"Best Bets of the week"

[Kerry Rhodes]

Moga is the betting man here at JN, but I was hoping to have a thread for members to discuss Betting strategy, Line movement, The Public vs the "Sharps", and our rankings for NFL teams.

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Anyone notice 90% of the public have bet on the Bills this week, Yet the line went down from 6 to 5.5? Could be great news for Jet fans if this trend continues--I personally thought the opposite would happen.

Also Phili has 94% of the public on them, yet there now favored by less as they were favored by 7, and now is 6.5 in one place. Its still 7 at most sites, but realize how much money it must take to move the line off 7 anywhere.

Fishy Lines of the week.

Atlanta -3 in Oakland.

-My initial lean here would have to be Oakland based on the West Coast trip, and Atlanta's poor play on the road.

Cardinals -3 in St louis

-St Louis just hung in there with NE, may get back Steven Jackson, and is back home. A ton of people are on the cardinals right now though......

I am surely going to follow the Jet Line closely this week. I really thought the line would start at 7--No way did I think it start at 6, and MOVE DOWN! Very interesting....

Any thoughts so far on the week?

[CPH]

The Jets could be a very good bet this week...

The Bills rank 24th in punt coverage and 27th in kick coverage. So Washington and Miller should be able to get us some decent starting positions, maybe even take one or two all the way. On the other hand, knowing our coaching staff, they'll probably overrule Westhoff and put Sione Pouha back to return! What do you think?

[CTM]

Moga is the betting man here at JN, but I was hoping to have a thread for members to discuss Betting strategy, Line movement, The Public vs the "Sharps", and our rankings for NFL teams.

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Anyone notice 90% of the public have bet on the Bills this week, Yet the line went down from 6 to 5.5? Could be great news for Jet fans if this trend continues--I personally thought the opposite would happen.

This is exactly what I was hoping for honestly. Assuming DVOA doesn't change that much the Bills should be laying 6 pts to us (as I mentioned last week, they are not as good as their record indicates). We were right to figure that the Public would jump all over the Bills but the big money is coming down on the Jets to cancel that out.

The fact that McGee and Schobel are hurt, which had a big hand in Ginn's & Pennington's big day frankly, and that Favre really has nowhere to go but up suggests that the Jets are a good bet to keep it close..

[Kerry Rhodes]

Early Leans.....

Jax -8--I really dont mind laying points against the Chiefs, Lions, and Bengals of the NFL. I like Jax coming off the loss, and there ground game should be able to keep scoring on Cinci in the second half. Betting against a home dog, and being part of the public is somthing I dont like doing though.

Tampa -9--Two weeks ago I bet on KC at home thinking they always play well there. I think they do poorly coming off a tough loss against the Jets. Also read above.

Balt +1---Balitmore is just such a superior team IMO. People want to believe Cleveland will play like they did last year, but this is not last year. Im searching for reason's not to bet this, bc it almost seems fishy.

Arizona -3--Arizona really has done poorly with traveling this year, and I think there just the superior team during a normal week....Ill be staying updated on S-Jax though.

Chicago -13--Again, Ill be betting against the bottom three teams all season. I dont like that its a division game, but I think thats what stops it from being a trap. I love where the public is betting--Is there any shady line movement here? I have the public on detroit, and the line moving in Chicago's direction.

Miami +3--I like the chances of Miami's defeense slowing down Jay Cutler, and I think Miami will be able to score, and scoree on Denver. I would be searching for any Ronnie Brown, or Ricky Williams prop bets as well.

Indi -5.5--I think this may be like a SuperBowl for Indi especially at home, and its close to a must win. I dont like New England against any team that can score points--I mean, they let St louis stick around with them.

Steelers/Redskins over 37--I always favor the scoring on a national game.

Sucker Bets to consider?

Jets +5.5

Oakland +3

Seattle +7

Shady Line movement?

Seattle

Jets

Chicago

Whats your early leans?

[Kerry Rhodes]

Interesting Stat regarding the Tampa Bay/KC game.

