New York Jets Mafia Game Thread

[slats]

Well, if we have a role-blocker, he's missed both nights. If we have a bulletproof guy, no one's aimed at him. So they suck, anyway.

No comment on back-up roles, though? That makes the most sense to me. Or do you think we have two cops - one player, one FO - who get innocent/guilty results in completely different ways? Is that the idea you're trying to get across here?

I mean I guess it's possible, but isn't it really unlikely? And if it's meant to help balance out the game, it's failing miserably tonight. And unless Doggin's Tannenbaum, they've investigated four players between them and can't hit scum once? They suck, too, I guess.

[Pac]

I'm not sure I want to vote a potential cop with questionable sanity because doggin is telling me to. It's possible my reveal has him reeling and he's using his super wicked smahts to get us to do exactly what he wants. Do we really want to be the orchestra to his John Williams? Not for nothing he also has to know that he was my next target for an investigation tonight to test Vics sanity.

And where's WOODY? Has Doggin told him to go into hiding while he puts together a "script" for the town? I don't feel comfortable following his lead... at all.

[ZachEY]

Oh, one more thing. It's possible that Pac is scum and SMC is not, but only if Pac is a mafia investigator. So if we lynch Vic and Vic is innocent and sane, the Serial should kill Pac tonight, and unless he comes up as a mafia role-finder, we lynch SMC tomorrow.

So, in reality, what you're suggesting is taking out both of our (potential) town power roles in one game cycle.

[WoodyPaige]

Doggin.. I'm 100% behind lynching Vic..

BUT..

What I'm wondering is, since we didn't have a Vig claim, is it possible the town only has a 1 cop and 1 doc in a 16 player game with 2 NK'ers? I don't think so, there needs to be atleast 1 more power role for us to be confident that there isn't 2 cops this game...

Again, I really would like a vig to claim right now if out there.

Woody? JT? Norway? - any of you guys NK JVOR and Sharrow? Please come clean now..

I am honestly not the SK or vig.

[Pac]

I am honestly not the SK or vig.

I guess that settles that.

Can I vote Woody twice?

[WoodyPaige]

I'm not sure I want to vote a potential cop with questionable sanity because doggin is telling me to. It's possible my reveal has him reeling and he's using his super wicked smahts to get us to do exactly what he wants. Do we really want to be the orchestra to his John Williams? Not for nothing he also has to know that he was my next target for an investigation tonight to test Vics sanity.

And where's WOODY? Has Doggin told him to go into hiding while he puts together a "script" for the town? I don't feel comfortable following his lead... at all.

Oh calm yourself. I didn't check in here during the draft and I was busy at night. I am not conspiring in any way with Doggin.

[WoodyPaige]

I guess that settles that.

Can I vote Woody twice?

yes go for it

[Jets Things]

Oh calm yourself. I didn't check in here during the draft and I was busy at night. I am not conspiring in any way with Doggin.

+1

Golf + draft = no mafia

I am honestly not the SK or vig.

Trust you?

Vote: Vicious, my suspicion since day 1. There was another boo-hoo post from last night that put me over the edge.

[Doggin94it]

So, in reality, what you're suggesting is taking out both of our (potential) town power roles in one game cycle.

I'm sorry, but in what universe could Pac and Vic be "both town power roles"? Unless you think we're dealing with 2 sane cops (an option so vanishingly small that it shouldn't impact the analysis), one of the two is not a town power role.

Again, the options:

Vic is townie and sane (Pac is scum)

Vic is townie and non-sane (Pac is cop)

Vic is scum (Pac is cop)

If vic is a townie and not sane, he is not a "power role". Oh, if he was "insane" - i.e. got opposite results - he'd be useful (because his "innocents" would be guilty).

Now I know Vic can't be insane, because he accurately identified my alignment. But anyone who thinks I'm scum bum-rushing an insane cop needs to think about what that means. If Vic flips as an insane cop, Slats and I get lynched (because if he's getting opposite results, we're both obviously guilty).

In other words, again, lynching Vic would net the town 2 scum (me and slats). Of course, I know that's not the case (because I know I'm innocent) but even the rest of the town, who doesn't know that, can see that even that scenario benefits the town (since it would be a cop-for-two-scum trade, which is well worth making).

BTW, given that Yellin, of all people, has to know this already, his vigorous objections to the obvious town play have me convinced that if we lynch Vic and Vic flips scum, then we need to lynch EY tomorrow.

[Doggin94it]

I'm not sure I want to vote a potential cop with questionable sanity because doggin is telling me to.

