How many games will Geno Smith win as the Jets Starting QB in the 2016-2017 season, assuming Ryan Fitzpatrick does not return?

[Mainejet]

4 minutes ago, cant wait said:

Why couldn't they cut him? there's no dead money 

There was last season at the time the fight happened. Now, because their QB situation is so unsteady and there not sure I ready to step into the backup role, they have no choice but to hold on to Geno for the time being. They don't give a sh*t about him, he's not there draft pick, he's Idzik's.

[cant wait]

25 minutes ago, Mainejet said:

There was last season at the time the fight happened. Now, because their QB situation is so unsteady and there not sure I ready to step into the backup role, they have no choice but to hold on to Geno for the time being. They don't give a sh*t about him, he's not there draft pick, he's Idzik's.

No there wasn't, it was after june 1st so the jets could have let him go without being stuck with additional dead money. they chose to keep smith because he's a low cost bench option and will be on the roster until they see enough from petty to make him the #2 or until the end of 2016 season, whichever comes first 

[PepPep]

34 minutes ago, Mainejet said:

There was last season at the time the fight happened. Now, because their QB situation is so unsteady and there not sure I ready to step into the backup role, they have no choice but to hold on to Geno for the time being. They don't give a sh*t about him, he's not there draft pick, he's Idzik's.

That complete BS. Such a weak argument.Back then he was in the 3rd year of his 2nd round pick rookie contract. Even if the was dead money, its nothing. The GM's hands are not tied, what are you talking about? He's not Revis. He's getting paid pennies in the grand scheme of things.  You are REALLY reaching with this argument. If the coaching staff and/or brass did not see any value in keeping Geno or if they saw the 'punch' as mostly Geno's fault, he would have been cut, his contract would not be an issue. 

Ignorant? Don't understand common sense? Really? THIS is the common sense I am supposed to understand??? 

Sure, you can argue THIS year they are holding on to him b/c the QB depth is unstable. But do you really think they are going to keep him on the roster if they don't see any value in him? Why would they do that? So management and coaching want him gone, and yet he's still a Jet and Fitz (or any other vet/starter) is unsigned. Geno is the #1 QB and its already OTA and yet you're still arguing the Jets see no value in him and 'if they had their way' would have cut him a long time ago? SUCH A WEAK ARGUMENT. 

[Terry]

On 6/6/2016 at 8:57 AM, Villain The Foe said:

I think the Jets can win 10 games this season and it has much to do with our division games. I think we go 4-2 in our division. Let me set up the scenario. 

 

Week 1 vs Cincy= Win! Many will disagree, especially if Geno's the QB given the hate, but think about this. We got blown out 49-9 during the last contest, however, the Jets have a record of 9-2 vs the Bengals going all the way back to 1992, they have a more recent record of 4-1 going back to 2008. Teams like Cincy and the Chargers the Jets have in recent history have not had a problem defeating. 

week 2 vs Buf=Win! 

week 3 vs KC= Win! 

week 4 vs Seattle=Loss!

Week 5 vs Pitt=Loss!

Week 6 vs Arizona=Loss!

Week 7 vs Ravens=Win! The Jets are to the Ravens like Cincy is to the Jets. The difference here? The Ravens have problems on both sides of the ball. Name their top 3 corners? Name their top 3 WR's? Name their RB corp? Sure, Justin Forsett had a really good season for them in 2014, but the Jets strength is being top 1 to 4 in the league at stopping the run. Are we to be nervous of Trent Richardson? We spread that defense out and we can beat them for sure. 

Week 8 vs Browns=Win!

So, after 8 weeks and the toughest part of our schedule behind us the Jets could realistically be 5-3 during the halfway mark. We lose to all of the teams that are at this point considered "better than us", The Jets pick up two huge AFC wins against Cincy and KC and now we're heading into the "race for the playoffs" come week 9. 

Week 9 vs Miami=Win! 

