Deadspin: How The Jets' Run-Stuffing, QB-Ruining Defensive Line Came To Be

[dbatesman]

FO has our playoff odds at 47.8%, btw, which is higher than any non-division leader other than the Broncos.

[Matt39]

FO has our playoff odds at 47.8%, btw, which is higher than any non-division leader other than the Broncos.

 

This just means we'll lose to the Bills.

[dbatesman]

This just means we'll lose to the Bills.

 

Natch. If I were a betting man, I'd bet the farm on Buffalo this week.

[neckdemon]

When the QB gives the other team a TD via interception or fumble, that counts against the "scoring defense." Take away the TDs that Geno has given away, and the Jets defense is top ten in that category. They're also top ten in sacks, forced fumbles, and yards against. Number one against the run. They're pretty good. And if Geno is getting better, they'll get better, too, by defending fewer short fields.

But are you really saying the Jets currently have a 2% chance of making the playoffs?

 

 

counting those if you want, we are actually #14 or #15. i can't rememeber if he's thrown 3 or 4. the one team who has made the playoffs with the same bad stats, the 2010 seahawks, probably threw a couple of picks 6's but lets say they didnt. there actually hasn't been a team in the last 5 years with a scoring offense any worse than 25th that actually made the play-offs. that was the 2011 broncos and they were playing a 4th place schedule in a division that they won at 8-8. so yeah i'm saying that if we don't pick up the scoring then we have virtually no chance at the play-offs (about 3.3% based upon recent stats and how they relate to making th eplay-offs)  unless our defense suddenly starts limiting opponents to under 13 ppg.

 

fwiw, just having a good run defense is not saying much. our pass defense has been abysmal. all that other stuff sounds good but you have to keep the opponents from scoring

[Matt39]

Natch. If I were a betting man, I'd bet the farm on Buffalo this week.

 

Lisa, do me a favor. Complete this sentence: "Daddy should bet all his money on—" 

[slats]

counting those if you want, we are actually #14 or #15. i can't rememeber if he's thrown 3 or 4. the one team who has made the playoffs with the same bad stats, the 2010 seahawks, probably threw a couple of picks 6's but lets say they didnt. there actually hasn't been a team in the last 5 years with a scoring offense any worse than 25th that actually made the play-offs. that was the 2011 broncos and they were playing a 4th place schedule in a division that they won at 8-8. so yeah i'm saying that if we don't pick up the scoring then we have virtually no chance at the play-offs (about 3.3% based upon recent stats and how they relate to making th eplay-offs)  unless our defense suddenly starts limiting opponents to under 13 ppg.

 

fwiw, just having a good run defense is not saying much. our pass defense has been abysmal

He's thrown four, and did his own version of the butt-fumble for a fifth. Subtract those 3.9 points per game from the Jets, and they're top ten. That's not counting his other 11 turnovers that gave opponents a short field to work with. The defense isn't the issue.

And I hear FO gives the Jets a 47.8% chance of making the playoffs.

[neckdemon]

He's thrown four, and did his own version of the butt-fumble for a fifth. Subtract those 3.9 points per game from the Jets, and they're top ten. That's not counting his other 11 turnovers that gave opponents a short field to work with. The defense isn't the issue.

And I hear FO gives the Jets a 47.8% chance of making the playoffs.

 

 

think what you want. it's unlikely that we make the play-offs, unless the offense improves over what it's been or the defense becomes incredibly stingy to compensate. i'm not saying the defense itself is the problem, but if the offense keeps doing what it's been doing we will not make th eplay-offs unless the defense becomes '85 bears like. as it is we won 2 games we shouldn't have on pure luck. it's an extreme long shot for us to make the play-offs if our offense keeps doing what it's been doing......unless the defense plays etraordinary football. our pass defense has been horrendous...and i'd even arguethat the defense deserves to eat the 2 pick 6's thrown in the bengals game given how ****in terrible they were. anyway i've spent some time today looking at offensive and defensive rankings and how they correlate to making and winning in th eplay-offs. have a look:

 

 

edit: also you are kind of supporting my point that our ofense needs to improve big time. i'm not blaming the defense, i'm saying that the defense needs to be inhuman for a team with an offense as bad as ours to succeed.

[slats]

think what you want. it's unlikely that we make the play-offs, unless the offense improves over what it's been or the defense becomes incredibly stingy to compensate. i'm not saying the defense itself is the problem, but if the offense keeps doing what it's been doing we will not make th eplay-offs unless the defense becomes '85 bears like. as it is we won 2 games we shouldn't have on pure luck. it's an extreme long shot for us to make the play-offs if our offense keeps doing what it's been doing......unless the defense plays etraordinary football. our pass defense has been horrendous...and i'd even arguethat the defense deserves to eat the 2 pick 6's thrown in the bengals game given how ****in terrible they were. anyway i've spent some time today looking at offensive and defensive rankings and how they correlate to making and winning in th eplay-offs. have a look:

 

I looked, and I think you wasted your time. The average rankings of all playoff teams isn't as relevant as the average rankings of sixth seeds in either conference, but I doubt that's very relevant, either.