Teams that are favored by 6.5-12 points the week before their bye are 33-6 ATS since 2001. Tampa would qualify this week.

Also, with the Bucs, Gruden is 6-0 ATS and 6-0 SU the week before their bye.

Good stuff. I have a survivor league that I can not use Chicago in and Im down to Jax, or Tampa--Who would you guys prefer of the two?

[CTM]

Interesting Stat regarding the Tampa Bay/KC game.

Teams that are favored by 6.5-12 points the week before their bye are 33-6 ATS since 2001. Tampa would qualify this week.

Also, with the Bucs, Gruden is 6-0 ATS and 6-0 SU the week before their bye.

Good stuff. I have a survivor league that I can not use Chicago in and Im down to Jax, or Tampa--Who would you guys prefer of the two?

Good stuff on TB! I gotta run it down..

I'm also working on a tip of the week so to speak. Is this the thread we're going to use? Maybe we can get Moga to post here as well...

[jason423]

Early Leans.....

Jax -8--I really dont mind laying points against the Chiefs, Lions, and Bengals of the NFL. I like Jax coming off the loss, and there ground game should be able to keep scoring on Cinci in the second half. Betting against a home dog, and being part of the public is somthing I dont like doing though.

Tampa -9--Two weeks ago I bet on KC at home thinking they always play well there. I think they do poorly coming off a tough loss against the Jets. Also read above.

Balt +1---Balitmore is just such a superior team IMO. People want to believe Cleveland will play like they did last year, but this is not last year. Im searching for reason's not to bet this, bc it almost seems fishy.

Arizona -3--Arizona really has done poorly with traveling this year, and I think there just the superior team during a normal week....Ill be staying updated on S-Jax though.

Chicago -13--Again, Ill be betting against the bottom three teams all season. I dont like that its a division game, but I think thats what stops it from being a trap. I love where the public is betting--Is there any shady line movement here? I have the public on detroit, and the line moving in Chicago's direction.

Miami +3--I like the chances of Miami's defeense slowing down Jay Cutler, and I think Miami will be able to score, and scoree on Denver. I would be searching for any Ronnie Brown, or Ricky Williams prop bets as well.

Indi -5.5--I think this may be like a SuperBowl for Indi especially at home, and its close to a must win. I dont like New England against any team that can score points--I mean, they let St louis stick around with them.

Steelers/Redskins over 37--I always favor the scoring on a national game.

Sucker Bets to consider?

Jets +5.5

Oakland +3

Seattle +7

Shady Line movement?

Seattle

Jets

Chicago

Whats your early leans?

Im having an awful year with these games, but a few thoughts...Im with you on both the Jags and the Bucs. Think both teams will win and both will win big. Id stay away from the Ravens game. Neither team has any offense and both play pretty good defense. Ravens are typically junk away from home, the Miami game notwithstanding....Here is what would worry me with the Bears---they seem to lay down at home and let teams hang around. They have played great on the road against a super tough schedule, but something never works at home with them right now. Its a huge number to lay down...

I love Miami. Miami is playing excellent as an underdog and is 3-1 SU in games where they were a dog and they had a great chance to beat the Jets. The last two or three years Denver has been a dud as a favorite especially over 3 I believe. The defense is so bad they never seem to cover and often just dont win....The other team I like this week is the Eagles. They are almost one of those teams where you can just throw the line out. When they win they usually win big. I think they have won 18 of their last 22 wins by a TD or more. So if you think they will win in Seattle odds are they will win going away.

Pats are another game Id stay away from. Neither team is any good. The Colts are probably better, but Im not sure if they are 5.5 better. If the Colts can somehow start fast they would cover but Im not sure if they can start quick against any opponent.

[Kerry Rhodes]

Good stuff on TB! I gotta run it down..

I'm also working on a tip of the week so to speak. Is this the thread we're going to use? Maybe we can get Moga to post here as well...

CTM, looking forward to your writeups. I'm still absolutely intrigued by that excel sheet involving DVOA since I value it so highly.

