Fielding a Top Ten Defense As It Relates to Winning

[Gastineau Lives]

So, I went and researched the numbers regarding the top ten defenses of each season for the last twenty years thinking that it would help me gain clarity in terms of what to expect from the Jets this year (based on the assumption that they will finish in the top ten and possibly, five in defensive ypg this year). I don't know if I've done that or I'm more confused. Anyway, here they are:

 

OVER A TWENTY YEAR PERIOD - TOP TEN

• Of the 200 top-ten defenses of the last twenty years, 60% of them went to the playoffs
• Of the 80 non-playoff teams, 36 finished .500 or better
• Teams fielding top-ten defenses had a 15% chance of finishing with 6 wins or less

OVER A TWENTY YEAR PERIOD - TOP FIVE

 

• Of the 100 top-five defenses of the last twenty years, 68% of them went to the playoffs
• Of the 32 non-playoff teams, 14 finished .500 or better
• Teams fielding top-five defenses had a 9% chance of finishing with 6 wins or less

OVER THE LAST TEN YEARS - TOP TEN

• Of the 100 top-ten defenses of the last ten years, 57% went to the playoffs
• Of the 43 non-playoff teams, 19 finished .500 or better
• Teams fielding top-ten defenses had a 18% chance of finishing with 6 wins or less

OVER THE LAST TEN YEARS - TOP FIVE

• Of the 50 top-five defenses of the last ten years, thirty five (70%) went to the playoffs
• Of the 15 non-playoff teams, 7 finished .500 or better
• Teams fielding top-five defenses had a 12% chance of finishing with 6 wins or less

Make of this what you will. My gut says the Jets are a 7 win team. At the very least we won't be in the running or a top five draft pick since only 8.5% of teams fielding top ten defenses lose enough games (4 or 5, depending on the year) to fall into the top five picks of the draft.

[JoeKlecko]

Interesting.  With the exception of top 5 Ds, there seems to be a downward trend with defenses.  IMO this shows the growing importance of passing offenses, and the lessening of importance of defenses and rushing offense.  Teams who have a very good/great QB are gonna win more often than not vs very good/great defenses.

[Scott Dierking]

The Jets were a top ten defense last year because teams did not have to explode offensively in order to beat them.

 

They let the Jets offense score points for them or give them field position because of ineptitude.

 

The rankings belie that this was a very ordinary defense last year. I actually think they may be better this year than last, but show worse results (ranking).

[Gastineau Lives]

The Jets were a top ten defense last year because teams did not have to explode offensively in order to beat them.

 

They let the Jets offense score points for them or give them field position because of ineptitude.

 

The rankings belie that this was a very ordinary defense last year. I actually think they may be better this year than last, but show worse results (ranking).

I guess, but if you look at the passing defense, the ranking was accurate. Even if you take into account that teams passed the ball less, they still only completed a sub-Sanchez percentage and YPA against us. The Jets were also within .1 ypc of half the league in terms of rushing defense. I believe these teams tried to score for most of the game, at least.

[Scott Dierking]

I guess, but if you look at the passing defense, the ranking was accurate. Even if you take into account that teams passed the ball less, they still only completed a sub-Sanchez percentage and YPA against us. The Jets were also within .1 ypc of half the league in terms of rushing defense. I believe these teams tried to score for most of the game, at least.

The Jets rush defense was 26th in total rushing yards allowed last year. Research how many teams make the playoffs that finish in the bottom 5 of rushing yards allowed.

 

I would bet not too many

[Gastineau Lives]

The Jets rush defense was 26th in total rushing yards allowed last year. Research how many teams make the playoffs that finish in the bottom 5 of rushing yards allowed.

 

I would bet not too many

It took teams the third most rushing attempts in the league against them to compile that number. Bottom line is that when on the field, the Jets gave up 5.1 yards per play, rushing and passing combined. Tied with Houston and Seattle for 6th best in the league, two pretty good defenses.

[Scott Dierking]

It took teams the third most rushing attempts in the league against them to compile that number. Bottom line is that when on the field, the Jets gave up 5.1 yards per play, rushing and passing combined. Tied with Houston and Seattle for 6th best in the league, two pretty good defenses.

Gee, I wonder why teams ran on the Jets so much:

 

1. They could

2. Many opponents were ahead in the game and were shortening the clock

 

Edit-Pssst: The Jets were 21st in YPRA last year

[Lil Bit Special]

isnt like half of our starters on defense new this year versus last?  why do we automatically assume we're going to be a dominant defense? because of rexy?

[Gastineau Lives]

Gee, I wonder why teams ran on the Jets so much:

 

1. They could

2. Many opponents were ahead in the game and were shortening the clock

 

Edit-Pssst: The Jets were 21st in YPRA last year

Psst. they were .1 away from being middle of the pack like I said earlier. And you still haven't explained how teams only averaged the same yards per play than they did.

 

When did they start to run the clock out, exactly? I'll tell you when. Very late. Or in other words, not nearly as early as you perceive they did.

