80's "I need fantasy assistance" thread

[chirorob]

Question for the group.

Week 1.  Burrow (probably without Chase) vs NE, or Goff vs the Rams.

[Jetsfan80]

8 minutes ago, chirorob said:

Question for the group.

Week 1.  Burrow (probably without Chase) vs NE, or Goff vs the Rams.

Burrow.  He’s at home and he’s still got plenty of weaponry.  

[RedBeardedSavage]

13 minutes ago, chirorob said:

Question for the group.

Week 1.  Burrow (probably without Chase) vs NE, or Goff vs the Rams.

Ooo, that's a good one, both QB's are home.

I'm leaning Burrow because

• I don't believe in Cinci's run game
• This is the first season since his rookie year that Burrow's had a full training camp
• I believe Chase signs by gametime (last year, Burrow signed his new deal 24 or so hours before the first game, and was only 3 years in the league @ the time)
• The Detroit running game could limit Goff's upside

But I can't deny, the Goff revenge angle is interesting and the Rams D is meh (@ best).

I think it's a close one, but I'm high on Burrow this year and I do believe Chase will be back for week 1. And any game where Burrow, Chase and Higgins are all healthy, I'll take that upside. 

Genuine coin toss, though. Good luck. 

[Jetsfan80]

18 hours ago, chirorob said:

So, who's your recommendation?

 

18 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Theyre already basically in order of my preference, but since they’re all kinda lottery tickets, it comes down to preference.  

Akers I have at the bottom, for instance, only because we don’t know for sure who the # 2 guy is in Houston, BUT I think it will be Akers and I think he’d be the far more valuable guy in that role than Pierce would be.  And in which case he would quickly vault up that list once we know for sure.  

 

Also throw Samaje Perine at or near the top of your RB waiver list - looks like he's expected to play the valuable "Jerick McKinnon role" for the KC offense.  That gives him standalone value PLUS handcuff value.  

Carson Steele ought to be on the list too but not as high - he's probably only someone you pick up if Pacheco gets hurt.  Perine you can prioritize right now, prior to Week 1 beginning.

[Jetsfan80]

@chirorob my updated top RB choices off waivers (assuming Jaylen Wright is gone - if he's still there, he's # 1):

Rank	Player	Position	Team
1	Ray Davis	RB	BUF
2	Samaje Perine	RB	KC
3	Bucky Irving	RB	TB
4	Jordan Mason	RB	SF

 

Next up (a couple tiers lower on my waiver list):  Braelon Allen, Khalil Herbert, Marshawn Lloyd, Kimani Vidal, Carson Steele, Tyrone Tracy, Cam Akers

[Jetsfan80]

13 hours ago, chirorob said:

Question for the group.

Week 1.  Burrow (probably without Chase) vs NE, or Goff vs the Rams.

 

13 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Ooo, that's a good one, both QB's are home.

I'm leaning Burrow because

• I don't believe in Cinci's run game
• This is the first season since his rookie year that Burrow's had a full training camp
• I believe Chase signs by gametime (last year, Burrow signed his new deal 24 or so hours before the first game, and was only 3 years in the league @ the time)
• The Detroit running game could limit Goff's upside

But I can't deny, the Goff revenge angle is interesting and the Rams D is meh (@ best).

I think it's a close one, but I'm high on Burrow this year and I do believe Chase will be back for week 1. And any game where Burrow, Chase and Higgins are all healthy, I'll take that upside. 

Genuine coin toss, though. Good luck. 

 

Definitely a tougher one than first glance.  Bringing Vegas into this one, no game on the Week 1 slate has a higher O/U than Rams/Lions (51.5).  When you look at implied point totals, they have Detroit scoring a league-high 27.5 points for the week.

The Bengals/Pats game only has a 40.5 O/U, but they do have Cincy scoring 25, which is tied for 6th-highest.  

Can't really go wrong with either option.  

[chirorob]

28 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

 

Definitely a tougher one than first glance.  Bringing Vegas into this one, no game on the Week 1 slate has a higher O/U than Rams/Lions (51.5).  When you look at implied point totals, they have Detroit scoring a league-high 27.5 points for the week.

The Bengals/Pats game only has a 40.5 O/U, but they do have Cincy scoring 25, which is tied for 6th-highest.  

Can't really go wrong with either option.  