Ill still post all my official bets in Moga's thread if he does it weekly. I just wanted a place to discuss strategy, leans, and checking out some systems which Ill do here. I saw a interesting 2H system on Covers involving anytime the winning team at halftime was actually the underdog coming into the game. The other one is simply tracking reverse line movement, and seeing if we can tweak it and get up the percentage. I guess its just a bunch of ideas I would love people to give their opinion on if their interested.

[Irish Jet]

My advice - Listen to Yisman.

[Kerry Rhodes]

Im having an awful year with these games, but a few thoughts...Im with you on both the Jags and the Bucs. Think both teams will win and both will win big. Id stay away from the Ravens game. Neither team has any offense and both play pretty good defense. Ravens are typically junk away from home, the Miami game notwithstanding....Here is what would worry me with the Bears---they seem to lay down at home and let teams hang around. They have played great on the road against a super tough schedule, but something never works at home with them right now. Its a huge number to lay down...

I love Miami. Miami is playing excellent as an underdog and is 3-1 SU in games where they were a dog and they had a great chance to beat the Jets. The last two or three years Denver has been a dud as a favorite especially over 3 I believe. The defense is so bad they never seem to cover and often just dont win....The other team I like this week is the Eagles. They are almost one of those teams where you can just throw the line out. When they win they usually win big. I think they have won 18 of their last 22 wins by a TD or more. So if you think they will win in Seattle odds are they will win going away.

Pats are another game Id stay away from. Neither team is any good. The Colts are probably better, but Im not sure if they are 5.5 better. If the Colts can somehow start fast they would cover but Im not sure if they can start quick against any opponent.

This year has been tough, it seems like you really have to be picky. People have had a hard time just picking the winner let alone ATS. Alot of Survivors, and KOH's went quickly, or in its final stages due to big upsets. Im sure as you get used to the teams youll improve alot as the year goes by as your a smart guy.

These games where just my leans----Ill prob only bet half of them

-The Raven game is strictly a DVOA play---Balt is 4th in the league in DVOA, and Cleveland is 25th. I need to look into their play on the road ...

-The Bears Im alittle iffy on especially with the line movement early in the week. Detroit has been hanging in there more then I would like to admit in the last 3 weeks.

-Agreed on Jax/Tampa.....Im probably leaning Jax in my big Survivor pool as their coming off a loss, and Tampa is in KC although they should both lean big.

-I love Miami this year--And yes, Im actually jelous of their play. They remind me of the Jets from 2 years ago to come extenet.

-The Eagles I would be totally on, but the line is all weird. Everyone is on Phili, but the line moved the other way. Its begging avg joe to bet on the eagles right now which makes me either want to stay away.

-I think this really will be a playoff game to the Colts, and I think they win big. Its a must win, a nationally televised game against their biggest rival. Theres alot of hate there, and I think NE really is avg right now. JMO's

[Kerry Rhodes]

College Football--Just Following, not actually betting, and No research done on the games. Strictly on movement--Ill be looking at this the rest of the season, and looking at previous years. Last year these plays were at 55% which is still kind of low. Ive never bet college at all, but perhaps Ill consider it next year.

Games with possible plays

Cincinatti

Army(78/1)(+8),***

Pittsburgh(80/.5),

Utah State(.5),

Temple.5,

Texas Tech(60,1.5)(+3.5)***

Clemson(60/1)+3.5***

***Meet threshold currently.

[Jbro22]

The Jets could be a very good bet this week...

The Bills rank 24th in punt coverage and 27th in kick coverage. So Washington and Miller should be able to get us some decent starting positions, maybe even take one or two all the way. On the other hand, knowing our coaching staff, they'll probably overrule Westhoff and put Sione Pouha back to return! What do you think?

Has Miller returned anything this year?

[afosomf]

i like Jax and Indy to cover big this week

Cinn has quit on coach and jax can run and their D should shut out Fitzy

Indy's back is against wall, addai and sanders are back, and oh NE secondary

is gawd darn awful!!!!!!!!

[CTM]

CTM, looking forward to your writeups. I'm still absolutely intrigued by that excel sheet involving DVOA since I value it so highly.

