The Smiley Killer (Crazy Cops) Game 2 Thread.

[Doggin94it]

Yeah, I'm still not 100% on how it guarentees victory, as I get the impression that they are both going to come back saying innocent.

That said, if I get a guilty on myself, then it is shutout.

Doggin, could you please explain how we know who's lying between me, you, slats if all 3 of us get innocents on me?

Lynching me would prove I'm innocent, and vindicate shutout, who would be NK'd.

Then, we'd be in day 3, with slats, doggin, and DanX, with Dan ultimately needing to make the decision between the two.

What am I missing?

If slats and I are the real and na

[JustInFudge]

If I were the SK, I would kill Dan X.

[Doggin94it]

I like this plan very much and agree it seems like our best option right now, but is it definitely an automatic victory for the town?

Here's a scenario that could happen. If EY is sane/naive, all three of you will claim to get innocent results on him. We lynch EY, he's innocent (confirming he was sane/naive), and now we're left choosing between Slats and Doggin. I fear we could come down to that decision with only one other player alive, if the SK chooses correctly both nights.

If all 3 of us come back with innocents on EY, we don't lynch him, because he's a confirmed innocent. We lynch me and slats, in whatever order you want

[Doggin94it]

If I were the SK, I would kill Dan X.

Doesn't matter if he does, the serial still loses. In a cab back to the office now, will have a full list of possibilities soon.

[ZachEY]

If slats and I are the real and na

[Jets Voice of Reason]

purely to make this interesting I am going to disallow no lynch as an option. Wink wink town would have a clear path to victory but I just want to give our sk a chance here. I hope you guys understand.

[Doggin94it]

Ok, here are the scenarios if EY, Slats and I investigate EY, and EY survives the night:

Scenario 1 - EY gets a guilty on himself:

EY cannot be the sane cop or naive cop. He cannot be paranoid, because he got a innocent on Shutout. Thus, either EY is the insane cop and Shutout is the SK, or EY is a liar and the SK.

At this point, the results of any other investigations are irrelevant. Since either EY or Shutout must be the SK, we lynch Shutout Day 2, and if necessary EY Day 3, and the town wins

Scenario 2 - EY gets an innocent on himself, Slats and I get innocents on EY:

One of the 3 of us must be lying, since only 2 cops can get innocents on an innocent player - the sane cop, and the naive cop. It cannot be EY; he would only lie if he's the SK, and we've already established that if EY is the SK, one of Slats or Doggin is the sane cop. Since one of us is the sane cop, if EY was the SK, one of us would have gotten a guilty result. Therefore, either Doggin or Slats must be lying about their result, and one of the 2 must be the SK

At this point, the results of other investigations are irrelevant. We lynch me Day 2, Slats Day 3, and the town wins on Day 3.

Scenario 3 - EY gets an innocent on himself, Doggin gets an innocent on EY, and Slats gets a guilty on EY:

One of EY and Slats must be lying. By claiming to have investigated ourselves and found a guilty, we've identified ourselves as either the sane or naive cops. Since there are 3 claimants for 2 roles, 1 of us must be lying.

By claiming to get a guilty on EY, Slats is claiming that he is the sane cop (since he cannot be naive, paranoid or insane), and EY is the SK (and liar). If EY is innocent, then Slats is the liar, and therefore the SK.

At this point, we lynch Slats Day 2, and (if necessary) EY Day 3, and the town wins.

Scenario 4 - EY gets an innocent on himself, Slats gets an innocent on EY, and Doggin gets a guilty on EY:

Same deductions as above, just switch me for Slats

At this point, we lynch me Day 2, and EY Day 3, and the town wins on Day 3.

In all scenarios, as long as EY, Slats and I are alive, there will only be two suspects, who we can lynch over the next two days, and the town can't lose.

Now, what if one of Slats or I get NK'd?

Well, if EY gets a guilty on himself, the deductions are the same - either he or Shutout is the SK, we have 2 suspects and 2 lynches left. Town wins.

If EY gets an innocent on himself, then - again - we have 3 people claiming to be the Naive/Sane cops, and only 2 can be telling the truth. Since the SK will have helpfully NK'd one of the claimants, only 2 will be alive. Again, we have 2 suspects and 2 lynches left. Town wins.

With 2 lynches left in the game, the town cannot lose if we follow these steps:

1) EY self-investigates

2) Dan protects EY

3) Slats and I both investigate EY

And with that explanation, I'm going to:

vote: No Lynch

Lets go to night and win the game. The only way we lose is if Dan doesn't protect EY - since the plan guarantees a town win, if any of the 3 cops don't follow the plan, we lynch them as the SK. That goes for me too, but will be unnecessary, since I'll be investigating EY.

