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Von Miller's Reported Contract Offer


CrazyCarl40

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4 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

What's the reason? They look pretty and get the crowd going? They're basically the RBIs of the NFL. 

Mo's top 25, top 3 in his class (300 pounders), in the NFL whereas Miller is top 10.

The reason is that the rules have been modified to feature the passing game over the last 20+ years.  QB sacks are maybe the last thing left to a defense to slow that down and so anyone who can do that as well as Vonn Miller is automatically that much more valuable as a result.

If the rules and the way those are called on the field had been similarly changed in favor of the run game then Miller would be less valuable.

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46 minutes ago, EM31 said:

The reason is that the rules have been modified to feature the passing game over the last 20+ years.  QB sacks are maybe the last thing left to a defense to slow that down and so anyone who can do that as well as Vonn Miller is automatically that much more valuable as a result.

If the rules and the way those are called on the field had been similarly changed in favor of the run game then Miller would be less valuable.

What the new rules do for sacks is make them more plentiful than ever. They are not the one and only way teams have to slow down the pass or even the best outcome (an INT or turnover). 

The thing about premium sack guys like Miller is that:

- They're extremely visible to fans, the most visible of all defenders, making them a little more marketable than their peers on defense.

- They are often the best athletes on the field and the best size/speed guys.

- Their athleticism gives them the potential for wide skillsets and long careers.

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21 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

What the new rules do for sacks is make them more plentiful than ever. They are not the one and only way teams have to slow down the pass or even the best outcome (an INT or turnover). 

The thing about premium sack guys like Miller is that:

- They're extremely visible to fans, the most visible of all defenders, making them a little more marketable than their peers on defense.

- They are often the best and fastest athletes on the field.

- Their athleticism gives them the potential for wide skillsets and long careers.

Gotta disagree with much of this.

CB's have been hobbled in recent years in terms of what they are no longer permitted to do to stop pass completions.

Rules to protect QBs have been massively slanted in favor of the offense such that teams can go with a pass happy offense all day long whereas in years gone by any such approach would inevitably lead to QB injury.  The whole game has changed which is why all of the offensive records are being broken seemingly every year.

In short, the sack and/or the "almost sack QB pressure" is pretty much the last best way to slow down these offensive juggernauts.

It is not clear to me that premiere pass rushing LBs or DEs have careers that are any longer than other positions.  CB yes because of the lack of contact but not DE or LB.

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46 minutes ago, EM31 said:

In short, the sack and/or the "almost sack QB pressure" is pretty much the last best way to slow down these offensive juggernauts.

Including pressures and hurries out of LF is a massive change despite how casually that was just inserted into your side of the discussion here. I'm going to continue to insist that sacks by themself are overvalued - the rules today make it that all defensive positions are working uphill and at a disadvantage. It's not breaking news to me any of the stuff said about the rules today favoring offense and the pass.

I will say it's fair to question my last claim about career length, it's probably bullsh*t and is for the purpose of this convo.

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19 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

Including pressures and hurries out of LF is a massive change despite how casually that was just inserted into your side of the discussion here. I'm going to continue to insist that sacks by themself are overvalued - the rules today make it that all defensive positions are working uphill and at a disadvantage. It's not breaking news to me any of the stuff said about the rules today favoring offense and the pass.

I will say it's fair to question my last claim about career length, it's probably bullsh*t and is for the purpose of this convo.

Sacks are valued because that number also tells you by and large how many times you have disrupted the offensive play but failed to get home.  If the stats are that one in three QB hurries turns into a sack or one in four or whatever the number is then the statistic for sacks is also giving you a pretty good idea about those other numbers too.  They are simply different attributes of the same underlying quality or skill and it is that quality that is being highly valued by the league.

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He is worth leaps and bounds more than 39 million guaranteed. No number is important besides the guaranteed. That's all that matters. No one sees their full amount, 39 is a slap in the face. 

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Nice observations above about using the tag on a number one player at his position as an alternative to having a market negotiated contract.  But... I just want to point out there is an opportunity cost of sorts involved, that being that you don't get to use that tag on anyone else.  In a given year that may not make a difference because you want to tie up that great player, and htat means more than using the tag on another player. But using it on that one player for multiple years raises the odds you will have a situation come up involving another player that you would otherwise use the tag on, but can't.

That consideration might not be enough to outweigh the benefits of tagging a player year after year.  But it needs to be added into the analysis.

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