Ill still post all my official bets in Moga's thread if he does it weekly. I just wanted a place to discuss strategy, leans, and checking out some systems which Ill do here. I saw a interesting 2H system on Covers involving anytime the winning team at halftime was actually the underdog coming into the game. The other one is simply tracking reverse line movement, and seeing if we can tweak it and get up the percentage. I guess its just a bunch of ideas I would love people to give their opinion on if their interested.

Yea good idea for a thread, I'd like to hear more about the second half system. I like to play heavy favorites on the second half line when they were losing at halftime, but only when I'm watching the game so I know for sure why they are losing and have a feel for the game..

I'll get you the dvoa spreadsheet. It's on my list of things to do this weekend. Check back Saturday for that stuff, usually I would do tonight, but it's Halloween and I'll be out with the kids so I may not get to it.

[CTM]

Im having an awful year with these games, but a few thoughts...Im with you on both the Jags and the Bucs. Think both teams will win and both will win big. Id stay away from the Ravens game. Neither team has any offense and both play pretty good defense. Ravens are typically junk away from home, the Miami game notwithstanding....Here is what would worry me with the Bears---they seem to lay down at home and let teams hang around. They have played great on the road against a super tough schedule, but something never works at home with them right now. Its a huge number to lay down...

I love Miami. Miami is playing excellent as an underdog and is 3-1 SU in games where they were a dog and they had a great chance to beat the Jets. The last two or three years Denver has been a dud as a favorite especially over 3 I believe. The defense is so bad they never seem to cover and often just dont win....The other team I like this week is the Eagles. They are almost one of those teams where you can just throw the line out. When they win they usually win big. I think they have won 18 of their last 22 wins by a TD or more. So if you think they will win in Seattle odds are they will win going away.

Pats are another game Id stay away from. Neither team is any good. The Colts are probably better, but Im not sure if they are 5.5 better. If the Colts can somehow start fast they would cover but Im not sure if they can start quick against any opponent.

Nice to see you over here Jason, you should cross post the game previews and reviews, best on the net imo..

Agreed about Miami, what a thorn in our side. I'm thinking about taking them for a nickel on the moneyline just to cushion the blow should they win and we lose, lol..

[Kerry Rhodes]

Yea good idea for a thread, I'd like to hear more about the second half system. I like to play heavy favorites on the second half line when they were losing at halftime, but only when I'm watching the game so I know for sure why they are losing and have a feel for the game..

I'll get you the dvoa spreadsheet. It's on my list of things to do this weekend. Check back Saturday for that stuff, usually I would do tonight, but it's Halloween and I'll be out with the kids so I may not get to it.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100263268&t=0

Im not a huge guy on systems, but this and the reverse line movement just make a ton of sense to me. If a team is outplaying the other one, and winning(if it isnt a fluke)why not take them in the second half getting big points?

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Where's Moga's picks?

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College Football final picks--Again no money, just research.

Novemeber 2nd, Final Lineup.

**Army (74) Movement 1.5 (Home) +7.5

**Iowa State(65) Movement 2, although line was at 31 to start., (Away) +29

**Utah State 60, movement 1 (Home), +6.5

**Texas Tech(63,movement 1.5) (Home) +3.5

**Clemson(60) Movement 1 (Away)

**Cincinatti (65) movement 1 (Home)------------------Result Winner SU & ATS.

Movement under 1-just missed system.

*Temple (75)Movement.5 (Away) +7

[slowmoe57]

My advice - Listen to Yisman.

and dont listen to slowmoe57 --- but anyway

The lock

Denver -3.5 vs mia

honarable mention

Minny -4.5 vs Texans

for the parlay

philly -6.5 vs Seattle

10-14 for the year and 5-3 on my locks

good luck to all

[Vudu]

A lot of people will be out of $$ this week when the JETS win.

[CTM]

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=100263268&t=0

Im not a huge guy on systems, but this and the reverse line movement just make a ton of sense to me. If a team is outplaying the other one, and winning(if it isnt a fluke)why not take them in the second half getting big points?

