Wide Receivers: Alternatives Analysis

[Mr. Rogers]

Firstly, shout-out @32EBoozer, I see you've already made a topic in this vein but I wanted to start a wider discussion. I am lazy so I will refer readers to your thread for trade ups.

Brevity is not my strong suit, and the obvious conclusion of this post is that the Jets should draft a WR. I will admit I'm just re-inventing the wheel here. But it's worth looking at all options, so please bear with me as we take a look at each of the following:

JETS ALTERNATIVES AT WR:

• do nothing (current group)

• Trade for a Vet

• Veteran Free agents

• Trade up for a WR day 2

• Sit pat at Round 3, pick 8

 

Option 1: Do Nothing

While this alternative is unlikely given that JD and the Jets are in "win now and save your job" mode, it's not out of the question. The Jets have 3 UDFA as WR4-6 on the depth chart, Lazard at 3 coming off an atrocious season, and Mike Williams at 2 fresh off an ACL tear. Some level of insurance is almost definitely warranted, but Aaron Rodgers has expressed confidence in the players we have rostered, including Brownlee, Gipson and Lazard. If he is as influential on personnel decisions as some here speculate, there is the small chance he is telling JD to build out the rest of the team, bring in some more UDFA WR and let him elevate this group. If injuries didn't exist this alternative might be viable, but it's safe to assume at least 1 contingency player is inbound, if not more.

Option 2: Veteran Trades

It's fun to speculate about adding guys like Aiyuk, Higgins or Courtland Sutton. JD has attempted to bring in Tyreek Hill previously and supposedly Jerry Jeudy (ew) this off season, so the prospect of a trade cannot be overlooked. However, as most know, the obvious limiting factor with this is current and future cap space. The Jets don't even have enough cap to sign their rookies at the moment, and while we can expect them to free some, players like Higgins and Sutton are already on fairly expensive deals, and most WRs worth giving up serious assets for would need to be extended for the trade to really make sense. With a bonanza of extension candidates next off season including Garrett Wilson, sauce and JJ, this would be a tenuous if not impossible proposition. There is a possibility that the Jets bring in this type of player for a potential 1yr rental if an injury happens mid-season and they can find someone going out of contract who has already had much of their salary for the year paid (Keenan Allen?).

Another rarely discussed possibility is bringing in a younger/cheaper player who is under performing or limited in role. A player like Treylon Burks,  Donovan Peoples-Jones, or Zay Jones (if the jags eat a little salary) could fit the bill here. There is some intrigue here, but obviously most teams will want to keep their cheap depth, so the Jets would likely need to target an unsettled player. Some of these may emerge after the draft, so it's worth keeping an eye on. However, if the Jets are going to trade a pick for a player of this vein, it could be argued they should just draft at that spot instead. 

Option 3: Veteran FAs

Many free agents linger after the initial March wave. Given that Rodgers has a history of under-utilizing rookies, and that many remaining WRs will be signing 1 year "prove it" deals, this may be an underrated option for the Jets, particularly if the draft shakes out in a way where they miss their ideal WR targets. The cap space issue comes into play again here, and may limit their ability to sign the best of the remaining pool. However, it's not unreasonable to think the Jets can free up the $5m-$10m likely needed to sign one of these guys as well: 

If things linger long, they may come even cheaper. To me Tyler Boyd is of particular interest, but I heard he was too expensive for the Steelers. Even if the Jets do draft WR it may be worth kicking the tires of some of these talents. 

Option 4: Trade Up

Speculation about this has already begun, for good reason. As 32Eboozer posted, the following  are available:

As many have said, the Jets don't really have capital to move way up today. According to the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, even our 3rd and both 4ths gets us to around round 2, pick 25 (pick 55 overall). It is likely adonai Mitchell and 3-5 more of these players go before the Jets have a real shot, but the Jets may still have real looks at some players like Roman Wilson, Troy Franklin or Brendan Rice. Being realistic, the Jets don't have any players that are expendable and valuable in trades, so get used to one of these "lower" prospects as our guy. In general, there is still some good value on well polished slot receivers here, while the X guys like Tez Walker and Corley are more of project players that Rodgers may not prefer to use much. It will be interesting to see what direction JD goes here, if any. And finally:

Option 5: Stay Put at 72

The Jets need quality over quantity altogether, so the trade up feels more likely. However, if there's lower prospect(s) they like, they could choose to sit pat too, particularly if they like how the board is doing. A small move up in the 3rd is also a real possibility, as is drafting more than 1 WR or both drafting one and bringing in an FA. I won't say too much more here since the above pictures still spell out the main options here.