And I don't want you to do it because I'm telling you to. I want you to work out the scenarios for yourself. You know your own sanity and alignment, and I assume you are going to assert that you are the sane cop. Taking that as a given, what are the options for Vic's sanity and alignment?

1) Non-sane cop, 2) Scum/SK, 3) Sane cop (right? If you can think of any other possibilities, throw 'em out there).

If Option 1 is correct, what does lynching Vicious do? I'll give you my answer, but you should come up with your own.

(My answer: It tells us Vicious' sanity, either insane - all results opposite of reality [guilty for innocent and vice versa] - naive [all results innocent, whether the player is guilty or innocent] - or random [exactly what it sounds like - results can be either guilty or innocent for any player]. If Vic is a Naive Cop or a Random Cop, his results are useless and Pac must be the real cop [because no mod would leave the town entirely cop-less]. If Vic is Insane [which I know not to be the case, but leaving it in for the rest of you] then you lynch me and slats, then wonder whether BG would give the town two cops whose results provide information. Pac and SMC are either both scum or both town.

Also, doc protects Pac at night)

If Option 2 is correct, what does lynching Vic do?

(My answer: yay for the town - we've lynched scum/SK, Pac is confirmed as cop and receives Dr. protection, we hunt for more scum [and, IMO, if Vic flips scum, we lynch Yellin next)

If Option 3 is correct, what does lynching Vic do?

(My answer: confirms Vic's investigation results, identifies Pac as scum. If they are really both sane cops, we lose, because we'll kill Pac/SMC next, but the odds of that are extremely small, and if we lose because the mod created an absurdly unbalanced game setup, I can live with that).

Again, answer those 3 questions for yourself, then decide whether I'm right that the risk of killing Vic (we lynch the town's sane cop) is worth it.

[Doggin94it]

Here's my problem, in a 16 player game I don't see how the town can have just a doc and a cop. To weak a setup, unless there is only 3 scum...

There almost has to be atleast 1 more town power role out there.. Could it be a second cop though???

Or only 3 scum + the SK, in which case all my math is off and we could afford to let Pac and Vic play out one more day. But I don't think we can bet on that.

[slats]

If Option 3 is correct, what does lynching Vic do?

(My answer: confirms Vic's investigation results, identifies Pac as scum. If they are really both sane cops, we lose, because we'll kill Pac/SMC next, but the odds of that are extremely small, and if we lose because the mod created an absurdly unbalanced game setup, I can live with that).

Again, answer those 3 questions for yourself, then decide whether I'm right that the risk of killing Vic (we lynch the town's sane cop) is worth it.

Here's the big problem that the rest of the townies have to decide for themselves: If Vic comes up clean, what's the probability that there's a godfather in this game and that Doggin or I am it?

Because if you think that might be the case, if we lynch Vic and he comes up sane cop the town really has nothing.

Now, if Pac is our cop, the fact that he just gets a name is interesting. Bleedin' said in the beginning that the team has been infiltrated by rival players. So unless the godfather role hands Pac the wrong name there isn't a GF. I guess that's a possibility, but it doesn't seem likely to me that BG would give him this name fetching ability just to use it to screw with him/us - Does it?

[slats]

Sorry, poor job of quoting above. I'm quoting Doggin above...

If Option 3 is correct, what does lynching Vic do?

(My answer: confirms Vic's investigation results, identifies Pac as scum. If they are really both sane cops, we lose, because we'll kill Pac/SMC next, but the odds of that are extremely small, and if we lose because the mod created an absurdly unbalanced game setup, I can live with that).

Again, answer those 3 questions for yourself, then decide whether I'm right that the risk of killing Vic (we lynch the town's sane cop) is worth it.

[slats]

Or only 3 scum + the SK, in which case all my math is off and we could afford to let Pac and Vic play out one more day. But I don't think we can bet on that.

I also don't think it would be prudent to guess that there's fewer scum. I think we need to get this lynch right. I'll pretty happily take scum or SK today.

What are the odds that Vic and Pac are both telling the truth? That's the big question. For Vic's case, he's giving you me and Doggin and confirmed innocents, and me and Doggin are very pleased to tell you that those results are accurate. But what else? His word? SMC handed him the Tony Richardson persona, and the fact that he gets results in the form of "bleeding green or not," -again- is seeming silly to me.

Pac's case is stronger with SMC confirming, and the fact that he told us he was a FO name at a time when the opening scene suggested the game had nothing but players in it. BG had to come back and give his "oops," on that one. SMC could be a scum teammate, but the FO personnel name is a big check in Pac's favor, IMHO.