Cincy also has a history of starting slowly, I'm going back and forth

[chirorob]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

@chirorob my updated top RB choices off waivers (assuming Jaylen Wright is gone - if he's still there, he's # 1):

Rank	Player	Position	Team
1	Ray Davis	RB	BUF
2	Samaje Perine	RB	KC
3	Bucky Irving	RB	TB
4	Jordan Mason	RB	SF

 

Next up (a couple tiers lower on my waiver list):  Braelon Allen, Khalil Herbert, Marshawn Lloyd, Kimani Vidal, Carson Steele, Tyrone Tracy, Cam Akers

Got Jaylen!

Appreciate the help.

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, chirorob said:

Got Jaylen!

Appreciate the help.

You won't regret it!  He's the perfect RB for McDaniels.  Once he gets his chance he's a smash play.

[Flightattendant]

Drafted Collins but then couldn't pass up the value on tank dell later in the draft. Should I float Collins for waddle to hedge my receivers?

[PS17]

Goff vs. Rams or Herbert vs. Raiders? Leaning Goff. 

Hopkins @ Bears or Palmer vs. Raiders? Leaning Palmer. 

[PS17]

8 minutes ago, Flightattendant said:

Drafted Collins but then couldn't pass up the value on tank dell later in the draft. Should I float Collins for waddle to hedge my receivers?

I’d keep Collins. If the Houston offense goes bonanza as we expect both Collins and Dell will be good. 

[Flightattendant]

5 minutes ago, PS17 said:

Goff vs. Rams or Herbert vs. Raiders? Leaning Goff. 

Hopkins @ Bears or Palmer vs. Raiders? Leaning Palmer. 

Herberts injury scares me

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, PS17 said:

Goff vs. Rams or Herbert vs. Raiders? Leaning Goff. 

Hopkins @ Bears or Palmer vs. Raiders? Leaning Palmer. 

Goff and it isn't close.

Hopkins over Palmer because I expect Tennessee to throw a LOT more than years past (not only based on personnel but the OC).  

[Lurker89]

On 9/2/2024 at 12:49 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

@chirorob @PS17 @Lurker89 @RedBeardedSavage

*** BREAKING NEWS ***

Edwards-Helaire will miss the first 4 games at minimum.  Carson Steele and Samaje Perine just became the “next men up” at RB for KC.  

Guess who already owned Steele in both their dynasty leagues.

[nycdan]

Finished my 12-team half-PPR draft.  Had the #1 pick.  Tried to talk myself into Breece but in the moment, I had no choice but to go CMC and pray he's healthy from game 2 on.

I was worried about the 1st turn for weeks and especially during the wait.  Ended up with Drake London / Nico Collins.  Didn't want to go Mike Evans (health).  Other options were MJH, DK Metcalf, Deebo or Davante.  Could have gone Achane or LaPorta as well but I felt like there was still a lot of value at those positions later on.  Got Trey McBride two rounds later and was happy with that.  Curious what you guys would have done there with those two picks at 24-25.

 

 

 

[PS17]

1 hour ago, nycdan said:

Finished my 12-team half-PPR draft.  Had the #1 pick.  Tried to talk myself into Breece but in the moment, I had no choice but to go CMC and pray he's healthy from game 2 on.

I was worried about the 1st turn for weeks and especially during the wait.  Ended up with Drake London / Nico Collins.  Didn't want to go Mike Evans (health).  Other options were MJH, DK Metcalf, Deebo or Davante.  Could have gone Achane or LaPorta as well but I felt like there was still a lot of value at those positions later on.  Got Trey McBride two rounds later and was happy with that.  Curious what you guys would have done there with those two picks at 24-25.

 

 

 

I would have done the exact same thing. McCaffrey is worth the risk as he’s a tier above anyone else in fantasy and Nico and London are probably my two favorite targets at the 2/3 turn. I’m also big on McBride. So kudos. 

[PS17]

@Jetsfan80

 

[nycdan]

Yeah, this is the time when those sudden injuries turn up and you just want to throw crap at your monitor.

[Jetsfan80]

On 9/2/2024 at 9:51 PM, chirorob said:

Question for the group.

Week 1.  Burrow (probably without Chase) vs NE, or Goff vs the Rams.

Chase back at practice.  As expected - players don’t want to give up game checks, lol.  Vegas expected it too, as there hasn’t been any spread or O/U movement since that news.  