Summary: 

We armchair GMs can easily theorize that a trade up today feels like the best option. Given the Jets cap situation, extra day 3 capital, and win now mentality, I'd agree, BUT

A combination of the above strategies could absolutely be in play, though, especially if JD decides a prospect at another position is just too good to pass up (if Edgerrin Cooper is falling, for instance). Hopefully this reminds and reassures everyone that even if you wanted a weapon yesterday or today, JD has a lot of ways to improve this WR corp. Don't get too caught up in the couple guys we like here day 2. Have fun tonight!

[Claymation]

Odel will get signed for about 3 million

[Mr. Rogers]

6 minutes ago, Claymation said:

Odel will get signed for about 3 million

Might not be a bad option for us then? Injuries aside, he is probably more useful this year than a Tez Walker would be in Aaron rodgers eyes. 

Edit: we could do both, of course, probably the ideal option

[Claymation]

I would still draft a WR in the 3rd, but Odel and Aaron have made it public they would like to play on the same team.

[slats]

12 minutes ago, Mr. Rogers said:

Being realistic, the Jets don't have any players that are expendable and valuable in trades, so get used to one of these "lower" prospects as our guy.

JFM could be that chip. 

[ARodJetsFan]

35 minutes ago, slats said:

JFM could be that chip. 

I think that's pretty unlikely.

Nothing's impossible, but I doubt it.

[Barry McCockinner]

obj is washed

[Mr. Rogers]

36 minutes ago, slats said:

JFM could be that chip. 

 

2 minutes ago, ARodJetsFan said:

I think that's pretty unlikely.

I don't think JFM is likely either. While he's shown to be a good starter in the past for the Jets, he's been a depth piece these last couple years and his production has been nowhere near his current price tag.

The solution could be a salary split, but I think mid-draft teams aren't going to be looking to add significant salary hits from mid tier players when it's still possible they could draft their own JFM. If he gets moved it'll be after the draft, IMO, when a team still has a need.

[Gastineau Lives]

That third option is like sleeping in your clothes in a Motel 6. Beats being homeless, but you're still gonna look like sh*t in the morning.

[slats]

6 minutes ago, ARodJetsFan said:

I think that's pretty unlikely.

Nothing's impossible, but I doubt it.

Posted this this morning in another thread regarding trading JFM: 

Quote

I am also pushing this theory, lol. The team drafted McDonald last year and traded for Reddick this year. Reddick moves him inside in the starting lineup -if he’s still in the starting lineup- and the Jets still owe him $27M over the next two years with just $3M guaranteed. If Douglas can’t move him, he’ll almost certainly look to get him to take a haircut. 
 
If he wants to get back into the second round without spending future picks (again!), that’s a solid way to do it. 

Something has to give with JFM, imho. Trading him, I believe, has to be an option. I’m pretty confident that they’ve already had talks about that haircut. 

[Jetfuel66]

I'm not thrilled about it, but I have a feeling that OBJ is gonna be on this team.

If they have talked with him I think they will stay put and still draft a receiver at 72. If not they will trade up IMHO.

[Beerfish]

The Jets should be drafting TWO Wr's in this draft.

As well as the guys mentioned in the original post there are a lot of well worth it later round picks such as:

Jamari Thrash

Ainias Smith

Jacob Cowing

Anthony Gould

Ryan Flournoy

Taj Washington

Douglas needs to pick to the strength of the draft and take two Receivers and one more olineman in this draft.

You help insulate vs guys that do not work out (Mims, Elijah Moore) by double dipping.

A team like the packers are a good example, they have used at least couple picks per draft at wr and now they have a young deep, talented wr room.

 

 

[Scott Dierking]

Draft me some Malachi Corley. 

[C Mart]

23 minutes ago, slats said:

Posted this this morning in another thread regarding trading JFM: 

Something has to give with JFM, imho. Trading him, I believe, has to be an option. I’m pretty confident that they’ve already had talks about that haircut. 

I keep going back to his tweet from last night. It might not mean a thing or he knows something is up and possible.

 

John Franklin-Myers @J_FranklinMyers

15h

Life’s a trampoline, I’m gone bounce back regardless.

[Mr. Rogers]

24 minutes ago, Jetfuel66 said:

I'm not thrilled about it, but I have a feeling that OBJ is gonna be on this team.

If they have talked with him I think they will stay put and still draft a receiver at 72. If not they will trade up IMHO.

I'm not sure about OBJ one way or the other, but I could see them signing him and still moving up if they like a WR and fear someone will take him. 