Yes, the Jets have a couple lucky wins under their belt, but that only works in their favor with the difficult part of their schedule behind them. Five of the Jets nine games so far have been against top ten scoring defenses, only two of their remaining seven opponents are top ten. Three of their first nine games came against top ten scoring offenses, they face none down the stretch. They're in good shape, especially if the rookie QB shows improvement.

Not saying they're a lock by any stretch (I'd've put it at 50-50 before I saw the FO guess), but your mathematically acquired 3.3% figure is completely ridiculous.

[neckdemon]

I looked, and I think you wasted your time. The average rankings of all playoff teams isn't as relevant as the average rankings of sixth seeds in either conference, but I doubt that's very relevant, either.

Yes, the Jets have a couple lucky wins under their belt, but that only works in their favor with the difficult part of their schedule behind them. Five of the Jets nine games so far have been against top ten scoring defenses, only two of their remaining seven opponents are top ten. Three of their first nine games came against top ten scoring offenses, they face none down the stretch. They're in good shape, especially if the rookie QB shows improvement.

Not saying they're a lock by any stretch (I'd've put it at 50-50 before I saw the FO guess), but your mathematically acquired 3.3% figure is completely ridiculous.

 

 

nah didnt waste my time at all. its definitely relevant. ranking of only the sixth seed makes no sense as a significant amount of times the sixth seed was a better team than a team who won a weak division. besides, what good is making the play-offs if you don't at least make the conference championship game? it actually paints a pretty clear picture that offense is stronger than defense (which you should have known anyway in this era of the nfl). and, even though i didnt post all the individual rankings because it would have taken too long, there are exactly 3 teams who have made the play-offs in the last 5 years who had a scoring offense ranked 22 or worse. 25th was the worst by the 2011 broncos who won a weak division at 8-8 , the 2010 seahawks who also won a weak division at 7-9. and the 2009 bengals who had the 6th ranked scoring defense (4th total defense) and lost in the wildcard weekend anyway. now i may have been going to an extreme by saying their chances are 3.3% but it's definitely closer than the 50% you suggest.......that is if the current level of play stays the same as it has through the first 9 games.

[billo83]

With Revis there's no need for Milliner so they could have moved on to Richardson at 9. 

 

Disagree. BPA means BPA. A lot of people around here questioned the Richardson pick at the time because DL was already the strongest unit on the team. But he was the BPA for Idz and that's why is was chosen,

 

The fact is at the time of the draft, no one knew how Revis injury would affect his play. Add to that the Jets had to be thinking of replacing Cro at the end of 2013, so there's a need to groom a potential replacement. So even if Revis was still on the team, CB still would have made more sense.

[Sperm Edwards]

Jets didn't have to pay the picks? Sucks for the Bucs but I still don't see that Revis trade as a particularly good one for the Jets. 

 

Maybe I worded it badly.  I meant paying a mid-high 1st and high 3rd (or 4th) as in paying the price of forgoing draft picks, not escaping the payment of those draft picks' salaries.

 

GFY.

[Sperm Edwards]

Disagree. BPA means BPA. A lot of people around here questioned the Richardson pick at the time because DL was already the strongest unit on the team. But he was the BPA for Idz and that's why is was chosen,

 

The fact is at the time of the draft, no one knew how Revis injury would affect his play. Add to that the Jets had to be thinking of replacing Cro at the end of 2013, so there's a need to groom a potential replacement. So even if Revis was still on the team, CB still would have made more sense.

 

Nope.  In today's pass-first NFL, the Jets wouldn't go strict BPA if they had 2 good corners for the 2013 season (the far better one coming off a busted knee injury), 1 good one for the 2014 season if he still plays at a career-best level, and none for 2015 and beyond.  

 

However they would go strict BPA on a DT if their DL was stacked for the 2013 season (already had two NTs and a pair of huge, 1st round DEs for our 3-man front, and all were under contract - or had a team option - for 2014 as well).  

 

That is the narrative you are required to accept.

[SenorGato]

He's PFF's top-rated corner right now, so it's not as if he's not playing well. If Glazer approved the deal to start with, you'd think he'd be in all the way. That team isn't bad enough to go scorched earth on personnel. They're a good coach and a vet QB away from being ready to compete for a title. Maybe a Rex-Revis reunion?????

 

Jon. Gruden. 