 

And another little secret between us since we're whispering in each others ears; if you'd like to tell me that their run defense wasn't very good, I might be inclined to agree, but if you say that their defense as a whole was not good, I'd have to say no, you're wrong.

[Gastineau Lives]

isnt like half of our starters on defense new this year versus last?  why do we automatically assume we're going to be a dominant defense? because of rexy?

Yexy. I think Sheldon Richardson will do well, Demario Davis will be better than Bart Scott, the addition of Milliner, going into the season and not having to replace your best player on the fly, etc.

 

But the point of my post wasn't that I assume they will be better, it was more hopeful and was wondering what everyone else thought about the numbers I presented.

[Scott Dierking]

isnt like half of our starters on defense new this year versus last?  why do we automatically assume we're going to be a dominant defense? because of rexy?

Because what else are people going to hang their hat on if they want hope?

[Lil Bit Special]

Because what else are people going to hang their hat on if they want hope?

 

Good point.  Thanks.

[Scott Dierking]

Psst. they were .1 away from being middle of the pack like I said earlier. And you still haven't explained how teams only averaged the same yards per play than they did.

 

When did they start to run the clock out, exactly? I'll tell you when. Very late. Or in other words, not nearly as early as you perceive they did.

 

And another little secret between us since we're whispering in each others ears; if you'd like to tell me that their run defense wasn't very good, I might be inclined to agree, but if you say that their defense as a whole was not good, I'd have to say no, you're wrong.

So, tell me out of all that research you did, how many teams finished in the bottom 7 in the league in rushing yards allowed and made the playoffs? You still haven't answered that one.

 

If you think that that defense last year was top 10 in caliber, You weren't watching. The Jets lost to the Chargers, Bills and Titans in their last 3 games. They were bad all the way around.

[Scott Dierking]

And, to give this topic clarity-the Jets, by statistical measure of yards allowed had a top 10 defense, but they did not sniff the play-offs last year.

[Gastineau Lives]

So, tell me out of all that research you did, how many teams finished in the bottom 7 in the league in rushing yards allowed and made the playoffs? You still haven't answered that one.

 

If you think that that defense last year was top 10 in caliber, You weren't watching. The Jets lost to the Chargers, Bills and Titans in their last 3 games. They were bad all the way around.

LOL You're messing with me, right? Seeing how many times I can go get the game stats. I think I got you now.

 

Yes, they lost to the Titans. Who scored 14 points. Clearly on the D. Forget about the 5 Sanchez turnovers.

 

Yes, they lost to the Chargers. Who had 223 yards of total offense including going 2/12 on third down. Forget the 11 sacks of Greg McElroy.

 

The only one I'll give you is the Bills. They scored a whopping 21 points. 14 in the 4th quarter while they, according to you, were trying to run out the clock since they knew the Jets offense was horrible.

 

You're hysterical.

[Gastineau Lives]

And, to give this topic clarity-the Jets, by statistical measure of yards allowed had a top 10 defense, but they did not sniff the play-offs last year.

Go find the part of my original post where I say that they were making the playoffs. Go ahead, I'll wait here.

 

While I wait, why don't you go and cherry pick the other top defenses scoreboards on the season. All seventeen games. Or for that matter, the teams behind us that we were worse than but were statistically better than.

[Scott Dierking]

LOL You're messing with me, right? Seeing how many times I can go get the game stats. I think I got you now.

 

Yes, they lost to the Titans. Who scored 14 points. Clearly on the D.

 

Yes, they lost to the Chargers. Who had 223 yards of total offense including going 2/12 on third down.

 

The only one I'll give you is the Bills. They scored a whopping 27 points. 14 in the 4th quarter while they, according to you, were trying to run out the clock since they knew the Jets offense was horrible.

 

Greg McElroy and Mark Sanchez had nothing to do with the defense being on the field all the time, right?

As I told you, the Jets were all around bad.

[Scott Dierking]

Go find the part of my original post where I say that they were making the playoffs. Go ahead, I'll wait here.

 

While I wait, why don't you go and cherry pick the other top defenses scoreboards on the season. Or for that matter, the teams behind us that we were worse than.

What's the point of your thread then?

[#27TheDominator]

The Jets were a top ten defense last year because teams did not have to explode offensively in order to beat them.

 

They let the Jets offense score points for them or give them field position because of ineptitude.

 

The rankings belie that this was a very ordinary defense last year. I actually think they may be better this year than last, but show worse results (ranking).

 

Eh.

 

You have a point about the lack of necessity for opponents to score agains the Jets, but the guy is looking at rankings historically over ten and twenty years.  The Jets offense was bad, but there were plenty of bad teams over the past 20 years.  If you are going to claim the Jets O was that historically bad, then how did they manage six wins?  D must have been at least fair.  You have a point about the run D, but I think that was a matter of picking their poison as they try to transition to a faster team.  We'll see how all the new pieces fit in. 

[Scott Dierking]

Eh.

 

You have a point about the lack of necessity for opponents to score agains the Jets, but the guy is looking at rankings historically over ten and twenty years.  The Jets offense was bad, but there were plenty of bad teams over the past 20 years.  If you are going to claim the Jets O was that historically bad, then how did they manage six wins?  D must have been at least fair.  You have a point about the run D, but I think that was a matter of picking their poison as they try to transition to a faster team.  We'll see how all the new pieces fit in. 

