.

[JADEDGREEN]

OK

 

About that old NFL draft-pick value chart

March, 22, 2013

Mar 22

2:45

PM ET

By Mike Sando | ESPN.com

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2013 Draft Capital Using Harvard Chart Rk. Team Points 1 49ers 1,232 2 Dolphins 1,181 3 Vikings 1,138 4 Chiefs 1067 5 Jaguars 1,056 6 Rams 1,032 7 Eagles 1,029 8 Bengals 998 9 Titans 994 10 Lions 966 11 Cardinals 935 12 Buccaneers 926 13 Ravens 917 14 Jets 886 15 Bills 855 16 Texans 853 17 Chargers 843 18 Falcons 837 19 Steelers 828 20 Raiders 818 21 Giants 793 22 Packers 772 23 Browns 747 24 Cowboys 749 25 Panthers 661 26 Seahawks 660 27 Broncos 649 28 Saints 611 29 Bears 608 30 Redskins 573 31 Patriots 531 32 Colts 529

In late 2011, Harvard economics student Kevin Meers produced a chart assigning point values to each pick in the seven-round NFL draft.

Meers' chart sought to improve upon the one that has for two decades set general parameters for pre-draft trades involving picks.

The old chart was the one I used upon request Thursday when taking an "imprecise but fun" look at how much capital each team possessed heading into the 2013 draft.

Those results, reproduced below in the second chart, showed the San Francisco 49ers ranking only 17th in draft-pick points despite holding a league-high 14 selections. The old chart placed premium value on the highest choices, none of which belong to the 49ers this year.

@Tangeuray sized up the totals and asked via Twitter whether I could replace the old chart's values for each selection with the ones Meers produced using different methodology.

This seemed like a fun idea, and Meers was accommodating when I reached out to him. He provided updated pick-by-pick values, allowing for the chart at right. That chart ranks the 49ers first in draft capital by Meers' methods despite holding no pick higher than No. 31 overall. Meers' methods also moved up the Seattle Seahawks from last using the old chart to 26th.

2013 Draft Capital Using Value Chart Rk. Team Points 1 Jaguars 3,631 2 Chiefs 3,580 3 Eagles 2,762 4 Lions 2,615 5 Raiders 2,608 6 Dolphins 2,565 7 Rams 2,542 8 Cardinals 2,434 9 Titans 2,285 10 Bills 2,265 11 Vikings 2,245 12 Jets 2,235 13 Chargers 2,042 14 Buccaneers 2,028 15 Browns 2,018 16 Bengals 1,990 17 49ers 1,968 18 Steelers 1,692 19 Panthers 1,690 20 Cowboys 1,636 21 Giants 1,584 22 Saints 1,394 23 Texans 1,380 24 Bears 1,358 25 Packers 1,322 26 Broncos 1,197 27 Falcons 1,182 28 Ravens 1,173 29 Patriots 1,091 30 Colts 971 31 Redskins 688 32 Seahawks 634

The rankings for the Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams changed by fewer spots.

We assigned points to every pick in the draft even though compensatory ones cannot be traded. Assessing draft capital for acquiring players seemed more relevant than for trading picks. For the curious, San Francisco would rank second without compensatory choices. The Rams would be fifth, the Cardinals ninth and the Seahawks 29th.

Meers used the Career Approximate Value figures from Pro Football Reference to settle upon the historical value for each pick. The CAV figures for drafted players from 1980 through 2005 set the values based on the picks associated with each player.

Meers determined, for example, that the first overall pick had returned nearly five times the NFL career value of the standard pick, which fell toward the bottom of the third round using the current 32-team format.

"This non-arbitrary statistic is a massive improvement over the old draft chart," Meers wrote in 2011. "The old system massively over-values the earliest picks and significantly undervalues mid-to-late round picks."

Seattle was the only team with a higher point total using Meers' chart compared to the old one. Washington lost the fewest points among the other teams. Those changes make sense; the Seahawks and Redskins are the only teams without first-round choices -- the types of picks Meers found the old chart to value too much.

The Seahawks and three other teams, including the 49ers, have four seventh-rounders apiece. Those would be the picks the old chart undervalued the most, according to Meers' findings.

"This study is the tip of the iceberg of analysis that is now possible to do," Meers wrote. "There is a ton of work to be done now that we have an accurate representation the value of every draft pick. ... One can use these data to evaluate any trade involving draft picks, come up with a draft strategy that maximizes total expected Career Approximate Value, and much more."

One can also produce esoteric blog posts on Friday afternoons in March. That is the best part from my perspective.

Note: Several have noted that the current rookie wage scale should influence pick values. That is true for trading picks in particular. In this item, I'm defining draft capital in relation to the players a team might select with the choices.