Week 10 vs Rams=Win!

Week 11=Bye. The Jets are 7-3 by the Bye. and is either in 1st place of their division or in 2nd behind the Patriots. 

Week 12 vs Pats=Loss! With control of the division on the line, the Jets once again lose to the Patriots and now the Pats have outright control over the division yet again. 

Week 13 vs Colts=Win! Lets be serious, The Colts only have Andrew Luck...and he doesnt play defense. The Colts can beat up on the AFC South all they want, that doesnt make them good. Andrew Luck has lost every game he's played against the Jets, and the trend will continue. 

Week 14 vs 49er's=Win! Blaine Gabbert? 

Week 15 vs Dolphins= Win! We sweep the dolphins again. 

Week 16 vs Patriots=Win! Not only do we split the season against the Pats, but we beat them in their building. Sweet!

Week 17 vs Bills=Loss! I dont see us sweeping the Bills, however I dont see the Bills sweeping the Jets again. We split this season. 

 

This is an 11-5 Jets record folks along with the Jets going 4-2 in the division. Anyone thinking that this is "insane" then cool, you can put the KC game as a loss, but please explain it. That will still leave the Jets with a 10-6 record. 

Geno Smith and the Jets can win 10-11 games this year based on team talent and the schedule and could actually make the playoffs. 
 

 

Your expectations are inverted compared to mine (3-7 at the Bye), but I concede that 7-3 is certainly possible.  Stranger things have happened in the NFL, but then, that only proves that it was always our "expectations" which were "strange", not the results.  If they win, that is as it should be - that is as it was meant to be.

 

How far do the Jets get in the playoffs with Geno Smith at QB?  I would assume that they have a good chance of getting a berth with 10-11 wins.

[Terry]

On 6/6/2016 at 9:39 AM, Sperm Edwards said:

I rounded to the nearest 0.5 wins per game, as the likelihood of a win. Divisional games I'm just calculating the likely % of both together; if I think we split, then it's 0.5 and 0.5 regardless of which is the earlier/later or home/away game. 0.5 and 1 means I think one we definitely win, with a 50/50 shot at sweeping; 0.5 and 0 the opposite:

With Geno:

1. 0 CIN
2. 0.5 @Buf
3. 0 @KC
4. 0 SEA
5. 0 @Pit
6. 0 @Ari
7. 0.5 BAL
8. 1 @Cle
9. 0.5 @Mia
10. 0.5 RAMS
11. bye
12. 0.5 NE
13. 0.5 IND
14. 1 @SF
15. 0.5 MIA
16. 0 @NE
17. BUF

Total = 6* wins with Geno, but even that seems unlikely (hence the *), because if we get out to a 1-6 or 3-7 start I think he gets benched at the bye at the latest, unless both Petty and Hackenberg are completely useless. But yeah, if neither can take the field or if Bowles does his own "Geno gives us the best chance to win" thing, even after we're all but mathematically eliminated and he starts all 16 games, I see a good chance for a 1-6 start, then 3-7 at the bye, then after we're eliminated, we win 3 of the last 6 (as yet again, Geno's #s rise dramatically in meaningless post-bye games as the season closes out, and we get to see neither Petty nor Hackenberg in live action heading into 2017 lol).

Also note, winning half of those last 6 will drop us from contending for the #1 pick with a sure thing QB there for the taking, and we'll instead pick around #10. If we DO "tank" the rest of the season after that crappola start (even if not purposeful tanking, after switching to Petty/Hackenberg), and finish with the #1 pick, then there won't be any worthwhile QB projected in the top 10-15 outright. Of course.

 

I like the breakdown, and not simply because I agree with it, but because I should have done something similar. 

 

But I'm lazy. 