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Where's Moga's picks?

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College Football final picks--Again no money, just research.

Novemeber 2nd, Final Lineup.

**Army (74) Movement 1.5 (Home) +7.5

**Iowa State(65) Movement 2, although line was at 31 to start., (Away) +29

**Utah State 60, movement 1 (Home), +6.5

**Texas Tech(63,movement 1.5) (Home) +3.5

**Clemson(60) Movement 1 (Away)

**Cincinatti (65) movement 1 (Home)------------------Result Winner SU & ATS.

Movement under 1-just missed system.

*Temple (75)Movement.5 (Away) +7

There's a guy on Covers that does computer picks on underdogs. Did real well last year. Atcsaw I believe. the forumula was centered around underdogs and who was the better running team. I checked back this year and he's wasn't doing them but claimed he would be later.

And of course the home dogs on Thursday night is another good trend..

I stopped betting college ball though, supposedly it's an easier game but I don't follow it enough and far too often last year ended up with big drunken bets on the late saturday night espn games that friggen killed me.

[joewilly]

I used to enjoy betting on games with the 1 & only bookie on island. I had 200 in the bank with him but due to hurricane & post effects from it he stopped doin it. then he got sick & I haven't stepped up yet with his predecessor as it's kinda illegal here

[CTM]

Since we had a few winning teasers bets last week I thought I'd touch on a winning teaser strategy not so quickly.

This post is going to have some math in it, so I wanted to build the foundation by starting with the breakeven point (b/e) you need to be above in order to win money with sports investing(cough). For standard 10% juice, that figure is 52.38% and can be calculated like below, where x is the win percent, risk is what you need to lay to win 100 and the equation is set to 0 to "breakeven" as our expected return

expected return = X - risk/100(1-X)

or in the case of 10% juice

0 = x - 110/100(1-x)

Solving for x:

0 = x - 11/10 + 11/10x

11/10 = 10/10x + 11/10x

11/10 = 21/10x

11 = 21x

x = 11/21

x= .5238

A standard NFL teaser which I'm going to talk about here involves 2 teams, 6 points and standard risk 110 to win 100 payout, where the bettor trades the ability to add or subtract 6 points from the spread and in return is required to win both games (legs) in order to win the bet. As such, the breakeven points for the standard NFL teaser is also 52.38%, that is, you need to win both bets 52.38% of the time in order to breakeven.

In order to calculate how much value you have to extract from those 6 points the book is giving you to alter the spread, you need to calculate what your win percentage needs to be on the legs of the teaser in order to reach the breakeven point of 52.38%. If your win percentage on the legs was known, the calculation to find the teaser win % is simple:

Say, 60% win percentage on the legs

x = .60 x .60

x = .36

So picking winners 60% of the time on the legs of a teaser over the long haul will result in a 36% overall win percentage on

the teasers, which obviously will bankrupt you pretty quickly. Since we know the breakeven point and want to find the needed leg win % the formula changes to

.5238 = x * x

x= sqrt(.5238)

x = .7237

As shown above, over the long haul in order to breakeven on the teasers we need to achieve a 72.37% win percentage on the legs. Since betting individual games only require a 52.38% win percentage to break even and 72.37% - 52.38% is roughly 20, we can say that we need to use those 6 points to pick winners at a 20 point higher percent then we do with out them, otherwise we are giving up value and should stick to betting individual games. Broken down like this, you can see very clearly what the deal you made with the bookie really was; can you utilize the 6 points the book is giving you to increase your win % on games by 20 points?

In most cases the answer is no, which is why many people say betting teasers is for chumps. There is however a scenario in which these bets can be smart and profitable and once again it revolves around those key figures of 3 and 7. Over the long term, Nfl games finish with a team winning by 3,4,5,6 and 7 with a fairly high frequency (last week for example 6 out of 14 games ended with one of these differences). The frequency with which these winning spreads occur provides tremendous value to the teaser bettor. As an example, it's very intuitive for anyone who follows football even a little bit to understand that playing a dog and raising the spread from +2 to +8 in the NFL is much more likely to be a factor in determining a winning or a losing bet then raising a college dog from +42 to +48. The example is extreme, but intended to illustrate clearly that all spreads are not created equal, and thus your use of those 6 points in a teaser can be more or less valuable to you depending on where you use them.

