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Cimini: Trade Rumblings, Will the Jets Move Down?


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Trade rumblings: Will Jets move down?

April, 24, 2011

Apr 24

10:26

AM ET

By Rich Cimini

Suddenly, there is this notion that the Jets are going to be presented all these wonderful opportunities to trade down in the first round because teams below them are desperate to move up for quarterbacks. I'm not buying it.

The Jets own the 30th pick, and there are at least five teams below them that might want a quarterback -- the Bills (34), Bengals (35), Cards (38), Titans (39) and Redskins (41). In theory, that should raise the value of the Jets' pick, right?

Not necessarily.

First of all, you have to figure one of these teams will get their QB (probably Blaine Gabbert) at the top of the first round, assuming the Panthers take Cam Newton No. 1 overall. Secondly, the teams still in the market will be aiming higher than the Jets. Everybody knows the Seahawks (25) need a QB, which is why QB-needy teams will be trying to leap-frog the Seahawks. That means they will be calling the Eagles (23) and Saints (24) to make deals.

Don't be surprised if the Bills trade up to the Eagles' spot for someone like Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder, among a second tier that includes Ryan Mallet, Jake Locker and Colin Kaepernick. Some people think a total of five could be chosen in the first round.

If the Jets did receive an offer, it's still hard to picture them trading out of the first round. It would be a buzz kill, and we know the Jets are all about making a splash. It's not in Mike Tannenbaum's DNA to trade down, and he shouldn't -- as long as he can get a player at 30 with a first-round grade. Yeah, the Jets could use a couple of extra picks, but is it worth the risk of losing a quality player just to gain, say, fourth- and sixth-round picks for dropping several spots? In other words, don't get too cute.

ARMS RACE: Tannenbaum subscribes to the Ron Wolf theory on quarterbacks, so it wouldn't be a shock if they draft one in the later rounds. When he was the Packers' GM, Wolf drafted developmental quarterbacks, like Matt Hasselbeck and Aaron Brooks, even though he had Brett Favre. Years later, he was able to trade them, getting a nice return on his investment.

TUNA TIME: Looking forward to Bill Parcells' draft show Tuesday night on ESPN (9:30 p.m.). Parcells used to take some criticism for his acumen as a personnel man, but he was responsible for two franchise-changing drafts. In 1995 with the Patriots, he drafted Ty Law, Ted Johnson and Curtis Martin. In 2000 with the Jets, he picked Shaun Ellis, John Abraham, Chad Pennington and Laveranues Coles.

Parcells, dispensing advice years ago to one of his proteges, Tannenbaum, said the person in charge of the draft room should try to imagine himself as sitting above the room, looking down on the entire operation and listening to all opinions and suggestions before making a final decison. Funny, but that doesn't sound like Parcells' management style. He wasn't afraid to get in someone's face -- and often did.

DRAFT REPORT: A recent analysis, conducted by Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com, rated the Jets as the fourth-best drafting team over the last five years. The last five drafts, a total of 27 picks by Tannenbaum, have produced nine starters, including three Pro Bowlers -- D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Nick Mangold and Darrelle Revis. But it's a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately business, and last year's draft (Kyle Wilson, Vlad Ducasse, etc.) leaves a lot to be desired.

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If the Jets did receive an offer, it's still hard to picture them trading out of the first round. It would be a buzz kill, and we know the Jets are all about making a splash. It's not in Mike Tannenbaum's DNA to trade down, and he shouldn't -- as long as he can get a player at 30 with a first-round grade.

So if the Jets can get a quality player at 30, they should stay put, but if not, they should trade down, but they probably won't, because that would be a buzz kill.

I know I'm not exactly in uncharted territory here, but it staggers me that Rich Cimini is gainfully employed as a journalist.

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So if the Jets can get a quality player at 30, they should stay put, but if not, they should trade down, but they probably won't, because that would be a buzz kill.

I know I'm not exactly in uncharted territory here, but it staggers me that Rich Cimini is gainfully employed as a journalist.

ESPN doesn't employ journalists, so it's ok.

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How do you judge last year's draft already? Also, if the Jets are 4th, how much higher would they have been without the Gholston pick? You figure that's gotta kill the average.

yea for sure Serph...look at who we're projected to go after, a pass rushing DE or OLB. That busted pick still smarts today. If Gholston turned into what we needed him to be we would really be able to take the BPA at any position.

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We last traded down in the first round in 2005. Before that it was 1997. Anybody remember either of those? Everybody wants to trade down every year even though hilarity ensues every time we try, which may be why the current front office has never done it.

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Biggest problem is losing a year on the player's rookie contract (seems a likely meeting of the minds with the max years for first rounders & those drafted later). In other words, if we trade down, I hope it isn't like 5-8 slots. Contract redo time will be after 3 years instead of 4. Let's say we're lucky and after 2 years of growing pains we see that we really got something good. So we get one year at good cap $ and then it's time to redo a contract. If we're dropping down enough to pick up another 2nd or for a high 3rd then I'm on board (obviously depending on who's available at #30 and who we could still get 10 picks later).

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