See also: Chase Stuart's work.

[bitonti]

since this seems like a good place for fancy draft articles, this one came out today... essentially saying theres little difference between what teams get out of pick 9 and pick 22. 

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/money-nfl-draft-140046343--nfl.html

 

And no Im not gonna post the article. There are pictures of excels and what not. 

[Sperm Edwards]

since this seems like a good place for fancy draft articles, this one came out today... essentially saying theres little difference between what teams get out of pick 9 and pick 22. 

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/money-nfl-draft-140046343--nfl.html

 

And no Im not gonna post the article. There are pictures of excels and what not. 

 

Jerk.  You could have taken the 20 minutes to copy and paste the pictures in your post.  

[flgreen]

since this seems like a good place for fancy draft articles, this one came out today... essentially saying theres little difference between what teams get out of pick 9 and pick 22. 

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/money-nfl-draft-140046343--nfl.html

 

And no Im not gonna post the article. There are pictures of excels and what not. 

Wht is this?  Another hold out?

[SenorGato]

There's been a site called DRAFTMETRICS and I was unaware! What a fool!

 

Thought this was interesting:

 

http://www.draftmetrics.com/

 

http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/RETAINING%20STARTERS%20AND%20FREE%20AGENT%20ACTIVITY.pdf

 

Not sure what to make of it but the Jets are way below the average # of retained players and restricted FAs. Not that it needed to be said again, but goes to show why this payroll is temporarily inflated. 

[PFSIKH]

  Sperm has the word penis over his head.   

[TechJet]

OK

 

About that old NFL draft-pick value chart

March, 22, 2013

Mar 22

2:45

PM ET

By Mike Sando | ESPN.com

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• Tweet3
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2013 Draft Capital Using Harvard Chart Rk. Team Points 1 49ers 1,232 2 Dolphins 1,181 3 Vikings 1,138 4 Chiefs 1067 5 Jaguars 1,056 6 Rams 1,032 7 Eagles 1,029 8 Bengals 998 9 Titans 994 10 Lions 966 11 Cardinals 935 12 Buccaneers 926 13 Ravens 917 14 Jets 886 15 Bills 855 16 Texans 853 17 Chargers 843 18 Falcons 837 19 Steelers 828 20 Raiders 818 21 Giants 793 22 Packers 772 23 Browns 747 24 Cowboys 749 25 Panthers 661 26 Seahawks 660 27 Broncos 649 28 Saints 611 29 Bears 608 30 Redskins 573 31 Patriots 531 32 Colts 529

In late 2011, Harvard economics student Kevin Meers produced a chart assigning point values to each pick in the seven-round NFL draft.

Meers' chart sought to improve upon the one that has for two decades set general parameters for pre-draft trades involving picks.

The old chart was the one I used upon request Thursday when taking an "imprecise but fun" look at how much capital each team possessed heading into the 2013 draft.

Those results, reproduced below in the second chart, showed the San Francisco 49ers ranking only 17th in draft-pick points despite holding a league-high 14 selections. The old chart placed premium value on the highest choices, none of which belong to the 49ers this year.

@Tangeuray sized up the totals and asked via Twitter whether I could replace the old chart's values for each selection with the ones Meers produced using different methodology.

This seemed like a fun idea, and Meers was accommodating when I reached out to him. He provided updated pick-by-pick values, allowing for the chart at right. That chart ranks the 49ers first in draft capital by Meers' methods despite holding no pick higher than No. 31 overall. Meers' methods also moved up the Seattle Seahawks from last using the old chart to 26th.

2013 Draft Capital Using Value Chart Rk. Team Points 1 Jaguars 3,631 2 Chiefs 3,580 3 Eagles 2,762 4 Lions 2,615 5 Raiders 2,608 6 Dolphins 2,565 7 Rams 2,542 8 Cardinals 2,434 9 Titans 2,285 10 Bills 2,265 11 Vikings 2,245 12 Jets 2,235 13 Chargers 2,042 14 Buccaneers 2,028 15 Browns 2,018 16 Bengals 1,990 17 49ers 1,968 18 Steelers 1,692 19 Panthers 1,690 20 Cowboys 1,636 21 Giants 1,584 22 Saints 1,394 23 Texans 1,380 24 Bears 1,358 25 Packers 1,322 26 Broncos 1,197 27 Falcons 1,182 28 Ravens 1,173 29 Patriots 1,091 30 Colts 971 31 Redskins 688 32 Seahawks 634

The rankings for the Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams changed by fewer spots.

We assigned points to every pick in the draft even though compensatory ones cannot be traded. Assessing draft capital for acquiring players seemed more relevant than for trading picks. For the curious, San Francisco would rank second without compensatory choices. The Rams would be fifth, the Cardinals ninth and the Seahawks 29th.