Like all good intuitive and logical hypothesis's this one too is backed by facts. Stanford Wong first researched and made note of this in his book "Sharp sports Betting" and this teaser strategy is often referred to as a "Wong" teaser. It turns out that going back through the history books, teasing spreads up from 1.5-2.5 to 7-5-8.5 or down from 7.5-8.5 to 1.5-2.5 actually increased a bettors win probability by roughly 24 points. Remember the 20 point hump I talked about earlier in terms of making teaser bets worth it? Since 24 > 20, this means that if you started betting just Wong teasers in 1977 and did so without any handicapping and just by throwing darts (expected 50/50 win rate), you would have won money up till now. Let's plug it in to the formulas above:

Lets set our leg win % to be 74% (50% dart throw + 24% "Wong" teaser increase)

x = .74 * .74

x = .5476

Lets say we made only 10 of these bets a season for the last 30 seasons, at $100 a pop. That's 300 bets.

Now we solve for expected return per bet with the b/e formula above:

x = .5476 - 110/100(1-.5476)

x= .0499

With this win percentage, we'd expect a return of 4.99% per bet, or $4.99 for our $100 bet. Making 300 bets would result $1498.8 total return, with no handicapping!

In his research and other similar since his, the jump completely over 3 and 7 is the only jump that adds enough value to get you over that 20% hump. Every other teaser you make you are giving up value to the bookie when you do so. In short, it's the only "smart" tease there is.

Note that in the short term, anything can happen, so always rely on your handicapping. Anyone following the thread last week would know that I made a non-Wong teaser bet, but I was careful to use the concepts provided her to minimize the value I gave up while knowingly making a "bad" bet (I teased Indy to +10.5 and the O/U to O34.5 getting above a key 10 figure and below a key 35 figure)

I wanted to explain this in detail cause I think the concepts can help everyone who invests in sports (cough). With teasers, always try and get over key figures to maximize value and think twice about whether or not the bet would make more sense as 2 individual bets and whether or not you are really getting the most value out of your trade.

[Kerry Rhodes]

There's a guy on Covers that does computer picks on underdogs. Did real well last year. Atcsaw I believe. the forumula was centered around underdogs and who was the better running team. I checked back this year and he's wasn't doing them but claimed he would be later.

And of course the home dogs on Thursday night is another good trend..

I stopped betting college ball though, supposedly it's an easier game but I don't follow it enough and far too often last year ended up with big drunken bets on the late saturday night espn games that friggen killed me.

Thanks, Ill be all about tweaking and finding a way to get this system around 60 percent. Right now it was somewhere around 55 in college last year--

----------------------------------------

I love any long scientific read, and will be checking out the teaser post during the week

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Results, RESULTS of College

College Football final picks--Again no money, just research.

Novemeber 2nd, Final Lineup.

**Army (74) Movement 1.5 (Home) +7.5

**Iowa State(65) Movement 2, although line was at 31 to start., (Away) +29

**Utah State 60, movement 1 (Home), +6.5

**Texas Tech(63,movement 1.5) (Home) +3.5

**Clemson(60) Movement 1 (Away) +3

**Cincinatti (65) movement 1 (Home)------------------Result Winner SU & ATS.

Movement under 1-just missed system.

*Temple (75)Movement.5 (Away) +7

First off, Im ommiting The iowa state game immedietly. I felt uncomfortable about it the second I saw that, and dont want to ever bet on any games with those margins. Who is willing to put down big money on that type of game? Especially in college where teams run up the score if they can.

Army LOST ATS, LOST SU

Utah State WON ATS, WON SU

Texas Tech WON ATS, WON SU

CLemson WON ATS, WON SU

Cincinatti WON ATS, WON SU

Nice start for College---4-1. Not only did 4 out of 5 teams cover, they won straight up. Most of the plays were underdogs to start. Note that Iowa was a loss, but will not be recorded in the system.

