New York Jets Mafia Game Thread

[Dan.]

Unvote: Slats

If Vicious is faking he's a finder, then that sucks. But I don't know why out of all the fake investigation results he could offer, he would give us an innocent result on Slats, rather than a guilty result (on anyone he knows to be innocent).

And I'm not feeling very strongly that Slats would be a godfather. People jumped all over his serial killer comment the last game, and this reminds me of that.

[Dan.]

And it looks like we're finally playing mafia--10 members viewing, and several pages of posts this morning. Kickin' it up!

I know, I'm glad the game is finally getting fun.

[Doggin94it]

It doesn't make sense and there's a lot of questions around it, which is why i my gut is telling me there shouldn't be a counterclaim. Let the doctor protect him and we'll see what happens. If Vic is lieing scum, he'll be caught eventually, there's no reason to sacrifice our cop in the process...

No, no, no no no! Problems with this approach:

1) Catches no mafia if Vic is the cop and dies (no counterclaimant to immediately lynch)

2) Too easy to fake (mafia submits a No Kill tonight, then shows up tomorrow saying "aha! Vicious is now confirmed innocent")

There's really no benefit to avoiding a counterclaim in this situation; the only way it's helpful to not counterclaim if scum false-claims finder is if the scum shows up and claims to have identified a guilty player (since you can sit back, watch the town lynch the player, and either have a mafia member dead or an innocent dead and the false-claimant dead the next day [note: this does not apply at endgame, where any innocent death loses the game for the town])

[Bleedin Green]

Vote Count:

Vicious89x (3) - Doggin94it, SMC, Jets Things

AVM (2) - Pac2566, CTM

SMC (2) - EY, Vicious89x

Pac2566 (2) - AVM, Sharrow

With 13 players remaining, it takes 7 votes to cut.

[Doggin94it]

Unvote: Slats

If Vicious is faking he's a finder, then that sucks. But I don't know why out of all the fake investigation results he could offer, he would give us an innocent result on Slats, rather than a guilty result (on anyone he knows to be innocent).

And I'm not feeling very strongly that Slats would be a godfather. People jumped all over his serial killer comment the last game, and this reminds me of that.

Think about what would happen if a fake finder claimed an innocent was guilty:

1) We all lynch the innocent

2) The innocent is revealed as innocent on coroner

3) Hey! The "finder" lied! He must be scum.

4) The false claimant gets lynched the next day.

Lying by identifying an innocent player as guilty is only worth it at endgame, where the mafia only needs one more innocent death to win. At any other time, its just delayed suicide.

[CTM]

No, no, no no no! Problems with this approach:

1) Catches no mafia if Vic is the cop and dies (no counterclaimant to immediately lynch)

2) Too easy to fake (mafia submits a No Kill tonight, then shows up tomorrow saying "aha! Vicious is now confirmed innocent")

There's really no benefit to avoiding a counterclaim in this situation; the only way it's helpful to not counterclaim if scum false-claims finder is if the scum shows up and claims to have identified a guilty player (since you can sit back, watch the town lynch the player, and either have a mafia member dead or an innocent dead and the false-claimant dead the next day [note: this does not apply at endgame, where any innocent death loses the game for the town])

1) if Mafia would like to fake-counter claim they can be my guest..

2) Fake what? Remember it's only day 2, no need to rush. At some point one of these things will happen which will tell us Vic's alignment

a) The real cop finds scum and announces (now we know that Vic is scum and our cop, under cover, found a second partner)

The real cop is pressured and roleclaims during the day

c) The real cop turns up dead in a NK. (now we know Vic is guilty)

d) Vic gets a positive investigation and leads the lynch of scum (now vic looks 90% vetted and one of a, b or c will still happen if he's lieing)

What exactly is the danger in Vic being unclaimed and lieing? He's not going to claim a guilty on an innocent player to trade, unless they have some kind of power which allows them to investigate townie roles and he wants to trade for the doctor.

[Doggin94it]

says the guy who smoked him out ...

I have a hard time believing you didn't pick up the obvious tells yet you insisted on poking him until he cracked..

If he's a roled player, he "cracked" (put himself on the night-kill list) the second he begged for a "last post" with only 2 votes on himself. Assuming he actually is innocent, once he posted that, he was dead without doc protection - and he wasn't going to get doc protection without a LOT more of a reveal.

Plus, without details and an opportunity - and failure - to counterclaim, vaguely hinting at having a role isn't good enough for me to forget that Vicious looks scummy. In fact, that's a terrific mafia play, since "hey, I may be roled" cannot be counterclaimed in any way. So yeah, I'm still very suspicious that Vic is lying, and I want to see full details of his role and give the rest of the group an opportunity to counterclaim.