I have to say that as much as I like the idea of Vic confirming my innocence, if only one of these cops is telling the truth... it's probably Pac.

[CTM]

I would really like to lynch Vic, but I kind of want to know if we have another power role on our side first.. (Namely a Vig)

[Vicious89x]

Really?

What changed for you between last night around this time and now?

Yesterday, when Pac's role had everyone queasy, you came right out and said we should go after Norway. A coincidence that he's Doggin's favorite target, too?

I have to tell you, I don't like this. I don't know which way to go. Pac's role reveal seems much more real today - but then again he's had a couple days to work it out. Maybe he did hook up with scum partner SMC as Doggin suggested earlier to concoct this alternate cop role...

But I don't think so.

Bleedin confirmed that there are non-players in this game. There was nothing about that in the game set-up. That really helps Pac's case. The fact that he has a power role that gets names, and he found another FO name that he thinks could be the doc makes sense. So far, everyone who's died is a roleless player. It's extremely compelling.

The idea that BG tells you that your investigations "bleed green," or not could be true - or could be another Peter Petrocelli. Because when I think of it now, it seems really silly.

This post here says it all. If I die, this guy is the godfather.

What changes slats is some people seem more scummy from one day to the next. I explained why I voted doggin. The fact he was telling me "who to investigate" felt like scum manipulating a cop, so I took a look at him. He's clean. You came back clean as well but perhaps that godfather role you happened to throw out truly is yours.

[Vicious89x]

I would really like to lynch Vic, but I kind of want to know if we have another power role on our side first.. (Namely a Vig)

I dont really get why. But whatever, I've stated my case, I'm the cop. If you guys want to get played like a fiddle that's your call. I'll keep harping on it till I'm done, I've investigated 2 people who came back innocent, the way it looks now is that slats is the godfather, leading the wagon on this after he came back with a innocent investigation.

[CTM]

Pac why did you investigate SMC?

[slats]

This post here says it all. If I die, this guy is the godfather.

What changes slats is some people seem more scummy from one day to the next. I explained why I voted doggin. The fact he was telling me "who to investigate" felt like scum manipulating a cop, so I took a look at him. He's clean. You came back clean as well but perhaps that godfather role you happened to throw out truly is yours.

I want to be right about this because if I'm not that could very well be the play of the town. And if you're innocent and get lynched, and they come back and lynch the innocent me tomorrow - the town pretty much loses.

Look at it from an outside perspective if you can. Pac's claim looks better than yours right now. I wish it was the other way around, but in my eyes it's not.

[Doggin94it]

Here's the big problem that the rest of the townies have to decide for themselves: If Vic comes up clean, what's the probability that there's a godfather in this game and that Doggin or I am it?

Because if you think that might be the case, if we lynch Vic and he comes up sane cop the town really has nothing.

Actually, if Vic comes up sane cop, the town gets Pac and SMC on a platter

[Doggin94it]

I dont really get why. But whatever, I've stated my case, I'm the cop. If you guys want to get played like a fiddle that's your call. I'll keep harping on it till I'm done, I've investigated 2 people who came back innocent, the way it looks now is that slats is the godfather, leading the wagon on this after he came back with a innocent investigation.

Vic, if you really are a cop, you know that either Slats or I must be 100% innocent (I assume you'll admit that there's 0% chance all scum are investigation-immune, right?). So at the very least, you have 1 confirmed townie who's calling for your lynch (whether you think its me or Slats doesn't matter; personally, if you're sane, I'd assume we're both townies, but even if Slats is the GF, or someone thinks I am, there's at least 1 analytical townie behind this play).

Which means nobody is getting played like a fiddle (or, my personal favorite quote, "like a harp from hell"), because this isn't a mafia play.

If you're the cop, you know that Pac is scum (since, like multiple GFs on one scum team, there's roughly 0% chance that the town has two sane cops). And if Pac is scum, so is SMC (again, unless Pac is a name-hunter mafia member, which seems unlikely). So, if you're the cop, odds are your death gives us two mafia members. That's a fair trade for the town (especially with the scum already down 1) and a damn good job by you as the cop.

[Doggin94it]

Pac why did you investigate SMC?

Chan, you've got the analytical skills to catch any holes in my plan, and you're suspicious of me - am I missing anything? Overlooking a possibility? Off in estimating the results of each possibility?

And what do you make of Yellin's sudden lack of comprehension?

[CTM]

Chan, you've got the analytical skills to catch any holes in my plan, and you're suspicious of me - am I missing anything? Overlooking a possibility? Off in estimating the results of each possibility?