[SenorGato]

 

Nope.  In today's pass-first NFL, the Jets wouldn't go strict BPA if they had 2 good corners for the 2013 season (the far better one coming off a busted knee injury), 1 good one for the 2014 season if he still plays at a career-best level, and none for 2015 and beyond.  

 

However they would go strict BPA on a DT if their DL was stacked for the 2013 season (already had two NTs and a pair of huge, 1st round DEs for our 3-man front, and all were under contract - or had a team option - for 2014 as well).  

 

That is the narrative you are required to accept.

 

Four first round corners in 2013 because of 2015 makes sense? 

[neckdemon]

 idk if i like naming a defensive line that really hasn't accomplished anything yet. that said....i am really excited at the relative youth of this line and the potential dominance it can exhibit. add in coples and davis and w ehave a really young 5 out of the front 7. and they all look to be real players. besides offensive weapons (and possibly a qb depending on how geno looks for the next 7 games) we need to get one establiched, dominant veteran olb and at least one upgrade somewhere on the secondary. milliner actually had a good game last week and perhaps he will come into his own meaning cb won't be in as bad a shape as it might have been. we are set-up pretty nicely for this upcoming offseason. plenty of cap room and alot of draft picks. i'm thinking we might be looking at the dawn of an era in jets football. i don't expect we will do anything this year except possibly sneak into the play-offs if the offense can uptick it's level of play for the next 7 games against some weaker opponents. but starting next year, with a succesful offseason we can be a force here. the patriots time is nearing its end as brady is coming into the tail end of his career and the dolphins are still not ready

[Sperm Edwards]

Four first round corners in 2013 because of 2015 makes sense? 

 

2014.  2015 just is a bonus that only adds to the pile, and that's only if Cromartie played out his contract (a 50/50 proposition at his age and cap #).  And again, that's what BPA is.  Best player available regardless of position (obviously except in extreme situations where the guy would never see the field for years, like if we already have a franchise QB you wouldn't take another one so early again, or something along those lines).  But if they truly believed this CB is all that - and they did - then you don't pass up on having him for the next 4-7 years because we have Revis for 1 more season - that being the gutting year of a rebuild - before he tests the free agency waters to leave no doubt that he got the most money anyone would give him. 

 

The Jets absolutely did the right thing with Revis.  Whether or not they did the right thing with their #9 pick in Milliner remains to be seen (though the early returns clearly are not good).

 

We had FAR more long-term depth for a 3-man line than we had at CB, and many/most teams go with 3 WRs and/or a TE instead of a full-time FB nowadays anyway.  The idea that if we had 1 more season of Revis - that is, if we couldn't move him - means the team wouldn't have drafted a CB is in your imagination.  There is nothing whatsoever to indicate Idzik would have abandoned his board because of 1 more season of good depth at a position.

 

This GM stated he's was going BPA regardless of position and Richardson is a prime example of that.  The last thing this team "needed" was another DT.  We'd drafted a DE/DT guy in Wilkerson, a DE/DT guy in Coples, a pure NT in Ellis, and had another pure NT in Snacks.  And none of them are or looked to be on their way out the door within a year or two except maybe Ellis (who isn't first string anyway).  The one area of this team LEAST in need was DT and we went in that direction at #13 anyway.

 

More likely, if we only had 1 first round pick, it either would have still been Milliner if strictly sticking to the board, or if it got Idzik to abandon his board a little bit might have gone with Geno Smith at #9.  Not to mention the possibility of the remaining guard in Warmack.  I don't see any way the Jets, with only 1 first round pick and needs everywhere except on the interior DL, use that lone first round pick on a DT.  

 

Revis netted us Richardson and high 3rd/4th in '14 and massive cap flexibility in the future with Revis's amortized bonus money off the books for good.  Doesn't mean Revis wasn't or won't be a great CB.  He's the best we've ever had and odds are we're never going to land another one like him.  And teams will continue to win superbowl after superbowl without his presence on their rosters, just like they did when Revis was unstoppable.

[neckdemon]

I looked, and I think you wasted your time. The average rankings of all playoff teams isn't as relevant as the average rankings of sixth seeds in either conference, but I doubt that's very relevant, either.

Yes, the Jets have a couple lucky wins under their belt, but that only works in their favor with the difficult part of their schedule behind them. Five of the Jets nine games so far have been against top ten scoring defenses, only two of their remaining seven opponents are top ten. Three of their first nine games came against top ten scoring offenses, they face none down the stretch. They're in good shape, especially if the rookie QB shows improvement.

Not saying they're a lock by any stretch (I'd've put it at 50-50 before I saw the FO guess), but your mathematically acquired 3.3% figure is completely ridiculous.

 

 

not lookin so ridiculous anymore