joewillie78 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Alot of truth in that advertisement. Are you insinuating something? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewillie78 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Hill dropped 1 ball this year for a 1.7%. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/ Very impressive. Then why does he have this reputation for dropping balls, when he dropped 1 all year? Now I understand he disappears in games but for me, thats more on Geno than him, as Geno seems to be simply a Kerly, TE guy and doesnt look WR often enough. If Hill can seperate, thats another story, but when you have 4.3 speed, seperation should not be an issue. Strange, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroadwayJoe12 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Very impressive. Then why does he have this reputation for dropping balls, when he dropped 1 all year? Now I understand he disappears in games but for me, thats more on Geno than him, as Geno seems to be simply a Kerly, TE guy and doesnt look WR often enough. If Hill can seperate, thats another story, but when you have 4.3 speed, seperation should not be an issue. Strange, Because fans, much like yourself, saw that he dropped balls last year, are frustrated with his performance this year and just perpetuate it that he has bad hands like it's gospel truth. It's how anything gets started: once someone gets a bad rap for doing one with, fans are going to run with it until he does something to make up for it. I'm not sure how many times I've written on here that he does not have bad hands, didn't in college and didn't at the combine, but his first year hurt his credibility. If he were to have put up 1000 yards this year, no one would remember his first year. He's going to have to live up to the hype before this goes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Vince had the all-time low, an 8. Funny, they did a study and gave the wonderlick to a bunch of 4th graders and MOST scored higher than these so called "graduates of higher institutions of learning". Fun fact on VY: he was drafted only a month after the saints signed drew Brees as a free agent. At the time the saints were projected to take VY, which they probably would've done if the other team negotiating with brees didn't pull out after signing daunte culpepper: Miami. Jets fans dodged a bullet there. Imagine Brady and brees in same division. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Lee's predraft story is beginning to sound eerily reminiscent to Keenan Allen's. so that means he's not a first rounder... i have no problem with Lee in 2. Tweeted at LSU beat writer Mike Detillier, he said Odell Beckham jr is a first round pick. maybe an SEC guy who runs a 4.3 at 18. keep in mind both first round picks last year were SEC guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt39 Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 so that means he's not a first rounder... i have no problem with Lee in 2. Tweeted at LSU beat writer Mike Detillier, he said Odell Beckham jr is a first round pick. maybe an SEC guy who runs a 4.3 at 18. keep in mind both first round picks last year were SEC guys... If USC offensive players concern you then LSU guys should too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Drop % is such a bogus stat that it's not even worth mentioning: you know who lead the league this year in drops?? Brandon Marshall, Welker, Hartline, Vincent Jackson, Edelman, Josh Gordon, Andre Johnson, AJ Green, Eric Decker, Kendall Wright etc. It's hard to quantify the drops unless you yourself watched every one and noted who threw it, where on the field it was, what type of route etc. Just watch Lee's sophomore season, he was the best WR in all of college football. He had 121 targets (the most of the top 50 receivers) and had a whopping 72.7% catch rate, which was easily one of the highest in the nation. Bill Connelly, the guy over at Football Outsiders who created the widely used Adj. POE measure for running backs and tried to create one for receivers and it basically showed that Marqisee Lee in 2012 was in a totally different stratosphere compared to everyone else. If Lee were 6'3 220 instead of 6' 195, everyone would be all over his nuts. This guy is going to be a perennial 80 catch 1000 yard receiver if he gets on a team with anyone but Tebow. I'm back on my old hype train, dude is gonna be the best receiver in the draft. If he's making plays like some of the guys you mention it goes a long way to overlooking some drops. But you're mentioning guys with drop percentages around 5% or less. Far cry from over 12%. VJ, Gordon, Andre, Green, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroadwayJoe12 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If he's making plays like some of the guys you mention it goes a long way to overlooking some drops. But you're mentioning guys with drop percentages around 5% or less. Far cry from over 12%. VJ, Gordon, Andre, Green, etc. I'm on record saying this year was a terrible year from Lee, but there were extenuating circumstances. The year prior when he was healthy and had a functioning QB, he saw the most targets, had an insane catch rate (over 70%) and ended up with 118 catches, 1721 yards for 14 tds in the PAC-12. His drop percentage was much lower last year and I can say, when healthy, he more than makes up for a few drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewillie78 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Because fans, much like yourself, saw