Even moreso than before….Gotta go Burrow!

[chirorob]

On 9/3/2024 at 8:31 PM, nycdan said:

Finished my 12-team half-PPR draft.  Had the #1 pick.  Tried to talk myself into Breece but in the moment, I had no choice but to go CMC and pray he's healthy from game 2 on.

I was worried about the 1st turn for weeks and especially during the wait.  Ended up with Drake London / Nico Collins.  Didn't want to go Mike Evans (health).  Other options were MJH, DK Metcalf, Deebo or Davante.  Could have gone Achane or LaPorta as well but I felt like there was still a lot of value at those positions later on.  Got Trey McBride two rounds later and was happy with that.  Curious what you guys would have done there with those two picks at 24-25.

 

You almost have to go CMC.  One draft I did, he actually went #3, which was shocking.  Breece went 5 that draft.

I'd have gone CMC 1, Drake London (I think he could explode with a real QB).  I may have gone MJH, just cause he might go ballistic, he is that freakish, and Nico is going to have a crowded WR room.  MJH went 2nd round in both my drafts.

That being said, rookies are a crap shoot, and I think you did well. 

[chirorob]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Chase back at practice.  As expected - players don’t want to give up game checks, lol.  Vegas expected it too, as there hasn’t been any spread or O/U movement since that news.  

Even moreso than before….Gotta go Burrow!

I have gone back and forth like 9 times.

[nycdan]

1 hour ago, chirorob said:

You almost have to go CMC.  One draft I did, he actually went #3, which was shocking.  Breece went 5 that draft.

I'd have gone CMC 1, Drake London (I think he could explode with a real QB).  I may have gone MJH, just cause he might go ballistic, he is that freakish, and Nico is going to have a crowded WR room.  MJH went 2nd round in both my drafts.

That being said, rookies are a crap shoot, and I think you did well. 

Thanks.

I am more wary of  MJH than most because I just don't think that much of Kyler Murray.  Especially down the stretch when he seems to fold and I would need my guys most.  As it stands, I have McBride and that's enough exposure to Murray for me.

Agreed that London should benefit mightily from having Cousins over whatever trash was throwing him passes last year.

Texans WR room with Diggs is crowded, but Collins was the clear #1 so I am guessing Dell will suffer more than Collins from that.  I did make one mistake later on.  I thought I was queueing up Dalton Schultz for my watchlist but as I did, my turn came up and I accidentally drafted him.  Not really that early, but not what I meant to do.  Having to get those two picks off (1 minute per pick) at each turn was a little stressful.  Fortunately, he's my backup TE so I am not too upset about it.  I was thinking of grabbing the first D/ST off the board there.

Probably the best thing that happened was what came next.  Almost immediately after that pick, D/ST started going.  CLE, SF, BAL, NYJ went quickly.  I had to sweat out another 7 picks of teams that hadn't grabbed one yet.  DAL was the clear best remaining one.  Someone took BUF (dumb owners are so helpful) and then pick by pick I sweated it out.  My turn came and I got them at the bottom of round 12 and followed it up with J. Tucker to start the Kicker run.  

[PS17]

1 hour ago, nycdan said:

Thanks.

I am more wary of  MJH than most because I just don't think that much of Kyler Murray.  Especially down the stretch when he seems to fold and I would need my guys most.  As it stands, I have McBride and that's enough exposure to Murray for me.

Agreed that London should benefit mightily from having Cousins over whatever trash was throwing him passes last year.

Texans WR room with Diggs is crowded, but Collins was the clear #1 so I am guessing Dell will suffer more than Collins from that.  I did make one mistake later on.  I thought I was queueing up Dalton Schultz for my watchlist but as I did, my turn came up and I accidentally drafted him.  Not really that early, but not what I meant to do.  Having to get those two picks off (1 minute per pick) at each turn was a little stressful.  Fortunately, he's my backup TE so I am not too upset about it.  I was thinking of grabbing the first D/ST off the board there.

Probably the best thing that happened was what came next.  Almost immediately after that pick, D/ST started going.  CLE, SF, BAL, NYJ went quickly.  I had to sweat out another 7 picks of teams that hadn't grabbed one yet.  DAL was the clear best remaining one.  Someone took BUF (dumb owners are so helpful) and then pick by pick I sweated it out.  My turn came and I got them at the bottom of round 12 and followed it up with J. Tucker to start the Kicker run.  

