Kickoff Return TDs this Season

[ZachEY]

In 2010... 23 TDs

In 2009... 19 TDs

In 2008... 13 TDs

In 2007... 25 TDs

(Stats from ESPN.com)

Now, with the new rules, how many KR TDs do you think we will see this season?

I'm assuming a major drop off, no?

[slats]

In 2010... 23 TDs

In 2009... 19 TDs

In 2008... 13 TDs

In 2007... 25 TDs

(Stats from ESPN.com)

Now, with the new rules, how many KR TDs do you think we will see this season?

I'm assuming a major drop off, no?

I don't expect any drop off at all.

It's already a tiny percentage of KOR's. That tiny percentage isn't likely to take too much of a hit. If 20 kickoffs out of -say- 1600 a year are returned for TD's in any given season, I just don't see five yards having much of an -if any- impact on that stat.

[flgreen]

In an interview with Westhoff I read some time ago he said he expected that, I think it was a 30% increase in touch backs.

I would think that the TD's would be proportionate. Guess 11-15.

[ZachEY]

I don't expect any drop off at all.

It's already a tiny percentage of KOR's. That tiny percentage isn't likely to take too much of a hit. If 20 kickoffs out of -say- 1600 a year are returned for TD's in any given season, I just don't see five yards having much of an -if any- impact on that stat.

Is it really just 5 yards though? To me, it's a critical 5 yards that will greatly increase the amount of touchbacks and thusly, significantly decrease the number of run-back opportunities. Those 5 yards are the difference between 2 yards deep in the endzone and 7 yards deep. I think that's an enormous difference.

I'm also wondering if, on a smaller scale, there will be more onside kick opportunities. I think 5 yards makes less of a difference there, but also wouldn't be surprised if you saw more surprise kicks with another 5 yard safety net for your defense.

[slats]

Is it really just 5 yards though? To me, it's a critical 5 yards that will greatly increase the amount of touchbacks and thusly, significantly decrease the number of run-back opportunities. Those 5 yards are the difference between 2 yards deep in the endzone and 7 yards deep. I think that's an enormous difference.

I'm also wondering if, on a smaller scale, there will be more onside kick opportunities. I think 5 yards makes less of a difference there, but also wouldn't be surprised if you saw more surprise kicks with another 5 yard safety net for your defense.

I don't think it's a big deal at all in regards to return TD's. Overall returns may be down, but those 20 golden opportunities to score will still be there.

It's not like all kickers were hitting the endzone with regularity. That five yards might be the difference between the 12 yard line and the 7 yard line, too.

Teams willing to pull a surprise onsides kick don't care all that much what yard line they're on, and teams that need an onsides kick don't care, either.

[Bleedin Green]

I don't expect any drop off at all.

It's already a tiny percentage of KOR's. That tiny percentage isn't likely to take too much of a hit. If 20 kickoffs out of -say- 1600 a year are returned for TD's in any given season, I just don't see five yards having much of an -if any- impact on that stat.

Agree with this. Weren't the numbers supposed to take a nosedive last year because of the whole change to the wedge blocking rules? That obviously didn't happen, so I'm not sure why everyone is convinced this will make a world of difference either. If you think about it, it's not like it was particularly common for any of those return TDs to be coming from out of the back of the endzone so now they'll suddenly be unreturnable. I don't think with all else being equal on a particular return, the ball dropping 3 yards into the endzone as opposed to at the 2 yard line is going to make the difference between a TD or not.

While I'm sure early in the season the touchback numbers will be pretty damn high, if anything part of me wonders if once it gets cold if returns might be even more significant. You know there are going to be kickers who will be drilling line drives every time thinking they can boot it out of the endzone every time, but when the ball stops traveling as far and the returner gets his hand on the ball with plenty of room to run, things could get interesting. Especially since we could definitely see poorer execution on coverage units come out of this as well.

[Aqua4ever04]

I think the real question is, how many drives will start at the 20 and in? A lot of return man are going to gamble bringing it out from deep a and get cut down around the 10 or 15 yard line.

[Klecko73isGod]

How many were there per year from 1980-1993?

[visajets]

In the entire NFL or just the NYJETS?