Meers used the Career Approximate Value figures from Pro Football Reference to settle upon the historical value for each pick. The CAV figures for drafted players from 1980 through 2005 set the values based on the picks associated with each player.

Meers determined, for example, that the first overall pick had returned nearly five times the NFL career value of the standard pick, which fell toward the bottom of the third round using the current 32-team format.

"This non-arbitrary statistic is a massive improvement over the old draft chart," Meers wrote in 2011. "The old system massively over-values the earliest picks and significantly undervalues mid-to-late round picks."

Seattle was the only team with a higher point total using Meers' chart compared to the old one. Washington lost the fewest points among the other teams. Those changes make sense; the Seahawks and Redskins are the only teams without first-round choices -- the types of picks Meers found the old chart to value too much.

The Seahawks and three other teams, including the 49ers, have four seventh-rounders apiece. Those would be the picks the old chart undervalued the most, according to Meers' findings.

"This study is the tip of the iceberg of analysis that is now possible to do," Meers wrote. "There is a ton of work to be done now that we have an accurate representation the value of every draft pick. ... One can use these data to evaluate any trade involving draft picks, come up with a draft strategy that maximizes total expected Career Approximate Value, and much more."

One can also produce esoteric blog posts on Friday afternoons in March. That is the best part from my perspective.

Note: Several have noted that the current rookie wage scale should influence pick values. That is true for trading picks in particular. In this item, I'm defining draft capital in relation to the players a team might select with the choices.

See also: Chase Stuart's work.

This thread is full of nothing but bullchit!

[sirlancemehlot]

This thread is full of nothing but bullchit!

Thank god for someone with common sense.  Tryinh to quantify people, players, training, programs, the value of measurables versus inatngibles, the value of ranking these players and comparing their rankings to where they should be taken and then trying to quantify the value of one draft slot versus another and the measured value of an ealier pick versus later.....................Another crack at "metrics" that is absolutely and undeniably full of sh*t.  Football does not work that way.  Baseball...metrics are a nice guideline.  Football...wayyy too may variables.  Bottom line is each team must ask..."okay what is this pick worth to me?  What is this player worth?  What am i willing to sacrifice for this player?"  All the charts are worthless in the end.

[pedro55]

Thank god for someone with common sense.  Tryinh to quantify people, players, training, programs, the value of measurables versus inatngibles, the value of ranking these players and comparing their rankings to where they should be taken and then trying to quantify the value of one draft slot versus another and the measured value of an ealier pick versus later.....................Another crack at "metrics" that is absolutely and undeniably full of sh*t.  Football does not work that way.  Baseball...metrics are a nice guideline.  Football...wayyy too may variables.  Bottom line is each team must ask..."okay what is this pick worth to me?  What is this player worth?  What am i willing to sacrifice for this player?"  All the charts are worthless in the end.

 

  It's good to use statistics and metrics, but it's something you use on top of everything else.   Somebody is putting values and numbers on these players.  Teams like the Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks, Broncos, Patriots, Packers, etc  obviously would place different values on different positions and players because those teams already have what they assume is their franchise QB for the next x number of years.    Look at the Broncos. With Elvis gone, maybe they find a replacement, maybe they don't.   

 

 Even in baseball, numbers only go so far.  As much as everybody loves moneyball, the A's never could win a playoff series.

[sirlancemehlot]

  It's good to use statistics and metrics, but it's something you use on top of everything else.   Somebody is putting values and numbers on these players.  Teams like the Ravens, 49ers, Seahawks, Broncos, Patriots, Packers, etc  obviously would place different values on different positions and players because those teams already have what they assume is their franchise QB for the next x number of years.    Look at the Broncos. With Elvis gone, maybe they find a replacement, maybe they don't.   

 

 Even in baseball, numbers only go so far.  As much as everybody loves moneyball, the A's never could win a playoff series.

I agree. In baseball, individual performance is far easier to quantify. One man at bat. Individual base runners. Fielders react to hit balls individually. A pitcher stands alone on the mound. A footballs ayers success or failure is often dependent on the system, other players abilities, strength of opponent, play calling, and dozens of other variables. A wr with a great qb is a better wr. A RB with a great line is a better back. A lb with warren sapp in front of him is a better lb. a defensive player in a Rex system is going to be more successful, etc. the draft is similar in wants vs needs vs BAP ...established player vs project, high upside vs low ceiling, big combine vs bad one. It's not a math problem as much as a crapshoot with video tape evidence and momentum going into draft day

[kelly]

OK

 