[Kerry Rhodes]

Early Leans.....

Jax -8--I really dont mind laying points against the Chiefs, Lions, and Bengals of the NFL. I like Jax coming off the loss, and there ground game should be able to keep scoring on Cinci in the second half. Betting against a home dog, and being part of the public is somthing I dont like doing though.

Tampa -9--Two weeks ago I bet on KC at home thinking they always play well there. I think they do poorly coming off a tough loss against the Jets. Also read above.

Balt +1---Balitmore is just such a superior team IMO. People want to believe Cleveland will play like they did last year, but this is not last year. Im searching for reason's not to bet this, bc it almost seems fishy.

Arizona -3--Arizona really has done poorly with traveling this year, and I think there just the superior team during a normal week....Ill be staying updated on S-Jax though.

Chicago -13--Again, Ill be betting against the bottom three teams all season. I dont like that its a division game, but I think thats what stops it from being a trap. I love where the public is betting--Is there any shady line movement here? I have the public on detroit, and the line moving in Chicago's direction.

Miami +3--I like the chances of Miami's defeense slowing down Jay Cutler, and I think Miami will be able to score, and scoree on Denver. I would be searching for any Ronnie Brown, or Ricky Williams prop bets as well.

Indi -5.5--I think this may be like a SuperBowl for Indi especially at home, and its close to a must win. I dont like New England against any team that can score points--I mean, they let St louis stick around with them.

Steelers/Redskins over 37--I always favor the scoring on a national game.

Sucker Bets to consider?

Jets +5.5

Oakland +3

Seattle +7

Shady Line movement?

Seattle

Jets

Chicago

Whats your early leans?

Alittle rushed this week---Then today found out about the site trueprotein which is just a wonderful site.

OFFICIAL PLAYS

Minnesota -4.5. Houston has played 4 straight games at home, Minny is off a bye and will be able to score on Houston.

Miami +3.5. Miami is going to be able to score, and run all day while Jay Cutler see's another 3-4 defense after NE's killed the denver offense. Jason had a nice trend about Denver losing ATS in this spot/season.

Indi -6. Described earlier. Revenge, Game of the year, Must win, New England very overrated, and Average IMO.

Tampa -9.5--What was that stat? 33-6 in this position--Tampa can stop the run, and run the ball. They wont pull a Mangini and throw the ball everyplay.

Jax -2, Tampa -2.5 Two Team Teaser. Explained earlier.

Note-Stay away games. St Louis, Seattle, and Oakland are all stay away games IMO. Line movement has been shady, and theres going to be one or two upsets.

Games Im not betting, just following.

Line Movement plays? (No bet, but worth a look going in)

Jets +5. Lets see, Early in the week everyone was on Buffalo and the line went down from 6 to 5.5, Late in the week everyone else was on Buffalo (67%) and it went down again to 5. Could there be an upset tomm? Not a bet, but it looks good for us.

Tenn under 41

-Public is all over the over this game but the game went from 42.5 to 41

Colts Under 44

-Public is all over the OVER but spread went down from 45 y to 44.

[yisman]

^ Don't use reverse line movement for totals.

Denver, Seattle, Green Bay.

[CTM]

^ Don't use reverse line movement for totals.

Denver, Seattle, Green Bay.

Agree with this for the most part, I don't think there's enough volume to really pull out sharp activity. I use it as an indicator if it's a bet I was thinking of making anyway..

[Maxman]

My lock of the week?

Cleveland Browns.

The only other lock I broadcast this year was when the Cardinals beat the Bills. I said take the Cards. I am feeling pretty good about the Browns today. Take Cleveland and give the 3.

[CTM]

Interesting games for me this week:

Jets at Buffalo

Open: Buff -6, 41. Ciurrent: Buff -5, 41.5

Classic reverse line movement here off a fairly key number of 6. Roughly 6 out of every 10 bets are coming down on the Bills but the line has retracted. The problem with this one is moving against what DVOA is telling me the line should be as well. Usually I like these plays a lot more when DVOA and the reverse action are in agreement, but this time out DVOA agreed with the opening line.