[CTM]

Think about what would happen if a fake finder claimed an innocent was guilty:

1) We all lynch the innocent

2) The innocent is revealed as innocent on coroner

3) Hey! The "finder" lied! He must be scum.

4) The false claimant gets lynched the next day.

Lying by identifying an innocent player as guilty is only worth it at endgame, where the mafia only needs one more innocent death to win. At any other time, its just delayed suicide.

exactly. which is why a scum fake claim on day 2 is no worry to us unless the mafia has and investigative role of some sort.. The only players scum would trade themselves for would be the real cop or the doctor.

[Dan.]

Think about what would happen if a fake finder claimed an innocent was guilty:

1) We all lynch the innocent

2) The innocent is revealed as innocent on coroner

3) Hey! The "finder" lied! He must be scum.

4) The false claimant gets lynched the next day.

Lying by identifying an innocent player as guilty is only worth it at endgame, where the mafia only needs one more innocent death to win. At any other time, its just delayed suicide.

Right, but I thought the point was that Vicious was going to get killed or lynched soon anyway, so why not try to buy himself one more day to take down an innocent? Although maybe it's working in the reverse, and he's thinking if he gets lynched today while claiming Slats is innocent, we'll all lynch Slats tomorrow. At any rate, I now have significant doubts about whether Slats is scum because if Vicious is telling the truth, I don't see Slats as a godfather.

[Vicious89x]

Meh, I do think this is the best way. I'm more valuable alive to this town then dead. Plus I got some suspicions on people based on today's discussions

Clearly I'm the finder or in this case of this game I'm not going to name what player I am but I'm the Jets NFLPA Rep. I investigated Slats. He flipped innocent, which is why I've been saying "Leave him be" but at the same time could be a godfather.

You got 2 choices here IMO, if we don't trust me or slats chose one of us to kill. If I die I'm exonerated in death, if Slats dies and is innocent, I'm still exonerated. If he dies and flips scum or even better, godfather... well I might not be "proven" but feasibly I could be because he flipped innocent to me.

Also if there is a counter claimant I'd urge you guys to lynch them (obviously) but if you feel the need go ahead and kill me.

[CTM]

Right, but I thought the point was that Vicious was going to get killed or lynched soon anyway, so why not try to buy himself one more day to take down an innocent? Although maybe it's working in the reverse, and he's thinking if he gets lynched today while claiming Slats is innocent, we'll all lynch Slats tomorrow. At any rate, I now have significant doubts about whether Slats is scum because if Vicious is telling the truth, I don't see Slats as a godfather.

Which is still preferrable to outing the real cop btw..

[slats]

Think about what would happen if a fake finder claimed an innocent was guilty:

1) We all lynch the innocent

2) The innocent is revealed as innocent on coroner

3) Hey! The "finder" lied! He must be scum.

4) The false claimant gets lynched the next day.

Lying by identifying an innocent player as guilty is only worth it at endgame, where the mafia only needs one more innocent death to win. At any other time, its just delayed suicide.

Basically you're saying that a lying scum finder will pick out an innocent player and make the claim that he's innocent to protect himself. So either Vic's really the finder and found me innocent, or he's a lying scum finder who's using the innocent me for protection.

Works for me.

That said, I agree that Vic needs to spell out what his role is right now. Vic, if you're the cop -and there's no counter claim- you're assured of protection for the time being. If you don't come clean, without doctor protection you're probably toast tonight. Better to tell who you are and what you've got.

[CTM]

Meh, I do think this is the best way. I'm more valuable alive to this town then dead. Plus I got some suspicions on people based on today's discussions

Clearly I'm the finder or in this case of this game I'm not going to name what player I am but I'm the Jets NFLPA Rep. I investigated Slats. He flipped innocent, which is why I've been saying "Leave him be" but at the same time could be a godfather.

You got 2 choices here IMO, if we don't trust me or slats chose one of us to kill. If I die I'm exonerated in death, if Slats dies and is innocent, I'm still exonerated. If he dies and flips scum or even better, godfather... well I might not be "proven" but feasibly I could be because he flipped innocent to me.

Also if there is a counter claimant I'd urge you guys to lynch them (obviously) but if you feel the need go ahead and kill me.

No you aren't...

If you were scum you'd know whose innocent and not..

In any event, DOCTOR YOU MUST PROTECT VIC TONIGHT!!!

Don't mess around, with 2 killing entities at night, 1 of which's alignment is unknown, the odds that someone takes a shot at him increase..

[slats]

Okay... I was a little late.