Dan, you on board?

[Doggin94it]

purely to make this interesting I am going to disallow no lynch as an option. Wink wink town would have a clear path to victory but I just want to give our sk a chance here. I hope you guys understand.

OMGUS - especially since now the doctor protection screwed the town (since instead of reaching a 3 player endgame with the doc as a surviving confirmed innocent, we'll be looking at a 4 player endgame with only 1 confirmed innocent)

OK, Dan, back to protecting yourself. We'll have at least 2 confirmed innocents for tomorrow no matter what (if EY gets an innocent, shutout is cleared, and if he gets a guilty, then Slats and I are cleared). If EY dies, then we'll still have you and JiF.

And here I was arranging every scenario to keep Yellin alive for Day 3 so he could last to endgame even as the Serial after being NK'd before Day 1 last time.

[ZachEY]

With the No Lynch option out of play.

vote slats, ftw.

[Doggin94it]

So, we need to take down 1 of the 4 suspects. I should be confirmed as an innocent now, since JVoR has made clear that my plan would, in fact, have won the game for the town. Based on his insistance that DanX protect himself instead of EY, back when protecting EY would have won us the game:

vote: Slats

[Doggin94it]

OMGUS - especially since now the doctor protection screwed the town (since instead of reaching a 3 player endgame with the doc as a surviving confirmed innocent, we'll be looking at a 4 player endgame with only 1 confirmed innocent)

OK, Dan, back to protecting yourself. We'll have at least 2 confirmed innocents for tomorrow no matter what (if EY gets an innocent, shutout is cleared, and if he gets a guilty, then Slats and I are cleared). If EY dies, then we'll still have you and JiF.

And here I was arranging every scenario to keep Yellin alive for Day 3 so he could last to endgame even as the Serial after being NK'd before Day 1 last time.

OK, actually we're looking at a 4 player endgame with 2 confirmed innocents - still, not good for the town.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

I will allow a no lynch in a mylo but only then.

[Doggin94it]

I will allow a no lynch in a mylo but only then.

mylo?

[shutout]

The most likely scenario in my opinion is

Dan x- confirmed doc

JiF- confirmed paranoid/insane

Shutout- paranoid/insane/sk (that last one is for the benefit of you guys, I know I'm not the SK)

Doggin-naive/real (all but confirmed due to no no lynch?)

EY- Naive/real/sk (I obviously don't believe him to be the insane cop)

Slats- naive/real/sk

Seeing as EY/Doggin are comfortable enough voting for Slats, I think we should as we've all but got the SK trapped at this point. Even with no lynch of the table its still a longshot for the SK to do any better than to get to endgame due to there being 4 obvious suspects.

Vote: Slats

[Doggin94it]

mylo?

OK, found it on mafiascum. So, you'll allow no-lynch tomorrow but not today? OK.

Dan, consider protecting a cop, not yourself, so we can get multiple investigations out of people

[Jets Voice of Reason]

mylo?

misslynch and lose. Basically at 4 player end game I will allow the no lynch if you guys go that route. The idea isn't to stack I just want you guys to be challenged.

[shutout]

The most likely scenario in my opinion is

Dan x- confirmed doc

JiF- confirmed paranoid/insane

Shutout- paranoid/insane/sk (that last one is for the benefit of you guys, I know I'm not the SK)

Doggin-naive/real (all but confirmed due to no no lynch?)

EY- Naive/real/sk (I obviously don't believe him to be the insane cop)

Slats- naive/real/sk

Seeing as EY/Doggin are comfortable enough voting for Slats, I think we should as we've all but got the SK trapped at this point. Even with no lynch of the table its still a longshot for the SK to do any better than to get to endgame due to there being 4 obvious suspects.

Vote: Slats

To expand on this point: EY and Doggin clearly have experience with going by the numbers, so even if one of them turns up SK the other has still run through multiple scenarios and feels that even if we do pick wrong on the first day, we can still get the other tomorrow and win. Again for me at this point I believe its either Slats or EY, so I'm confident that if we get it wrong day 1, we'll get em on day 2.

[ZachEY]

Seems like my idea of investigating someone other than myself works out. Some combination is probably best.

[ZachEY]

To expand on this point: EY and Doggin clearly have experience with going by the numbers, so even if one of them turns up SK the other has still run through multiple scenarios and feels that even if we do pick wrong on the first day, we can still get the other tomorrow and win. Again for me at this point I believe its either Slats or EY, so I'm confident that if we get it wrong day 1, we'll get em on day 2.