Still, it's a good sign for Jets fans when money is on your side. Another thign to consider is that DVOA can't judge the impact just yet of Schobel being out and McGee hoepfully still hobbled.

Miami at Denver

Open: Denver -3, 47.5. Current: Denver -4, 50.5

Over 6 out of every 10 bets are coming down on Denver as the public continues two trends this year, being enamored with Denver's big play offense and ignoring their abysmal defense, while at the same time undervaluing Miami's efficient offense and refusing to believe how much better they are under Sparano this season.

DVOA predicts a Dolphin slight victory at 26.5 to 25.7, meaning there's about 5 points of line value built in here.

Still, I have to say my gut is telling me to stay away. I've ridden Miami to some nice profits with several big ML hits this season, but I'm feeling like Shannan and crew having 2 weeks to game plan here might crack the Sparano puzzle. I think Miami, like we were in 2006 is a soft team, that is coached well and winning a bit with smoke and mirrors. I don't think will play as well behind by a lot and under pressure to keep scoring. I'm feeling like Denver might jump out to a quick 14-0 lead here and then the rout will be on.

Others quickly:

Philly at Seattle has shown real strong reverse line movement as more then 8 out of every 10 bets are coming down on Philly yet the line made a huge move off of 7 down to 6.5. I've seen 7 around a bit this morning so you can still fidn the seven if you are shopping. DVOA in this game predicts a comfortable 10 pt Eagles victory, so again DVOA and the sharps are not in agreement here.

Tampa at KC: DVOA predicts a comfortable 13 point win here by Tampa leaving some nice line value whether you got the line at -7.5 or -9.5. The only question here is whether or not the Thigpen lead Spread offense if for real or if the Jets pass D is just that bad.

Balt at Clev: ClasA little bit of offense versus defense overvaluation. Baltimore has been one of the best teams in football this year and Cleveland one of the worst (although they are playing better of late) DVOA predicts a strong Baltimore 5 pt victory, but they're actually getting 2.5 points currently. Something Baltimore bettors should be cautious about is that Baltimore is banged up in the secondary, which could make Cleveland's offense a little more potent.

[yisman]

DVOA doesn't know how to take into account the teams that have a stronger HFA. It rates all home field as the same.

games you mentioned:

Jets

Broncos

Seahawks

Buccaneers

Ravens

[JMJ]

Took the Jets +5 and the HOU/MIN over 46.5.

[CTM]

DVOA doesn't know how to take into account the teams that have a stronger HFA. It rates all home field as the same.

games you mentioned:

Jets

Broncos

Seahawks

Buccaneers

Ravens

Yeah, I noticed that as well and edited the formula to slide HOF advantage to my liking.

Speaking of which, in the speadsheet Kerry, there's a cell to do this for the predicted spread. For the predicted score howeve I forgot to add this feature and usually edit the formula directly. I'll add it and send it back over..

[CTM]

Took the Jets +5 and the HOU/MIN over 46.5.

We've been talking about this stuff for a couple of years now and I gotta say, you are friggen money on O/U

[JMJ]

We've been talking about this stuff for a couple of years now and I gotta say, you are friggen money on O/U

Thanks. I'm 8-1 now on the year and you can pretty much vouch for it since I've been communicating with you over PMs most the year.

[CTM]

Thanks. I'm 8-1 now on the year and you can pretty much vouch for it since I've been communicating with you over PMs most the year.

I can vouch for you..

For me.. Friggen tampa today..

I had the Jets ML though so that was nice..

[JMJ]

I can vouch for you..

For me.. Friggen tampa today..

I had the Jets ML though so that was nice..

Damnit. I didn't even think about that (money line on Jets). I would have taken that rather than the +5.

I think I'm done for the weekend. Don't want to give any of it away.

[Maxman]

Damn Browns cost me. Still up for the year over triple my original investment. But I thought the Browns defense would play better.