Lockout Analysis: Running Back

[flgreen]

Lockout analysis: Running back

June, 1, 2011

Jun 1

10:37

AM ET

By Rich Cimini

ESPNNewYork.com is providing a daily breakdown on how the lockout is affecting the individual position groups.

Position: Running back.

Depth chart: Shonn Greene, LaDainian Tomlinson, John Conner, Tony Richardson, Joe McKnight, Bilal Powell ®, Chris Jennings, Carlos Brown.

Not under contract: Richardson.

Player hurt most by the lockout: McKnight.

Player with most to gain: Tomlinson.

Analysis: More than most, this unit could be hit hard by the lockout. The reason is, you're talking about a handful of young players that could've really benefitted, mentally and physically, from a full offseason. McKnight, in particular, needed the time, considering his early-season struggles last season as a rookie. For all the promise he demonstrated as a rookie, Conner, projected as a the opening-day starter at fullback, also could've used all the time in the off-season program. The Jets have high hopes for Powell, a fourth-round pick, but he will be in a serious catch-up mode, severely diminishing his chances of making an impact.

Greene, the likely feature back, has dealt with weight issues in the past, and the Jets have to be a bit concerned about him working out on his own. Fortunately for the Jets, they have Tomlinson, a pro's pro who knows how to train and prepare himself for a season. The plan is to reduce his carries, making him more of a third-down back, but they might have to adjust if he's in the best shape among the backs. Richardson, heavily involved in the labor fight as a member of the players' executive committee, probably won't be re-signed.

[visajets]

I expect a big year from Joe McKnight. I know there are many doubters, but watch and see is all I can say.

[flgreen]

I expect a big year from Joe McKnight. I know there are many doubters, but watch and see is all I can say.

Kids certainly got the talent. He never fully showed it at USC, and certainly not last year. Lets see if he can get his head right

[Bleedin Green]

Kids certainly got the talent. He never fully showed it at USC, and certainly not last year. Lets see if he can get his head right

All I'll say is the way that he turned last season around gives a lot of reason for optimism. This was clearly one of those guys who always skated by on his raw ability, and the issue was always the amount of work and dedication put in. That was just made that much more blatantly obvious with his issues throughout last years offseason.

But with that said, for him to break through on special teams to the point where that is specifically getting him active on game day, meaning he's impressing Mike f'n Westhoff of all of the coaches on the team, that says a lot to me. I feel like there's no job in football that is more heavily weighted towards hard work and determination over physical skill than special teams and when he got out there, he was really exceptional at it too. After a rough start to the season on ST with the rotating mess of players trying to fill in for the guys the Jets lost, McKnight essentially made us all forget names like Wallace Wright. Then of course putting on a very impressive Week 17 rushing performance behind a second team OL was nice to see, even if it was against the freakin' Bills.

[The Crusher]

I expect a big year from Joe McKnight. I know there are many doubters, but watch and see is all I can say.

agreed, I know it was against Buffalo, but you had to like what you saw out of old pukey.

[visajets]

agreed, I know it was against Buffalo, but you had to like what you saw out of old pukey.

I dont care who it was against it was in an NFL game.

[jason423]

I actually think the back with the most to lose is Greene. The team clearly soured on him last year and the knock is that he has issues keeping his body in NFL shape. Losing an entire offseason of workouts is probably going to put him in worse shape. Running backs are a dime a dozen and the Jets drafted another mid round guy this year. JMO, but I think all 3 young guys are on equal footing and any one of them could get cut.

[visajets]

I actually think the back with the most to lose is Greene. The team clearly soured on him last year and the knock is that he has issues keeping his body in NFL shape. Losing an entire offseason of workouts is probably going to put him in worse shape. Running backs are a dime a dozen and the Jets drafted another mid round guy this year. JMO, but I think all 3 young guys are on equal footing and any one of them could get cut.

SG runs as a punisher. He never lays down and always takes the hit. Its his style. This guy is due for a breakout year.

[Bleedin Green]

I actually think the back with the most to lose is Greene. The team clearly soured on him last year and the knock is that he has issues keeping his body in NFL shape. Losing an entire offseason of workouts is probably going to put him in worse shape. Running backs are a dime a dozen and the Jets drafted another mid round guy this year. JMO, but I think all 3 young guys are on equal footing and any one of them could get cut.

This is an interesting point, and part of me is really starting to wonder if the drafting of Powell was actually with exactly the lockout in mind. If the Jets feel that he's the kind of player who they can plug in as a contributor from day one, he could be what they're betting on as their fallback option to make sure the running game is still going given Greene's health / shape issues, the mess with McKnight last year and LT's age and physical wear-down. Outside of a knowledge of the playbook, it's a very real possibility he could end up outshining all of his fellow RBs. The biggest questions would probably be blocking and receiving (in both his skill level and the complexity of learning those elements of the playbook), but there's no doubt LT will be the primary third down option regardless. I would agree Greene has the most to lose, and I would say Powell potentially the most to gain. If things break right for him, a guy who looked like he would be buried in a crowded backfield could emerge as an early contributor.

[jason423]

This is an interesting point, and part of me is really starting to wonder if the drafting of Powell was actually with exactly the lockout in mind. If the Jets feel that he's the kind of player who they can plug in as a contributor from day one, he could be what they're betting on as their fallback option to make sure the running game is still going given Greene's health / shape issues, the mess with McKnight last year and LT's age and physical wear-down. Outside of a knowledge of the playbook, it's a very real possibility he could end up outshining all of his fellow RBs. The biggest questions would probably be blocking and receiving (in both his skill level and the complexity of learning those elements of the playbook), but there's no doubt LT will be the primary third down option regardless. I would agree Greene has the most to lose, and I would say Powell potentially the most to gain. If things break right for him, a guy who looked like he would be buried in a crowded backfield could emerge as an early contributor.