Doggin, if I'm not mistaken, would it make sense, even with slats gone (if we're wrong) wouldn't it make sense to keep me alive anyway, so I can investigate myself, you can investigate me, and I can either clear or convict shutout.

Basically, meaning, I clear shutout, by investigating myself, and we kill you. If I'm lying, town kills me.

I catch shutout, we lynch him, if I'm lying, we lynch me next day.

[Doggin94it]

Doggin, if I'm not mistaken, would it make sense, even with slats gone (if we're wrong) wouldn't it make sense to keep me alive anyway, so I can investigate myself, you can investigate me, and I can either clear or convict shutout.

Basically, meaning, I clear shutout, by investigating myself, and we kill you. If I'm lying, town kills me.

I catch shutout, we lynch him, if I'm lying, we lynch me next day.

Problem is, by lynching today, we only have one lynch left.

There's no more "if I'm lying, lynch me the next day"

[shutout]

Problem is, by lynching today, we only have one lynch left.

There's no more "if I'm lying, lynch me the next day"

Correct me if I'm wrong Doggin, but even in the worst case scenario of lynching innocent today and tomorrow the SK would still have to deal with a WIFOM vs Dan X during that night phase as after the lynch tomorrow that would hypothetically leave 2 innocents vs SK?

[Dan.]

JVoR, you do suck. Go make love to a treadmill and then come back and give us our win.

I will most likely protect a cop tonight.

Are we waiting for Slats to come back and argue for us not to lynch him, or are the rules different for "Fast Mafia"?

Who are Shutout and JiF investigating tonight?

[shutout]

JVoR, you do suck. Go make love to a treadmill and then come back and give us our win.

I will most likely protect a cop tonight.

Are we waiting for Slats to come back and argue for us not to lynch him, or are the rules different for "Fast Mafia"?

Who are Shutout and JiF investigating tonight?

I had commented on this earlier, and while I personally don't know who exactly we should be investigating I do think we should be looking at the other cop claimants. One of us is the paranoid cop and will get a guilty no matter what but the other is the insane cop and if we look at the right "cop" we'll get an innocent back and, whaddya know, we've got our SK.

[Doggin94it]

Correct me if I'm wrong Doggin, but even in the worst case scenario of lynching innocent today and tomorrow the SK would still have to deal with a WIFOM vs Dan X during that night phase as after the lynch tomorrow that would hypothetically leave 2 innocents vs SK?

Not a Wifom unless its Dan and a confirmed innocent - which Dan just destroyed any hope of by proclaiming he would protect a cop

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Vote Count

Slats (3) ET, Doggin94it, Shutout

With 6 people remaining, it takes 4 to lynch.

[slats]

Give me a minute, men. I just got in from the hospital. You're about to lynch a cop, so make sure you have all your ducks in a row for that scenario.

[slats]

I'll tell you what, I've got a lot of siht going on right now at home, and my head really probably isn't in this game as much as I'd like. Go ahead with your lynch, you'll find that I'm a cop. Keep that in mind that I got an innocent on myself, and therefore have to be either the naive or sane cop. So if two people are still jockeying for those two roles after I'm gone, one of them is the SK.

Dan, I still think that the coin flip for you and JiF is the best course of action. You lynch me, then you screw up his chances of taking out another confirmed innocent. One of EY and Doggin is leading you down a path. If I was the SK, I'd take you out and leave as many alternative SK's alive as possible if I knew you weren't going to protect yourself - that's why I keep suggesting the coin flip.

Don't understand why EY's so convinced that I'm scum at all. I think I've been pure town from the get go. But once my death scene is played out, you can figure out what you want to do about that, too.

With that, do what you will.

[slats]

Vote Count

Slats (3) ET, Doggin94it, Shutout

With 6 people remaining, it takes 4 to lynch.

That's a pretty cool list of voters, too, man. One of them is undoubtedly the SK. Either of you confirmed innocents follow thru on this lynch, at least you'll know that.

I suspect Doggin the least, being that he was really looking to go with his no lynch plan.

EY's pretty damn happy to lynch me, which never sits well with me being that I'm innocent in every game I play of mafia (whaaaaah! ), so he'd be #2 on my personal list. Shutout's been pretty quiet, but putting up no resistance to getting a lynch on today, either.

Coin flip, Dan, I'm telling you. Either make the SK take a 50/50 shot to get a confirmed innocent, or make him take out one of the two other remaining suspects.

The one thing about Doggin that troubles me the most is that he keeps telling you to specifically protect a single player. First EY, now yourself. That leaves the SK wide open to take out one of you and JiF, you don't want that.

[Dan.]