About that old NFL draft-pick value chart

March, 22, 2013

Mar 22

2:45

PM ET

By Mike Sando | ESPN.com

• Recommend0
• Tweet3
• Comments0
• Email
• Print

2013 Draft Capital Using Harvard Chart Rk. Team Points 1 49ers 1,232 2 Dolphins 1,181 3 Vikings 1,138 4 Chiefs 1067 5 Jaguars 1,056 6 Rams 1,032 7 Eagles 1,029 8 Bengals 998 9 Titans 994 10 Lions 966 11 Cardinals 935 12 Buccaneers 926 13 Ravens 917 14 Jets 886 15 Bills 855 16 Texans 853 17 Chargers 843 18 Falcons 837 19 Steelers 828 20 Raiders 818 21 Giants 793 22 Packers 772 23 Browns 747 24 Cowboys 749 25 Panthers 661 26 Seahawks 660 27 Broncos 649 28 Saints 611 29 Bears 608 30 Redskins 573 31 Patriots 531 32 Colts 529

In late 2011, Harvard economics student Kevin Meers produced a chart assigning point values to each pick in the seven-round NFL draft.

Meers' chart sought to improve upon the one that has for two decades set general parameters for pre-draft trades involving picks.

The old chart was the one I used upon request Thursday when taking an "imprecise but fun" look at how much capital each team possessed heading into the 2013 draft.

Those results, reproduced below in the second chart, showed the San Francisco 49ers ranking only 17th in draft-pick points despite holding a league-high 14 selections. The old chart placed premium value on the highest choices, none of which belong to the 49ers this year.

@Tangeuray sized up the totals and asked via Twitter whether I could replace the old chart's values for each selection with the ones Meers produced using different methodology.

This seemed like a fun idea, and Meers was accommodating when I reached out to him. He provided updated pick-by-pick values, allowing for the chart at right. That chart ranks the 49ers first in draft capital by Meers' methods despite holding no pick higher than No. 31 overall. Meers' methods also moved up the Seattle Seahawks from last using the old chart to 26th.

2013 Draft Capital Using Value Chart Rk. Team Points 1 Jaguars 3,631 2 Chiefs 3,580 3 Eagles 2,762 4 Lions 2,615 5 Raiders 2,608 6 Dolphins 2,565 7 Rams 2,542 8 Cardinals 2,434 9 Titans 2,285 10 Bills 2,265 11 Vikings 2,245 12 Jets 2,235 13 Chargers 2,042 14 Buccaneers 2,028 15 Browns 2,018 16 Bengals 1,990 17 49ers 1,968 18 Steelers 1,692 19 Panthers 1,690 20 Cowboys 1,636 21 Giants 1,584 22 Saints 1,394 23 Texans 1,380 24 Bears 1,358 25 Packers 1,322 26 Broncos 1,197 27 Falcons 1,182 28 Ravens 1,173 29 Patriots 1,091 30 Colts 971 31 Redskins 688 32 Seahawks 634

The rankings for the Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams changed by fewer spots.

We assigned points to every pick in the draft even though compensatory ones cannot be traded. Assessing draft capital for acquiring players seemed more relevant than for trading picks. For the curious, San Francisco would rank second without compensatory choices. The Rams would be fifth, the Cardinals ninth and the Seahawks 29th.

Meers used the Career Approximate Value figures from Pro Football Reference to settle upon the historical value for each pick. The CAV figures for drafted players from 1980 through 2005 set the values based on the picks associated with each player.

Meers determined, for example, that the first overall pick had returned nearly five times the NFL career value of the standard pick, which fell toward the bottom of the third round using the current 32-team format.

"This non-arbitrary statistic is a massive improvement over the old draft chart," Meers wrote in 2011. "The old system massively over-values the earliest picks and significantly undervalues mid-to-late round picks."

Seattle was the only team with a higher point total using Meers' chart compared to the old one. Washington lost the fewest points among the other teams. Those changes make sense; the Seahawks and Redskins are the only teams without first-round choices -- the types of picks Meers found the old chart to value too much.

The Seahawks and three other teams, including the 49ers, have four seventh-rounders apiece. Those would be the picks the old chart undervalued the most, according to Meers' findings.

"This study is the tip of the iceberg of analysis that is now possible to do," Meers wrote. "There is a ton of work to be done now that we have an accurate representation the value of every draft pick. ... One can use these data to evaluate any trade involving draft picks, come up with a draft strategy that maximizes total expected Career Approximate Value, and much more."

One can also produce esoteric blog posts on Friday afternoons in March. That is the best part from my perspective.

Note: Several have noted that the current rookie wage scale should influence pick values. That is true for trading picks in particular. In this item, I'm defining draft capital in relation to the players a team might select with the choices.

See also: Chase Stuart's work.

 

thank you !