I missed that MHJ was available. Probably would have gone MHJ/London in that case but I love Nico still. His analytical profile is off the charts. 

[RedBeardedSavage]

Umm, no one ever said it was an Achilles?

Ruh roh

[jgb]

On 8/30/2024 at 8:28 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

In the long run, the principles @PS17 have been advocating work, even in a game like fantasy football where there’s only 18 weeks and the margin for error is razor thin.

I used to be risk averse and target almost only the high floor, lower risk guys.  And while your team is unlikely to crash and burn that way, you’ll never contend and that’s what would always seem to happen to me.  

As @jgb has talked anbout often….Humans are conditioned to be highly risk averse because of millions of years of evolutionary programming.  And while that risk aversion kept the species going it now serves as a detriment in an arena like a mostly skill + some luck-based game like fantasy sports.

The heuristics that were naturally-selected because they prevented humans from getting eaten by bears in caves or lions on the Savannah are horrible at analyzing statistical likelihoods over a period longer than 15 minutes.

[jgb]

On 8/30/2024 at 6:35 PM, Dcat said:

Opinions requested

League:  Full PPR, 12 team.  slow draft:   I'm OTC in round 5.
My roster so far is: Lamb, Jacobs, Kelce, Mahomes.   

Was thinking RB here, for which I have narrowed down to these 2 RBs:   Aaron Jones or James Conner?  I have 90 minutes OTC to decide.

The available WRs here are Cooper, Higgins, McLaurin, Rice, Dell.

Maybe go that direction instead of RB?  Need some advice

@PS17 @Jetsfan80 @Lurker89 @RedBeardedSavage @jgb @nycdan and anyone else

EDIT:   I'm an idiot.  Mahomes and Kelce have week 6 byes.  So does Aaron Jones.  So there's a reason to not draft Jones. 

Don’t worry about bye week in draft get best talent. Too much changes between now and then 

[jgb]

On 8/30/2024 at 3:28 AM, Jetsfan80 said:

@Lurker89 @PS17 @jgb just wrapped up 10-team, 1 PPR, 2 Flex spot league's draft on ESPN.  Here were my picks:

• 1.5:  WR Justin Jefferson
• 2.16:  RB Jahmyr Gibbs
• 3.25:  RB De'Von Achane
• 4.36:  WR Jaylen Waddle
• 5.45:  WR DeVonta Smith
• 6.56:  WR Tank Dell
• 7.65:  WR Rashee Rice
• 8.76:  TE Kyle Pitts  (@RedBeardedSavage got him!)
• 9.85:  QB Kyler Murray
• 10.96:  RB Tony Pollard
• 11.105:  QB Jayden Daniels
• 12.116:  WR DeAndre Hopkins
• 13.125:  RB Blake Corum
• 14.136:  WR Jameson Williams
• 15.145:  RB Zach Charbonnet
• 16.156:  D/ST Bengals
• 17.165:  K Greg Zuerlein

 

Weak RB depth aside, I think I did quite well.  Kept hammering away at WRs because I simply couldn't pass on the value that kept falling to me (thanks ESPN ranks!)  With the 2 Flex spots I'll be able to start 4 WRs a week so...why not?

 

Top players available on waivers per my board:

1. RB Jaylen Wright
2. WR Romeo Doubs
3. RB Rico Dowdle
4. RB Ray Davis
5. QB Jared Goff
6. RB Bucky Irving
7. RB Jordan Mason
8. RB Braelon Allen
9. RB Khalil Herbert
10. RB Marshawn Lloyd
11. RB Kimani Vidal
12. RB Tyrone Tracy
13. RB Cam Akers
14. RB Tank Bigsby
15. TE Taysom Hill

It’s ok. Playoff bubble 

[jgb]

On 8/28/2024 at 9:14 AM, Jetsfan80 said:

For those who like streaming defenses, (or need an alternative in case they need to bench the elite D they grab earlier in the draft) here's my top choices late in drafts, using the Vegas Week 1 "implied points allowed" as a primary tool:

 

1.  Bengals D/ST

• Week 1 Opponent:  vs. NE (16 points)

Vegas awards Cincy with the expected fewest points allowed in Week 1, a number which hasn't really shifted much the last few weeks despite the QB uncertainty - I guess they expected Brissett all along?  If it's Maye who ends up getting the start over a banged up Brissett, this doesn't exactly move them down my ranks, either - a rookie QB on the road is a recipe for at least a decent day for the D.  Cincy is at least an average fantasy D in most season-long preseason ranks so it's not just the QB matchup that makes them a good choice - they can get sacks and turnovers against most opposing offenses.