I'll tell you what, I've got a lot of siht going on right now at home, and my head really probably isn't in this game as much as I'd like. Go ahead with your lynch, you'll find that I'm a cop. Keep that in mind that I got an innocent on myself, and therefore have to be either the naive or sane cop. So if two people are still jockeying for those two roles after I'm gone, one of them is the SK.

Dan, I still think that the coin flip for you and JiF is the best course of action. You lynch me, then you screw up his chances of taking out another confirmed innocent. One of EY and Doggin is leading you down a path. If I was the SK, I'd take you out and leave as many alternative SK's alive as possible if I knew you weren't going to protect yourself - that's why I keep suggesting the coin flip.

Don't understand why EY's so convinced that I'm scum at all. I think I've been pure town from the get go. But once my death scene is played out, you can figure out what you want to do about that, too.

With that, do what you will.

Before I vote for Slats, can we coordinate who Shutout and JiF will investigate if he flips innocent? I'd like to see Shutout investigate EY and maybe have JiF look at Shutout? Or maybe someone else should look at Doggin, although of the three he's looking the most innocent to me.

I will consider protecting myself, but to be honest, I think it's more helpful to save any cops I can early on, so we have a better chance of figuring out whose role is what.

[shutout]

Before I vote for Slats, can we coordinate who Shutout and JiF will investigate if he flips innocent? I'd like to see Shutout investigate EY and maybe have JiF look at Shutout? Or maybe someone else should look at Doggin, although of the three he's looking the most innocent to me.

I will consider protecting myself, but to be honest, I think it's more helpful to save any cops I can early on, so we have a better chance of figuring out whose role is what.

I'd said all along I'd look at one of the 3 of us (already investigated doggin). I had been going back and forth between myself and Slats, but if we're gonna lynch Slats and on the off-chance he turns up innocent, I'll look at EY.

[slats]

The most likely scenario in my opinion is

Dan x- confirmed doc

JiF- confirmed paranoid/insane

Shutout- paranoid/insane/sk (that last one is for the benefit of you guys, I know I'm not the SK)

Doggin-naive/real (all but confirmed due to no no lynch?)

EY- Naive/real/sk (I obviously don't believe him to be the insane cop)

Slats- naive/real/sk

Seeing as EY/Doggin are comfortable enough voting for Slats, I think we should as we've all but got the SK trapped at this point. Even with no lynch of the table its still a longshot for the SK to do any better than to get to endgame due to there being 4 obvious suspects.

Vote: Slats

Yeah, but EY could be the insane cop. It's as likely as anything else. You'd love to pit him against Doggin and I vying for naive/sane, because that would make one of us three the SK. From the other direction, with EY vying for paranoid/insane along with you and a confirmed paranoid/insane, your odds look a lot worse. All of a sudden you're not lining up for the last open role anymore.

Seeing as EY/Doggin are comfortable enough voting for Slats, I think we should as we've all but got the SK trapped at this point.

What a scumdog comment that is. Let me get a vote in here in case you guys wake up and decide to move in a different direction.

vote: shutout

[Dan.]

I'd said all along I'd look at one of the 3 of us (already investigated doggin). I had been going back and forth between myself and Slats, but if we're gonna lynch Slats and on the off-chance he turns up innocent, I'll look at EY.

It would be a waste for you to investigate yourself because if you are innocent, you'll come up guilty to yourself regardless of whether you're insane or paranoid.

You've already looked at Doggin, so that leaves EY as the only chance you have of coming up with an innocent result on someone (as the insane cop).

The same reasoning goes for JiF, but I guess I don't really care who he investigates as long as it's not himself.

[Dan.]

Yeah, but EY could be the insane cop. It's as likely as anything else. You'd love to pit him against Doggin and I vying for naive/sane, because that would make one of us three the SK. From the other direction, with EY vying for paranoid/insane along with you and a confirmed paranoid/insane, your odds look a lot worse. All of a sudden you're not lining up for the last open role anymore.

I'm suspicious of Shutout, too, but right now I don't see the case against him as any stronger than the case against you. And I know that at least two other innocent cops prefer to lynch you. So at the very least, this helps clear their minds and hopefully focus on the right person if you flip innocent.

Vote: Slats

[slats]

I'm suspicious of Shutout, too, but right now I don't see the case against him as any stronger than the case against you. And I know that at least two other innocent cops prefer to lynch you. So at the very least, this helps clear their minds and hopefully focus on the right person if you flip innocent.

Vote: Slats

Coin flip, Dan. Coin flip. Don't let these guys talk you into leaving a clean shot on any confirmed innocent if you can help it.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Final Vote Count

Slats (4) EY, Doggin94it, Shutout, Dan X