 

Incidentally, this exact scenario is what I had in mind, and the biggest question I had was whether the Jets would leave Smith at QB given the plausible scenario of winning some of the games in weeks 7 to 10.  Nevertheless, Smith being replaced after a worse start such as 1-6 seemed plausible as well, but I went with a middling 3-7 record that appeared reasonable.  The Jets could conceivably see the writing on the wall - and try to see what they had in their backups.

[drdetroit]

9-7

[FTL Jet Fan]

On Monday, June 06, 2016 at 8:57 AM, Villain The Foe said:

I think the Jets can win 10 games this season and it has much to do with our division games. I think we go 4-2 in our division. Let me set up the scenario.

 

Week 1 vs Cincy= Win! Many will disagree, especially if Geno's the QB given the hate, but think about this. We got blown out 49-9 during the last contest, however, the Jets have a record of 9-2 vs the Bengals going all the way back to 1992, they have a more recent record of 4-1 going back to 2008. Teams like Cincy and the Chargers the Jets have in recent history have not had a problem defeating.

week 2 vs Buf=Win! 

week 3 vs KC= Win! 

week 4 vs Seattle=Loss!

Week 5 vs Pitt=Loss!

Week 6 vs Arizona=Loss!

Week 7 vs Ravens=Win! The Jets are to the Ravens like Cincy is to the Jets. The difference here? The Ravens have problems on both sides of the ball. Name their top 3 corners? Name their top 3 WR's? Name their RB corp? Sure, Justin Forsett had a really good season for them in 2014, but the Jets strength is being top 1 to 4 in the league at stopping the run. Are we to be nervous of Trent Richardson? We spread that defense out and we can beat them for sure.

Week 8 vs Browns=Win!

So, after 8 weeks and the toughest part of our schedule behind us the Jets could realistically be 5-3 during the halfway mark. We lose to all of the teams that are at this point considered "better than us", The Jets pick up two huge AFC wins against Cincy and KC and now we're heading into the "race for the playoffs" come week 9.

Week 9 vs Miami=Win! 

Week 10 vs Rams=Win!

Week 11=Bye. The Jets are 7-3 by the Bye. and is either in 1st place of their division or in 2nd behind the Patriots.

Week 12 vs Pats=Loss! With control of the division on the line, the Jets once again lose to the Patriots and now the Pats have outright control over the division yet again.

Week 13 vs Colts=Win! Lets be serious, The Colts only have Andrew Luck...and he doesnt play defense. The Colts can beat up on the AFC South all they want, that doesnt make them good. Andrew Luck has lost every game he's played against the Jets, and the trend will continue.

Week 14 vs 49er's=Win! Blaine Gabbert?

Week 15 vs Dolphins= Win! We sweep the dolphins again.

Week 16 vs Patriots=Win! Not only do we split the season against the Pats, but we beat them in their building. Sweet!

Week 17 vs Bills=Loss! I dont see us sweeping the Bills, however I dont see the Bills sweeping the Jets again. We split this season.

 

This is an 11-5 Jets record folks along with the Jets going 4-2 in the division. Anyone thinking that this is "insane" then cool, you can put the KC game as a loss, but please explain it. That will still leave the Jets with a 10-6 record.

Geno Smith and the Jets can win 10-11 games this year based on team talent and the schedule and could actually make the playoffs. 
 

I like your optimism V, but I have to go with 4-6.

[Terry]

On 6/6/2016 at 9:43 AM, Sperm Edwards said:

Continuing above; for completeness, predictions with Fitz:

1. 0 CIN
2. 0.5 @Buf
3. 0 @KC
4. 0 SEA
5. 0.5 @Pit
6. 0 @Ari
7. 0.5 BAL
8. 1 @Cle
9. 1 @Mia
10. 0.5 RAMS
11. bye
12. 0.5 @NE
13. 0.5 IND
14. 1 @SF
15. 1 MIA
16. 0.5 @NE
17. 0 BUF

Total = 7.5 wins.