However, keep in mind that the Bengals face KC in Week 2 so this is a 1-week rental, only.

 

2.  Seahawks D/ST

• Week 1 Opponent:  vs. DEN (18.25 pts)
• Week 2 Opponent:  @ NE

If you'd prefer a D you might be able to deploy for the first couple weeks of the season before disposing, Seattle appears to be your best choice.  Rookie QB Bo Nix at home followed by a meeting with the aforementioned Pats, albeit on the road, should prove fruitful, even for a middling unit (giggity).  There isn't an easier Week 1/Week 2 schedule combo out there for any fantasy D this year.

 

3.  Saints D/ST

• Week 1 Opponent:  vs. CAR (18)

The Saints check in with the 2nd-fewest implied points allowed for Week 1, but I'm hedging a bit here keeping a strong Saints defense only 3rd in these rankings.  I do think the hate on the Panther offense may be going a bit too far in Bryce Young's 2nd season.  Just because he isn't CJ Stroud doesn't mean Young is incapable of a year 2 leap.

That said, this is a fairly tough road matchup for Carolina against an expected top-10 ish fantasy D, so we'll see.  The Saints hit the road for Dallas in Week 2, so like Cincy, this is a 1-week rental as well.

 

4.  Chargers D/ST

• Week 1 Opponent:  vs. LV (19.5)
• Week 2 Opponent:  @ CAR

Another 2-week opportunity presents itself with the ground 'n' pound Harbaugh Chargers hosting the Raiders before a good week 2 matchup, albeit in the eastern time zone, with the Panthers.  My love affair for Minshew aside, @jgb, he does turn the ball over quite a bit, especially via the fumble.  

 

Other Week 1 rentals to consider:  ATL (vs. PIT); TB (vs. WSH); NYG (vs. MIN); CHI (vs. TEN)

 

 

Minshew is a big time fumbler 

[Jetsfan80]

47 minutes ago, jgb said:

It’s ok. Playoff bubble 

I'll take it!

[PS17]

I had the opportunity to add and stash Likely for nothing two years ago when he was a rookie - and I liked him a lot as a prospect. I kept some schlub ninth string WR over him and have been kicking myself since. Now have a washed Kelce starting for me. oh wellz

[nycdan]

I liked Lively too.  Thought about him as TE2 but the combination of Andrews ahead of him, Lamar not being a prolific passer, and Derrick Henry eating up goal line snaps, I assumed he would just mail in his 500 yards and 4 TDs again.  Well he opened a lot of eyes tonight.

He will be claimed in 100% of leagues by Tuesday morning.  And there is a 50% chance he will not repeat this performance again this season but who knows....

[PS17]

Rashee Rice with a 33% target share and over 100 yards… 💅🏻💅🏻

[Jetsfan80]

7 hours ago, PS17 said:

Rashee Rice with a 33% target share and over 100 yards… 💅🏻💅🏻

Potential league-winner upside right there.  Especially where I got him in one of my leagues - #65 overall pick!

[Jetsfan80]

On 8/30/2024 at 1:51 PM, Dcat said:

KC roster has 3 slot WRs: Rice, JuJu, Hardman.  And, oh yeah, Kelce.

WIdeouts are Hollywood and Worthy.   Mouths to feed there.  Kelce is the anchor.  Not stacking with Rice.  It's not a matter of "all-in" on KC or not. It's just not practical with that roster. 

Then there's Higgins and Cooper.  

 

On 8/30/2024 at 2:10 PM, Dcat said:

All right you motherfkcers.... I tripled stacked with Rice.  OMG what I have I done?

Seriously, thanks for the alternative reasoning.  It's always good to hear.  Made me re-think.  Really disagree on fading Kelce this year.  It might be his last, and he, and only he, is Mahomes' most trusted pass catcher and safety valve.  He will be utilized a lot. 

 

On 8/30/2024 at 2:15 PM, PS17 said:

You’ve used logic 

You’re welcome, Dcat.  😉

Hope you started him last night!