[Vicious89x]

No you aren't...

If you were scum you'd know whose innocent and not..

In any event, DOCTOR YOU MUST PROTECT VIC TONIGHT!!!

Don't mess around, with 2 killing entities at night, 1 of which's alignment is unknown, the odds that someone takes a shot at him increase..

Valid point.

[AVM]

Yeah, Doc's gotta protect Vic tonight regardless

[slats]

Meh, I do think this is the best way. I'm more valuable alive to this town then dead. Plus I got some suspicions on people based on today's discussions

Clearly I'm the finder or in this case of this game I'm not going to name what player I am but I'm the Jets NFLPA Rep. I investigated Slats. He flipped innocent, which is why I've been saying "Leave him be" but at the same time could be a godfather.

If not true, that's an excellent role reveal. I believe it.

Now, what suspicions do you have?

[Dan.]

No, no, no no no! Problems with this approach:

1) Catches no mafia if Vic is the cop and dies (no counterclaimant to immediately lynch)

2) Too easy to fake (mafia submits a No Kill tonight, then shows up tomorrow saying "aha! Vicious is now confirmed innocent")

There's really no benefit to avoiding a counterclaim in this situation; the only way it's helpful to not counterclaim if scum false-claims finder is if the scum shows up and claims to have identified a guilty player (since you can sit back, watch the town lynch the player, and either have a mafia member dead or an innocent dead and the false-claimant dead the next day [note: this does not apply at endgame, where any innocent death loses the game for the town])

Neither of these is a problem if the doctor is protecting Vicious tonight, right?

[Vicious89x]

If not true, that's an excellent role reveal. I believe it.

Now, what suspicions do you have?

I don't want to name players exactly. My case is not really "strong" enough against them and I don't have a guilty yet so I'd rather not lead the town down the wrong path.

All I'll say is I'll be targeting some of the guys with experience who are pretty damn well versed in manipulating this town if scum. I think it'll strengthen the town for the reason that if the are NOT scum they are certainly valuable.

[Doggin94it]

1) if Mafia would like to fake-counter claim they can be my guest..

2) Fake what? Remember it's only day 2, no need to rush. At some point one of these things will happen which will tell us Vic's alignment

a) The real cop finds scum and announces (now we know that Vic is scum and our cop, under cover, found a second partner)

The real cop is pressured and roleclaims during the day

c) The real cop turns up dead in a NK. (now we know Vic is guilty)

d) Vic gets a positive investigation and leads the lynch of scum (now vic looks 90% vetted and one of a, b or c will still happen if he's lieing)

What exactly is the danger in Vic being unclaimed and lieing? He's not going to claim a guilty on an innocent player to trade, unless they have some kind of power which allows them to investigate townie roles and he wants to trade for the doctor.

Or:

e) Mafia false-cop serves up a teammate and identifies another teammate and several townies as innocent, while real cop survives to endgame. Endgame arrives, real cop says "Hey, Vicious is a lying liar who lies, I'm the real cop" and we have no way to vet the claim - we need to lynch one or the other, with no way to test which is telling the truth.

If you get a counterclaim, on the other hand, you leave both alive and have them tell you their investigation results each night - lynching anyone identified as guilty. Every so often, the real finder cross-checks the false-finder's "innocent" results - if any of them come up guilty, then both scum are toast. The doc flips a coin to protect one of the claimants, and if he gets it wrong, we traded our finder for scum. If he gets it right (no kill that night) he protects the real finder the rest of the way.

Here's how it breaks down.

No counterclaim of false claimant:

Upside - real cop is hidden, can reveal when he has another scum guilty. His death will kill false claimant

Downside - real cop may die before revealing, preventing the town from getting any information beyond the false claimant (i.e. no way to know which innocents the cop investigated); real cop may survive to endgame, leaving town in the hands of fate.

Counterclaim:

Upside: Double barreled finder investigations - false claimant cannot misidentify innocents as guilty, true finder can sporadically (not every night) double check false claimant's results, any discrepancy nails 2 scum; consistent innocent results are confirmed true.

Downside: Doc may mis-protect, and cop dies - which still leaves us with one identified mafioso.

Basically, the downside of an immediate counterclaim is still fairly decent for the town - confirmed finder information (innocents investigated) and a dead mafia member, while the upside far outweighs that of not having a counterclaim. And the potential downsides of not having a counterclaim outweigh the upsides. It's just the wrong play.

[CTM]

Or:

e) Mafia false-cop serves up a teammate and identifies another teammate and several townies as innocent, while real cop survives to endgame. Endgame arrives, real cop says "Hey, Vicious is a lying liar who lies, I'm the real cop" and we have no way to vet the claim - we need to lynch one or the other, with no way to test which is telling the truth.