Obviously not exact, since I'm not literally predicting a tie game. Further, I expect at least one surprise upset win and/or letdown, but I think they cancel within a half a game after the dust settles. So if I was to throw in another total half-win to full win against Cincy, KC, etc, I'd also bump down up a preseason "win" most are already counting against Baltimore or Indy, into a sure trap-game loss, or maybe we only split with Miami. Either way I see us finishing at 7-9 or 8-8, with a possible but less finish at either 6-10 or 9-7.

So individual surprise results (good or bad) notwithstanding, with the post above, I think this is about where we end up total for with either of them. In fairness, as things appear today, this would be a tough schedule where 11 wins would be very difficult even if we had a true top 10 QB (that we most certainly don't have). All of this is barring future news like significant injuries, acquisitions, blah blah blah. We're in early June.

 

My initial instinct was to offer a companion poll of the same question, only with Fitzpatrick as the Starting QB, but I decided against it.  8-8 would be my prediction.

 

I agree Fitzpatrick and the Jets have every reason to get a deal done.  Then again, we're always told to leave personal prejudices aside and focus on the facts, not expectations.  So Smith is the Starting QB getting first snaps, and that won't change until Fitzpatrick signs on the dotted line(s).  If that changes, fans will have plenty of time to discuss their season with him at the helm.

 

But for now, it remains Geno Smith in the limelight (or the crosshairs, depending on your point of view).

[Sperm Edwards]

7 hours ago, PepPep said:

Awful, awful humans. Just completely unaware. Don't know football. Don't know much about the Jets.  

Humans??

[jetscrazey]

1 in 4 voters in this poll think Geno Smith can lead the Jets to 10+ wins, with their tough schedule

The same 1 in 4 voters in this poll is either an idiot or a complete homer.

[Mike135]

12 hours ago, jetscrazey said:

1 in 4 voters in this poll think Geno Smith can lead the Jets to 10+ wins, with their tough schedule

The same 1 in 4 voters in this poll is either an idiot or a complete homer.

In that case, I'd like to proudly say I'm an idiotic homer.

Media day in Florham Park today.  This place will be full of us idiots/homers.  Enjoy!  

[PatsFanTX]

1 in 4 voters in this poll think Geno Smith can lead the Jets to 10+ wins, with their tough schedule

The same 1 in 4 voters in this poll is either an idiot or a complete homer.

It's June, what would you expect?

[drdetroit]

Geno went 8-8 in 2013 with an arena league roster.  He now has Brandon Marshall, Decker and Forte.

[PepPep]

2 hours ago, drdetroit said:

Geno went 8-8 in 2013 with an arena league roster.  He now has Brandon Marshall, Decker and Forte.

And another year in the league taking a beating on the field and from the media. A locker room incident that knocked him out giving a vet QB the starting gig. And a season where he can learn the system, work on his weaknesses, and stay out of the spotlight. All of this should have matured him to be a better leader and better football player. 

We will see. But consistency with the coaching staff, a QB vacancy, added weapons on offense, a season to sit, learn and prepare, and looming Free Agency should have Geno primed for a break-out season. If he gets a shot to start, it will truly show what he is capable of, as there will really be no excuses for him. 

I'm pushing for Geno to at least get a shot to start. If the Jets bring Fitz back, especially with the $$ he is asking for, the job will be automatically handed to Fitz...giving Geno no shot.

[Jet Nut]

22 hours ago, Mainejet said:

BS. To a man, including the coaching staff if they had their way Geno would have been gone long ago. The ONLY reason Geno was able to stay on this team after the fight was because of his contract and they couldn't simply cut him like they did IK Enemkpali. I hate arguing with people that do not understand common sense. TWO players got into an altercation that day, not one. The punishment is that TWO players get cut, unless the GM hands are tied in regards to the POS contract. If you're really this ignorant as not to know simple common sense, then go climb back in your hole and stay there.

It really is hard to be this wrong in a single post.  From you need two to be punished to there was imaginary reasons that prevented his release