that he dropped balls last year, are frustrated with his performance this year and just perpetuate it that he has bad hands like it's gospel truth. It's how anything gets started: once someone gets a bad rap for doing one with, fans are going to run with it until he does something to make up for it. I'm not sure how many times I've written on here that he does not have bad hands, didn't in college and didn't at the combine, but his first year hurt his credibility. If he were to have put up 1000 yards this year, no one would remember his first year. He's going to have to live up to the hype before this goes away. Actually, if you look back, I have not really had anything negative to say about Hill. In fact I have said very little about Hill. I was just reacting to the drops post about Lee and the infrence that Hill drops balls. I believe that most of his problems stem from the QB play, that he has had to deal with. Sure, he may have issues seperating but a good or competent QB can still fit the ball into smaller windows, and the 2 QBS he has to deal with couldnt hit a picture window. I am not down on Hill like some others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JiFtheOracle Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If USC offensive players concern you then LSU guys should too. For realz. LSU picks might be worse from a WR perspective. Part of the reason Beckham scares me. Seems like all those LSU guys from the same mold were flat out busts in the NFL. Bowe has really been the only decent one...Randle is playing well...but those guys were more of your prototype NFL WR's which IMO Beckham is not and Landry is. Still like both prospects...but not in the 1st. No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewillie78 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Fun fact on VY: he was drafted only a month after the saints signed drew Brees as a free agent. At the time the saints were projected to take VY, which they probably would've done if the other team negotiating with brees didn't pull out after signing daunte culpepper: Miami. Jets fans dodged a bullet there. Imagine Brady and brees in same division. Interesting. I think I believe MIAMI was having questions about Bree's shoulder I think, and thus shyed away. Poor VY, until someone else comes along and scores lower than him on that test, that will be one of his many negative legacies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt39 Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 For realz. LSU picks might be worse from a WR perspective. Part of the reason Beckham scares me. Seems like all those LSU guys from the same mold were flat out busts in the NFL. Bowe has really been the only decent one...Randle is playing well...but those guys were more of your prototype NFL WR's which IMO Beckham is not and Landry is. Still like both prospects...but not in the 1st. No way. LaFell should be good. I dont get it honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If USC offensive players concern you then LSU guys should too. Rueben Randle is the pick the Jets should have made instead of Stephen Hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 For realz. LSU picks might be worse from a WR perspective. Part of the reason Beckham scares me. Seems like all those LSU guys from the same mold were flat out busts in the NFL. Bowe has really been the only decent one...Randle is playing well...but those guys were more of your prototype NFL WR's which IMO Beckham is not and Landry is. Still like both prospects...but not in the 1st. No way. bowe and randle are two more real wr than USC has made in 10+ years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt39 Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Rueben Randle is the pick the Jets should have made instead of Stephen Hill Pretty much anyone would have been better than Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Unless a particular GM is superstitious, taking or not taking a player based on the past history of other players from the same school at the same position, is stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewillie78 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Unless a particular GM is superstitious, taking or not taking a player based on the past history of other players from the same school at the same position, is stupid. Boy, I dont know. Would you really EVER take another QUARTERBACK from USC? The list of awful QB's from that school reads like Alfred Hitchcock horror movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgb Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Interesting. I think I believe MIAMI was having questions about Bree's shoulder I think, and thus shyed away. Poor VY, until someone else comes along and scores lower than him on that test, that will be one of his many negative legacies. ya i think that is right about the shoulder. so drew brees shoulder bad, daunte culpepper's knee good. great medical staff down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroadwayJoe12 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Actually, if you look back, I have not really had anything negative to say about Hill. In fact I have said very little about Hill. I was just reacting to the drops post about Lee and the infrence that Hill drops balls. I believe that most of his problems stem from the QB play, that he has had to deal with. Sure, he may have issues seperating but a good or competent QB can still fit the ball into smaller windows, and the 2 QBS he has to deal with couldnt hit a picture