Atlanta selects Penix 8th overall

[GreenFish]

One of the most fascinating picks in the 1st round was Atlanta drafting Michael Penix Jr QB at 8th overall.

They just signed Kirk Cousins to a 4 year $180 million contract.

Everyone knows the importance of the QB position. But it’s often debated how best to go about filling the position. Do you go with the GB model or the draft and play the guy right away.

What are your thoughts on the Penix pick? Do you think Atlanta made a smart decision?

[Beerfish]

Just an awful awful decision and I say that liking penix a lot and feeling he will be 3 or 4 best QB in the class.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

If they believe he'll be the future, then it's worth it. 

[slats]

They’re now “hoping” to pay Cousins $100M fully guaranteed for two years of Penix mentorship, then cutting him before the real money starts to hit ($57.5M cap hits in each of his the last two seasons). I mean, it was probably always a two year deal, but if you’re making that sort of investment, I’d think you’d want to do everything you can to be successful with him now. That team needs defensive help. 

[rbstern]

First, I'm not sold on Pennix:  I think his throwing motion is too wonky and slow, with a very low windup, for the NFL.  I think he's going to be a strip sack vending machine.

Next, the Falcons could have justified a late first or second round pick, after trade back, on a development QB, or waited until next year.  They had the perfect setup to get a lot of good capital in a trade, still pick a highly rated, starting quality defender, which they need (particularly the secondary, or edge).

Now they've created a self-fulfilling controversy:  When Cousins hits an inevitable struggle stretch, particularly if the playoffs are on the line, they will be beset with calls to start Pennix, before he's ready, if ever.

 

[NYJCAP2]

LOVE the idea and the player. HATE the logistics.

That said, Cousins could get hurt this year and they’ll look like geniuses.

[GreenFish]

5 minutes ago, rbstern said:

First, I'm not sold on Pennix:  I think his throwing motion is too wonky and slow, with a very low windup, for the NFL.  I think he's going to be a strip sack vending machine.

Next, the Falcons could have justified a late first or second round pick, after trade back, on a development QB, or waited until next year.  They had the perfect setup to get a lot of good capital in a trade, still pick a highly rated, starting quality defender, which they need (particularly the secondary, or edge).

Now they've created a self-fulfilling controversy:  When Cousins hits an inevitable struggle stretch, particularly if the playoffs are on the line, they will be beset with calls to start Pennix, before he's ready, if ever.

 

Good point. They likely had trade down options. So they gave up the opportunity to add more capital.

[Joe W. Namath]

If they love Pennix, its a great move.  Cousins is 36 and only has a 2 year deal.

[Sperm Edwards]

20 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

One of the most fascinating picks in the 1st round was Atlanta drafting Michael Penix Jr QB at 8th overall.

They just signed Kirk Cousins to a 4 year $180 million contract.

Everyone knows the importance of the QB position. But it’s often debated how best to go about filling the position. Do you go with the GB model or the draft and play the guy right away.

What are your thoughts on the Penix pick? Do you think Atlanta made a smart decision?

The GB model wasn’t even the GB model. They thought starting Rodgers was reaching its natural end. Had they known he was about to be the NFL MVP the first two seasons immediately after drafting Love, and get narrowly bounced from the playoffs in both seasons, I very much doubt they still would’ve used that first rounder on Love, which may very well have cost them another Lombardi.

[slats]

7 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Good point. They likely had trade down options. So they gave up the opportunity to add more capital.

Have to wonder if the Jets made an offer. They could’ve done to the Jets what the Jets did to the Vikes; added capital and gotten their guy, regardless. 

[NYJCAP2]

18 minutes ago, slats said:

They’re now “hoping” to pay Cousins $100M fully guaranteed for two years of Penix mentorship, then cutting him before the real money starts to hit ($57.5M cap hits in each of his the last two seasons). I mean, it was probably always a two year deal, but if you’re making that sort of investment, I’d think you’d want to do everything you can to be successful with him now. That team needs defensive help. 

What’s Cousins dead money after the 2 years $25M?

[Columbia Jet Fan]

1) The way they approached the QB position is insanely stupid - If you loved Penix WAY more than the consensus - that is fine. If you believe he is your QB of the future you grab him and develop him. But you don't sign coming off an achilles injury to a four year deal that will have three years minimum of cap resources. You sign Brisett or something and allocate those resources elsewhere. 

2) If Penix ends up being a top half of the league QB - it'll work out. No matter how or where you get them - if you end up getting a top QB - its worth it. 