If vic wants to serve up a team mate already down 1, I'll glady accept.

Remember this strategy is based on where we are in the game, it will evolve as the numbers change. The real cop will need to counter claim at some point before end game, I just don't think it's now, given that Vic was self voting this time yesterday (in game time)

And if the real cop is really clever he'll very subtly breadcrumb his results... just sayin

[Doggin94it]

Meh, I do think this is the best way. I'm more valuable alive to this town then dead. Plus I got some suspicions on people based on today's discussions

Clearly I'm the finder or in this case of this game I'm not going to name what player I am but I'm the Jets NFLPA Rep. I investigated Slats. He flipped innocent, which is why I've been saying "Leave him be" but at the same time could be a godfather.

You got 2 choices here IMO, if we don't trust me or slats chose one of us to kill. If I die I'm exonerated in death, if Slats dies and is innocent, I'm still exonerated. If he dies and flips scum or even better, godfather... well I might not be "proven" but feasibly I could be because he flipped innocent to me.

Also if there is a counter claimant I'd urge you guys to lynch them (obviously) but if you feel the need go ahead and kill me.

OK. unvote: Vicious.

If anyone out there is the "real cop" - i.e. if vicious is scum - please counterclaim NOW.

Under no circumstances do we lynch vicious - you don't lynch a finder claimant in order to confirm that he's telling the truth.

[Dan.]

Or:

e) Mafia false-cop serves up a teammate and identifies another teammate and several townies as innocent, while real cop survives to endgame. Endgame arrives, real cop says "Hey, Vicious is a lying liar who lies, I'm the real cop" and we have no way to vet the claim - we need to lynch one or the other, with no way to test which is telling the truth.

If you get a counterclaim, on the other hand, you leave both alive and have them tell you their investigation results each night - lynching anyone identified as guilty. Every so often, the real finder cross-checks the false-finder's "innocent" results - if any of them come up guilty, then both scum are toast. The doc flips a coin to protect one of the claimants, and if he gets it wrong, we traded our finder for scum. If he gets it right (no kill that night) he protects the real finder the rest of the way.

Here's how it breaks down.

No counterclaim of false claimant:

Upside - real cop is hidden, can reveal when he has another scum guilty. His death will kill false claimant

Downside - real cop may die before revealing, preventing the town from getting any information beyond the false claimant (i.e. no way to know which innocents the cop investigated); real cop may survive to endgame, leaving town in the hands of fate.

Counterclaim:

Upside: Double barreled finder investigations - false claimant cannot misidentify innocents as guilty, true finder can sporadically (not every night) double check false claimant's results, any discrepancy nails 2 scum; consistent innocent results are confirmed true.

Downside: Doc may mis-protect, and cop dies - which still leaves us with one identified mafioso.

Basically, the downside of an immediate counterclaim is still fairly decent for the town - confirmed finder information (innocents investigated) and a dead mafia member, while the upside far outweighs that of not having a counterclaim. And the potential downsides of not having a counterclaim outweigh the upsides. It's just the wrong play.

I didn't think of this. It makes sense to me now, especially with two potential night kills and knowing Vicious has the doctor's protection. Seems like there's a fairly high probability a real cop, if Vicious is lying, (not to mention the doctor) could die tonight ...

[Vicious89x]

Can we drop the ****ing self vote. For the love of god, I'm human and was stressed out of my skull with tons of crap on my plate. Throw that and being grilled from second 1 and being a townie again got me pissed. Jesus.

[Doggin94it]

Neither of these is a problem if the doctor is protecting Vicious tonight, right?

No - if the doc protects vicious, vicious won't die (which is good if vicious is telling the truth) but if vicious is scum, then the "real cop" very well might. Similarly, a non-kill tonight will make us all think "aha, the doc protected vicious, the mafia tried to kill him - clearly, vicious is the real finder and that's why there was no kill"

So if the "real cop" is laying low, when he does choose to reveal we'll be much more suspicious of him than we are at the moment

[CTM]

I didn't think of this. It makes sense to me now, especially with two potential night kills and knowing Vicious has the doctor's protection. Seems like there's a fairly high probability a real cop, if Vicious is lying, (not to mention the doctor) could die tonight ...

there's 13 players, chance of a cross kill or a no kill if it's a vig.. I don't think the odds are that high yet..

Going by that logic, why not just mass claim and start lynching roleless townie claims every day?

[Dan.]

