Approaching the NFL Draft with a Different, and Unique Strategy

[Seth]

By Seth.P on Jan 28 2015, 2:40p 2 

 

There are two primary drafting philosophies spewed, and argued among fans; a draft the best player available method, or drafting by a positional need basis. Each philosophy contains its own merits, and consequences. For instance, when follow the former of the two; a franchise is guaranteed to draft a player each round with an appropriate grade for that selection (essentially they will never reach for a specific player). However, the consequence can be found in perhaps over-drafting or adding too much depth into a specific position, which does not correct the weakness a team had prior to entering the draft. In contract, drafting by need eliminates the aforementioned consequence, as most holes a team may have contained prior to the draft, would now seemingly be fixed on the depth chart. Nonetheless, there is a drawback, and that can be reaching for players of lesser caliber, simply because of their position. Consequently, these lesser talented players can prove to be futile, and the sole mission of attempting to fill these gaps on your team still remain. Of course, both strategies have been used in the past successfully by teams, so by no means are they illogical methods of drafting.

 

I wish to propose a slightly different variant to drafting, one that accounts for the strongest position depth of any given draft class, while simultaneously factoring both need, and value. Let’s use the upcoming NFL draft as a prime example, and pretend we are General Manager Mike Maccagnan. The strongest position depth from my perspective this year, are running-backs, where I unquestionably believe a starting caliber player can be found as late as the fourth round. However, while we most certainly can use someone to fill the speedy running-back role (It is inevitable that Chris Johnsonwill be cut); I would not qualify the need as significant on this current squad. Therefore, regardless if there is an outstanding running-back I feel strongly about in an earlier round; I would believe it is wiser to draft the best player available from one of the multitude of weaknesses we currently possess. Though I may lose the cherished running-back; the depth at the position is so great that I can still snag someone of starting quality in the fourth round or so, simply due to the deep availability of that position. By doing this, I draft a quality player regardless

if it coincidentally fills a major need, and I still cash-in on an additional quality player late (in this instance the running-back), due to waiting for the position depth to fall into one of our selections.

 

No strategy is perfect, and readers may allude to specific weakness; allow me to address some potential ones, and offer an appropriate response:

 

Stop complicating things, simply draft the player you feel most strongly about:Granted, but why settle for one potentially good player, when you may garner two? There is always a chance that one specific player proves to be unsuccessful, and instead of potentially being only correct on one of two players; you are now instead completely shutout. Waiting for the depth to fall into your lap, grants you more opportunities to successfully draft additional quality players earlier, while simultaneously adding a player from the strongest position group later.

 

You can bust on the additional selections, and that player of the greatest positional strength you wanted in an earlier round, becomes a star: True, but this applies to any draft strategy, because any given player can become a bust. This weakness is purely using a hindsight perspective, and not focusing on the present situation. No one can predict the future; I can assure you of this.

 

Just simply trade down, and acquire more opportunities to draft successful players in that form: Trading down always sounds great in theory, but it takes a perfect situation, and two teams willing to pull the trigger. This does not tend to occur often, as both teams are attempting to squeeze the most they possibly can from the opposite team. When neither can accomplish this, they do not feel comfortable pulling the trigger on a trade, hence, they simply settle for the position they are locked into. With my strategy, you do not have to rely on an opposing team who is desperate to move up.

 

This is complicated, and crazy; go away: Perhaps, but I am thinking outside the box, and sometimes unorthodox approaches are useful in the NFL. If there is any team recently who needs to operate the draft differently; it is the New York Jets.

 

In conclusion, what I have presented is most likely not unheard of, but is rarely spoken about. Granted, it is complicated, and can obviously blow-up in a general manager’s face, but so can any specific draft strategy. Regardless, I am intrigued to see how Maccagnan operates the draft this season, and whether he will tap into the running-back position (or any deep position in the future) with a later selection, simply due to its great depth.

 

[Joe W. Namath]

We need playmakers on offense and a pass rushing olb on defense. That is where our focus should be.

[LIJetsFan]

If you don't get a starter / impact player in rounds one and two your draft is a failure. Rather than worry about BPA or needs based BPA I think you should be searching the board in each round for the player you think has the highest percent chance of being an immediate starter/impact player.

You don't take a QB for example who you estimate as a 40%er when there is say an OL on the board who you see as a 90%er. You don't take a 40%er WR in the 4th round when there is a 55%er FS sitting there, etc.

So for example you're unlikely to pick a center or left tackle because of the very small chance they will beat out the guys currently in those positions.

[ComfortablyNumb]

Thanks for the effort and well thought out post OP but I'm completely lost. Which method are you proposing?

[Integrity28]

Sounds like what Idzik did with WR last year. Every is happy we got Shaq Ecans and not any of the approx 10 rookie WRs that showed instant star power

[Integrity28]

With this much cap, we can probably fill every weak spot with veterans and draft for the future.

[Sperm Edwards]

So take the BPA at a position of need while simultaneously monitoring the depth of that position in the draft. This is new, "outside the box" thinking? It sounds like the exact strategy used for our 2014 draft:

• Needs at WR, CB, S, TE, OG, OLB, ILB/OLB depth, add'l CB depth, QB, PR (pick your own order of need).
• Draft is deepest at WR and CB (and I guess QB) so no need to jump on those positions early.
• Acquire picks to increase opportunities for success (we already had a lot of picks, so we did the equivalent of trading down by not trading up and/or not trading for future picks).

Seems to have worked out great. At least we got a TE and hopefully a SS. Or in other words, our 2 highest picks will be our 2 best players taken. Stra-jed-ee. lol

Here's my out of the box plan for a successful draft: don't draft busts. Also draft players that mature into starters quickly at positions of need, or as primary backups who see action at positions we presently have a starter but whose contract is coming up after the season. Best. Plan. Ever.

[Integrity28]

Draft players that don't suck.

[Sperm Edwards]

Draft players that don't suck.

 

Hey that was my plan. That's mine. I came up with that.

[Integrity28]

Hey that was my plan. That's mine. I came up with that.

I owe several patents and trademarks. Talk to my lawyer.

[Sperm Edwards]

I owe several patents and trademarks. Talk to my lawyer.

 

Ooh. A lawyer. Outside the box thinking on your part.

[jamesr]

 

If there is any team recently who needs to operate the draft differently; it is the New York Jets.

 

 

100% FALSE.

 

Different is not what we need. What we need is to EXECUTE better.

 

As mentioned above, we followed a strategy like this in 2014 (picked the best of a shallow group early - S, TE - and addressed the deeper positions (WR) later. However, lack of EXECUTION meant we picked 3 WR, who I believe contributed ZERO catches in 2014, while players who we COULD HAVE drafted at those same spots provided great production for their teams.

 

Strategy good, execution bad. GM fired.

[Integrity28]

Ooh. A lawyer. Outside the box thinking on your part.

There's the box over here, then waaaaaayyyyyyy over there is me.

[slats]

Sounds like what Idzik did with WR last year. Every is happy we got Shaq Ecans and not any of the approx 10 rookie WRs that showed instant star power

I was gonna say the same thing.

The Jets roster is so weak that a strict BAP strategy -one that factors in the value of the player's position- would be the most potentially successful route. Taking positional value into consideration, the RB in the OP's post wouldn't be taken until the fourth round, anyway. There's a long offseason before the draft to address needs, and the Jets have a ton of money available to do just that. Fill needs in free agency, take the BAP in the draft.