They have all that extra day 3 "ammunition" as JD said, and don't have that many depth needs. You may be right, but I think either option is viable even if we do bring OBJ

[C Mart]

15 minutes ago, C Mart said:

I keep going back to his tweet from last night. It might not mean a thing or he knows something is up and possible.

 

John Franklin-Myers @J_FranklinMyers

15h

Life’s a trampoline, I’m gone bounce back regardless.

Add to this...He currently has the 3rd highest cap hit per OTC.  He's currently counting $16m per OTC.  We all know the Jets need to create cap room and alot of it.

A trade pre-June 1 creates $7m in cap space carrying $9m in dead cap. A trade post-June 1. creates $14m in cap space carrying $2.5m in dead cap.

A cut pre-June 1 creates $4m in cap space carrying $12m in dead cap. So that's not happening.  A cut post-June 1. creates $10.7m in cap space carrying $5.6m in dead cap.

I'm still expecting an extension for Reed to also help create more cap room.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-york-jets

[Mr. Rogers]

26 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The Jets should be drafting TWO Wr's in this draft.

As well as the guys mentioned in the original post there are a lot of well worth it later round picks such as:

Jamari Thrash

Ainias Smith

Jacob Cowing

Anthony Gould

Ryan Flournoy

Taj Washington

Douglas needs to pick to the strength of the draft and take two Receivers and one more olineman in this draft.

You help insulate vs guys that do not work out (Mims, Elijah Moore) by double dipping.

A team like the packers are a good example, they have used at least couple picks per draft at wr and now they have a young deep, talented wr room.

Good thought. Ainias Smith in particular is a guy I love, and he may have some use in the return game too if Gipson isn't working out for whatever reason. 

I'd be in favor of this. Might do a deep dive thread on who's left day 3 tomorrow morning. 

 

[Mr. Rogers]

38 minutes ago, slats said:

Posted this this morning in another thread regarding trading JFM: 

Something has to give with JFM, imho. Trading him, I believe, has to be an option. I’m pretty confident that they’ve already had talks about that haircut. 

Oh, I'm not saying the Jets wouldn't trade him. I'm saying no one would want him lol, especially at that price tag. A cut, re structure or trade seems almost guaranteed, but if it's really a trade I imagine we eat some salary.

Also, regardless of whether he's even tradeable, he won't move the needle much as far as draft trade value. With his salary and production, what do we think he's worth? Maybe a 5th or 6th rounder at best? I think folks are kidding themselves if they're convinced he'll be part of a move to get high in the 2nd round. 

[HighPitch]

johnny wilson is there too

[HighPitch]

so on that list we have 13 wideouts

there are 42 spots until we pick. 

so to miss out there would have to be a wr taken every 3 pick or so. Unlikely?

It would be great if we can trade a 4th and the 3rd to just move up even 6 or 7 spots. Hell I would trade next years 3rd as well to move up even more

[32EBoozer]

1 hour ago, Mr. Rogers said:

Brevity is not my strong suit,

@Sperm Edwards

[32EBoozer]

5 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

johnny wilson is there too

Massive target & max development player. I wouldn't be opposed if some of the more "Game Ready" receivers are gone. Have him & Brownlee battle it out for the 2025 season when MW leaves.

[slats]

7 minutes ago, Mr. Rogers said:

Oh, I'm not saying the Jets wouldn't trade him. I'm saying no one would want him lol, especially at that price tag. A cut, re structure or trade seems almost guaranteed, but if it's really a trade I imagine we eat some salary.

Also, regardless of whether he's even tradeable, he won't move the needle much as far as draft trade value. With his salary and production, what do we think he's worth? Maybe a 5th or 6th rounder at best? I think folks are kidding themselves if they're convinced he'll be part of a move to get high in the 2nd round. 

He’s a starting caliber, 28 year old DE/DT hybrid who gets you 5-6 sacks and another 15 QB hits a year playing a little over half the snaps on one of the better defensive fronts in the league is worth well more than a 5th or 6th, imho. If they packaged him with their third to move back into the second, I’d want another pick back, too. 
 
I don’t know what’s gonna happen, but let’s not pretend that he doesn’t have real value. 

[Sonny Werblin]

Sign Hunter Renfrow who is an ideal fit in the slot for the jets O. That frees the front office to draft BPA rather than make reach picks to fill roster holes.

[AFJF]

I wonder if the OBJ videos with Justin Beiber at those Diddy parties are gonna' scare teams off.

[AFJF]

1 minute ago, slats said:

He’s a starting caliber, 28 year old DE/DT hybrid who gets you 5-6 sacks and another 15 QB hits a year playing a little over half the snaps on one of the better defensive fronts in the league is worth well more than a 5th or 6th, imho. If they packaged him with their third to move back into the second, I’d want another pick back, too. 
 