window. I am not down on Hill like some others. I know it may have come across as negative, but that wasn't my intention. I was trying to say that many fans will see be frustrated with the drops he had the first year and then his second straight disappointing year compounds on that frustration and people just perpetuate the idea that he has bad hands. It's pretty common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewillie78 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I know it may have come across as negative, but that wasn't my intention. I was trying to say that many fans will see be frustrated with the drops he had the first year and then his second straight disappointing year compounds on that frustration and people just perpetuate the idea that he has bad hands. It's pretty common. Thanks, and I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Boy, I dont know. Would you really EVER take another QUARTERBACK from USC? The list of awful QB's from that school reads like Alfred Hitchcock horror movie. Good thing Heath Shuler didn't scare the Colts away from drafting Peyton Manning. Elvis Grbac, Brian Greise, Chad Henne, Drew Henson, Todd Collins.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewillie78 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 ya i think that is right about the shoulder. so drew brees shoulder bad, daunte culpepper's knee good. great medical staff down there. That doctor probably is writing medical marijuana prescriptions for the homeless in Colorado, now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewillie78 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Good thing Heath Shuler didn't scare the Colts away from drafting Peyton Manning. Elvis Grbac, Brian Greise, Chad Henne, Drew Henson, Todd Collins.... I agree with your point BUT the USC QB is about the only one where the proof is so overwhelming, that really, would you dare take another USC QB? I certainly wouldnt cross Michigan, or Tennessee off based on that data set, but a USC QB, not a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitonti Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Unless a particular GM is superstitious, taking or not taking a player based on the past history of other players from the same school at the same position, is stupid. it cuts both ways the Jets were comfortable taking Mo Wilk out of Temple, knowing that joe Klecko did it before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewillie78 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Good thing Heath Shuler didn't scare the Colts away from drafting Peyton Manning. Elvis Grbac, Brian Greise, Chad Henne, Drew Henson, Todd Collins.... I'll tell you which school that used to be known as a QB factory is really another to shy away from lately is NOTRE DAME, have you seen their "QBs" lately? Tommy Rees Jimmy Clausen Brady Quinn Wow, those are some bad QB's right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewillie78 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 it cuts both ways the Jets were comfortable taking Mo Wilk out of Temple, knowing that joe Klecko did it before Good point, do you think the JETS reached a bit for RICHARD TODD, knowing that Joewillie came from the same school? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroadwayJoe12 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If USC offensive players concern you then LSU guys should too. For realz. LSU picks might be worse from a WR perspective. Part of the reason Beckham scares me. Seems like all those LSU guys from the same mold were flat out busts in the NFL. Bowe has really been the only decent one...Randle is playing well...but those guys were more of your prototype NFL WR's which IMO Beckham is not and Landry is. Still like both prospects...but not in the 1st. No way. This whole theory of how former players from the same college somehow effect the current player's future success is ridiculous. Unless it's some type of system that naturally inflates one's stats and scouts are only basing potential on numbers, then sure, but that's not the case. If this is the case, then Matt, you should love the Stephen Hill pick because he's following the same footsteps as CJ and Thomas, but you don't. You say that no one ever scouted Hill and he wasn't deserving of a 2nd rounder, which may very well be true. If you should be leery of players based on what their predecessors did, then on the flip side, you should look at guys like Hill in a positive light for following two of the best WRs in the game. However, we don't because you have to individually scout them and not base their production on what others did or did not do. The same goes for athletes from any school; Marqise Lee's route running and physical gifts aren't going to be dropped a peg because Dwayne Jarret and Mike Williams busted out and the same will go for OB Jr. He won't be judged because Josh Reed didn't live up to his name, although he carved out a long career or that Dwayne Bowe is having a solid career. Not for nothing, but LSU's recent WRs have been fairly decent recently in Randall, Lafell and Bowe. However, I don't think their success should effect how we view Beckham or Landry as they have played with entirely different QBs and against difference defenses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 it cuts both ways the Jets were comfortable taking Mo Wilk out of Temple, knowing that joe Klecko did it before It's completely, unintelligently stupid if you think the Temple connection to Klecko had anything to do with the Jets selecting Wilkerson. It's a nice side note, ah shucks, well ain't that cool, moment, and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I agree with your point BUT the USC QB is about the only one where the proof is so overwhelming, that really, would you dare take another USC QB? I certainly wouldnt cross Michigan, or Tennessee off based on that data set, but a USC QB, not a chance. Meh, you're missing my point. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I'll tell you which school that used to be known as a QB factory is really another to shy away from lately is NOTRE DAME, have you seen their "QBs" lately? Tommy Rees Jimmy Clausen Brady Quinn Wow, those are some bad QB's right there. Sigh. Ok then tell me the school to get a QB at. Right now it's UCF, Louisville, Texas A&M and Fresno State. Not exactly NFL QB factories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewillie78 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Meh, you're missing my point. No worries. Maybe, I completely understand that you have to base your evaluation on the INDIVIDUAL alone, apart from the inherent biases that his school may present. I get that, but in some cases (like the USC QB situation), it is very difficult to not look at that sample size, and just go WOW. Anyway, its an interesting discussion, and kind of weird that some schools get "labeled" as a QB factory or lineman factory or Penn State as Linebacker U. Most, if not all is probably just coincidence but its fun to look at it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewillie78 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Sigh. Ok then tell me the school to get a QB at. Right now it's UCF, Louisville, Texas A&M and Fresno State. Not exactly NFL QB factories. Good point. Besides Tannehill from Texas A+M ( and hes decent only), the rest havent produced much. David Carr (bust, Fresno) Brian Brahm (Bust Louisville), UCF, no one that Im aware, BUT at least they dont have Laundry lists of busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Good point. Besides Tannehill from Texas A+M ( and hes decent only), the rest havent produced much. David Carr (bust, Fresno) Brian Brahm (Bust Louisville), UCF, no one that Im aware, BUT at least they dont have Laundry lists of busts. Really, neither do the LSU WRs...which is where this started from. Bowe's a pro bowler Randle looks really good LaFell's a starter on the second best team in the NFC Holliday is dynamic Devery Henderson had a really nice NFL career Michael Clayton had a monster rookie season, hurt his knee, had surgery and was never the same. I don't consider injury a bust. Craig Davis was a bust but he was a HORRIBLE pick who didn't even really start...or produce at LSU. Early Doucet was a 3rd round pick, at least had a couple decent years in Az. Josh Reed had a pretty good career in Buffalo. ...Davis is the only clear cut bust out of this group imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewillie78 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Really, neither do the LSU WRs...which is where this started from. Bowe's a pro bowler Randle looks really good LaFell's a starter on the second best team in the NFC Holliday is dynamic Devery Henderson had a really nice NFL career Michael Clayton had a monster rookie season, hurt his knee, had surgery and was never the same. I don't consider injury a bust. Craig Davis was a bust but he was a HORRIBLE pick who didn't even really start...or produce at LSU. Early Doucet was a 3rd round pick, at least had a couple decent years in Az. Josh Reed had a pretty good career in Buffalo. ...Davis is the only clear cut bust out of this group imo. Oh I agree, I love Beckham this year from LSU, and in fact like him over Lee. I still think though that it would be worth moving up a couple spots to get either Watkins or Evans (my favorite assuming he doesnt run a 4.6) if they can, but if they do stay at 18, Beckham or one of the TE's would be my choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroadwayJoe12 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Really, neither do the LSU WRs...which is where this started from. Bowe's a pro bowler Randle looks really good LaFell's a starter on the second best team in the NFC Holliday is dynamic Devery Henderson had a really nice NFL career Michael Clayton had a monster rookie season, hurt his knee, had surgery and was never the same. I don't consider injury a bust. Craig Davis was a bust but he was a HORRIBLE pick who didn't even really start...or produce at LSU. Early Doucet was a 3rd round pick, at least had a couple decent years in Az. Josh Reed had a pretty good career in Buffalo. ...Davis is the only clear cut bust out of this group imo. Reed probably had the best career of any WR in LSU history and was one of the best WRs in college throughout his career, but he wasn't a first rounder for a reason. As you mentioned, Davis is the only one who really busted out (Russell Shephard has fallen a long way from being a rivals top 10 or whatever he was) and even then, a failed third round pick is hardly what would deter you from drafting any of the other guys. I would argue that even though USC has had past busts, they were 1) completely different styled receivers and 2.) played with a completely different team and coach and played against different competition. If anything, Robert Woods' success should be a boon for the more talented Lee as he at least played similar competition and with the same team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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