No - if the doc protects vicious, vicious won't die (which is good if vicious is telling the truth) but if vicious is scum, then the "real cop" very well might. Similarly, a non-kill tonight will make us all think "aha, the doc protected vicious, the mafia tried to kill him - clearly, vicious is the real finder and that's why there was no kill"

So if the "real cop" is laying low, when he does choose to reveal we'll be much more suspicious of him than we are at the moment

Yup, I just mentioned that. I didn't think that part through.

I will be shocked if there is no counterclaim at this point. If Vicious is lying, the real cop obviously needs to come forward. And even if Vicious is telling the truth, we're basically in a position where we're begging the scum to fake reveal.

[CTM]

No - if the doc protects vicious, vicious won't die (which is good if vicious is telling the truth) but if vicious is scum, then the "real cop" very well might. Similarly, a non-kill tonight will make us all think "aha, the doc protected vicious, the mafia tried to kill him - clearly, vicious is the real finder and that's why there was no kill"

So if the "real cop" is laying low, when he does choose to reveal we'll be much more suspicious of him than we are at the moment

Why? Again, look no further then the zombie game. No kill after vicious revealed, he actually lynches scum the next day, and I counter claim cop and get him lynched the next day.

I'll start trusting vic completely the minute he serves up the last confirmed scum. I believe his claim, but I'm not going to blindy trust him because of all the suspicion surrounding it..

[Vicious89x]

Why? Again, look no further then the zombie game. No kill after vicious revealed, he actually lynches scum the next day, and I counter claim cop and get him lynched the next day.

I'll start trusting vic completely the minute he serves up the last confirmed scum. I believe his claim, but I'm not going to blindy trust him because of all the suspicion surrounding it..

But the difference in that game was I was converted. That's why we were so willing to sacrifice Woody, 1 for 1 with an epic advantage with me being a then "vetted" finder.

Scum doesn't have that advantage this game unless I get converted... AGAIN.

[slats]

Can we drop the ****ing self vote. For the love of god, I'm human and was stressed out of my skull with tons of crap on my plate. Throw that and being grilled from second 1 and being a townie again got me pissed. Jesus.

Yeah, I don't know why you were so bent, though. You have a role. I could see being bent if you were a roleless townie every game. That would probably get old.

You were outed early when you were the cop last time, too. I think I want to play when you're scum. You're diatribe will be, "the one goddamn time I'm mafia I get lynched on the first day!"

[CTM]

Yup, I just mentioned that. I didn't think that part through.

I will be shocked if there is no counterclaim at this point. If Vicious is lying, the real cop obviously needs to come forward. And even if Vicious is telling the truth, we're basically in a position where we're begging the scum to fake reveal.

How?

And also, if vic is counter claimed, our real cop now has a bulleyes on his back, and the doctor, whose now protecting Vic or the counterclaimant, now stands the same odds of being nightkilled tonight as the "good" chance you guys are ascribing to the real cop.

In other words, if you want the real cop to counter claim cause he might very well be killed tonight without protection, you must trecognize that the same thing applies to the doctor. And if the doc dies, the real cop dies next, regardless of who it is..

[AVM]

Yeah, I don't know why you were so bent, though. You have a role. I could see being bent if you were a roleless townie every game. That would probably get old.

You were outed early when you were the cop last time, too. I think I want to play when you're scum. You're diatribe will be, "the one goddamn time I'm mafia I get lynched on the first day!"

[Vicious89x]

Yeah, I don't know why you were so bent, though. You have a role. I could see being bent if you were a roleless townie every game. That would probably get old.

You were outed early when you were the cop last time, too. I think I want to play when you're scum. You're diatribe will be, "the one goddamn time I'm mafia I get lynched on the first day!"

Nah, I'll be to freaking ecstatic to be one. I'll probably blow my load and get lynched asap lol.

No I mean I think CTM made that point but between all those things I was literally ready to take the ball and go home. I've chilled out over it and am just focusing on the game now.

[slats]

I will be shocked if there is no counterclaim at this point. If Vicious is lying, the real cop obviously needs to come forward. And even if Vicious is telling the truth, we're basically in a position where we're begging the scum to fake reveal.

It would be a bad play for scum to fake role reveal as the cop at this point. Why draw attention to yourself if you're successfully hiding in the shadows?

[CTM]

It would be a bad play for scum to fake role reveal as the cop at this point. Why draw attention to yourself if you're successfully hiding in the shadows?

Exactly.

And let me ask everyone this. If Vic is scum, and you are his team mates, would you be hoping the real cop counterclaimed him right now or hoping he wasn't counterclaimed?

Personally, I'd be hoping for a counterclaim so I'd have my man..