And what do you make of Yellin's sudden lack of comprehension?

As soon as I realized Pac was claiming cop and not rolefinder I've wanted to lynch Vic. Beed saying it since Friday night or Sat morning..

My problem is that I can't imagine a set up with 16 players and only 2 town power roles, particularly with a SK. That's giving me a little pause to be honest. Maybe we have 2 cops, and 2 god fathers? I really gotta think Bleedin added some kind of twist to this game and that would be a decent one as he'd assume we'd end up lynching both cops if we weren't careful...

[Doggin94it]

As soon as I realized Pac was claiming cop and not rolefinder I've wanted to lynch Vic. Beed saying it since Friday night or Sat morning..

My problem is that I can't imagine a set up with 16 players and only 2 town power roles, particularly with a SK. That's giving me a little pause to be honest. Maybe we have 2 cops, and 2 god fathers? I really gotta think Bleedin added some kind of twist to this game and that would be a decent one as he'd assume we'd end up lynching both cops if we weren't careful...

It's possible - which is why if Vic comes up sane cop, the SK needs to take Pac out tonight; if there are 2 cops, we'd need to know that before tomorrow's lynch (since we'd be at endgame).

But I doubt that there are 2 sane cops. Putting a naive cop or random cop in the game would be a pretty big twist, too - that role hasn't been included in any JI or JN game - and since Vic is the only one of the two who has a possibility of altered sanity . . .

[CTM]

I think I like Woody as scum right now..

[ZachEY]

I'm sorry, but in what universe could Pac and Vic be "both town power roles"? Unless you think we're dealing with 2 sane cops (an option so vanishingly small that it shouldn't impact the analysis), one of the two is not a town power role.

Again, the options:

Vic is townie and sane (Pac is scum)

Vic is townie and non-sane (Pac is cop)

Vic is scum (Pac is cop)

If vic is a townie and not sane, he is not a "power role". Oh, if he was "insane" - i.e. got opposite results - he'd be useful (because his "innocents" would be guilty).

Now I know Vic can't be insane, because he accurately identified my alignment. But anyone who thinks I'm scum bum-rushing an insane cop needs to think about what that means. If Vic flips as an insane cop, Slats and I get lynched (because if he's getting opposite results, we're both obviously guilty).

In other words, again, lynching Vic would net the town 2 scum (me and slats). Of course, I know that's not the case (because I know I'm innocent) but even the rest of the town, who doesn't know that, can see that even that scenario benefits the town (since it would be a cop-for-two-scum trade, which is well worth making).

BTW, given that Yellin, of all people, has to know this already, his vigorous objections to the obvious town play have me convinced that if we lynch Vic and Vic flips scum, then we need to lynch EY tomorrow.

My objections are not vigorous, I'm simply not ready to jump on board to lynch a potential cop, which leads us to two other lynches sponsored by you.

I simply don't trust you. Remember when you said, 'win spectacularly, or die trying'. This sounds exactly like that type of power play.

I also don't get how these plays 'net' anything. Vic could be scum, and buddying up with two people in order to eventually make a 2 for 1 trade. Same with Pac.

So, again, it's not that I just don't get it, it's just that it sounds an awful lot like your setting us up.

[Doggin94it]

My objections are not vigorous, I'm simply not ready to jump on board to lynch a potential cop, which leads us to two other lynches sponsored by you.

I simply don't trust you. Remember when you said, 'win spectacularly, or die trying'. This sounds exactly like that type of power play.

I also don't get how these plays 'net' anything. Vic could be scum, and buddying up with two people in order to eventually make a 2 for 1 trade. Same with Pac.

So, again, it's not that I just don't get it, it's just that it sounds an awful lot like your setting us up.

Seriously?

If Vic is scum, then killing Vic "nets" us a scum. Pac is confirmed as cop, Slats and I come under suspicion for being named by scum, Pac gets doc protection tonight and we are farther away from endgame.

If Vic is the sane cop, then Pac and SMC are 99.99% confirmed as scum, and we kill pac tonight (serial does) and lynch SMC tomorrow (unless Pac is revealed as a role finder scum). Again, we stave off endgame by at least 1 day (by NK'ing scum).

If Vic is a townie but not sane, then Pac is again confirmed as cop, SMC is confirmed as innocent, and Pac gets doc protection tonight and we at least don't need to worry about making this same decision between them at endgame. Plus, Vic's loss doesn't hurt us any more than the loss of any other townie at endgame -1

The only way this move hurts us is if Pac and Vic are both sane townie cops.

What do you think the odds of that are?