My premise is that the jets were not a top 10 defense last year-That is all.

[Gastineau Lives]

What's the point of your thread then?

I didn't have an agenda. Why does every post have to have an agenda?

[Scott Dierking]

I didn't have an agenda. Why does every post have to have an agenda?

I just figured that since you did this so call research on records of teams with top 10 defenses, it should have some reasonable conclusion. It is ok if it doesn't. But it just seems a little baseless.

[Gastineau Lives]

My premise is that the jets were not a top 10 defense last year-That is all.

Well, then I have to ask what criteria you were using and who were your top ten defenses.

[Scott Dierking]

Well, then I have to ask what criteria you were using and who were your top ten defenses.

Why would this even matter now, if we are not drawing any conclusions?

[Gastineau Lives]

Why would this even matter now, if we are not drawing any conclusions?

Because you are the one making the definitive statement, silly.

 

I first decided to look up all these numbers to find a framework for some sort of personal optimism regarding the upcoming season. I like to go into a season feeling optimistic. I'll save the doom and gloom for week five or six or three or twelve.

 

I posted the numbers that I found because I thought people here would find them interesting and maybe take a bit of optimism from them as well or find them interesting on their own outside of a NY Jets context. Pretty simple.

[Greenseed4]

And, to give this topic clarity-the Jets, by statistical measure of yards allowed had a top 10 defense, but they did not sniff the play-offs last year.

 

This was a good point, and actually highlights what GL said in his initial post. 

 

According to the "LAST TEN YEAR" stat, a team only yields a 57% chance of making the playoffs with a top-ten defense.  If I had to draw a conclusion from this non-agenda'ed thread, it's that our team needs to be a top-five defense to have a shot in hell at sniffing the playoffs.  Even then, our offense better do something better than 29th, or there's really no point in even going to the playoffs. 

[Scott Dierking]

Because you are the one making the definitive statement, silly.

 

I first decided to look up all these numbers to find a framework for some sort of personal optimism regarding the upcoming season. I like to go into a season feeling optimistic. I'll save the doom and gloom for week five or six or three or twelve.

 

I posted the numbers that I found because I thought people here would find them interesting and maybe take a bit of optimism from them as well or find them interesting on their own outside of a NY Jets context. Pretty simple.

If you want personal optimism, read a good book. You won't fin it in analyzing defenses in an offensive league

[Scott Dierking]

This was a good point, and actually highlights what GL said in his initial post. 

 

According to the "LAST TEN YEAR" stat, a team only yields a 57% chance of making the playoffs with a top-ten defense.  If I had to draw a conclusion from this non-agenda'ed thread, it's that our team needs to be a top-five defense to have a shot in hell at sniffing the playoffs.  Even then, our offense better do something better than 29th, or there's really no point in even going to the playoffs. 

This team smells a lot like 5-11. Defense be damned.

[Greenseed4]

This team smells a lot like 5-11. Defense be damned.

 

We can get 5 wins in our division alone...because of our defense. 

[Gastineau Lives]

If you want personal optimism, read a good book. You won't fin it in analyzing defenses in an offensive league

Like it or not, defense is the strength of the team. If we were good at offense, I'd have looked at top ten offenses. And no, I don't believe you can expect to win games 13-10. I've been just as annoyed as I imagine you have been about our lack of concentration or inability to build a winning offense.

[#27TheDominator]

This was a good point, and actually highlights what GL said in his initial post. 

 

According to the "LAST TEN YEAR" stat, a team only yields a 57% chance of making the playoffs with a top-ten defense.  If I had to draw a conclusion from this non-agenda'ed thread, it's that our team needs to be a top-five defense to have a shot in hell at sniffing the playoffs.  Even then, our offense better do something better than 29th, or there's really no point in even going to the playoffs. 

 

 

Why do you have to have a top five defense to sniff the playoffs?  If only 57% of the top 10 defenses make the playoffs and twelve teams make the playoffs, then half the teams in the playoffs have a defense out of the top 10.

[Lizard King]

I don't think last two years defense were very good.

[T0mShane]

Last season, the Jets defense played against Ryan Lindley, Jake Locker, Chad Henne, Matt Moore, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Bradford, and Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice). They are all marginal players. Might explain the great passing defense stats.

[Gastineau Lives]

Last season, the Jets defense played against Ryan Lindley, Jake Locker, Chad Henne, Matt Moore, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Bradford, and Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice). They are all marginal players. Might explain the great passing defense stats.

Who do we get this year?

[Gastineau Lives]

Last season, the Jets defense played against Ryan Lindley, Jake Locker, Chad Henne, Matt Moore, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Bradford, and Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice). They are all marginal players. Might explain the great passing defense stats.

The Seahawks got Sam Bradford twice, the Cardinals twice, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Tannehill and Christan Ponder.

 

The 49'ers got all those guys as well.

 

I'm sure the 85 Bears weren't playing Dan Marino every week either.