3) It may be slightly underrated here just how bad this may have F'ed the Jets. Everyone pegged Atlanta as a D team. If they were - presumably they would have been fine sliding back to 10 and picking up a pick or two and having their choice of either the first or second D player off the board. If they were taking a QB my guess is they were never moving. 

Still feels like even if they wanted Penix they could have swapped out to 10 b/c who is jumping up to 9 to select Penix? If JD didn't call I'd fire him if they truly wanted Rome - but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt here and ATL just wasn't going to move. If so - really sucks for the Jets. (I still very much like Olu and am glad we took him - but like everyone else wanted Rome). 

[Sperm Edwards]

17 minutes ago, slats said:

They’re now “hoping” to pay Cousins $100M fully guaranteed for two years of Penix mentorship, then cutting him before the real money starts to hit ($57.5M cap hits in each of his the last two seasons). I mean, it was probably always a two year deal, but if you’re making that sort of investment, I’d think you’d want to do everything you can to be successful with him now. That team needs defensive help. 

It’s a lot of cash & cap space for a seat warmer. 

[JetsMetsDevilsPA]

2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It’s a lot of cash & cap space for a seat warmer. 

Agreed.  Penix is already 23 and if Cousins balls out and actually plays his 4 years, Penix will be 27 before he even see's the field.  LOL.

[NYJCAP2]

6 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It’s a lot of cash & cap space for a seat warmer. 

Author Blank is in a race against Father Time. 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 minute ago, JetsMetsDevilsPA said:

Agreed.  Penix is already 23 and if Cousins balls out and actually plays his 4 years, Penix will be 27 before he even see's the field.  LOL.

If it works out then it works out, and there’ll definitely be copy cats out there if so. Right now it’s against the grain. You’re either trying to win a championship the upcoming season or two or you’re in long term future planning. Trying to do both, with premium veteran QB money and another premium draft pick, seems like trying to get a little bit pregnant. 

[Adoni Beast]

If you feel that you have a chance to get a franchise quarterback you take it, regardless of current roster.

Atlanta will

• get two good years out of Cousins while Penix  learns

• assumes / hopes they won’t be picking in the top 10 after those couple of years

• avoids having to scramble in free agency, trades, or trade up in the draft down the road for a QB once Cousins is toast which is probably sooner than most think

It’s a smart move. Be proactive with the most important position in sports.

[Adoni Beast]

5 minutes ago, JetsMetsDevilsPA said:

Agreed.  Penix is already 23 and if Cousins balls out and actually plays his 4 years, Penix will be 27 before he even see's the field.  LOL.

So? QBs are playing to an age range of 35-40 years old now.

That puts him at an 8-13 year trajectory. 

I also don’t think Cousins is here past 2026, which has a potential out for Atlanta.

[Tony The Wiz]

Obviously they loved his talent. Doesn't make sense of paying Cousins all that money with the signing. This is different than Montana and Young or Favre and Rodgers. Those players were there for years and the new guy was to succeed them. This is a player that never was in their organization and was starting a new career with them. And not to tell his agent was bizarre. That for Penix, I watch him so much with Indiana and then with Washington. He throws a great ball. He reminds me of Warren Moon. Both have big hearts and has a drive to win. And both could spin the ball nice. The difference is Penix has many injuries. Two ACL tears and two surgeries in both shoulders. So that is a lot before you start your NFL career. 

[bealeb319]

If penix ends up being good no one will care they reached for their guy. He isn't going to be their starter this year they want to try to develop him.

[rayzor]

5 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

If you feel that you have a chance to get a franchise quarterback you take it, regardless of current roster.

Atlanta will

• get two good years out of Cousins while Penix  learns

• assumes / hopes they won’t be picking in the top 10 after those couple of years

• avoids having to scramble in free agency, trades, or trade up in the draft down the road for a QB once Cousins is toast which is probably sooner than most think

It’s a smart move. Be proactive with the most important position in sports.

Agree with this.  Don't forget the Cousins tampering charges that will be enforced next season.  They could lose their first round pick.  Believing they won't be in position to get a QB this high again anytime soon.  Initially sounded insane but, like others have stated, it's the most important position on the team.

[Beerfish]

39 minutes ago, SomebodytoAnybody47 said:

If they believe he'll be the future, then it's worth it. 

The issue is he is an older QB and they are committed to cousins for like 4 years!

[Claymation]

If I'm Penix, I'm pissed.

The most important contract in football is the 2nd contract and they basically hindered him getting one. He battled back from injuries, transferring and now he is stuck behind Cousins for the minimum 2 years. Oh whoppie he is a top 10 pick. He wants to play, all the good ones want to play. This would be what the Jets would do.