I don’t know what’s gonna happen, but let’s not pretend that he doesn’t have real value. 

Most underrated player on the roster by the fan base because if you don't get double-digit sacks there's no way you can be a good player.

[HighPitch]

for fun i played the simulator 6 times just now to see who is left at 72.

 

turns out, there was always at least 2 or 3 guys on that list left.

 

also not mentioned here are malik washington and the speedster  jermaine burton. pretty sure they met with malik

[AFJF]

13 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

johnny wilson is there too

Can't see them taking him after what they just went through with Lazard.  Wayyyy too many drops.

[HighPitch]

edit ok malik was mentioned

[HighPitch]

the alabama wr burton is a speedster with sure hands according to my research. A guy like him could open up the field for others

[varjet]

• How many WRs have the Jets played in the last 4 years on average?  More than 10.  There is room for guys like Brownless and Gipson on the PS, at least to start.  My guess is that someone drafted at 72 is better than them.   They all will play sometime this year.
• The Jets have no money,  but JFM is still the elephant in the room.  Cap space must be found. Don’t be surprised if someone to replace him is drafted at 72/4-5 round. 
• I think JD looks to take a WR at 72 but will keep to his board.  Someone like a Zinter is also a solid pick there.   JD is paid to find a Puka Nakua type in round 4 and below.  He needs to do that, but unlike with the OL where theoretically Smith and Moses are starting out healthy, Mike Williams is not.   We need someone better than what we have at WR to start the other guys on the PS.   There will be opportunity for the other guys in 2025 when Williams may not come back, and Lazard is definitely cut. 

[Mr. Rogers]

8 minutes ago, slats said:

He’s a starting caliber, 28 year old DE/DT hybrid who gets you 5-6 sacks and another 15 QB hits a year playing a little over half the snaps on one of the better defensive fronts in the league is worth well more than a 5th or 6th, imho. If they packaged him with their third to move back into the second, I’d want another pick back, too. 
 
I don’t know what’s gonna happen, but let’s not pretend that he doesn’t have real value. 

Let me be clear, I really like JFM as a player and person. He's good against the run, versatile and a good teammate. Not too shabby to rush either. But at 28, he is likely at his peak, and he is either a low level starter or high level rotational piece for most teams. 

Last year he had 3.5 sacks, 33 tackles, no forced fumbles, and 14 QB hits. His pass rush rating was the worst it's been. Obviously he is playing in a stacked Jets DL that limits his snaps, but they also help draw attention off him. Even when he was getting more use in our defense, it's 5-6 sacks and 30-40 tackles as you said. That's nice, and I'm sure many teams would value that, but in a world where hassan Reddick went for a 2nd/3rd rounder, are you REALLY arguing these stats put JFM above a 5th/6th round value?

Plus, the other aspect is value vs salary. JFM is due 15m, the same as Trey Hendrickson next year. Which one are you going out of your way to get? We might get more for JFM if he was on a dirt cheap, team friendly deal, but it's the opposite. He is paid well above his production profile, and his years as a full time starter don't show that he's suddenly poised to live up to that 15m price tag after all.

He does have "real value". I just don't think NFL gms will see him as being as valuable as you seem to, especially for 15m+. If the Jets eat 10m of that then maaaaaybe the value you implied happens, but even then I'm not so sure. It's not as if players like Jerry Hughes aren't sitting out in free agency waiting to offer similar production for less money over the next 1-2 years.

[Mr. Rogers]

20 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Most underrated player on the roster by the fan base because if you don't get double-digit sacks there's no way you can be a good player.

It's funny, I just defended JFM earlier this off season on here. I think he's great and I hope we find a way to keep him AND help the cap. 

I just think people are convinced he's worth more on the trade market than he actually is, in terms of production vs contract value especially. 

[LAD_Brooklyn]

I wouldn't disagree that we need a pass catcher. I love Troy Franklin and and Javon Baker. Would love to select them at 72. Don't stone me for this but I'm 100% on board with us taking a RB2 like Trey Benson or even Brooks (had he not torn his ACL). 

Someone who can fill in for AVT is Cooper Beebe from Kansas. 

If not RB, WR or G then a S. JD has to also consider if he has to reach to get either Jordan Travis or Michael Pratt. 

[LIJetsFan]

Re-inventing the wheel indeed.  IMHO a trade up is 95% likely.  Our roster is pretty full.  We'd have no place for all these guys if we keep all our picks. 

Of course who knows if the pick will work out or not but trading is a JD's forte.  Let the man work.