[slats]

The only way this move hurts us is if Pac and Vic are both sane townie cops.

What do you think the odds of that are?

Right now, this seems like the best case. But I'm not thrilled with lynching Vic, either, I'm open to other ideas.

I think I like Woody as scum right now..

If you've got a good case to present, please do so.

I'm just about out of here for the day, may not be back until tomorrow morning. There's no need to rush this lynch anyway, this one needs to be right. Keep talking! I'd love to have some meat to catch up on when I get back.

[ZachEY]

What do you think the odds of that are?

The odds are small.

I had thought at some point in your first game that there was any rhyme or reason to it. There wasn't.

If we're going to jump around playing game theories, why are we assuming the most obvious, as not one single game yet has gone that way?

I also think the serial killer doesn't have much motivation to do what you say. In fact, he'd be doing a service to the town, and hurting himself.

[Doggin94it]

The odds are small.

I had thought at some point in your first game that there was any rhyme or reason to it. There wasn't.

If we're going to jump around playing game theories, why are we assuming the most obvious, as not one single game yet has gone that way?

WIFOM, pure WIFOM.

This argument says "yes, Doggin, what you are saying makes sense, but what if there's something nobody's thought of that makes it a bad play"

Sorry, Yellin, but the only way to win in this game is to make the smart play based on the information you have at the time.

Making a stupid play (i.e. One that doesn't make sense based on known information) in hopes of outguessing the mod is a path to disaster. And I know you know this.

I also think the serial killer doesn't have much motivation to do what you say. In fact, he'd be doing a service to the town, and hurting himself.

False, and again, I know you know this.

The SK loses if the mafia wins. Which means at this point, the SK needs to play like a townie (i.e. look to hurt scum) not like a mafioso (i.e. look to hurt the town) if he wants any chance of winning. That applies until 2 more mafioso die; at that point, the Serial wins unless he's lynched or killed (serial always wins if tied with mafia) so he can play like scum again.

So, if vic flips sane cop and NKing Pac is the best way to avoid a mafia win the next day (which you seem to agree it would be), the its in the serial's interest to NK pac.

Btw, posting from BB on my way to the game, so I'll be quiet soon

[ZachEY]

False, and again, I know you know this.

The SK loses if the mafia wins. Which means at this point, the SK needs to play like a townie (i.e. look to hurt scum) not like a mafioso (i.e. look to hurt the town) if he wants any chance of winning. That applies until 2 more mafioso die; at that point, the Serial wins unless he's lynched or killed (serial always wins if tied with mafia) so he can play like scum again.

So, if vic flips sane cop and NKing Pac is the best way to avoid a mafia win the next day (which you seem to agree it would be), the its in the serial's interest to NK pac.

Btw, posting from BB on my way to the game, so I'll be quiet soon

Not false. The SK knows you're going to push for Pac tomorrow. So, why would he possibly take out the guy who's most likely to be lynched tomorrow.

Either No Kill or Someone else. Killing Pac makes him a more likely target the next day.

and I THINK YOU KNOW THIS.

[Doggin94it]

Not false. The SK knows you're going to push for Pac tomorrow. So, why would he possibly take out the guy who's most likely to be lynched tomorrow.

Either No Kill or Someone else. Killing Pac makes him a more likely target the next day.

and I THINK YOU KNOW THIS.

Because there's a chance, however minimal, that even if Vic is a sane cop, Pac is too. In that case, if we lynch Pac tomorrow, we lose - and 'we' includes the serial.

Which means that if Vic flips sane cop, we (and again, this includes the serial) need to know Pac's role and alignment before tomorrow's lynch. The only way that happens is if the serial NKs Pac.

Ergo, if Vic is a sane cop, the serial will NK pac (unless he wants to lose)

And, since if Pac and SMC are scum and die, the serial will at worst be 1-1 with the mafia, the serial gets to happily kill anyone he wants for the rest of the game.

So why in the world would the serial NOT NK pac if vic flips sane cop?

[Bleedin Green]

Vote Count:

WoodyPaige (2) - Pac2566, Norway

Vicious (2) - Doggin, Jets Things

Norway (1) - Vicious89x

With 10 players remaining, it takes 6 to cut.

[Doggin94it]

Vote Count:

WoodyPaige (3) - Pac2566, Norway, Jets Things

Norway (1) - Vicious89x

Vicious (1) - Doggin

With 10 players remaining, it takes 6 to cut.

BG - Jets things voted Vicious

[Bleedin Green]

BG - Jets things voted Vicious

I knew that too... I'm just out of it. don't mind me. sorry.