[Bronx]

It worked for Green Bay.  Maybe they will trade Stafford on the last year of his contract to the NY Jets. 

[Wit]

One of those decisions was bad. That being said, if penix balls out no one will care.


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[slats]

5 minutes ago, Claymation said:

If I'm Penix, I'm pissed.

The most important contract in football is the 2nd contract and they basically hindered him getting one. He battled back from injuries, transferring and now he is stuck behind Cousins for the minimum 2 years. Oh whoppie he is a top 10 pick. He wants to play, all the good ones want to play. This would be what the Jets would do.

He went higher than expected. He’ll now sign a fully guaranteed four year contract for $22M or so, and get a chance to do what too few rookie QBs get to do; sit and learn. He may want to play now but he’s better off. 
 
It’s Cousins who has to be losing his ****. Penix is no help at all for his hopes of maybe winning a second playoff game in a career in which he’s already earned well over $300M. 

[Adoni Beast]

30 minutes ago, rayzor said:

Agree with this.  Don't forget the Cousins tampering charges that will be enforced next season.  They could lose their first round pick.  Believing they won't be in position to get a QB this high again anytime soon.  Initially sounded insane but, like others have stated, it's the most important position on the team.

Also with Cousins under contract for the next 4 years...if they feel Penix is ready then Cousins becomes trade bait.

[slats]

1 minute ago, Adoni Beast said:

Also with Cousins under contract for the next 4 years...if they feel Penix is ready then Cousins becomes trade bait.

No one will give them anything for the remainder of that contract. $45M in cash for each of the last two years. Cousins knows he’s likely to never see that $90M now. 

[UntouchableCrew]

It's a strange move both in terms of money and optics -- you're wasting a "cheap" rookie QB contract because you're paying Cousins loads of money which is especially strange because Penix is an older rookie. Sends a weird message to Cousins too when this is theoretically a team ready to win right now.

That said I'm not as down as most people. I'm never going to be that critical of stockpiling QB talent. Cousins will be 36 when the season starts and is coming off an Achilles. Unlike the Jets who are all in on Rodgers I don't blame them for thinking they should have their next guy ready to go.

[Adoni Beast]

5 minutes ago, slats said:

No one will give them anything for the remainder of that contract. $45M in cash for each of the last two years. Cousins knows he’s likely to never see that $90M now. 

Teams eat portions of player contracts as part of trades all the time. We just took half of Zach Wilson's remaining contract to get rid of him.

Thanks for playing.

[jeremy2020]

I think it's a great pick.. Why?

..because chaos and the lamentations of their women give me joy

 

[slats]

2 minutes ago, Adoni Beast said:

Teams eat portions of player contracts as part of trades all the time. We just took half of Zach Wilson's remaining contract to get rid of him.

Thanks for playing.

There’s nothing guaranteed in the last two years, so Atlanta won’t need to eat anything. They’ll just cut him and save the whole $90M. 

[JohnnyLV]

35 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The issue is he is an older QB and they are committed to cousins for like 4 years!

They are committed to two, and the fully guaranteed according to OTC is $90 million not $100 million. As a post June 1 cut he only counts $12.5 million against the cap for two years.  So their QB1 hit will be around $19 million for years 3 or 4 of Penix's contract and they have the option year and plenty of time to evaluate it. I think it is a brilliant move IF you are convinced Penix is a franchise guy and they do.

[JETSxWRATH™]

One of the hosts on the Bootleg Football stream theorized that they made the pick because they know they're about to get crushed for tampering with Cousins. They may not be in position to draft a potential franchise QB for a while, so they drafted someone in this draft

[RedBeardedSavage]

21 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

It's a strange move both in terms of money and optics -- you're wasting a "cheap" rookie QB contract because you're paying Cousins loads of money which is especially strange because Penix is an older rookie. Sends a weird message to Cousins too when this is theoretically a team ready to win right now.

That said I'm not as down as most people. I'm never going to be that critical of stockpiling QB talent. Cousins will be 36 when the season starts and is coming off an Achilles. Unlike the Jets who are all in on Rodgers I don't blame them for thinking they should have their next guy ready to go.

I agree with the first part - you do not enjoy as much of the rookie QB contract benefit and it's a total F U to Kirk.

If I were him I'd be kicking myself for leaving Minny, Jefferson and O'Connell.

Could've had Odunze there and that offense could've had the potential to be really special. 

Either way, if Penix ends up being good, it'll be worth it - but I don't think this was good business.