Powell is essentially the same type of player as Greene. Minimal production early in college. Had a break out season prior to the draft. Both are physical runners. Both have some health concerns. Neither is very adept at protecting the QB. Neither factors much into the passing game. I just dont see how anyone looking at that pick can say that Powell was selected to show the frustration with McKnight or put McKnight on notice. They are vastly different players. If the Jets think McKnight cant play its Tomlinson that will get more downs (right now I would think the Jets envision something like a 3/1 series split in favor of LT over McKnight at the start of the year). Powell is there to take Greene's spot if Greene goes down or is ineffective. Hopefully some of the vets have reached out to him and gotten him a playbook to look at. You would almost think at this stage LT would be happy to be a mentor, especially since the Jets kept Richardson around for all these years because of his leadership on the sidelines and locker room. I dont think lending a helping hand to those other 3 really puts his job in danger.

[BroadwayJ667]

Cimini's genius strikes again. Thing is that running backs need the least amount of work. More or less the thing they need is to get the timing down with the linemen and when to hit the hole.

The thing that they need practice with is blocking.

[slats]

This is an interesting point, and part of me is really starting to wonder if the drafting of Powell was actually with exactly the lockout in mind. If the Jets feel that he's the kind of player who they can plug in as a contributor from day one, he could be what they're betting on as their fallback option to make sure the running game is still going given Greene's health / shape issues, the mess with McKnight last year and LT's age and physical wear-down. Outside of a knowledge of the playbook, it's a very real possibility he could end up outshining all of his fellow RBs. The biggest questions would probably be blocking and receiving (in both his skill level and the complexity of learning those elements of the playbook), but there's no doubt LT will be the primary third down option regardless. I would agree Greene has the most to lose, and I would say Powell potentially the most to gain. If things break right for him, a guy who looked like he would be buried in a crowded backfield could emerge as an early contributor.

I think Powell is a better natural receiver than Greene and more of a potential every down back - even though the Jets appear to be a team committed to the committee approach.

I said all this when the Jets drafted Powell. It's been called LT insurance, or a referendum on McKnight, but I think Shonn Greene has been inconsistent at best - and has certainly failed to live up to the hype the team created when they traded three picks to move up to draft him. That said, I think the Jets fully intend to carry four RB's and John Conner this year, with 2012 being a different story.

I think the back with the most to lose -in an odd way- is LT. If Greene can't keep himself in shape, I think LT could be pressed into more early duty - and as a result hit the wall early again. Last year he had a chip on his shoulder. I don't think he has the same motivation this year, but who knows? Still, he -and the team- would be a lot better off if they could limit his carries and keep him strong for the late/post season. Maybe that's where Powell fits in. Unfortunately, lack of offseason work is really going to hurt his chances.

I think that McKnight is more of LT's replacement as a 3rd down style back, and that Powell is more likely to fill in on first and second down if Greene isn't getting it done.

[Jetsfan80]

Cimini's genius strikes again. Thing is that running backs need the least amount of work. More or less the thing they need is to get the timing down with the linemen and when to hit the hole.

The thing that they need practice with is blocking.

Callahan's zone blocking system requires a LOT of work with the RB's and OL together. I think this hurts Powell the most.

[Bleedin Green]

I think Powell is a better natural receiver than Greene and more of a potential every down back - even though the Jets appear to be a team committed to the committee approach.

I said all this when the Jets drafted Powell. It's been called LT insurance, or a referendum on McKnight, but I think Shonn Greene has been inconsistent at best - and has certainly failed to live up to the hype the team created when they traded three picks to move up to draft him. That said, I think the Jets fully intend to carry four RB's and John Conner this year, with 2012 being a different story.

I think the back with the most to lose -in an odd way- is LT. If Greene can't keep himself in shape, I think LT could be pressed into more early duty - and as a result hit the wall early again. Last year he had a chip on his shoulder. I don't think he has the same motivation this year, but who knows? Still, he -and the team- would be a lot better off if they could limit his carries and keep him strong for the late/post season. Maybe that's where Powell fits in. Unfortunately, lack of offseason work is really going to hurt his chances.

I think that McKnight is more of LT's replacement as a 3rd down style back, and that Powell is more likely to fill in on first and second down if Greene isn't getting it done.

Good points, and I absolutely fully expect the Jets to carry all 4 RBs. From a roster standpoint, the Jets probably see it as a non-issue as Powell will simply be taking TRich's roster spot, and the team will still be carrying 5 RBs, which didn't seem to cause any issues last year. And to your point, dependent on the opponent and subsequent gameplan, I wouldn't even be too shocked to see all 4 make it active on some game days, with Powell spelling Greene on first and second down and McKnight spelling LT on 3rd down (barring any of these players overtaking one another once an offseason program actually begins).

Not only that, I think it's also a very real possibility that as long as he shows up committed and in shape, McKnight will be considered more than just another RB and will this year end up taking over the offensive jobs previously held by Brad Smith and Leon Washington, with everything from running the Seminole/TigerCat/Wildcat to being a regular receiver out of the backfield and even lining up at WR (especially if the Jets lose Edwards and/or Holmes).